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Rusney Castillo (source: will sign for $72.5mm thru 2020)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 22, 2014 16:24:15 GMT -5
For reference:
Castillo AAV: 10.29M
Brett Gardner: 14M Jacoby Ellsbury: 21.86M Carlos Gomez: 8M Hunter Pence: 11.25M Curtis Granderson: 15M Yasiel Puig: 6M Adam Jones: 14.25M Melky Cabrera: 8M Yoenis Cespedes: 9M Jay Bruce: deal bought out his arb years, pays 12M, 12.5M, and 13M in club option year Alex Gordon: deal bought out his arb years, pays 12.5M next year and in club option year
Admittedly kind of a randomish cross-section of guys. Let me know if there should be someone in here - I'm trying to be fair and make an assessment of the deal.
At any rate, looking at this, this feels like the deal has the potential to be a good one if he pans out. Puig really looks like an extreme outlier and kind of an awful comp. Even Cespedes got more and he signed earlier.
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Post by mredsox89 on Aug 22, 2014 16:26:19 GMT -5
The Puig deal had a lot more risk, no? Didn't most reports say he likely needed seasoning in the minors? And even at that, he's been better than his initial expectations, which is what the deal should be compared to since both were relatively unknown players, compared to the typical FA
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Post by templeusox on Aug 22, 2014 16:29:50 GMT -5
The Puig deal had a lot more risk, no? Didn't most reports say he likely needed seasoning in the minors? And even at that, he's been better than his initial expectations, which is what the deal should be compared to since both were relatively unknown players, compared to the typical FA That's being kind. Most people thought Puig's contract was a reckless gamble by the Dodgers. Dodgers Sign Yasiel Puig To Puzzling Deallink
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 22, 2014 16:31:21 GMT -5
The Puig deal had a lot more risk, no? Didn't most reports say he likely needed seasoning in the minors? And even at that, he's been better than his initial expectations, which is what the deal should be compared to since both were relatively unknown players, compared to the typical FA All these Cuban deals have been risky. There were a ton of question marks surrounding everyone of these big name signings so far. There's a large amount of risk with Castillo too, but the reward could be awesome too. We just need to wait and see.
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Post by mredsox89 on Aug 22, 2014 16:42:32 GMT -5
The Puig deal had a lot more risk, no? Didn't most reports say he likely needed seasoning in the minors? And even at that, he's been better than his initial expectations, which is what the deal should be compared to since both were relatively unknown players, compared to the typical FA That's being kind. Most people thought Puig's contract was a reckless gamble by the Dodgers. Dodgers Sign Yasiel Puig To Puzzling DeallinkYea. Hatfield's tweet just reminded me of the outrage when that deal was announced. Now remembering the initial reports that thought much over 20/25 would be a massive overpay, and the Dodgers were just about laughed out of the discussion when they gave him $40.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 22, 2014 16:49:35 GMT -5
The most interesting part of this thread, are the sure-fire projections on who gets kept, and who gets traded. I think that will be a function of what offers get made - if there are any and if they're reasonable. I think the idea of a bloated outfield is a little weak also. Are we talking long-term or short-term? Last time I checked, Victorino still hasn't played but a handful of games this year, and he only has one more left on that contract, while Napoli is only around for one more year also. That's before we get to the existential question of how long Ortiz can carry the team around on his back (existential for the Sox by Guidas' reckoning, that is).
Alan Craig's foot issues limit him greatly, with 1B or DH appearing out of the mist in his future - that's if he isn't traded. Nava isn't getting any younger either. And anyone who thinks Cespedes belongs anywhere but left field at Fenway hasn't watched the games I've watched him play. It doesn't take much in the way of imagination to say that, by the end of next year, that "bloat" could be a little on the thin side.
What is great, from my perspective, is that the team is collecting talent - lots of it. That's part of any strategy for giving yourself as many options as possible. Remember how many posters were hammering home the idea that these contracts were unburdened by the potential loss of a draft choice? Where are all those happy voices?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,962
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 22, 2014 16:53:03 GMT -5
Eno Sarris @enosarris · Aug 20 Rusney Castillo hit .332/.401/.545 with 16 HR & 22 sB in 2013. Huzzah! The Davenport Translation on that is .237/.276/.390 9HR/15SB. Egads! Eno Sarris @enosarris · 3h Castillo for $12m/yr? His best year in Cuba translates to .220/.247/.362 in America & Davenport has been fairly money The Davenport Translations absolutely nailed Abreu, but they were woefully pessimistic about Cespedes and Puig. Cespedes has a career MLB .277 DT EqA, but his last three Cuban seasons were .237, .241, .243. Since Puig was signed as a prospect, we'll look at his Peak (age-adjusted) translations: Age 18, Cuba, .250 Age 20, Cuba, .263 Age 21, R+/A+, .296 (only 95 PA) Age 22, AA/MLB, .333 Age 23, MLB, .333 Castillo's best year was a .233 EqA, about 7 points below where Cespedes was perceived to be. If Castillo can put up a .277 - .007 = .270 EqA, that's a bit better than average for an MLB starting CF, and if he has plus defense, too, that's quite a good ballplayer, maybe 3.5 WAR, who should easily be worth the salary. Dave Cameron's guessing "close to 3 WAR." And here's a thought: I remain convinced that Heyward has to be on the Sox radar. A lefty bat who is desperately needed for lineup balance, a superb defensive RF, and probably undervalued by the Braves who remain a non-sabermetric oriented team. If the Sox offered Cespedes for Heyward, what else would be needed? You have to make up the difference in value for the one year before they both hit free agency (which the Braves are likely to think is smaller than it is), plus the equivalent of the draft pick that Heyward would have fetched but Cespedes cannot. Well, that's not a lot. In theory, it's just one guy you'd be very pleased to have grabbed in the supplemental first round. The Sox obviously have enough excess high-minors talent that they could add some of it to Cespedes, and get Heyward even if the Braves weren't sure they wanted to move him. I may continue that thought in the trade proposal forum.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 22, 2014 16:53:29 GMT -5
What is great, from my perspective, is that the team is collecting talent - lots of it. That's part of any strategy for giving yourself as many options as possible. Remember how many posters were hammering home the idea that these contracts were unburdened by the potential loss of a draft choice? Where are all those happy voices? Chris Hatfield actually just retweeted mine.
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ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,444
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Post by ianrs on Aug 22, 2014 16:59:41 GMT -5
Remember how many posters were hammering home the idea that these contracts were unburdened by the potential loss of a draft choice? Where are all those happy voices? Me! Pick me! In all seriousness though, I'm very happy with this signing. It makes me a little sad for JBJ, who will likely be traded or relegated to 4th OF duties. However, I think Castillo is an exciting player and a risk worth taking. I think he'll end up being worth more than the contract when its all said and done. And even if he isn't...well, its a small dent in the pockets of Henry, Werner, and Lucchino - and that's certainly okay with me. Very intrigued to see what Ben does with the roster this offseason. The organization is absolutely loaded with talent from top to bottom.
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Post by mredsox89 on Aug 22, 2014 17:11:26 GMT -5
The deal will also be evaluated based on what the Sox get for Mookie/JBJ if either or both get moved. If spending 70 on Castillo allows them to trade Betts for say Hamels, it could make this look better. If they just spent this $ straight on pitching, they likely spend it on someone that requires a draft pick, which even at a 2nd rounder, is still valuable
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Post by soxfanatic on Aug 22, 2014 17:14:15 GMT -5
@scottlauber: Castillo won't step right into #RedSox lineup once deal is done. Team realizes he needs "transition time" given hasn't played game in while
He hasn't played in Cuba for 1.5 years, so it makes sense I guess.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 22, 2014 17:14:24 GMT -5
coming from a wide open island atmosphere. Is that what Cuba feels like eh?
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Post by godot on Aug 22, 2014 17:33:05 GMT -5
The most interesting part of this thread, are the sure-fire projections on who gets kept, and who gets traded. I think that will be a function of what offers get made - if there are any and if they're reasonable. I think the idea of a bloated outfield is a little weak also. Are we talking long-term or short-term? Last time I checked, Victorino still hasn't played but a handful of games this year, and he only has one more left on that contract, while Napoli is only around for one more year also. That's before we get to the existential question of how long Ortiz can carry the team around on his back (existential for the Sox by Guidas' reckoning, that is). Alan Craig's foot issues limit him greatly, with 1B or DH appearing out of the mist in his future - that's if he isn't traded. Nava isn't getting any younger either. And anyone who thinks Cespedes belongs anywhere but left field at Fenway hasn't watched the games I've watched him play. It doesn't take much in the way of imagination to say that, by the end of next year, that "bloat" could be a little on the thin side. What is great, from my perspective, is that the team is collecting talent - lots of it. That's part of any strategy for giving yourself as many options as possible. Remember how many posters were hammering home the idea that these contracts were unburdened by the potential loss of a draft choice? Where are all those happy voices? Egad, you are sound pessimistic ( realistic) as me in your assessment of the Sox's outfield 'depth'. and present assests ![::)](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/eyesroll.png) There is hope for you after all. As far as Castillo, I can't complain. It is just JH opening up his check book and trying for the brass ring. Can see why some people are skeptical, believing they are trying to make up for losing the others. In some ways, they are right, but at least with Abreu seems like they recognized his talent but got underbid. Hopefully, they see something with Castillo but this time did not want to be lose because of holding back on the dollars. They are also dealing from weakness in that they do not have any outfield prospects on the horizon. (Bradley and Betts may not be ready for prime time). So I am on record as shutting up if he fails, but that has not stop me in the past. By the way Eric never commented on how wrong he was about Abreu ![(:))](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/ninja.png) - so much for stats.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 22, 2014 17:56:03 GMT -5
Some random thoughts:
(1) This signing doesn't mean the Red Sox won't be pursuing Giancarlo Stanton. He wasn't going to be traded this off-season (the PR would be a disaster for Miami), and, since Cespedes and Victorino are free agents after next year, there's nothing to stop the Red Sox from making an offer at the trade deadline (if he's available) or after the 2015 season. (I still think trading 2 or 3 top prospects AND committing approximately 1/6 of the team's payroll to a single player, even Stanton, would be a mistake, but that's a topic for another thread).
(2) The Red Sox don't have any players likely to put up 5 or 6 WAR next year. In fact, I'm not sure they have anyone likely to put up 4 WAR. It's going to be very hard to compete for a championship without at least a couple such players. On the other hand, there are probably enough 2.5 to 3.5 WAR players to enable them to compete for a wild card, especially now that there are two of them.
(3) Articles praising the value of AAA time in player development have emerged from three different sources in 24 hours; I doubt it's a coincidence. I suspect someone from the FO is socializing the concept in preparation for Betts, Bradley and perhaps even Bogaerts starting the year in Pawtucket.
(4) I'm not sure the Red Sox can afford to trade Betts this off-season (although they do appear to be showcasing him). If it turns out that Castillo can't hit, what's plan B?
(5) Brock Holt: While I think he's ultimately a utility player (albeit a very valuable utility player), I think after what he's done this year, you kind of have to find a spot for him (3B?)
(6) There is a lot of stuff in Pawtucket next year; someone has to get traded.
I can see a scenario in which the Red Sox (1) field a lineup of Vazquez/Ross, Napoli, Pedroia, Holt/Middlebrooks, Craig, Castillo, Cespedes and Ortiz, (2) hold onto their four elite prospects/under 25 players (Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Owens), (3) add a starting pitcher or two (Lester? Schwerzer?), (4) re-sign Uehara and Andrew Miller and (5) either go with Bogaerts at short or trade for a reasonable stop-gap.
This would enable them to compete for wild card (although it's hard to see them win the division), and still have the young talent to make a run at Stanton before the 2016 season or try to build around Bogaerts, Betts and Swihart.
This strategy would seem to mirror what they did in 2013.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 22, 2014 19:18:00 GMT -5
Forgive me, but I have to laugh at the idea that you can showcase a 21 year old with less than a few hundred ML at bats. I'm not sure why so many posters are convinced the Sox would sell low on their talent. Henry made his living valuing assets after all. The tough part is always selling high.
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Post by tonyc on Aug 22, 2014 19:55:35 GMT -5
Thank you Oregon! Granted there are lots of unknowns with both Castillo and Betts currently, but it's quite possible Betts' ceiling may exceed the Cubans and for sure trading him now as was often suggested here would be selling low on a blue chip prospect- something that was not done at the trade deadline for either Lester or Price. Unless blown away, I'd hang onto him, trade others (and for that matter on the rule 5 thread would try to hang onto high ceiling types like Coyle, and even Ramos if possible).
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Post by jdb on Aug 22, 2014 20:14:58 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Aug 22, 2014 21:20:36 GMT -5
One random thought: This absolutely does not mean that we're definitely trading Betts. Not even close.
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 22, 2014 21:29:52 GMT -5
One random thought: This absolutely does not mean that we're definitely trading Betts. Not even close. I'm not saying yes and I'm not saying no on Betts but in recent trades buying low seems to be there MO so this off season selling high, I assume, would be, too. Like....Norm I think....said, they aren't selling low on anybody I don't think either.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 22, 2014 21:56:50 GMT -5
Wholly agree. Guys like Betts are not getting showcased here at the end for an off season trade. However I think some who are still getting playing time, like Middlebrooks are and will be sold for pennies on the dollar. Wouldn't shock me to see JBJ moved either, but think him could be a mistake. He has a use as a 4th OF at the very least.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 22, 2014 22:32:59 GMT -5
I've had a growing sense that the Sox were going to come away with Castillo. All I can say is I hope they're right about him.
It seems to me that a hopeful realistic projection of him would be Shane Victorino from about 5 years ago or so (or even 2013).
It seems to me that Castillo won't have enough power to be a middle of the order hitter which is something the Sox need and it seems to me that despite his blazing speed, he might not be disciplined enough of a hitter to lead off, which is something the Sox need.
He could certainly be a useful player, and the money won't bankrupt them. Wish the Sox had gone this high for Abreu last October. At first I couldn't fault them because of the timing, but if they were talking about him for 3b, they could have signed him and spun it that way, even during the Series.
Anyways, one of my biggest concerns is now the Sox will most likely deal Betts, I would suspect, in a Cole Hamels type deal, which I would prefer they not do. I do feel that Betts will ultimately be the best possibility for the Sox to have a dynamic leadoff hitter. Now unless there are injuries he's blocked.
With Victorino and Craig's medical history, Betts could be unblocked. I like the speed of a Cespedes/Betts/Castillo alignment, and if Cespedes is indeed a rental, that would open up a spot for Betts.
As much as I'd like to, I just can't buy a Betts at SS or 3b scenario.
It seems to me another reason that Betts at 3b won't work is because the Sox will need another LH bat somewhere in the lineup. Obviously Holt is the most obvious candidate as Cecchini still has to prove himself at AAA, but the Sox could look for a LH 3b rental for 2015.
Meanwhile, I will hope that the Red Sox are getting what they think they're getting in Castillo.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 22, 2014 22:43:56 GMT -5
You make a fine point. Chase headley, if Hendricks was to possibly look for an opportunity to sign a 1y deal could look to Cherrington and vice versa. Headley's 2014 season couldn't have been worse and he has been solid, up until now.
Maybe sign a Boras type pillow deal and with Boston? I'd take him on the same terms they had Beltre at(9m).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 22, 2014 22:48:41 GMT -5
You make a fine point. Chase headley, if Hendricks was to possibly look for an opportunity to sign a 1y deal could look to Cherrington and vice versa. Headley's 2014 season couldn't have been worse and he has been solid, up until now. Maybe sign a Boras type pillow deal and with Boston? I'd take him on the same terms they had Beltre at(9m). Maybe. I mean they are so righthanded. You'd think they need a good lefty bat in the middle of the order to help balance out the lineup. Where else could you put that lefty bat?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 23, 2014 5:47:11 GMT -5
Castillo has plus-plus speed, according to multiple teams that worked him out privately, able to navigate 60 yards in less than 6.5 seconds, according to one evaluator. "He's a flyer," the evaluator said. There's some debate about the potency of Rusney Castillo's bat, but his speed is indubitably a plus.
He has plus-plus power, in the view of the Red Sox. "He's a free swinger who's not going to walk a lot, a pull hitter who will hit them so far over the Monster it will be crazy," said the evaluator. "And he has the power to reach the bullpens in right field."
That sentiment is not shared by every club that scouted him.
"We think he can hit 15 to 20 home runs, which these days may be plus power," said a talent evaluator for another club that had keen interest in him, "but we don't see him having 30-homer power. Hey, we could be wrong."
forum.soxprospects.com/thread/2101/rusney-castillo-source-sign-2020?page=19
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 23, 2014 9:24:21 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal ?@ken_Rosenthal 43m Source: Castillo deal with #RedSox, once official, will allow him to opt out after 2019 season, one year before his contract expires.
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