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Battle for top 10 (protected) draft picks in 2016 draft
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Post by p23w on Sept 20, 2015 9:10:03 GMT -5
Only teams making a real draft pick run are the Brewers and the Phils. Sox have a must win game to avoid elimination.
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Post by p23w on Sept 20, 2015 9:13:06 GMT -5
Brewers and phils are the only teams competing for the draft pick slot. Sox are playing in an elimination game.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 20, 2015 10:27:23 GMT -5
The case for either scenario (protected / doesn't matter) can be made. I want Dombrowski to have to have any advantage possible this winter. They can lose them all for all I care at this point (it's about 2016). The press has been trying to mitigate the lousy year with a finish strong sendoff to 2015. It doesn't matter. Glad you're not the gm. You always think about more than one year or you wind up with the Phillies at some point.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 20, 2015 10:54:31 GMT -5
Well, I am one who probably favors getting the higher draft pick at the expense of winning a few more games....but damn it's hard to hold these kids down. What are you going to do???...bring up the AA rotation? The players, the pitching, the attitude is night and day (relief pitching excepted). I think the protected pick is as good as gone. I would love to see us have that protected pick also, but in all reality what the team is achieving NOW is important to 2016. Dombrowski has to have a good idea going into the winter what he has and what he doesn't to make solid decisions. The productivity of that young outfield and our 2 young lefties in the rotation is HUGELY important! Even the trials and tribulations of Blake Swihart gives much needed data to DD and helps with what needs to be worked on. Look.....I'm as much of a "prospect" hoarder as anyone on this site, but IT IS TIME to play our hand. No more waiting 3 years down the line. This is why I finally have reversed my thinking about signing a 30 year old ace for 6 years of BIG money. The future has started. The games now matter a lot. Yes. It is time to play our hand, but not throw all the chips in the pot for the sake of doing so. IMO it is time to maximize the still outrageous talent of Pedey and Papi as they mimic their primes; and the confluence of likely breakouts by BBC, XB, Swihart/Vasquez, and several members of tbe pitching staff. This is already a contending team, as well as exhilerating. Filling a few voids is all that is needed. Spending big for Price or Cueto for potentially elite production over the next 3 years to complement what is already in place greatly enhances chanes for contention 2016-2019. This, even as the stars on the farm (Espinoza, Kopech, Moncada, Beni, and whomever isn't traded) begin to make their debuts, insuring long term success. Don't need a protected pick to accomplish that.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 20, 2015 11:12:13 GMT -5
Isn't it amazing how quickly a roster turns over in a few years? Before we know it Pedroia's career will be over (and of course Papi's). Just watching a healthy Pedroia over the last week or so has been fun to see what we have been missing. He is still one of the top 20 players in the American League when healthy! A player's career is often less than 10 years and hardly ever as long as David Ortiz's. (It still shocks me that Yaz or Nomar is no longer playing!)
Pedroia's window is growing short. The emergence of productivity from our youngsters has definitely made me think we are closer to contention than I thought just 2 months ago. We have some special pieces. The addition of the right players could put us in contention next season. Do you think everything will go right again for the Jays?
The breakouts by Xander, Mookie, ERod, and hopefully Bradley make me believe we can be real contenders as soon as next season, but only if we upgrade our pitching staff greatly and take on some risk.
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Post by rangoon82 on Sept 26, 2015 17:02:02 GMT -5
Any chance the Sox pull off a protected pick at this point?
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 28, 2015 12:49:34 GMT -5
Any chance the Sox pull off a protected pick at this point? Sure, there's a chance. There's also a chance the Red Sox will finish at .500 or better (if they finish 6-1 or 7-0), and the Red Sox are still not technically eliminated from the 2nd WC (tragic number is 1). As of this morning, the Red Sox can still have a draft position between 7 and 21 (ie, BOS cannot finish with a top 6 draft pick or a bottom 9 draft pick). Currently, BOS would have the 14th pick. Race for top ten pick (losses): 7. MIA ---- (87) 8. DET -3.5 (83) 9. CWS -4.0 (83) 10. SDO -4.0 (83) 11. SEA -5.0 (82) 12. ARI -6.0 (81) 13. TBR -6.0 (81) 14. BOS -6.5 (80)
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alnipper
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Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Sept 28, 2015 15:04:26 GMT -5
It is looking less likely we'll get a protected pick. The good news is our current value of the Sox players is increasing.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 29, 2015 7:35:25 GMT -5
The Red Sox were eliminated from playoff contention late last night.
The Red Sox can still finish at .500 or better (if they finish 5-1 or 6-0).
As of this morning, the Red Sox can still have a draft position between 8 and 18 (ie, BOS cannot finish with a top 7 draft pick or a bottom 12 draft pick). Currently, BOS would have the 14th pick.
Current 8-18 standings (losses):
8. CWS ---- (83) 9. SDO ---- (83) 10. DET ---- (83) 11. SEA -0.5 (83) 12. ARI -2.0 (81) 13. TBR -2.0 (81) 14. BOS -3.0 (80) 15. BAL -3.0 (80) 16. CLE -4.5 (78) 17. WAS -7.0 (76) 18. MIN -8.0 (75)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2015 12:44:52 GMT -5
Ideally, I would have preferred the 8th pick and be the best of the non-dregs of baseball, but at this point, the heck with it. Finishing at or above .500 would be a hell of an accomplishment. I don't think they'll get there as their margin for error is very small, but at this point that's what I hope they do.
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 29, 2015 12:48:38 GMT -5
It's difficult to root for losses -- even if it could eventually help the organization.
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Post by kman22 on Sept 29, 2015 12:49:51 GMT -5
Ideally, I would have preferred the 8th pick and be the best of the non-dregs of baseball, but at this point, the heck with it. Finishing at or above .500 would be a hell of an accomplishment. I don't think they'll get there as their margin for error is very small, but at this point that's what I hope they do. Earlier in the season, I was counting the losses and rooting for a high draft pick (courtesy of the veterans in the bullpen). That went out the window pretty quickly when the team showed some heart. So I'm right there with you, hoping the young guns carry the the Sox to .500 (or better), or, at the very least, a sweep of the Yankees.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 30, 2015 7:11:53 GMT -5
The Red Sox moved into sole possession of 3rd place in the ALE last night. They also now have a positive run differential for the first time since April 25th.
On July 25th, the Red Sox were -72 in run differential. Since that date, they are +76 in run differential in 59 games (34-25, 3rd best record in AL, 7th best record overall since July 25th).
The Red Sox can still finish at .500 or better (if they finish 4-1 or 5-0).
As of this morning, the Red Sox can still have a draft position between 8 and 18 (ie, BOS cannot finish with a top 7 draft pick or a bottom 12 draft pick). Currently, BOS would have the 15th pick.
Current 8-18 standings (losses):
8. SDO ---- (84) 9. DET ---- (84) 10. CWS -1.0 (83) 11. SEA -1.5 (83) 12. ARI -3.0 (81) 13. TBR -3.0 (81) 14. BAL -3.5 (80) 15. BOS -4.0 (80) 16. CLE -5.0 (78) 17. WAS -7.0 (77) 18. MIN -8.5 (75)
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 30, 2015 12:00:55 GMT -5
The Red Sox moved into sole possession of 3rd place in the ALE last night. They also now have a positive run differential for the first time since April 25th. On July 25th, the Red Sox were -72 in run differential. Since that date, they are +76 in run differential in 59 games (34-25, 3rd best record in AL, 7th best record overall since July 25th). The Red Sox can still finish at .500 or better (if they finish 4-1 or 5-0). As of this morning, the Red Sox can still have a draft position between 8 and 18 (ie, BOS cannot finish with a top 7 draft pick or a bottom 12 draft pick). Currently, BOS would have the 15th pick. Current 8-18 standings (losses): 8. SDO ---- (84) 9. DET ---- (84) 10. CWS -1.0 (83) 11. SEA -1.5 (83) 12. ARI -3.0 (81) 13. TBR -3.0 (81) 14. BAL -3.5 (80) 15. BOS -4.0 (80)16. CLE -5.0 (78) 17. WAS -7.0 (77) 18. MIN -8.5 (75) Thanks for the analysis, Amfox. It should be noted that the CWS and Tigers finish the season against each other, so that is 3 more losses guaranteed between the two of them. It sure looks like one more victory by the Sox will scotch any idea of a protected pick, and even were they to lose out, it might still not be bad [good] enough.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 30, 2015 12:02:42 GMT -5
I would love to see us have that protected pick also, but in all reality what the team is achieving NOW is important to 2016. Dombrowski has to have a good idea going into the winter what he has and what he doesn't to make solid decisions. The productivity of that young outfield and our 2 young lefties in the rotation is HUGELY important! Even the trials and tribulations of Blake Swihart gives much needed data to DD and helps with what needs to be worked on. Look.....I'm as much of a "prospect" hoarder as anyone on this site, but IT IS TIME to play our hand. No more waiting 3 years down the line. This is why I finally have reversed my thinking about signing a 30 year old ace for 6 years of BIG money. The future has started. The games now matter a lot. Yes. It is time to play our hand, but not throw all the chips in the pot for the sake of doing so. IMO it is time to maximize the still outrageous talent of Pedey and Papi as they mimic their primes; and the confluence of likely breakouts by BBC, XB, Swihart/Vasquez, and several members of tbe pitching staff. This is already a contending team, as well as exhilerating. Filling a few voids is all that is needed. Spending big for Price or Cueto for potentially elite production over the next 3 years to complement what is already in place greatly enhances chanes for contention 2016-2019. This, even as the stars on the farm (Espinoza, Kopech, Moncada, Beni, and whomever isn't traded) begin to make their debuts, insuring long term success. Don't need a protected pick to accomplish that. As much as I dislike Price and his mouth, he seems like an excellent bet to age well. He still throws fairly hard, and is having an excellent year. His command is superb and he knows how to pitch. Most importantly, he's battle-tested in the AL...and in the AL East when it had three 90-win teams. And realistically, the mouth/attitude I don't like are probably part of the edge that makes him great (and that I'd probably love if he were on my team). I was originally on the Cueto bandwagon, but I'm all-in on Price. I think he provides at least 3-4 more years of premium production, maybe 5 at the outside. On a 7/210 contract, that's palatable. His presence would allow the Sox some flexibility to take risks (trade Miley, which saves 6/8/12M the next three years, put Owens in the rotation) at the back end. He's a pretty safe bet to pencil in for 200 IP. No draft pick lost. No prospects traded. Huge hole filled. Leaves basically just two quality bullpen arms to add, and the offseason is essentially done, other than re-signing Rich Hill and adding a couple depth/bench/role-players. The major benefit, though, is that it gives the Sox a huge group of tradeable prospects ahead of the deadline. And, a half-season to further develop their prospects (most of who are at A-ball, including Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, Espinoza, Kopech, Guerra, Longhi, Chavis, etc.) and sort out who's redundant. A guy like Margot, who will probably start out in AA, becomes more valuable if he makes AAA and performs...as a high-ceiling MLB-ready prospect, he becomes a deal headliner for a major talent, should they want to acquire one in June/July. Price also means much less dependence on Buchholz as a quality pitcher. Losing Buchholz to injury or trading him becomes much less of an issue with a dependable #1.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 30, 2015 12:12:06 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dodgers go all-in on Price while letting Greinke walk to take the extra pick.
Random stat - Red Sox have scored 5.2 and given up 3.7 runs per game since August 18th while going 24-14 in that time.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 30, 2015 22:51:01 GMT -5
The Red Sox can still finish at .500 or better if they finish 3-1 or 4-0.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 1, 2015 0:44:47 GMT -5
After tonight's results, the Sox can finish with no worse than a tie for the 10th worst record in MLB. Do the Sox win the tiebreaker with the White Sox? If they don't, their win tonight officially vaulted them out of protected pick status. But at this point, even if they have the advantage of that tiebreaker, so many things would have to break exactly right for them to end up with the 10th pick that I think it's safe to say that the protected pick is out the window.
The heck with losing out -- might as well win out at this point.
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 1, 2015 8:59:51 GMT -5
After tonight's results, the Sox can finish with no worse than a tie for the 10th worst record in MLB. Do the Sox win the tiebreaker with the White Sox? If they don't, their win tonight officially vaulted them out of protected pick status. But at this point, even if they have the advantage of that tiebreaker, so many things would have to break exactly right for them to end up with the 10th pick that I think it's safe to say that the protected pick is out the window. The heck with losing out -- might as well win out at this point. Yes, the Red Sox "win" the tiebreaker with CHW (and all other potential teams, except ARI and MIN). As of this morning, the Red Sox can still have a draft position between 10 and 18 (ie, BOS cannot finish with a top 9 draft pick or a bottom 12 draft pick). Currently, BOS would have the 15th pick.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 1, 2015 9:58:32 GMT -5
I can't really see the Sox managing to stay in the top-10, despite the heroic efforts of the bullpen. The young guys are developing too well, and Kelly and Porcello look a little too good right now (although Porcello just had one good start, maybe he can still chip in for a protected pick) ... I wouldn't be too surprised to see the Sox fall all the way to pick 14-15 at this point. Tragically, I go into every game now thinking the Sox have a chance to win. Take out Kelly and sub in Owens/Rodriguez, and I am Toastradamus. Except they may fall even further than 15 ... I have to say, too, that Lovullo has done an amazing job with the bullpen. Those guys are really not good at all, but he's managed to cobble it together somehow.
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 2, 2015 7:32:46 GMT -5
With yesterday's loss and TB/BAL wins, the Red Sox are tied with TB and BAL for 3rd/last place in the ALE. The Red Sox can still finish at .500 if they win their final three games.
As of this morning, the Red Sox will not have a protected pick in the 2016 draft. They can still have a draft position between 11 and 16 (ie, BOS cannot finish with a top 10 draft pick or a bottom 14 draft pick). Currently, BOS would have the 13th pick.
Current 11-16 standings (losses):
11. SEA ---- (84) 12. ARI -3.0 (81) 13. BOS -3.0 (81) 14. TBR -3.0 (81) 15. BAL -3.0 (81) 16. CLE -3.5 (80)*
*CLE has had one game cancelled, so it will only play 161 games, max.
Battle for the first pick (final series):
1. PHI ---- (vs. MIA) 2. CIN -1.0 (at PIT) 3. ATL -2.0 (vs. STL)
Tiebreakers go to PHI, CIN, ATL, in order.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 2, 2015 10:00:05 GMT -5
Sorry, but I'd rather have the #12 pick than the #16 pick. I don't like the pitching matchups for us vs. Cleveland this weekend, anyway. I suspect we lose 2 out of 3, which might be good enough for pick 12.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 2, 2015 10:55:16 GMT -5
It doesn't matter at all to me anymore. I'd like them to finish third, but I don't think anything's that important. The difference between third and last is purely sentimental, as is the difference between .500 and sub-.500. The difference between 12 and 16 isn't enough to get me excited either way, either.
So, I hope Hank has a good start tonight, Mookie and Xander finish strong, and no one gets hurt. Other than that ... meh, see you next year. It was a fun August & September after a miserable first four months.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 2, 2015 12:40:09 GMT -5
The only thing left to hope for is a sweep of Cleveland to get the Sox to .500. If they lose tonight, they might as well lose the rest of the series too for all I care.
What's crazy is that the past few weeks are the only time I've really rooted hard for the Sox to win since April. I like what they have now and look forward to the future. Once it became obvious they were no longer one of the dreg teams, and that they weren't the worst of the rest of the non-dregs (that lucky team will pick 8th in the draft), then I started rooting for them to get to .500.
I don't think they're going to make it unfortunately, but it was fun to care about it. The Sox hadn't given me much to care about the past couple of years. The future can't get here soon enough (look forward to 2016, but I think it will be in 2017 and/or 2018 where the Sox are really ready to shine.) as far as I'm concerned.
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 3, 2015 14:31:23 GMT -5
As of this morning, the Red Sox can still have a draft position between 12 and 16 (ie, BOS cannot finish with a top 11 draft pick or a bottom 14 draft pick). Currently, BOS would have the 13th pick.
Current 12-16 standings (losses):
12. ARI ---- (82) 13. BOS ---- (82) 14. TBR ---- (82) 15. BAL -1.0 (81)^ 16. CLE -1.5 (80)*
Tiebreakers go to ARI, BOS, TBR, BAL, in order. ^ Gives effect to game 1 win vs. MFY on Sat. afternoon *CLE has had one game cancelled, so it will only play 161 games, max.
Battle for the first pick (final series):
1. PHI ---- (vs. MIA) 2. CIN -0.5 (at PIT)
CIN has lost 13 straight games. Tiebreaker goes to PHI.
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