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Discussion of Internal Pitching Options
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Post by jmei on May 10, 2015 12:06:50 GMT -5
I don't know what defines "solid" for Kelly when his BB and xFIP totals have escalated every year he's been in MLB. The velo's great to see on the FB but if he's the bar for a #5 I think I'd rather have someone like Johnson there and try to minimize the free passes. I really think this guy is better served in small, single-inning does from the pen. Huh? His xFIPs by year: 4.03, 4.19, 4.19, 3.96. I guess the first three are "escalating," but not really by much, and the fact that his xFIP has significantly improved despite moving to a much more difficult league/park and being a full-time starter is pretty encouraging (his xFIP- improved from 111 in 2013-14 to 98 this year). Yeah, his walk rates have increased, but so have his strikeout rates, and his K-BB% is a career-high 12.8%. Honestly, I'm more optimistic about Kelly now than I was at the beginning of the year. He still can't command his fastball, but the new slider looks like it's going to get swings-and-misses, which, combined with his changing pitch-mix (more four-seamers, less two-seamers), makes me think the uptick in strikeout rate is legit. The ERA is still ugly, largely due to an unsustainably-low LOB% and an elevated HR rate, but the peripherals are league-averagish, which certainly surpasses the bar for a back-end starter. At least based on what I've seen so far, I'm not at all inclined to move Kelly to the bullpen.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
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Post by ericmvan on May 10, 2015 12:22:41 GMT -5
Regardless of believing Miley was a miss, there is no way in hell to predict he'd have the results he has had so far. I mean why would anyone predict a 52 LOB%? Miley's best pitch has always been his two-seamer, and it's easily been his best pitch this year, so why is he only throwing it 33.1% of the time, versus 47.1% two years ago? Meanwhile, he's throwing his slider and curve at career-high rates, and they're both getting hammered. Pitching to his strength (~= better coaching and/or pitch-calling) + better luck -> perfectly adequate back of the rotation guy. As a miss, lumping him with Masterson isn't fair. The one disturbing trend is Zone%: 48.5, 48.3, 46.4, 43.3, 41.3. And his O-Swing has dropped off this year from c. 30% to 23%. If they could improve his control and command, he could still be a mid-rotation guy.
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Post by bstrong on May 10, 2015 12:52:14 GMT -5
Most everyone on the Pitching Staff;both the Starters and Relievers alike have turned into a close-your-eyes-wait-and-see question mark at this point. The only guys I have faith in to hold their ground for the most part is Porcello and Kelly as Starters and Tazawa and Uehera in the Pen. It's a risky move but why not take a chance and shuffle the Starting Rotation in, even if it possibly begins with someone getting 1 day less rest within the tight schedule over next couple of weeks. It's not a guarantee to change things around by any means but I feel the Staff will continue to be this stagnant until a trade for a legit #1 or #2 takes place. Maybe a fairly crazy move of this sort comes with shock-value and wakes some of the Pitching Staff up.
Starters: #1.-Porcello #2.-Kelly #3.-Buchholz #4.-Wright #5.-Miley
Bullpen : CL.-Uehara SR.-Tazawa,Barnes LR. -Masterson,Breslow,Ogando,Layne
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 10, 2015 16:01:00 GMT -5
Regardless of believing Miley was a miss, there is no way in hell to predict he'd have the results he has had so far. I mean why would anyone predict a 52 LOB%? Miley's best pitch has always been his two-seamer, and it's easily been his best pitch this year, so why is he only throwing it 33.1% of the time, versus 47.1% two years ago? Meanwhile, he's throwing his slider and curve at career-high rates, and they're both getting hammered. Pitching to his strength (~= better coaching and/or pitch-calling) + better luck -> perfectly adequate back of the rotation guy. As a miss, lumping him with Masterson isn't fair. The one disturbing trend is Zone%: 48.5, 48.3, 46.4, 43.3, 41.3. And his O-Swing has dropped off this year from c. 30% to 23%. If they could improve his control and command, he could still be a mid-rotation guy. If he's throwing his fastball less and his breaking pitches more - shouldn't we expect his Zone% to be low? Or are those numbers specifically for his fastball?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
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Post by ericmvan on May 10, 2015 21:02:22 GMT -5
Miley's best pitch has always been his two-seamer, and it's easily been his best pitch this year, so why is he only throwing it 33.1% of the time, versus 47.1% two years ago? Meanwhile, he's throwing his slider and curve at career-high rates, and they're both getting hammered. Pitching to his strength (~= better coaching and/or pitch-calling) + better luck -> perfectly adequate back of the rotation guy. As a miss, lumping him with Masterson isn't fair. The one disturbing trend is Zone%: 48.5, 48.3, 46.4, 43.3, 41.3. And his O-Swing has dropped off this year from c. 30% to 23%. If they could improve his control and command, he could still be a mid-rotation guy. If he's throwing his fastball less and his breaking pitches more - shouldn't we expect his Zone% to be low? Or are those numbers specifically for his fastball? Great idea to break it down by pitches. Since the raw Pitch/fx data doesn't perfectly classify four- versus two-seamers or sliders versus curves, we'll combine them. Note the first year was only about 20% of a season. FB Zone%: .508, .506, .506, .461, . 427. Breaking ball Zone%: .330, .369, .306, .356, . 420. Change: . 487, .484, .459, .440, .349. His slider has gone .303, .349, and .451, with runs per 100 pitches going -0.8, 0.4, -4.0. So he's throwing the slider much more often in the zone, and getting it hit much harder. And that is making the decline in his FB and CH command look less severe than it actually is. FB Z-Contact% has been unchanged. Breaking-ball Z-Contact%: .857, .919, .876, .879, 1.000. That's right, 131 breaking balls in the zone this year and 0 swings and misses. FB O-Swing%: .242, .293, .239, .238, .140. So a big collapse in getting guys to chase the FB out of the zone. O-Swing% on breaking balls is down, but not nearly as dramatically. There's been absolutely no change in velocity in any of the pitches over his career, and the only change in movement is increased FB movement this year. So his stuff has been better than ever. His command and control have gone down the tubes.
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Post by whoareyoukarimgarcia on May 10, 2015 21:22:24 GMT -5
Does anyone know if or how closely Vasquez is working with the pitching staff/Swihart during his rehab? His framing skills aside, I wonder how if any of these pitch selection % would be different with his in game management and pitch calling? The reason by most for keeping Swihart in Pawtucket after the CV injury was so he could learn and fine tune pitch selection and game calling. I hope the new pitching coach comes in with a new way to attack hitters in addition to fine tuning mechanics.
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Post by bluechip on May 10, 2015 21:45:49 GMT -5
Does anyone know if or how closely Vasquez is working with the pitching staff/Swihart during his rehab? His framing skills aside, I wonder how if any of these pitch selection % would be different with his in game management and pitch calling? The reason by most for keeping Swihart in Pawtucket after the CV injury was so he could learn and fine tune pitch selection and game calling. I hope the new pitching coach comes in with a new way to attack hitters in addition to fine tuning mechanics. If Swihart or any catcher is having trouble with calling pitched, then the pitches should be called from the bench.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 13, 2015 14:13:57 GMT -5
Here is our internal candidate for the rotation at his last start
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