|
|
Post by jmei on Jan 7, 2015 13:01:55 GMT -5
I don't think you can take that study and apply it to whether a team should sign a given player for a given dollar amount. What the study shows is the relative success rates of players based on where and if they're ranked on BA's Top 100. What it does not show is the relative success rate of a player of a particular pedigree. You can't just take a player in the top 10 in a given year and peg a certain percentage chance of his being a success based on this kind of broad study. Not all players are created equal, not all sets of top 100 prospects are created equal, and not every player is ranked a given place for the same reason. Prospect evaluation requires case-by-case analysis. Determining whether Moncada specifically is worth a given dollar amount requires scouting the actual player and evaluating him. Maybe, by doing that, you could come up with the kind of percentages that you're using here and then make a cost-benefit analysis. Yes, obviously a team should do much more than the back-of-the-envelope math we're resorting to in this thread. But none of us will get to scout Moncada, and even though public scouting reports have gotten better of late, it's still unlikely that there's going to be any public scouting reports with the degree of detail necessary to properly evaluate him (not to mention that very few of us has the background/experience to properly take a scouting report and project a likely career path with any degree of certainty). If we're trying to answer the question of how much Moncada is worth, the above analysis is frankly one of the few ones that really adds any nuance to the conversation. Yes, it's flawed, but so are all public (and most proprietary) methods of player evaluation, and the alternative is, what, throwing up our hands and waiting for him to sign? Make wild unsubstantiated declarations that he's worth it or not worth it? I also think the methodology holds up better than you're giving it credit for. What the prospect valuation studies do is to attempt to derive the average quantitative value of prospects at each tier of the scouting consensus. No, not all top 10/50/100 prospects are created equal, but they're reasonably similar year-to-year, and using BA rankings as a proxy for pedigree makes a good deal of sense for me. You could also look at hitters drafted at the top of the draft, like jimoh does, but that's imperfect as well (e.g., he's older and has played against better competition than the average HS draftee) and the same objections would apply. Importantly, with studies like this, what you lose in nuance you gain in sample size. I'd much rather trust this sort of analysis than the alternative, which is probably slapping mostly-arbitrary (and thus vulnerable to cherrypicking) comps on him (e.g., Puig or Soler or Harper, or Delmon Young or similar busts). |
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Jan 8, 2015 17:13:02 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel ?@kileymcd 6 min.
Yes. NYY & BOS are the heavy favorites. RT @norbertopaulino Have you heard anything on if the Red Sox are indeed in on Moncada?
Good on ya Norberto!
|
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Jan 8, 2015 19:53:42 GMT -5
Lol Twitter didn't send me any notifications so I ended up seeing it here.
Can't wait for the guy to be cleared so we can start the real waiting game.
|
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Jan 9, 2015 8:26:09 GMT -5
You took the words out of my mouth. Can we clear this guy yet? What a difference if cleared now he goes to Sox or Yankees , or after July were both out.
The Yankees already have committed a ton of money this year. I guess after July 2nd, Vlad's kid is gonna get some big money.
|
|
|
|
Post by gatorgreenwell on Jan 9, 2015 9:25:27 GMT -5
So we have until June 15th, which is when the 2015-2016 intl signing period starts. If he gets cleared after that, we'd only have $300k. Sooner the better for him getting cleared. Lets just hope we make it happen.
|
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Jan 9, 2015 13:45:21 GMT -5
Jesse Sanchez ?@jessesanchezmlb 25 min.
Multiple sources tell me Yoan Moncada is still waiting on OFAC clearance. Private workouts expected this month. #Cuba
|
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 13, 2015 21:26:58 GMT -5
Sounds like the Dodgers are going to jump into the Moncada bidding (if and when he is cleared).
Jim Bowden @jimbowden_ESPN
The most interesting bidding war this off-season won't be Lester, or Scherzer but rather Cuban INF Yoan Moncada with #Dodgers #Yankees
Jesse Sanchez @jessesanchezmlb
Source: #Dodgers aggressively pursued Yoan Lopez but came up short. Will now shift attention to OF Yoan Moncada. Expect a private workout.
|
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jan 14, 2015 12:19:24 GMT -5
Hypothetically, could Moncada sign with an independent league to skirt the IFA rules? It's kind of a raw deal for him that he'll get only 50% of whatever amount of money the team that signs him for. There'd be some injury risk I guess, but the upside is something like $40 million in his pocket.
|
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 14, 2015 12:29:45 GMT -5
Hypothetically, could Moncada sign with an independent league to skirt the IFA rules? It's kind of a raw deal for him that he'll get only 50% of whatever amount of money the team that signs him for. There'd be some injury risk I guess, but the upside is something like $40 million in his pocket. Interesting question. Not sure what his handlers would think/want/force. |
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 14, 2015 12:53:04 GMT -5
Hypothetically, could Moncada sign with an independent league to skirt the IFA rules? It's kind of a raw deal for him that he'll get only 50% of whatever amount of money the team that signs him for. There'd be some injury risk I guess, but the upside is something like $40 million in his pocket. Interesting question. Not sure what his handlers would think/want/force. Given the delicate state of renewed US-Cuban relations, it's doubtful that sort of gaming of the system would go on at this point. I'm sure it will cross the minds of a few people involved in this, but I think they'll stay away from that third rail. MLB is going to have to step up and develop some sort of plan. Given the distortions they've introduced into the market for foreign players, that needs to include a well-defined compensation policy for all parties, one that doesn't have the complexity of the current regime. As often happens, the evolving payments are a larger set of moving parts. I guess this is another facet of globalization. |
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jan 14, 2015 13:01:58 GMT -5
I guess, but the Cuban gvt would probably prefer it (operating under the assumption that they are taking an annual cut rather than just a piece of the signing bonus), and it doesn't seem like the sort of battle the U.S. would wan to step into. I'm guessing that MLB isn't going to Congress to say "hey, our overly complex monopolistic collective bargaining agreement sorta backfired, can you punish Cuba?"
|
|
|
|
Post by burythehammer on Jan 14, 2015 13:54:15 GMT -5
Sounds like the Dodgers are going to jump into the Moncada bidding (if and when he is cleared). Jim Bowden @jimbowden_ESPN The most interesting bidding war this off-season won't be Lester, or Scherzer but rather Cuban INF Yoan Moncada with #Dodgers #Yankees Jesse Sanchez @jessesanchezmlb Source: #Dodgers aggressively pursued Yoan Lopez but came up short. Will now shift attention to OF Yoan Moncada. Expect a private workout. Interesting that Bowden specifically says "this offseason." I take everything he says with a Prince Fielder sized grain of salt but I wonder if that was intentional or just Cafardo-style ignorance. |
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 15, 2015 1:01:33 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Jan 15, 2015 11:51:19 GMT -5
This is the reason they went over the allotment. They need to get this done. Unless the kid has his heart on NY or LA.
|
|
|
|
Post by gatorgreenwell on Jan 15, 2015 14:13:08 GMT -5
This is the reason they went over the allotment. They need to get this done. Unless the kid has his heart on NY or LA. Totally agree. Need him. |
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jan 15, 2015 14:18:31 GMT -5
This is the reason they went over the allotment. They need to get this done. Unless the kid has his heart on NY or LA. Totally agree. Need him. I think everyone here badly, badly wants Moncada. Honestly, with the Dodgers openly in play, I think our chances just took a hit of sorts. They've been uber aggressive in the Cuban market and have been uber aggressive with their spending in general. If they're not concerned with the subsequent spending period penalties (which it seems they're not), they may be tough to beat. On the bright side, I'd rather loss a bidding war to the Dodgers than the Yankees. |
|
|
|
Post by burythehammer on Jan 15, 2015 15:56:58 GMT -5
I think we will end up with him if our evaluation of him exceeds everyone else's. The teams we're talking about are rich, but they're smart too. Farhadi himself alludes to not going past their evaluation of his talent in terms of a bid. My guess is the same goes for NY and us.
|
|
|
|
Post by gatorgreenwell on Jan 16, 2015 11:20:51 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by burythehammer on Jan 16, 2015 11:52:58 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 16, 2015 12:32:46 GMT -5
Also, so nobody else gets confused like I briefly was, the list of Badler's top 15 position player prospects that is published here is in alphabetical order. |
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 16, 2015 13:39:13 GMT -5
I guess, but the Cuban gvt would probably prefer it (operating under the assumption that they are taking an annual cut rather than just a piece of the signing bonus), and it doesn't seem like the sort of battle the U.S. would wan to step into. I'm guessing that MLB isn't going to Congress to say "hey, our overly complex monopolistic collective bargaining agreement sorta backfired, can you punish Cuba?" I should have been clearer. The second statement was separate from the idea of gaming the system. I know it's a reflection of the way the game has gone international, but the large collection of rules MLB has for dealing with players from Latin American, Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese baseball, could benefit from standardization at some point. That's only going to get more complicated with Cuban players being thrown into the mix. Maybe the financial weight MLB carries means they don't have to, at least for now, but they might want to get ahead of the curve. Perhaps they already are? Just to look at one small piece of this, here's BP's take on the rules that were introduced for the training academies in the DR. There's got to be a better way to do this, one that benefits the countries involved and the players, as well as the owners. |
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jan 16, 2015 13:46:52 GMT -5
Also, so nobody else gets confused like I briefly was, the list of Badler's top 15 position player prospects that is published here is in alphabetical order. Sidenote: the link indicates that Swihart is going to make BA's top 20 overall prospects (though I think most folks expected him to be there) and be their highest-ranked catcher (I don't see Schwarber as a catcher). |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 16, 2015 14:13:25 GMT -5
Also, so nobody else gets confused like I briefly was, the list of Badler's top 15 position player prospects that is published here is in alphabetical order. Sidenote: the link indicates that Swihart is going to make BA's top 20 overall prospects (though I think most folks expected him to be there) and be their highest-ranked catcher (I don't see Schwarber as a catcher). Well, technically just Badler's top 20. |
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 16, 2015 14:13:37 GMT -5
Also, so nobody else gets confused like I briefly was, the list of Badler's top 15 position player prospects that is published here is in alphabetical order. Sidenote: the link indicates that Swihart is going to make BA's top 20 overall prospects (though I think most folks expected him to be there) and be their highest-ranked catcher (I don't see Schwarber as a catcher). I noticed that, but do you think there are only about 4-5 pitchers in top 20? |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 16, 2015 14:15:18 GMT -5
Sidenote: the link indicates that Swihart is going to make BA's top 20 overall prospects (though I think most folks expected him to be there) and be their highest-ranked catcher (I don't see Schwarber as a catcher). I noticed that, but do you think there are only about 4-5 pitchers in top 20? There are in Badler's apparently. TINSTAAPP baby. |
|
