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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 18, 2015 12:34:32 GMT -5
,,, I do agree they value their players wrong and that can be said for the last 10-15 years. From this year's BP Annual: So they did have success more recently than that. They seem, however, not to have picked up on the changes inherent in the CBA that was signed in 2011. That's something that was discussed extensively on this board. It was no secret that there would probably be a greater valuing of draftees given the two-edged sword in that CBA: - the emphasis placed on greatly restricting the money pool for new talent
- the costs in lost draft choices associated with going over on that pool
So a carrot - cheap pricing for young talent, and a stick - lose access to that discount pricing if you blow through your cap. Young talent becomes the coin of the realm. That seems to have escaped them. Next, the law of unintended consequences kicks in: The exclamation point on the stale business plan is starker:You can probably guess the context for that discussion, though the author is careful not to stick the label of PED-players on NY. They certainly weren't the only ones riding that horse. There's a great chart that shows the age pullback that's now underway. The article goes on to point out that, even with the loss of that advantage however, they might have pulled it off last year if not for the under-performance of Beltran and McCann. They did make some very astute and relatively cheap moves: Headley, Prado, Brandon McCarthy, Chris Young, and even Capuano. But all those players together don't add up to one year of performance from the players they used to be able to buy up. The sooner they turn to rebuilding their weak system the better. They gambled on a lot on International players to the tune of $15 million, so that's a step forward. But it only makes the failure to spend the additional cash for Moncada, a talent who's much further along and one who has at least a passing chance of being a generational player, even harder to understand. |
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Post by tjb21 on Mar 18, 2015 12:58:10 GMT -5
Great posts Norm, appreciate the insights and links.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 18, 2015 13:20:24 GMT -5
While I agree with most of what was said, the real Yankee Dynasty was done with young home grown players. They only successfully bought one championship in 2009.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 18, 2015 13:30:50 GMT -5
While I agree with most of what was said, the real Yankee Dynasty was done with young home grown players. They only successfully bought one championship in 2009. And even then, they were surrounding those core homegrown players. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 18, 2015 14:00:22 GMT -5
True and they had the highest payrolls in MLB most of those years.
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 22, 2015 14:31:17 GMT -5
The Yankees were given the opportunity to top the Red Sox‘s $31.5MM offer to Yoan Moncada, but declined. “We scouted him extensively for years,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman said. “I feel we put him through the highest level of scouting and medical evaluation. I just wasn’t comfortable offering what we actually offered ($25MM), let alone going any higher.“
MLBTR
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dd
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Post by dd on Mar 22, 2015 17:14:31 GMT -5
The Yankees were given the opportunity to top the Red Sox‘s $31.5MM offer to Yoan Moncada, but declined. “We scouted him extensively for years,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman said. “I feel we put him through the highest level of scouting and medical evaluation. I just wasn’t comfortable offering what we actually offered ($25MM), let alone going any higher.“ MLBTR Well, let's just hope they got it wrong. |
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Post by tonyc on Mar 22, 2015 19:53:10 GMT -5
Jimed,
As you may recall, from the early days of free agency the sox put together great home grown teams with your namesake, Carlton Fisk, Lynn and many others which could have `perhaps won championships if not for Yankee teams led by free agent purchases- Reggie, Gossage, Catfish and many others. Then many other Steinbrenner bought teams followed suit.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 23, 2015 7:37:41 GMT -5
Jimed, As you may recall, from the early days of free agency the sox put together great home grown teams with your namesake, Carlton Fisk, Lynn and many others which could have `perhaps won championships if not for Yankee teams led by free agent purchases- Reggie, Gossage, Catfish and many others. Then many other Steinbrenner bought teams followed suit. Oh believe me, I remember. We never had pitching until the mid 80s. And letting Lynn and Fisk go was just stupid. I love John Henry. |
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Post by soxcentral on Mar 23, 2015 9:11:56 GMT -5
Ranked! Here's hoping #2 is the lowest Yoan ever sees on this site.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 23, 2015 9:41:16 GMT -5
So if the staff was waiting until they saw Moncada before ranking him, this means they 1) had first hand scouting on Moncada and 2) decided that Swihart is the better prospect? Are these assumptions correct?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 23, 2015 10:59:15 GMT -5
"Better prospect" is a tough thing to agree with. Let's say we decided Swihart ranked higher, to get all lawyerly. That make sense?
We'll explain more later, as well as on the podcast.
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Post by michael on Mar 23, 2015 16:23:31 GMT -5
Does "better prospect rank" include time til player reaches majors?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 23, 2015 16:27:34 GMT -5
Kind of surprised at how many people expect him to lead our minor league system in HR this year. His power numbers in Cuba aren't great. I think his game power may come more gradually.
That being said, it's been a long time since he's played actual games, so maybe more of his raw comes into play this year. I hope it does. His body type and bat speed definitely point to some thunder.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 23, 2015 17:35:32 GMT -5
Kind of surprised at how many people expect him to lead our minor league system in HR this year. His power numbers in Cuba aren't great. I think his game power may come more gradually. That being said, it's been a long time since he's played actual games, so maybe more of his raw comes into play this year. I hope it does. His body type and bat speed definitely point to some thunder. There have been precious few eyes on him other than those of ML scouts/front office people. He has not played in a year. Someone above said that his stats weren't great in Cuba which is true. I am sure that he was far aged-advanced. Perhaps his "specimen" body at 19 is a factor in the hype. We have missed out on so many prior Cubans, maybe that also pushed us the extra financial mile. But, with no playing time and much as we might want to dream of him wearing a cape, how the heck can one (Soxprospects) put him as our #1 prospect? Such a ranking would be taken from the air. It certainly isn't fair to him either. I agree with whomever does the rankings. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 23, 2015 18:41:41 GMT -5
Swihart is a prospect with all star potential at a defensive premium position who's performing and appears to be on the cusp of the majors; I completely agree with slotting Moncada behind that. It's not like everyone else has him very far ahead of Swihart. If all goes to plan Yoan may have his day at #1.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 23, 2015 18:44:56 GMT -5
We might want to consider who he was playing with and how old he was. Out of all the players on the Cienfuegos team in the Serie Nacional who's ages are given, he was 17 and the youngest by five years. Jose Abreu who was 25 at the time had the best OPS at 1.098, but Moncada came in 10 th with .762. If that league really is the equivalent of AAA as some have said, he wasn't just age advanced, he was a boy among men. At 19 Betts was in A- and carried a .658 OPS. At 17, Bogaerts hit at .819 but for a Rookie league team. He's all of 19 now. We might want to give him a chance to see what two years have wrought before we strip him of his power, no? |
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dd
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Post by dd on Mar 23, 2015 18:50:02 GMT -5
Somebody, maybe Chris, explained a week or so ago that there's not much difference between ranking a player 2 - 5. Ranking him #1 though is way different and they are cognizant of, and may factor in, the extra pressure a #1 ranking can put on a young player.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 23, 2015 19:15:44 GMT -5
We might want to consider who he was playing with and how old he was. Out of all the players on the Cienfuegos team in the Serie Nacional who's ages are given, he was 17 and the youngest by five years. Jose Abreu who was 25 at the time had the best OPS at 1.098, but Moncada came in 10 th with .762. If that league really is the equivalent of AAA as some have said, he wasn't just age advanced, he was a boy among men. At 19 Betts was in A- and carried a .658 OPS. At 17, Bogaerts hit at .819 but for a Rookie league team. He's all of 19 now. We might want to give him a chance to see what two years have wrought before we strip him of his power, no? Well, what I said. |
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Post by burythehammer on Mar 24, 2015 6:15:52 GMT -5
Kind of surprised at how many people expect him to lead our minor league system in HR this year. His power numbers in Cuba aren't great. I think his game power may come more gradually. That being said, it's been a long time since he's played actual games, so maybe more of his raw comes into play this year. I hope it does. His body type and bat speed definitely point to some thunder. There have been precious few eyes on him other than those of ML scouts/front office people. He has not played in a year. Someone above said that his stats weren't great in Cuba which is true. I am sure that he was far aged-advanced. Perhaps his "specimen" body at 19 is a factor in the hype. We have missed out on so many prior Cubans, maybe that also pushed us the extra financial mile. But, with no playing time and much as we might want to dream of him wearing a cape, how the heck can one (Soxprospects) put him as our #1 prospect? Such a ranking would be taken from the air. It certainly isn't fair to him either. I agree with whomever does the rankings. So #1 would be ridiculous, but you're okay with him being #2 despite all the things you just mentioned? That's very silly. We have some very good prospects at 3-5, how can you justify putting him ahead of them? Just pulling it out of the air, imo. In all seriousness, you can easily make a reasonable argument for 1 or 2. And don't get me started on the, "it's not fair to him" nonsense. He's a 19 year old who they spent 63 million on and introduced in a big press conference, but SP ranking him as our best prospect is going to put too much pressure on him? |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 24, 2015 6:21:16 GMT -5
As we explain on the podcast that'll be released tonight, it's basically 1A and 1B. They're very close.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Mar 24, 2015 11:50:09 GMT -5
I am not worried about ranking him one or two. He is an elite talent, which we are all excited about. Giving him two years to reach the majors like Mookie did bug me. It took Mookie 3 years. Mookie is a very rare talent. I just want Moncada ready before we promote him to the majors.
I am excited to hear the podcast and listen to the observations.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 24, 2015 12:12:39 GMT -5
The Yankees were given the opportunity to top the Red Sox‘s $31.5MM offer to Yoan Moncada, but declined. “We scouted him extensively for years,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman said. “I feel we put him through the highest level of scouting and medical evaluation. I just wasn’t comfortable offering what we actually offered ($25MM), let alone going any higher.“ MLBTR I wonder what makes a kid worth $25 million, but not $33? If he had gone to NY, they would be talking about how they thoroughly scouted him and thought he was a future HOFer in the making, so I'm not all too worried about Cashman's comments. I'm more interested in what other GM's think of his potential. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 24, 2015 13:19:46 GMT -5
The Yankees were given the opportunity to top the Red Sox‘s $31.5MM offer to Yoan Moncada, but declined. “We scouted him extensively for years,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman said. “I feel we put him through the highest level of scouting and medical evaluation. I just wasn’t comfortable offering what we actually offered ($25MM), let alone going any higher.“ MLBTR I wonder what makes a kid worth $25 million, but not $33? If he had gone to NY, they would be talking about how they thoroughly scouted him and thought he was a future HOFer in the making, so I'm not all too worried about Cashman's comments. I'm more interested in what other GM's think of his potential. When you say 33 and 25, you really mean 66 and 50, which is what it would have came to after the tax. That's also a 32% increase on a bonus that shattered any previous bonus ever given, and Cashman said he was already uncomfortable with the 25M offer. Maybe that's just posture, but personally I don't find that hard to believe the Yankees side of this. Their cash flows are down and their payroll is up. The next three years they will continue to have unfavorable contracts for aging stars, and they take bigger hits financially in seasons they miss the playoffs than any other baseball team (and probably any sports team). They just spent 15M on the international market which they were also taxed on the overages. They very well could have discounted future performance and put a premium on current performances compared to our view. If it takes Moncada 2 years in the minors, he would debut at the same time Tex and Beltran come off the books, with CC having his option year, the year after that A-Rod comes off. They could plan to use that money on a proven starter at that time, instead of taking the gamble now. I'll go back to the car argument, would you pay 40K for a 30K car because you liked it? If you really saw the worth of that car at 30K, chances are you wouldn't purposely deviate much from that price. As much as we all love Moncada and we are excited about the signing, there is a real chance the Sox spent 60M+ on a guy who may never see an inning in the majors. I don't see skipping out on that risk as a bad strategy, just a different one. |
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Post by kman22 on Mar 24, 2015 13:24:01 GMT -5
I wonder what makes a kid worth $25 million, but not $33? If he had gone to NY, they would be talking about how they thoroughly scouted him and thought he was a future HOFer in the making, so I'm not all too worried about Cashman's comments. I'm more interested in what other GM's think of his potential. When you say 33 and 25, you really mean 66 and 50, which is what it would have came to after the tax. That's also a 32% increase on a bonus that shattered any previous bonus ever given, and Cashman said he was already uncomfortable with the 25M offer. Maybe that's just posture, but personally I don't find that hard to believe the Yankees side of this. Their cash flows are down and their payroll is up. The next three years they will continue to have unfavorable contracts for aging stars, and they take bigger hits financially in seasons they miss the playoffs than any other baseball team (and probably any sports team). They just spent 15M on the international market which they were also taxed on the overages. They very well could have discounted future performance and put a premium on current performances compared to our view. If it takes Moncada 2 years in the minors, he would debut at the same time Tex and Beltran come off the books, with CC having his option year, the year after that A-Rod comes off. They could plan to use that money on a proven starter at that time, instead of taking the gamble now. I'll go back to the car argument, would you pay 40K for a 30K car because you liked it? If you really saw the worth of that car at 30K, chances are you wouldn't purposely deviate much from that price. As much as we all love Moncada and we are excited about the signing, there is a real chance the Sox spent 60M+ on a guy who may never see an inning in the majors. I don't see skipping out on that risk as a bad strategy, just a different one. The car analogy doesn't work for me, because the car has no chance to exceed my initial valuation. Moncada could prove to be worth well upwards of $63M to Boston in his 6 years of team control. |
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