What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?

For all we know, that could have happened.

Clearly the thing that will ultimately save the Red Sox is choosing Tommy Layne over Drake Britton.

Well the Sox showed today what will fix the team: seven runs a game and strong relief pitching. Then, no worries.

With the 'Kelly or Wright' debate - my vote is for Johnson.

Wright showed today how valuable he can be from the pen and for this team to be ultra competitive it could really use one more plus starter. I don't know if Johnson is the answer, but it's better to find out now rather than wait until the trade deadline. He looks ready (by the numbers) and it could save a few prospects.

Then trade Kelly and a good prospect for Chapman (trade Breslow for cash) and suddenly the weak pitching staff is the team's strength.

If Johnson isn't the answer then you can always go back to Kelly/Wright or focus on Cueto/Hamels

An update to the "how bad has the luck been?" study ... if you've watched the games, you know they've had good luck on infield hits, and that reduces the bad luck on balls in play to 3 wins, roughly. Xander has had 6 more infield hits than predicted by my regression model, but that model explains a lot less of IFH% (r = .40) than the overall BABIP model explained its variable, so a couple of those 6 hits may have been skill, not luck.

More in the future ...

He has a 100 xFIP- this year, which ranks 61st out of 146 MLB starters with 30 IP or more. That's already a #3 near the 3/4 borderline.

First 6 starts, 3.93 xFIP, 3.95 SIERA, 6.35 ERA.

Subsequent 5 starts: 3.90 xFIP, 4.05 SIERA, 4.15 ERA.

There's a reason why people look at xFIP and SIERA to project pitchers going forwards, rather than ERA.

And a reason why they left him in the rotation and made Wright the long man.

They aren't going to manufacture a chance for Johnson to join the rotation. The rotation is just fine right now.

Johnson has such a good record because he has superior command and control, not because he has outstanding stuff. Kelly has outstanding stuff but inconsistent command and control.

My guess, and that is all that it is, is that Johnson will be a good major league pitcher, fourth or fifth in the rotation, but that Kelly could be an ace if he harnesses his command and control.

I think it makes sense to stick with Kelly as long as reasonable. However, I also think it makes sense to take a look at Johnson at an opportune time. It won't hurt anyone to give the other starters an extra day of rest to create an opening for Johnson.

If he did well, it sure would increase the options, and opportunities, for the Sox at trade deadline time.

I just don't get why they can't do both? Johnson has nothing left to prove in the minors. He is what he is. Now it's just a matter of seeing how he translates in the majors. Kelly on the other hand needs repetition and to focus on command and control. Why not send him down for a few weeks and see how Johnson and Kelly both look by the all star break?

I don't think teams will value Johnson until he proves himself a bit at the ML level. Think Michael Bowden. He was great in the minors and Theo and the staff tried to unload him on someone, but couldn't.

(Not saying Johnson is Michael Bowden)

Napoli in the major leagues: .212/.316/.408
Brentz in Triple-A: .229/.307/.385

I take that as you are agreeing with me, unless you think Johnson is the great pitcher that we've been looking for.

No, because I think you're assuming that other teams don't know what he is or something. Teams aren't looking at stats when they make trades - everyone has scouts looking at everyone, and they have first-hand reports.

I think you sell high on a guy like Chih-Hsien Chiang, who suddenly pops up and looks like he may have figured something out where teams won't have nearly as much data on the "new" version of that player. I'm still stunned they were able to deal him before he turned back into a pumpkin though - even that sort of deal is rare.

And as mentioned above, a legit #4 or whatever is a very valuable piece of a major league team, especially if you control him for 6 years cheaply.