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Post by soxfan06 on Feb 24, 2015 21:18:27 GMT -5
Also, how awesome is it that we are adding Moancada...but we also have the 7th pick in the draft.
lol makes me giggle.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 24, 2015 21:22:23 GMT -5
A lot of the scenarios being thrown out there on this board and in press stories casually say that Panda can move to DH or 1B if the left side of the IF gets too crowded. He had an OPS-plus of 111 last year. The average DH was 110 and the average 1B was 116. Unless Panda turns around the decline his production has shown the last two years, he is neither a standout DH or 1B. We'd be paying $19.5 million a year for basically an average offensive player. They would never have offered him that money if they felt he would merely hit as he did with SF. They certainly have analyzed the impact of the change in home ballparks in great detail. They may well have looked into the impact of playing on the East coast and doing most of his travel within the same time zone or one removed, versus playing on the West and doing most of his travel three or two time zones distant. My quick little study suggested that his road numbers may jump way up because of that. And has been noted, he both has a track record of hitting elite pitchers better than expected given his overall numbers, and very much fits the profile of players that do, thus making him especially valuable in the post-season. (That there are real such differences is something I've suspected for years and was one of the things I wanted to study for the Sox; subsequently (SABR President) Vince Gennaro looked into it and verified that there are.) The bottom line is that I think they were confident that he'd still be a good to very good MLB 1B at the end of his contract -- rather like Napoli, in fact. In the meantime, if they're right about his adaptation to the park and East coast, he could accrue a lot of excess value in his first few years here. |
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Post by kman22 on Feb 24, 2015 21:23:33 GMT -5
A lot of the scenarios being thrown out there on this board and in press stories casually say that Panda can move to DH or 1B if the left side of the IF gets too crowded. He had an OPS-plus of 111 last year. The average DH was 110 and the average 1B was 116. Unless Panda turns around the decline his production has shown the last two years, he is neither a standout DH or 1B. We'd be paying $19.5 million a year for basically an average offensive player. But also, isn't he generally regarded as a strong defender at 3B? |
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Feb 24, 2015 22:37:05 GMT -5
A lot of the scenarios being thrown out there on this board and in press stories casually say that Panda can move to DH or 1B if the left side of the IF gets too crowded. He had an OPS-plus of 111 last year. The average DH was 110 and the average 1B was 116. Unless Panda turns around the decline his production has shown the last two years, he is neither a standout DH or 1B. We'd be paying $19.5 million a year for basically an average offensive player. They would never have offered him that money if they felt he would merely hit as he did with SF. They certainly have analyzed the impact of the change in home ballparks in great detail. They may well have looked into the impact of playing on the East coast and doing most of his travel within the same time zone or one removed, versus playing on the West and doing most of his travel three or two time zones distant. My quick little study suggested that his road numbers may jump way up because of that. And has been noted, he both has a track record of hitting elite pitchers better than expected given his overall numbers, and very much fits the profile of players that do, thus making him especially valuable in the post-season. (That there are real such differences is something I've suspected for years and was one of the things I wanted to study for the Sox; subsequently (SABR President) Vince Gennaro looked into it and verified that there are.) The bottom line is that I think they were confident that he'd still be a good to very good MLB 1B at the end of his contract -- rather like Napoli, in fact. In the meantime, if they're right about his adaptation to the park and East coast, he could accrue a lot of excess value in his first few years here. Pardon my bias, but I don't like the idea of relatively short guys playing 1B. I want the extra half foot of reach. I wasn't thrilled with the idea of Nava at 1B, and I'm going to be equally disconcerted with the idea of Panda over there. Heck, I'm working with my grandson to play 1B on our junior league team, because he's limited by the fact that he's LH and he's already taller than Panda at age 14. Too bad he can't hit like him!!! |
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Post by soxfan06 on Feb 24, 2015 23:36:15 GMT -5
They would never have offered him that money if they felt he would merely hit as he did with SF. They certainly have analyzed the impact of the change in home ballparks in great detail. They may well have looked into the impact of playing on the East coast and doing most of his travel within the same time zone or one removed, versus playing on the West and doing most of his travel three or two time zones distant. My quick little study suggested that his road numbers may jump way up because of that. And has been noted, he both has a track record of hitting elite pitchers better than expected given his overall numbers, and very much fits the profile of players that do, thus making him especially valuable in the post-season. (That there are real such differences is something I've suspected for years and was one of the things I wanted to study for the Sox; subsequently (SABR President) Vince Gennaro looked into it and verified that there are.) The bottom line is that I think they were confident that he'd still be a good to very good MLB 1B at the end of his contract -- rather like Napoli, in fact. In the meantime, if they're right about his adaptation to the park and East coast, he could accrue a lot of excess value in his first few years here. Pardon my bias, but I don't like the idea of relatively short guys playing 1B. I want the extra half foot of reach. I wasn't thrilled with the idea of Nava at 1B, and I'm going to be equally disconcerted with the idea of Panda over there. Heck, I'm working with my grandson to play 1B on our junior league team, because he's limited by the fact that he's LH and he's already taller than Panda at age 14. Too bad he can't hit like him!!! Yeah it really would suck to go from the 6'0" Mike Napoli to the 5'11" Pablo Sandoval. How would we survive? |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 25, 2015 9:44:04 GMT -5
A lot of the scenarios being thrown out there on this board and in press stories casually say that Panda can move to DH or 1B if the left side of the IF gets too crowded. He had an OPS-plus of 111 last year. The average DH was 110 and the average 1B was 116. Unless Panda turns around the decline his production has shown the last two years, he is neither a standout DH or 1B. We'd be paying $19.5 million a year for basically an average offensive player. They would never have offered him that money if they felt he would merely hit as he did with SF. They certainly have analyzed the impact of the change in home ballparks in great detail. They may well have looked into the impact of playing on the East coast and doing most of his travel within the same time zone or one removed, versus playing on the West and doing most of his travel three or two time zones distant. My quick little study suggested that his road numbers may jump way up because of that. And has been noted, he both has a track record of hitting elite pitchers better than expected given his overall numbers, and very much fits the profile of players that do, thus making him especially valuable in the post-season. (That there are real such differences is something I've suspected for years and was one of the things I wanted to study for the Sox; subsequently (SABR President) Vince Gennaro looked into it and verified that there are.) The bottom line is that I think they were confident that he'd still be a good to very good MLB 1B at the end of his contract -- rather like Napoli, in fact. In the meantime, if they're right about his adaptation to the park and East coast, he could accrue a lot of excess value in his first few years here. Two other factors which should bode well for Panda, First, he's in a better lineup so he should see more situational pitches and second, of the 20 projected AL East opponent starters, Chen Sabbathia Capuano Smyly Buehrle are the only lefties, not very formidable. |
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Post by jmei on Feb 25, 2015 10:20:59 GMT -5
Five lefties out of twenty starters is not that different from the league-average (about 25-30% of innings are thrown by lefties in any given year), and I don't think the five specific names are that different from a representative sample of lefties in the league (Smyly, Chen, and Buehrle aren't elite, but they're all above-average).
No need to argue this in-depth, but I'll also note that lineup protection is generally a disfavored thesis in SABR circles, and that the Giants have been a pretty good offense in recent years on a park-adjusted basis (10th in wRC+ last year and 11th in 2013, with Sandoval usually hitting in front of guys like Posey or Morse or Pence who pretty good hitters).
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 25, 2015 11:10:46 GMT -5
Park adjustments are generic, based on overall statistics no matter where a batter's tendencies lie. When they say "swing made for Fenway", they mean that it's a swing that outperforms typical park adjustments. Fenway has a pretty extreme difference between hitting fly balls to RF vs. hitting to LF. But the park factors average that out. I imagine Sandoval takes advantage of Fenway a bit more than someone like Napoli.
For me, it's not unreasonable to expect past Napoli-like production from Sandoval, though I'm also hoping Napoli makes a jump after his surgery.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 25, 2015 11:12:20 GMT -5
Five lefties out of twenty starters is not that different from the league-average (about 25-30% of innings are thrown by lefties in any given year), and I don't think the five specific names are that different from a representative sample of lefties in the league (Smyly, Chen, and Buehrle aren't elite, but they're all above-average). No need to argue this in-depth, but I'll also note that lineup protection is generally a disfavored thesis in SABR circles, and that the Giants have been a pretty good offense in recent years on a park-adjusted basis (10th in wRC+ last year and 11th in 2013, with Sandoval usually hitting in front of guys like Posey or Morse or Pence who pretty good hitters). Who do you think he'd prefer to face, those or the lefties he faced last year: Miley Kershaw Ryu Del La Rosa Matzek Also note that I said situational pitches which refers to the batters in front. Lineup protection refers to the batters behind. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Feb 25, 2015 13:12:55 GMT -5
Now that he is signed, could someone explain to me why he does not profile defensively as a SS? About everything you read in his scouting report about his tools and physicality would suggest he could handle SS, fast twitch player with a good arm, about the right size, with great speed. I'm not trying to say he should be a SS, because I have not seen him (and you probably have not either!) nor would I be qualified to scout him, just trying to map his profile to his position. I would think the quick burst and good speed would play more to a SS than 2B/3B. If the question is his glovework/footwork, well you still need a really good glove to play 3B, and 2B still has to twist double plays.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 25, 2015 13:30:43 GMT -5
Now that he is signed, could someone explain to me why he does not profile defensively as a SS? About everything you read in his scouting report about his tools and physicality would suggest he could handle SS, fast twitch player with a good arm, about the right size, with great speed. I'm not trying to say he should be a SS, because I have not seen him (and you probably have not either!) nor would I be qualified to scout him, just trying to map his profile to his position. I would think the quick burst and good speed would play more to a SS than 2B/3B. If the question is his glovework/footwork, well you still need a really good glove to play 3B, and 2B still has to twist double plays. He's probably going to settle in with Hanley Ramirez' body type. The only reason why Hanley wasn't moved off SS 6-7 years ago is because he refused. It's pretty hard to be that big and muscular and be as nimble as a shortstop needs to be. He's fast now, but will slow down as he ages and gets bigger. He's definitely athletic, but not an athletic freak like Shaq Thompson. Of course all of that is going by what I've read. Guess that's obvious. |
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Post by bookiemetts on Feb 25, 2015 13:42:57 GMT -5
Now that he is signed, could someone explain to me why he does not profile defensively as a SS? About everything you read in his scouting report about his tools and physicality would suggest he could handle SS, fast twitch player with a good arm, about the right size, with great speed. I'm not trying to say he should be a SS, because I have not seen him (and you probably have not either!) nor would I be qualified to scout him, just trying to map his profile to his position. I would think the quick burst and good speed would play more to a SS than 2B/3B. If the question is his glovework/footwork, well you still need a really good glove to play 3B, and 2B still has to twist double plays. Now I am going to go ahead and agree that we won't really know for sure until we get a good look at his fielding and the scouts certainly know a lot more about this than I do. However, if you take a look at the video up on csnne.com of him arriving at ft. Meyers and some of the other pictures of him, the guy is 19 years old and is built like Hanley ramirez is now and you don't really see many short stops with that body type. Of course that doesn't mean he can't play the position. Edit: was stuck in mobile for a while and didn't see jimeds post lol |
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Post by sammo420 on Feb 25, 2015 14:28:19 GMT -5
Fantastic move by Cherington. I wonder if there are any chairs being thrown in Cashman's office right now. Raise your hand if you get this Jose Contreras/Theo Epstein reference? |
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 25, 2015 15:03:33 GMT -5
Fantastic move by Cherington. I wonder if there are any chairs being thrown in Cashman's office right now. Raise your hand if you get this Jose Contreras/Theo Epstein reference? Theo broke a door and window I think. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 25, 2015 16:03:38 GMT -5
...His agent, Alan Nero, says that he would command $100 million if he were Cuban. I love that kind of talk. Pointing to Cuban prospects, and what they're getting to sign, as the new normal? Lots of agents are going to be jumping on this bus, I believe. Careful not to muss their hair or wrinkle their suits. |
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 25, 2015 16:39:18 GMT -5
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Post by templeusox on Feb 25, 2015 18:29:24 GMT -5
Carson Cistulli is so awful. That's more of a general comment rather than specific to that particular byte.
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Post by m1keyboots on Feb 26, 2015 0:25:33 GMT -5
OK! I'm going to put away my bullwhip, then. Seriously, you're not the only one who hadn't made the connection. This is a different beast, and you'll want to check out what John Henry said about the deal. He knows a little about risk and reward and he decided this was a good place to put his money. I can't argue with his logic. Consider me slightly more informed.  |
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Post by m1keyboots on Feb 26, 2015 0:36:44 GMT -5
Folks, a few paragraphs in long posts makes them much easier to read. And the composition classes I took to get my degree make it easier to convert people to my (later recanted ) opinion New paragraph To contribute to this thread, I'll say that I wonder if the Sox are hoping for a big year out of Hanley or Panda. In order to trade them and open up room. Hanley especially. New paragraph If Hanley rakes, his contract looks a but more friendly, and opens up room for Betts/Moncada, even role players that may still be around (nava). Would anyone be devastated to see hanram go after a good year dare I say half year (as opposed to beltre) I'm not familiar with the no-trade clauses but he seems like a mercenary type mentality player. Also as high on Sandoval being that HUGE CORNER IF OR DH LEFTY bat people are ready to pencil him in as now. These guys could really be pieces for us New paragraph I see hanram and panda in the win now mode, but much more expendable otherwise |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 26, 2015 0:52:55 GMT -5
The team has a lot of flexibility. The upside for Ramirez and Sandoval is certainly part of that. I think they'll keep all the options open. If they do get good years from those guys, and they've got talent knocking on the door, those options only expand. I'm sure they'd be more than happy to have that problem.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 26, 2015 10:33:12 GMT -5
That's funny, how I found soxprospects Dale Arnold and Bob Newmyer had a segment on WEEI list your Three favorite sport websites you visit a lot. Dale had this site in his top Three. That explain why Felger knows nothing about redsox prospects and Dale Arnold does. There is a reason why Gammons flipped out on Felger back in the day. The guy does No homework on baseball and does not really know the game. Nor does Felger pretend to. It's not a big deal or make someone stupid. He just asks questions and makes general comments if you actually listen to him. He freely admits he doesn't know and doesn't care to. He actually does a great job talking about or leading a discussion on such things bc he's not jaded by prospect love like so many are (here and other places) that they can lose focus on what maybe best for the parent club on a case by case basis. He's very good at what he does and he does just make stuff up to pretend he knows what he's saying when he doesn't like most others do. |
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 26, 2015 10:36:10 GMT -5
There is a reason why Gammons flipped out on Felger back in the day. The guy does No homework on baseball and does not really know the game. Nor does Felger pretend to. It's not a big deal or make someone stupid. He just asks questions and makes general comments if you actually listen to him. He freely admits he doesn't know and doesn't care to. He actually does a great job talking about or leading a discussion on such things bc he's not jaded by prospect love like so many are (here and other places) that they can lose focus on what maybe best for the parent club on a case by case basis. He's very good at what he does and he does just make stuff up to pretend he knows what he's saying when he doesn't like most others do. In other words, he's not biased by knowledge? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 26, 2015 10:38:15 GMT -5
A lot of the scenarios being thrown out there on this board and in press stories casually say that Panda can move to DH or 1B if the left side of the IF gets too crowded. He had an OPS-plus of 111 last year. The average DH was 110 and the average 1B was 116. Unless Panda turns around the decline his production has shown the last two years, he is neither a standout DH or 1B. We'd be paying $19.5 million a year for basically an average offensive player. Have you taken a look at the production of DHs not named Papi? It's awful.... Post steroid era DH production isn't what it used to be. We are just spoiled. It snow being used by a lot of teams to rotate and rest guys. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 26, 2015 10:45:43 GMT -5
Nor does Felger pretend to. It's not a big deal or make someone stupid. He just asks questions and makes general comments if you actually listen to him. He freely admits he doesn't know and doesn't care to. He actually does a great job talking about or leading a discussion on such things bc he's not jaded by prospect love like so many are (here and other places) that they can lose focus on what maybe best for the parent club on a case by case basis. He's very good at what he does and he does just make stuff up to pretend he knows what he's saying when he doesn't like most others do. In other words, he's not biased by knowledge? No he has plenty of knowledge on how few times guys pan out versus their projections. What he doesn't have is information on each guys scouting reports and he doesn't pretend to, nor does he make claims and assertions that would require him to know. People can't know everything and it's asinine to say he doesn't do his homework, like he's lazy at his job just because he's not knowledgable about the farm system. He doesn't need to be. He does plenty of "homework" in other areas and is very well prepared for his show. To state otherwise, just because he's not up on the same stuff you or I are is ignorant at best. It's not a Sox prospect show. |
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Post by southpaw12014 on Feb 26, 2015 11:11:06 GMT -5
Completely random thought on Moncada - Him and Xander look like they can be brothers? They actually look alike? just thought it was funny....
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