Discussion of Internal Pitching Options

Masterson has been pretty bad this year, but it's only been six starts. I'd be willing to give him at least a couple more starts before pulling him for purely performance reasons.

Ogando ... probably on the list of starters as a last resort. But he meets the definition of "Internal Pitching Options".

If Wright joined the rotation and failed, it wouldn't bother me a bit. Come July, this team will not be sentimental one bit about Masterson, Buchholz, Breslow.

I'm just about ready for Steven Wright to get another shot in the rotation. He went through some initial struggles, but has really settled in during his last two starts. Wright's knuckler is working right now, give him a shot.

Last 2 AAA starts:
2-0
14 IP
7 H
1 ER
0.64 ERA
14K/5BB
.152/.231/.217 Opp slash line
14GB/19FB/7LD
62% Strike rate and an impressive 15 swinging strikes in his last outing

SSS sure, but we could use any help in the rotation...

For those calling for Rodriguez to come up now, I'd invite you to read Chaz's latest Write-Up for this week, which focused on him: news.soxprospects.com/2015/05/the-write-up-eduardo-rodriguez.html

I know for me, personally, it made me think that he's a pitcher who could use some more development time. It's one plus pitch and two average secondaries that flash above-average. Certainly could be enough. I know I'd rather give him some time to marinate first though, after reading that.

OTOH, I'd definitely be down for giving him a spot start or something, perhaps during the stretch from 5/19 to 6/7 in which the club has 20 in a row with no off days.

The O's wanted him to throw his CH around 82mph. But he wasn't getting the movement on the pitch, plus his arm speed was too slow to where I think batters could tell it was coming. Since coming to the RS he has thrown it where he is comfortable, around 88mph. He gets more movement and his arm speed is close to his FB.
But, I believe he does need more time in AAA. During that 20 straight game stretch we should go to a 6 man rotation to keep our starters as fresh as possible over the long haul and potentially save our BP some. When we do have that stretch I would bring up Wright as well as Johnson and slide Masterson into the pen as the long man for when Buch, Miley, Kelly, and potentially anyone else starts.
My 2cents. Not worth much.

The solution to an overworked bullpen is not to replace one of your relievers in favor of a six-man rotation. A long man might help, though.

I looked for a E-Rod thread to make this observation, and couldn't find one, so this is a good spot for it ...

Chaz makes one mistake in that very fine writeup, but it's a mistake everyone makes ... and that's this:

Even so, the [chanegup] is too firm with not enough degree of separation from his fastball for me, even though its where he's most comfortable throwing it in the upper velos and get his best movement.

I did a big study of what makes a chanegup effective. Here are the conclusions about velocity.

1) It's relatively unimportant. A coach or organization should never bother getting a guy to alter his natural or favorite velocity.

2) Be that as it may, all things being equal, the least effective changeups are those thrown at precisely the MLB average velocity differential of 11 mph. (There was nothing in the regression model, which was very complex, that would have forced this result, and it came out right on the nose, to whatever the first decimal place was. Edit: Everything in this regression model, BTW, was massively significant statistically. And a study with a completely different methodology -- I used season averages, they used pitch/fx and PBP -- came up with the exact same finding, although no one noticed (including myself at the time) because the results were counter-intuitive and the author lost track of whether a positive linear weights value was good for the pitcher or the hitter, and reported the results backwards! And everyone puzzled over why a really slow change would be really bad.) The effectiveness versus velocity differential curve is U-shaped, with slower (a la Buchholz) being great and faster (a la Beckett) being good.

So E-Rod's 6 mph velo differential is actually really good.

The reason for this seems clear. If guys misidentify the change, they're going to make weak or no contact regardless of velocity. If they do pick up the spin, their muscle memory is geared to the average chanegeup, and any difference from average is going to disrupt their timing.

Here's another detailed scouting report of Rodriguez from BP's Al Skorupa: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26285

It's largely the same stuff we've been hearing: plus fastball, with the ability to get swings-and-misses, but no plus secondaries. Projection of a number three starter. One interesting new note: Skorupa suggests that Rodriguez's command is significantly better from the windup than from the stretch.

The Lackey trade was curious at the time and nine months later it looks like a major mistake. Lackey was a solid 2A or No. 3 starter and was due to pitch for $500,000 this year. That should have given the RS leverage in working out, let's say, a two-year deal that would have gotten them a SP at a bargain-basement price.

Instead, they traded him for a cooked and injured Craig who has money coming for three years and for Joe Kelly, a SP whose stuff wasn't translating into K's (though his K rate has improved this year despite his other overall ugly numbers).

The 2015 Lackey is still a very good SP. He's putting up an ERA-plus of 122 and a WHIP of 1.17 with the Cards.

Unwind that trade and the trade for Miley (RDLR with the D'backs: ERA-plus is an unimpressive 91 but his FIP is lower than his ERA and his WHIP is virtually the same as Lackey's) and the SP is significantly improved.

Throw in the botched Lester negotiations last spring and it's clear the Red Sox are where they are because of a series of bad organizational decisions. Had better decisions been made, the current team would still have a couple of weak spots in the rotation but the SP would be eminently more fixable through internal options like S. Wright and EdRod than it is now.

Regarding the bullpen I think the answer is at AAA. This is the year they made choices that came back to haunt them. It's the same story year after year. It's not the best that crack the bullpen but who has no options and who is more veteran service time. Maybe this is the year that wasn't the best thing to do. The Sox already DFA Varvano and Mujica.

Now the starter is harder. They are killing the Sox always giving up runs right away. I don't know how much longer they can wait it out. Buch is killing them. This has to be his last year . Eventually Rodriguez and Johnson should get a shot. Maybe at the deadline make a deal they have the money to lock up one more good pitcher.

The lineup will get it toghether with Castillo coming up. I would like them to give JBJ and Brentz a chance. I know they brought up Jackie but a real chance.

I thought Miley was a miss from the start and continue to believe this. Had a slight bit more optimism about Masterson, but still a lot of trepidation on his ability vs. lefties and really relied on the F.O. evals that they were sure his pre-knee injury velo was back. Miss all around. I don't know what defines "solid" for Kelly when his BB and xFIP totals have escalated every year he's been in MLB. The velo's great to see on the FB but if he's the bar for a #5 I think I'd rather have someone like Johnson there and try to minimize the free passes. I really think this guy is better served in small, single-inning does from the pen.

There is some opportunity here, though. Kelly and Masterson to the pen and Miley down to the #5 til you can find a GM at the deadline or more likely in the off-season who thinks he'll break-out like the brain trust at 4 Yawkey Way was so sure he would. But again, you'll likely be selling low with the new contract, even though it's "affordable" it will be more than he probably would've gotten in arb if he continues with this stinker of a year.