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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 25, 2015 0:42:54 GMT -5
I haven't read this entire thread but it would seem to make sense to just move him to the OF next year. Stocky guys like him are maybe never going to be flexible enough to play good middle infield and his speed should play extremely well in the OF. Of course how many CF prospects do we need? I can see maybe 3rd base but my bet is he's an eventual OF. The logical thing to do would be to convert him to 3B next year, hope that Sandoval has a nice bounce-back year, and then trade Sandoval to make room for Moncada in 2017; if he's not ready by mid-season, you can play Shaw and/or Holt there. Of course, we hope to see Benintendi replacing Castillo at about the same time. Now, what you do when Devers (who seems likely to be the better defender) arrives a year or two later, assuming none of these three guys busts, is another story. Moncada's bat certainly looks to play at 1B, and he might be a very good defender there. If he can run good routes, he should be a very good defensive OFer given his speed, opening up the possibility of moving Mookie back to 2B. You could even see Moncada as a primary DH who spells your 3B and all three OF, and can play 2B in a pinch.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 25, 2015 9:06:33 GMT -5
It's hard to think of any scenario more unlikely than that "You could even see Moncada as a primary DH who spells your 3B and all three OF, and can play 2B in a pinch."
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Aug 25, 2015 16:21:39 GMT -5
They'd probably be thought about as similar defensive profiles if Moncada was an outfielder. From never seeing Moncada play, his reports would suggest he had a better arm than Trout at the time. That being the only knock on Trout coming up. Perhaps they are similar athletically, but I would really need to see how Moncada reads fly balls before making any sort of judgment there. In any case, as others pointed out, if Moncada even approaches anywhere close to Trout levels (or even just becomes a first division starter, irrespective of Trout comparisons), we should be pretty pleased with this signing.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 26, 2015 1:14:11 GMT -5
It's hard to think of any scenario more unlikely than that "You could even see Moncada as a primary DH who spells your 3B and all three OF, and can play 2B in a pinch." What I meant by that is closer to the typical "we use DH to half-rest a regular because we have one more quality bat than we can fit in the field" rotation, where Moncada is the guy who gets the most DH starts. That's admittedly unlikely, but I can imagine scenarios where it's the smartest thing to do.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 26, 2015 5:45:59 GMT -5
It's hard to think of any scenario more unlikely than that "You could even see Moncada as a primary DH who spells your 3B and all three OF, and can play 2B in a pinch." What I meant by that is closer to the typical "we use DH to half-rest a regular because we have one more quality bat than we can fit in the field" rotation, where Moncada is the guy who gets the most DH starts. That's admittedly unlikely, but I can imagine scenarios where it's the smartest thing to do. Yeah, I got that, but there is nothing about Moncada's defensive skills that suggests he could thrive while playing 4 or 5 positions; defensively, he's more like Xander than like Mookie or Holt. He's only OK at 2b now, but could become very good somewhere with work. And his offensive potential is so great that you don't want him either playing five positions, or getting a lot of at bats in which he faces, at age 22 or so, the DH challenge of sitting on the bench and then hitting (weren't you just talking about this?). The idea of a rotating DH is good in theory, but you don't give the most rest to the very young guy with zero health problems (not on a team with Pedroia, Panda, Castillo, and maybe Hanley). So there is nothing attractive about any aspect of this idea. You need to find him a position.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 26, 2015 13:20:02 GMT -5
What I meant by that is closer to the typical "we use DH to half-rest a regular because we have one more quality bat than we can fit in the field" rotation, where Moncada is the guy who gets the most DH starts. That's admittedly unlikely, but I can imagine scenarios where it's the smartest thing to do. Yeah, I got that, but there is nothing about Moncada's defensive skills that suggests he could thrive while playing 4 or 5 positions; defensively, he's more like Xander than like Mookie or Holt. He's only OK at 2b now, but could become very good somewhere with work. And his offensive potential is so great that you don't want him either playing five positions, or getting a lot of at bats in which he faces, at age 22 or so, the DH challenge of sitting on the bench and then hitting (weren't you just talking about this?). The idea of a rotating DH is good in theory, but you don't give the most rest to the very young guy with zero health problems (not on a team with Pedroia, Panda, Castillo, and maybe Hanley). So there is nothing attractive about any aspect of this idea. You need to find him a position. Good points; the health and the need for him to get consistent reps at one position probably outweigh the fact that he might be the weakest defender of the candidates. In this scenario, Hanley's probably the full-time DH anyway, and Panda's long gone. I'm thinking about where he goes, in the best-case scenario where Betts, Bradley, and Benintendi are the OF, he seems to be too good to play 1B, and Devers is ready and looks like the better defensive 3B. But they moved Youkilis from 3B to 1B even though they believed he was still a plus defender at 3B, and that worked out fine ... so maybe there's not even a potential dilemma, even though the idea of a guy with Moncada's speed ending up at 1B is kind of brain-bursting. Obviously, there's a chance that one of Bradley, Benintendi, Moncada, or Devers will disappoint by then, but I actually think that's less likely than it might seem. Devers would seem to have the lowest floor.
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Post by beantown on Aug 27, 2015 17:41:51 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 27, 2015 19:02:04 GMT -5
I haven't read this entire thread but it would seem to make sense to just move him to the OF next year. Stocky guys like him are maybe never going to be flexible enough to play good middle infield and his speed should play extremely well in the OF. Of course how many CF prospects do we need? I can see maybe 3rd base but my bet is he's an eventual OF. You're making stuff up, Lavarnaway. Look at the videos, including the one of him running the bases. That is a 6'2" package of athleticism. The notion that he's "stocky" was pulled from your... own belief system. Watch a few NBA games sometime to get a feel for the amazing things people much larger than Moncada can do. I was always hoping that Karl Malone would try his hand at tight end (with the Patriots and that was BEFORE Gronkowski, of course):
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Post by telson13 on Aug 27, 2015 22:58:05 GMT -5
I haven't read this entire thread but it would seem to make sense to just move him to the OF next year. Stocky guys like him are maybe never going to be flexible enough to play good middle infield and his speed should play extremely well in the OF. Of course how many CF prospects do we need? I can see maybe 3rd base but my bet is he's an eventual OF. You're making stuff up, Lavarnaway. Look at the videos, including the one of him running the bases. That is a 6'2" package of athleticism. The notion that he's "stocky" was pulled from your... own belief system. Watch a few NBA games sometime to get a feel for the amazing things people much larger than Moncada can do. I was always hoping that Karl Malone would try his hand at tight end (with the Patriots and that was BEFORE Gronkowski, of course): That would've been worth it just to see him stiff-arming the entire nickel package of 5-10/180 DBs at once...with one hand. That's just one large dude, right there. As for Moncada, he's approaching that landmark triple-slash of .300/.400/.500. Oh, and you know, 50 steals (in just over half a season's worth of games). Describe him however you like, dude's got jets and knows how to use 'em.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 27, 2015 23:01:43 GMT -5
If anything Moncada looks shorter to the ball there. Nice comparison.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 28, 2015 0:30:37 GMT -5
Trout is so great. Watch that swing carefully and you'll see that, at contact, he has a lightning quick wrist snap that imparts backspin to the ball. There may be some of that in Moncada's, also. He looks to have serious power from the right side, as lots of posters have noted.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2015 6:25:39 GMT -5
Here they are side by side. Great observation.
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Post by beantown on Aug 28, 2015 9:05:40 GMT -5
Trout is so great. Watch that swing carefully and you'll see that, at contact, he has a lightning quick wrist snap that imparts backspin to the ball. There may be some of that in Moncada's, also. He looks to have serious power from the right side, as lots of posters have noted. One of a kind for sure. I went back in time a little bit and actually used trout's first MLB homer for the comparison gif above. He was all of 19 years old. It's pretty exciting that we can even draw comparisons between the two Also, thanks Jimed for putting the gifs side by side. Couldn't figure out how to do that for the life of me lol
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Post by telson13 on Aug 28, 2015 9:44:49 GMT -5
I watched a few of Betts' games while he was in the AFL. He was quite good, actually, and really impressed scouts. That's a very small sample size but he was hitting the ball on the screws the times I saw him - and drawing walks. Those 68 PAs aren't worth much for evaluating a player. The defense at 2nd was good and he looked fluid in the field. I think that's why players are sent down there, to get more experience and to get seen by evaluators. The stats can vary wildly and alone they don't give you much of a feel for a player. Yeah, I'm not saying he played poorly. From the reports I read he was doing exactly what you're saying, which was a continuation of what he'd done all year. My point was more that, statistically, he was just OK. I think he hit something like .271 with a high-300s OBP and one homer. Nothing that stood out in the AFL...while Shaw absolutely destroyed the ball. My comment was actually meant in the vein of what you said...get Moncada some AA-equivalent ABs in Arizona, ignore the stats but pay attention to the scouting, and hope it helps him take off next spring.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 28, 2015 9:52:21 GMT -5
It's almost as if Trout is using a 5 iron, lifting the ball as if he was scooping it out of sand. He appears to be rotating his wrists as he makes contact.
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Post by beantown on Aug 28, 2015 9:59:00 GMT -5
I like the smooth transition of moncada' back foot as he clears the zone with his hips. He makes it look effortless wheras trout is much more violent. Incredible athleticism there
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Post by templeusox on Aug 28, 2015 10:23:27 GMT -5
Here they are side by side. Great observation. That looks like Cano's swing, if he was a right-handed hitter.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 28, 2015 10:43:49 GMT -5
I knew that Moncada's last 2 months were quite impressive, but I was even more impressed when I decided to extrapolate those figures over 6 full months. Certainly this is not a great way to figure future production, but what IF he is the type of player we have seen in Greenville in July and August?
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K
In July....25 95 23 30 6 1 4 13 13 1 14 23 .316 .419 .526 .945 In Aug....16 64 17 24 7 0 3 10 21 3 11 13 .375 .467 .625 1.092
41 159 40 54 13 1 7 23 34 4 25 36 340 Last 2 Months 123 477 120 162 39 3 21 69 102 12 75 108 .340 Extrapolate Over a 6 Month Season
He is at 63 extra base hits in only 123 games with 120 runs scored and 102 stolen bases. Can't wait to see what he does next season with a year behind him and full off-season to make some adjustments.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 28, 2015 11:33:14 GMT -5
That would just be stupid good production.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 28, 2015 12:02:06 GMT -5
Is there a chance he skips straight to AA next season? I think that even with the playoff thing, it was a mistake leaving him in Greenville once he figured it all out. Or maybe he does more like Pedroia did in '04 and get 50 ab's in Salem to prove he has consolidated his gains (and to miss the coldest weather) before heading north.
EDIT: very different situations, as Petey was coming off of a college year, and A+ vs A. Still think that's a possibility. Perhaps Ellsbury skipping A+ altogether is a better blueprint. Guess we won't really know till ST. Travis Shaw basically skipped Greenville, as will Benintendi; not quite the same.
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Post by beantown on Aug 28, 2015 12:38:54 GMT -5
@ templeusoxCano's fluid load and one-handed finish look more like Devers IMO
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 28, 2015 13:37:12 GMT -5
I knew that Moncada's last 2 months were quite impressive, but I was even more impressed when I decided to extrapolate those figures over 6 full months. Certainly this is not a great way to figure future production, but what IF he is the type of player we have seen in Greenville in July and August? G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K In July....25 95 23 30 6 1 4 13 13 1 14 23 .316 .419 .526 .945 In Aug....16 64 17 24 7 0 3 10 21 3 11 13 .375 .467 .625 1.092 41 159 40 54 13 1 7 23 34 4 25 36 340 Last 2 Months 123 477 120 162 39 3 21 69 102 12 75 108 .340 Extrapolate Over a 6 Month Season He is at 63 extra base hits in only 123 games with 120 runs scored and 102 stolen bases. Can't wait to see what he does next season with a year behind him and full off-season to make some adjustments. The question with Moncada is whether the first month of his season was because of his adjustment period to playing baseball again, or was it just a cold stretch or a normal adjustment to better pitching? If it's the former, we can exclude it to a certain extent, meaning that he's had an astonishing season that may even be underrated by how good it's been. If it's just a normal cold stretch or normal adjustment period that any minor leaguer goes through, then we are cherry-picking by excluding it. There are very strong reasons to believe in the former explanation, but we just don't know. That swing, though ... mercy. It's so quiet and quick. His head moves in a short, straight line toward the ball, then just stops and remains totally still. His whole body then rotates along a single axis and stays straight. And he hits the ball very hard from that quiet swing. He looks like an offensive force.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2015 19:36:05 GMT -5
I knew that Moncada's last 2 months were quite impressive, but I was even more impressed when I decided to extrapolate those figures over 6 full months. Certainly this is not a great way to figure future production, but what IF he is the type of player we have seen in Greenville in July and August? G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K In July....25 95 23 30 6 1 4 13 13 1 14 23 .316 .419 .526 .945 In Aug....16 64 17 24 7 0 3 10 21 3 11 13 .375 .467 .625 1.092 41 159 40 54 13 1 7 23 34 4 25 36 340 Last 2 Months 123 477 120 162 39 3 21 69 102 12 75 108 .340 Extrapolate Over a 6 Month Season He is at 63 extra base hits in only 123 games with 120 runs scored and 102 stolen bases. Can't wait to see what he does next season with a year behind him and full off-season to make some adjustments. The question with Moncada is whether the first month of his season was because of his adjustment period to playing baseball again, or was it just a cold stretch or a normal adjustment to better pitching? If it's the former, we can exclude it to a certain extent, meaning that he's had an astonishing season that may even be underrated by how good it's been. If it's just a normal cold stretch or normal adjustment period that any minor leaguer goes through, then we are cherry-picking by excluding it. There are very strong reasons to believe in the former explanation, but we just don't know. That swing, though ... mercy. It's so quiet and quick. His head moves in a short, straight line toward the ball, then just stops and remains totally still. His whole body then rotates along a single axis and stays straight. And he hits the ball very hard from that quiet swing. He looks like an offensive force. The size of the disparity between the hot and cold certainly suggests that only his post-ASB numbers matter. I think it may be conclusive, too. The odds of having a split of .016 versus .050 HR / Contact, plus .279 vs. .409 BABIP, plus .235 vs. .296 XBH in Play / Hits in Play, all at random given his overall rates, are about 1 in 80. That's a little bit short of closing the case. However, in the null hypothesis, there's no reason for random changes in those three metrics to go in the same direction, so it may be kosher to make the odds 4 times longer. In which case, I think it's good enough to regard it as true.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 29, 2015 15:10:17 GMT -5
Has Moncada gotten more lean since we signed him? He looks leaner in the recent videos.
I don't think the Sox will be inclined to move him through the minors quickly. Considering how much they signed him, for why not make sure he is in his prime when he makes the majors?
I'm not saying they will park him in the minors for years but I don't see why they would hurry him. The fact that he is still in Greenville seems to confirm that.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 29, 2015 15:23:17 GMT -5
Has Moncada gotten more lean since we signed him? He looks leaner in the recent videos. I don't think the Sox will be inclined to move him through the minors quickly. Considering how much they signed him, for why not make sure he is in his prime when he makes the majors? I'm not saying they will park him in the minors for years but I don't see why they would hurry him. The fact that he is still in Greenville seems to confirm that. He was ripped the first time I saw a picture of him before he signed. I doubt they hurry him or hold him back. There is no point in playing him at levels that don't test him though.
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