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Post by grandsalami on Sept 10, 2015 12:16:43 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 10, 2015 12:50:24 GMT -5
Someone from this forum is a scout? |
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 10, 2015 14:52:49 GMT -5
My prediction: Moncada and Benintendi will be in Virginia long enough to say: hi, howayah? Then it's off to Pohtland.
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 10, 2015 18:11:45 GMT -5
Has Moncada gotten more lean since we signed him? He looks leaner in the recent videos. I don't think the Sox will be inclined to move him through the minors quickly. Considering how much they signed him, for why not make sure he is in his prime when he makes the majors? I'm not saying they will park him in the minors for years but I don't see why they would hurry hi. The fact that he is still in Greenville seems to confirm that. Could you give me an example of a type of player who you think it would be wise to move through the minors quickly? It seems like this is your personal take on every prospect and you're projecting it onto the Red Sox. |
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Post by jdb on Sept 10, 2015 18:23:07 GMT -5
So during his stay at The Fort this fall is he going to be exposed to 3B any? I know the original plan was to get him adjusted at the position he's most familiar with since it's hard enough being thrown into a different culture.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 11, 2015 15:35:30 GMT -5
My prediction: Moncada and Benintendi will be in Virginia long enough to say: hi, howayah? Then it's off to Pohtland. play a good number of games in the DC area for local SoxProspects folks to get a good look at them. Fixed. I am already excited to go to Frederick and Potomac next year and seeing Moncada, Benintendi, Devers, Chavis, Longhi, Kopech, Guerra ... what a fun time that'll be. |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 12, 2015 12:55:29 GMT -5
Has Moncada gotten more lean since we signed him? He looks leaner in the recent videos. I don't think the Sox will be inclined to move him through the minors quickly. Considering how much they signed him, for why not make sure he is in his prime when he makes the majors? I'm not saying they will park him in the minors for years but I don't see why they would hurry hi. The fact that he is still in Greenville seems to confirm that. Could you give me an example of a type of player who you think it would be wise to move through the minors quickly? It seems like this is your personal take on every prospect and you're projecting it onto the Red Sox. I'm seeing projections of as low as one year for both Benintendi and Moncada and yet they both are in Greenville. I'm not necessarily a cautious person. If my odds are 51% success I will gamble almost every time if I'm in a position to be able to gamble. My point is it should proceed naturally and there is no hurry. As good as Moncada has been he still is not destroying the league. He's 4th or 5th in SB even though he's been in the league all year and that is his primary calling card. His power has not shown itself that well yet and his overall BA is still well under .300. His OBP and overall numbers are not "Troutian" just yet nor is his defense. I have him as #2 on my sox prospect list behind Benintendi. I'm in no hurry. If he gets to the majors in 2 years that is a better projection. Why not make sure he's ready and get the most out of him? His tools are potential superstar and he's extremely young. If you want a profile I would be more inclined to promote aggressively it would be Benintendi. He should blow through Salem and Portland next year and be in Boston after we make sure we get him past potential super 2 status in 2017. Better strike zone management, pitch selection, ability to drive the ball, solid defense, used to playing under pressure, and overall approach. I think Benintendi will handle off speed pitches better as he climbs the ranks. Benintendi is way more ready for advancement than Moncada to me. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2015 13:30:58 GMT -5
Could you give me an example of a type of player who you think it would be wise to move through the minors quickly? It seems like this is your personal take on every prospect and you're projecting it onto the Red Sox. I'm seeing projections of as low as one year for both Benintendi and Moncada and yet they both are in Greenville. I'm not necessarily a cautious person. If my odds are 51% success I will gamble almost every time if I'm in a position to be able to gamble. My point is it should proceed naturally and there is no hurry. As good as Moncada has been he still is not destroying the league. He's 4th or 5th in SB even though he's been in the league all year and that is his primary calling card. His power has not shown itself that well yet and his overall BA is still well under .300. His OBP and overall numbers are not "Troutian" just yet nor is his defense. I have him as #2 on my sox prospect list behind Benintendi. I'm in no hurry. If he gets to the majors in 2 years that is a better projection. Why not make sure he's ready and get the most out of him? His tools are potential superstar and he's extremely young. If you want a profile I would be more inclined to promote aggressively it would be Benintendi. He should blow through Salem and Portland next year and be in Boston after we make sure we get him past potential super 2 status in 2017. Better strike zone management, pitch selection, ability to drive the ball, solid defense, used to playing under pressure, and overall approach. I think Benintendi will handle off speed pitches better as he climbs the ranks. Benintendi is way more ready for advancement than Moncada to me. Well, he was 3rd in SB and he played just 2/3 of the season, but, darn, those are just, waddya call 'em ... facts, I think. And the actual measure of SB skill is SB - 2 * CS. That translates directly to your value in runs. Call it Net SB or NSB. (Reggie Jackson led the AL in 1974 with a mere 15 = 25 SB, 5 CS. That tells you how long I've been looking at that stat.) There were 1139 players in organized ball who had 350 or more PA. Yoan Moncada ranked 2nd in NSB/PA. The gap between him and the guy who ranked 6th in all of pro ball was larger than the one between the guy who ranked 6th and the guy who ranked 842nd. Yup, he had more than double the NSB rate of the guy who was 6th in all of pro ball.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 12, 2015 17:31:48 GMT -5
Great. He's moved up in the ranks of SB a little since I last looked. He's spent 303 AB in Greenville and he hasn't been anywhere else besides XST this year so to me that's "all year". What is a top prospect doing spending so long in XST anyway? We spend over $60 mil for him and he needs extra time in EST?
I get that everyone, including me, loves Moncada but I'm into the data also. Call it the superficial data if you like but a .278 BA is not all that great for a top guy, a .380 OBP in Greenville is not that great. His K to walk rate is not that great. When he was in Cuba at the same age as Iglesias he didn't hit that much better. I get the tools but I'm not buying the Mike Trout hype. Wish I could but to me he's another really athletic speedster with great tools who may still be average unless he can hit a curveball.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 12, 2015 17:52:32 GMT -5
Great. He's moved up in the ranks of SB a little since I last looked. He's spent 303 AB in Greenville and he hasn't been anywhere else besides XST this year so to me that's "all year". What is a top prospect doing spending so long in XST anyway? We spend over $60 mil for him and he needs extra time in EST? I get that everyone, including me, loves Moncada but I'm into the data also. Call it the superficial data if you like but a .278 BA is not all that great for a top guy, a .380 OBP in Greenville is not that great. His K to walk rate is not that great. When he was in Cuba at the same age as Iglesias he didn't hit that much better. I get the tools but I'm not buying the Mike Trout hype. Wish I could but to me he's another really athletic speedster with great tools who may still be average unless he can hit a curveball. Wow. |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 12, 2015 18:08:51 GMT -5
Not saying he won't be great. Saying he's still mainly just an extremely toolsy prospect. This year has been very encouraging but I'm not penciling him in as an all star just yet. No question he has tremendous tools but he is still in A ball and in over 300 AB with all that speed he still is hitting less than .280.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 12, 2015 18:14:40 GMT -5
Not saying he won't be great. Saying he's still mainly just an extremely toolsy prospect. This year has been very encouraging but I'm not penciling him in as an all star just yet. No question he has tremendous tools but he is still in A ball and in over 300 AB with all that speed he still is hitting less than .280. On what planet is a .380 OBP not great? Since when is an 11.6% walk rate a concern? And he was in XST for a long time because he hadn't played in 18 months. No one is penciling him in as an All Star, they're penciling him in as a top 5 prospect in MLB. |
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Sept 12, 2015 18:25:56 GMT -5
I was penciling him as an all star. In fact, I used ink.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 12, 2015 19:15:18 GMT -5
I think I actually had him as my 3rd best prospect behind Benintendi and Espinoza. Not dogging on him. Just like the other ones better. If he continues to do well as he climbs the ladder he may well be a top 5 prospect. I think you are probably right but he's still the 3rd best prospect on my list. The hype with Moncada has been off the charts really since before he even signed. I'm not concerned about his strikeout rate but I don't think he is necessarily going to be a high OBP / BA guy in the majors either. Maybe he will, maybe he won't. He still hasn't seen great off speed stuff yet. Castillo is a physical specimen also but I'm seeing quite a bit of weak contact in his AB. Mookie destroyed the minors from A ball up and he's still hitting less than 290 as good as he has been. If I had to bet right now who would give us the better career I would pick Mookie and if I had to trade players right now I'd take Espinoza due to the value if he actually reaches his potential and Benintendi as I think he is very likely to be a solid regular in the majors ( better floor ) plus has solid overall value with good pop already. Love his bat speed and overall abilities. Not dogging on Moncada. We just have such a great list of top 4-5 guys.
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 12, 2015 19:24:27 GMT -5
Not saying he won't be great. Saying he's still mainly just an extremely toolsy prospect. This year has been very encouraging but I'm not penciling him in as an all star just yet. No question he has tremendous tools but he is still in A ball and in over 300 AB with all that speed he still is hitting less than .280. His wRC+ ranks 6th in the Sally League. And all but one of the guys ahead of him are at least a year older. And we all know he's been even better than that since he shook the rust off. He even has a .300 average. You could easily make the argument he's the best hitter in the Sally League as a 20 year old. That's based on performance, not projection or tools. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2015 21:06:50 GMT -5
Great. He's moved up in the ranks of SB a little since I last looked. You claim he wasn't a dominant SB guy, I point out that he was the second best base-stealer in all of pro ball (out of 1139 players, actually; he was 7.3 standard deviations better than pro average), and your response is an apparently sarcastic acknowledgment that he was a little bit better that your original assessment. Your original claim was that he was only 4th or 5th in SB totals "even though he's been in the league all year," which clearly means "even though he had as much playing time as anyone else." Now we learn, that, to you, "starting six weeks into the season" somehow means "all year." OK. Ok, well, this is just a wild-assed guess, but maybe, possibly, the extra time in XST was BECAUSE HE MISSED THE ENTIRE 2014 SEASON WHILE HE WAS DEFECTING.Are you aware of the fact that he hit .200 / .287 / .289 with just 4 SB attempts (0 CS) in his first 25 G / 101 PA (gee, hmm, maybe some time in XST was a good idea), and then after four days off for the league All-Star Break, hit .310 / .415 / .500 with 45 SB and 3 CS* in 56 G / 262 PA? Of course you do, since we've talked about it continually in this thread.*That Net SB rate rate leads all pros by a wide margin. It's a 157 SB rate where 100 is Billy Hamilton (4th in pro ball). Yes, this is what you're doing in this pair of posts: you're looking at a guy who, once he started trying to steal bases, was 57% better at it than Billy Hamilton ... and you are arguing that he was actually a disappointment at it! Glad to know you're into the data! I do want to thank you: this is the most amusing example of doubling-down on an incorrect argument that I've ever seen in 15 years on the Internet. Seriously. You win the prize. |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 13, 2015 2:03:42 GMT -5
Eric, I did say that he may well end up a top 5 prospect and stated a lot of other positive things about him. I just don't have him as high as apparently most of you. It's not doubling down on a humorously ignorant position. To me, if you spend $60 mil on a player he generally should not need extra time in XST. We are talking about Greenville here. I respect your statistical ability but sometimes I laugh at your lack of perspective. To say "This is the most amusing example of doubling-down on an incorrect argument that I've ever seen in 15 years on the Internet. Seriously. You win the prize" is uncalled for but when I end up being right you guys are nowhere to be seen admitting it. Oh well..apparently it makes you feel better about your lives. My life isn't a bowl of cherries either.
If you want to compare him to Billy Hamilton, you may want to note that Billy Hamilton is in the majors and Moncada was in Greenville. Lot's of guys steal bases well in the Sally. When Billy Hamilton was in A ball he stole 104 bases and then followed that up with 155 the next year and 103 the next year. Compare that with Moncada's 49. As I noted earlier, others even stole similar amounts this year in the Sally. It's a matter of perspective isn't it. No question though, his base stealing numbers are outstanding and indicate he can be a top base stealing threat in the majors and I did note that aspect of his game as his strongest tool.
Not hating on Moncada. He may well be the toolsiest player in the minors currently. I think we should be hitting the breaks a little though before thinking he might be the next Mike Trout. In Trout's only 2 years in the minors he hit .352 and .341. With much higher obp and ops than Moncada also. Trout didn't struggle that much defensively either. Trout came out of high school and didn't need extended spring training. Except for his tools, there is very little indication Moncada will ever become Mike Trout.
I think Moncada is going to be great and he has lot's of time to become great but he's nowhere near the majors or mlb stardom yet. The numbers are not his friend as much as they are being made out to be. Benintendi's OPS was over .140 higher. Benintendi's strikeout rate was around 10%. Moncada's was around 23%. The age difference wasn't that great and Benintendi may end up better defensively also. In my opinion, we under rate Benintendi and over rate Moncada. Tools are extremely important but results are also.
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 13, 2015 4:29:57 GMT -5
So your arguments for Moncada being overrated, to recap:
- They paid him 60m
- He's a really good base stealer
- He's not as good as Mike Trout
- People underrate Andrew Benintendi
Looks airtight to me.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 13, 2015 7:35:12 GMT -5
Regarding the scout who said Moncada is the closest thing to Trout: he is, in the sense that California is the closest state to Hawaii.
But Moncada is not just toolsy. He's performancey, too.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 13, 2015 9:26:27 GMT -5
So your arguments for Moncada being overrated, to recap: - They paid him 60m - He's a really good base stealer - He's not as good as Mike Trout - People underrate Andrew Benintendi Looks airtight to me. Possibly you missed the parts which were written in English like the .278 BA, 22% strikout rate etc. I also think he might end up a top 5 prospect but I'm not on the Moncada HOF train and this is redsox forum so obviously that warrants ridicule. We did pay him $60 mil right and then we still kept him in XST for 6 additional weeks and then he still started the season slowly. Correct? He didn't hit much better than Iglesias in Cuba. To most objective observers such things do not indicate a great start to his career considering the $60 mil we spent. My thinking is that part of the XST was to be careful with him, help his language transition etc... and he did do much better in the second half and the tools are still there of course. I know it is best to not scout the box score especially in the low minors but the box score data is not completely irrelevant. To me the data indicates that the raw tools are there and he appears to be developing well but he's still raw. I'm not concerned. I'm hoping for continued development of all aspects of his game. |
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Post by azblue on Sept 13, 2015 11:22:20 GMT -5
Triple down.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 13, 2015 11:52:41 GMT -5
Number of people on soxprospects who are on the Moncada HOF train: none
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 13, 2015 12:00:32 GMT -5
I find it funny that you are admittedly just scouting the box score and that has led you to conclude that Moncada is "raw" and Benintendi is a "baseball rat." I wonder what other factor might be leading to those labels.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 13, 2015 12:36:31 GMT -5
I find it funny that you are admittedly just scouting the box score and that has led you to conclude that Moncada is "raw" and Benintendi is a "baseball rat." I wonder what other factor might be leading to those labels. I know this isn't what you're implying, but I think a lot of people place prospects into those groups based on K rate. I don't think Moncada will ever be a low K guy. He's someone I see in the 19-22% range, and that should be fine. |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 13, 2015 17:01:14 GMT -5
Burythehammer...I was actually waiting for that comment from someone. Now you are implying racism. I don't differ with you guys much on Moncada, but you want to accentuate the differences. I hope he's fantastic and think he will be great. I just have less confidence that he will be than some of you. Apparently none of you care that in 2 years in Cuban baseball he hit about as well as Iglesias did at the same age. What does that tell you regarding his hitting ability? Anything? He still did just hit .278 in Greenville this year in over 300 AB. Does that tell anyone here anything? Are we seeing the hype or the performance level? The FO PR machine and rumors of some scout comments or the reality of the situation? No doubt Moncada "LOOKS' like a fantastic prospect but is he really a fantastic prospect in the same conversation as Mike Trout? Probably NWIH.
We paid $60 mil for him. Are we scouting the hype or the reality? The tools or an objective eval of his performance? No doubt his performance was real solid but top 5 performance level in the minors? That is more hype and tool projections than it is performance.
I'm hoping he becomes everything we all want him to be. No need to insult or insinuate racism. By the way, almost the only reason I watch Redsox baseball any more is to see Mookie, Xander, JBJ and Swihart develop. 3 out of 4 of those guys are at least mixed race. Just like my wife and kids.
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