Yoan Moncada

He cannot get a major league deal.

Is the issue when he is cleared or when he's signed?

I thought it was signed, in which case it will be interesting to see what happens if he's cleared later in the spring.

A team can convince him to wait and sign after June if they have the best offer.

The favorite to me are the Yankees. This guy is basically made for them. And they have shown a renewed sense of helping out the farm.

If they rate this guy as he has been billed then I don't see how they don't go all out for him.

The problem with this line of thought is that there are a lot of people in line waiting to get paid after the dust settles and they may not all be willing to just hang around another few months. Moncada's exit from Cuba is still really murky and though it likely does not include narco drug trafficking scum bags, it may have taken some bribes and promises made to shithead members of bureaucratic offices in Cuba who allowed him to so easily leave.

Not to mention his agent is just some CPA from St. Petersburg so it is not like he has houndreds of thousands of dollars at his disposal to keep this kid housed, fed, trained, entertained, showcased etc while he waits for a pay day. I am sure that he and those who have loaned him money during this process would like to see a return sooner than later.

July two guys "sign" verbals all the time. I can assure you the Espinoza, Acosta, Devers were "signed" well before July 2. In Espinoza's case he didn't even go to the MLB showcase.

Moncada is a higher profile guy so it may be different but teams know how to deal with verbals and how to proceed. Not saying it's going to happen but it's an option and I think it shouldn't be discounted.

The Yankees have the same issue as the Red Sox,he has to be declared before June. I did nt see the post before me.

But when July 2 guys agree verbally, they don't have the option of signing right then. That said, I do think it's an option and if the Cubs decide to blow away the other offers I can see it happening, but this is a different situation than with the July 2 guys. As others have pointed out, it may depend on when he's cleared, and that's far from clear. But I think that he'd be unlikely to wait several months to sign if he's got a similar offer on the table at the time.

One thing I wonder about is insurance. I don't know a lot about it, but I know I've read about guys taking out enormous insurance policies on themselves prior to signing a big contract. If he had a big insurance policy that would make waiting a few months a smaller risk.

In terms of favorites, I'd say it's the Yankees. They have not flexed the financial muscle they way they could in a while, but Kiley McDaniel said in this piece that "a Yankees source told me that they could break even financially with a $500 million payrolll expenditure (including luxury tax)." They operate in a different realm from every other team. That said, it seems like they don't like completely overwhelming the market, so I can see them drawing a line at, say $35 milllion and the Red Sox being prepared to go to $40 million.

In addition to the points others have made, I have one general point and one specific to Moncada.

First, point 1 is not really true. The pool amounts exist to limit spending in general--since major league baseball is a monopoly, limiting spending is generally good for teams' bottom lines. Major league baseball has promoted this as a way to prevent high budget teams from dominating the market, but just like with the draft, many smaller market teams were among the highest spending teams in the international arena before the most recent CBA. Further, the penalties for going over the international pool are relatively light--taxes (though they've generally been in the couple of million dollar range) and limits on what the teams can do the next year. But because they're light, and because international talent that is signed using this money is a long way from the majors so teams are never missing out on sure-fire stars (it does not include guys posted from Japan, for example, or any of the recent Cuban guys who've gone straight to the majors), a number of teams have had no problem going past the limit: the Rangers, Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, and I think a couple of others.

Contrast that with the first year player draft rules, which take away a team's first round pick. Every team has treated going past the limit far enough to lose a pick like a third rail.

The second point is how Moncada compares to the players usually signed with this money. These players are generally sixteen years old and very raw (as pretty much all sixteen year olds are). The likelihood of them never even making the major leagues, much less becoming stars, is very high. However, Moncada is nineteen and his game is much more refined. The odds of him not making the major leagues are minute. He's certainly no guarantee--we've seen plenty of top 10 prospects turn into replacement level players. But most top 10 prospects (and everything I've read is that he is a top 10, probably top 5 prospect right now) turn into at least solid major league players. Given that his defense seems to be at least passable at second or third (and maybe at short), his floor is very high. All of this is to say that the reason the international bonus pool doesn't seem to fit Moncada is that it wasn't developed for a player like him.

One last thing about the pool. Kiley McDaniel, in this piece about Moncada, talks about the likelihood that MLB would like to institute an international draft. There's a lot else in there, so I'll quote the most relevant paragraph:

Cafardo in the Globe, giving the opposite of the truth:
"Moncada, 19, has drawn considerable interest, but teams like the Red Sox who are well over their international pool allotment and can’t sign anyone until July 2"

Ummmm where do you live that it takes hundreds of thousands of dollars "to keep this kid housed, fed, trained, entertained, showcased etc while he waits for a pay day." It doesn't take much if anything to do that... Food, shelter and entertainment are minimal and training is probably free as someone would train him and take money later if you actually needed to do that which they probably wouldn't and teams come to you to see him.

Sure, but I don't see why the Sox would be favored to land him over the Yankees.