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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 8, 2015 12:27:52 GMT -5
[I just don't get why they can't do both? Johnson has nothing left to prove in the minors. He is what he is. Now it's just a matter of seeing how he translates in the majors. Kelly on the other hand needs repetition and to focus on command and control. Why not send him down for a few weeks and see how Johnson and Kelly both look by the all star break? Because (a) they think (as do I) that Kelly is a better pitcher than Johnson and (b) three weeks in the minors is not going to help Kelly develop his command more than three weeks in the majors would. So,it's safe to say that a pitcher struggling to throw strikes is a better bet than a control guy who teens have yet to see over the next few starts? |
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 8, 2015 12:35:25 GMT -5
Because (a) they think (as do I) that Kelly is a better pitcher than Johnson and (b) three weeks in the minors is not going to help Kelly develop his command more than three weeks in the majors would. So,it's safe to say that a pitcher struggling to throw strikes is a better bet than a control guy who teens have yet to see over the next few starts? It's safe to say that Kelly would do as good or better than Johnson and that any potential improvement isn't worth screwing with either of them. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 8, 2015 13:50:29 GMT -5
Because (a) they think (as do I) that Kelly is a better pitcher than Johnson and (b) three weeks in the minors is not going to help Kelly develop his command more than three weeks in the majors would. So,it's safe to say that a pitcher struggling to throw strikes is a better bet than a control guy who teens have yet to see over the next few starts? Considering that the club seems to be concerned about Johnson's workload (pulling him after 6 perfect innings in his last start before skipping what would've been his next one), now may not be the time to get a look. May as well ride Kelly while he's effective, no? Sending a guy to Triple-A after two good starts really isn't the message to send here, I don't think. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 8, 2015 16:52:54 GMT -5
[I just don't get why they can't do both? Johnson has nothing left to prove in the minors. He is what he is. Now it's just a matter of seeing how he translates in the majors. Kelly on the other hand needs repetition and to focus on command and control. Why not send him down for a few weeks and see how Johnson and Kelly both look by the all star break? Because (a) they think (as do I) that Kelly is a better pitcher than Johnson and (b) three weeks in the minors is not going to help Kelly develop his command more than three weeks in the majors would.It's probably worse because he wouldn't have to be nearly as fine with his command in AAA. The minors aren't a place where players magically get better; they're only going to help a player if there's something that he specifically needs to work on against weaker competition. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 8, 2015 20:56:26 GMT -5
I think the big question is 'how late can you wait on Johnson to know what you have before the trade deadline?'. I'm thinking.....3 more weeks.
This isn't anything against Kelly, it may be that he turns out to be the keeper and someone else (miley?) Is the one needing a phantom do down the line.
Overall I think a control pitcher has a much better ceiling than what they are usually given credit for. No idea if Johnson is one of those Buehrle types, just eager to find out.
In the end, I bet someone gets hurt and this whole debate is moot. But at least it give us something to talk about in June.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 8, 2015 21:08:09 GMT -5
I think the big question is 'how late can you wait on Johnson to know what you have before the trade deadline?'. I'm thinking.....3 more weeks. ... In the end, I bet someone gets hurt and this whole debate is moot. But at least it give us something to talk about in June. It's not the Sox job to give us something to talk about. It's to win games. Johnson can pitch in AAA pretty much all year. He'll likely get a few starts in Boston, maybe more. He'll be just as valuable next year. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 10, 2015 10:30:22 GMT -5
I'd bring JBJ up. and as strange as this seems I'd play him a good chunk against LHP, plug HanRam into the DH spot and slide Betts to LF.
Ortiz has a .286 OPS vs. LHP this year and a .680 overall. This isn't one month this is 1/3 of the season and he is 39. If his options vest...it could be even uglier next year. We should at least be limiting his at bats in case he can't turn it around and this is him hitting the wall. Also our defense would be significantly better in LF and CF.
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 10, 2015 11:38:26 GMT -5
the team needs to move along from the big deep black hole that is Mike Napoli.
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Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2015 11:43:56 GMT -5
. This isn't one month this is 1/3 of the season So it's... two months? |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 10, 2015 11:50:52 GMT -5
. This isn't one month this is 1/3 of the season So it's... two months? 2 1/2 almost, 10 weeks if you wish. That's a pretty long time for a guy to slump. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2015 12:01:28 GMT -5
He's only really slumping versus LHP, and he has all of 70 PAs versus LHP this year. That's basically three weeks' worth of full-time at-bats.
Yes, it's troublesome that he's been so bad versus lefties, but let's keep the sample sizes in mind, here.
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Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2015 12:04:58 GMT -5
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 10, 2015 12:06:23 GMT -5
SOX management said they are willing to do whatever it takes to "fix" the team. But they are sticking with Ortiz.
If you believe they have to give up on Ortiz or give up on the season ... looks like they will give up on the season.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 10, 2015 12:07:17 GMT -5
He's only really slumping versus LHP, and he has all of 70 PAs versus LHP this year. That's basically three weeks' worth of full-time at-bats. Yes, it's troublesome that he's been so bad versus lefties, but let's keep the sample sizes in mind, here. Which is why I suggested starting to sit him vs. LHP. I understand it's a small sample size and don't exactly suggest this to be implemented tonight (because you know...I'm sure the Red Sox value my suggestions). At some point you can't ignore this is the worst start of his life....and he's 39. But if he's still putting up a .286 OPS by mid June to the end of the month I'd make that move. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2015 12:18:25 GMT -5
SOX management said they are willing to do whatever it takes to "fix" the team. But they are sticking with Ortiz. If you believe they have to give up on Ortiz or give up on the season ... looks like they will give up on the season. Yes, because the difference between the playoffs and the number one overall pick is Ortiz' 100 PAs versus lefties the rest of the season. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2015 12:20:21 GMT -5
He's only really slumping versus LHP, and he has all of 70 PAs versus LHP this year. That's basically three weeks' worth of full-time at-bats. Yes, it's troublesome that he's been so bad versus lefties, but let's keep the sample sizes in mind, here. Which is why I suggested starting to sit him vs. LHP. I understand it's a small sample size and don't exactly suggest this to be implemented tonight (because you know...I'm sure the Red Sox value my suggestions). At some point you can't ignore this is the worst start of his life....and he's 39. But if he's still putting up a .286 OPS by mid June to the end of the month I'd make that move. I don't necessarily disagree strongly with the idea of sitting Ortiz versus LHP some going forward, especially because DHing Hanley whenever you can is probably a net positive as well. I'm just saying that the case that Ortiz can't hit lefties is not as strong as you might think. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 10, 2015 12:29:21 GMT -5
Which is why I suggested starting to sit him vs. LHP. I understand it's a small sample size and don't exactly suggest this to be implemented tonight (because you know...I'm sure the Red Sox value my suggestions). At some point you can't ignore this is the worst start of his life....and he's 39. But if he's still putting up a .286 OPS by mid June to the end of the month I'd make that move. I don't necessarily disagree strongly with the idea of sitting Ortiz versus LHP some going forward, especially because DHing Hanley whenever you can is probably a net positive as well. I'm just saying that the case that Ortiz can't hit lefties is not as strong as you might think. If we are looking at the larger sample size of his career then yes, he's actually hit LHP better than RHP some seasons. However, at some point the joy ride is going to end with Papi and that could come at any moment. Unfortunately, we're never going to now if he's in a slump or he's done....until that slump just doesn't end. Given his age, I'd be ok sitting him a few games here in there because if he does NOT ever pick it up this year I'd hate to have his option vest. Also, I should say that I'm really really hoping David Ortiz goes on one of those mammoth hot streaks where he makes people like me look like a fool for ever doubting him. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 10, 2015 12:54:10 GMT -5
the team needs to move along from the big deep black hole that is Mike Napoli. .242/.341/.492 since May 1. Seriously, why does everyone still think he's slumping? I mean he had a sorta tough last seven days or so (.231/.259/.385 since June 3), but I really don't get it. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2015 13:16:52 GMT -5
the team needs to move along from the big deep black hole that is Mike Napoli. .242/.341/.492 since May 1. Seriously, why does everyone still think he's slumping? I mean he had a sorta tough last seven days or so (.231/.259/.385 since June 3), but I really don't get it. I think some of it is just that when he's hitting poorly, he really looks like he's hitting poorly. Lots of swings-and-misses, taken strikes 3s, etc. And one of his primary strengths is taking lots of walks, which is pretty unsexy. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 10, 2015 14:05:00 GMT -5
I think the big question is 'how late can you wait on Johnson to know what you have before the trade deadline?'. I'm thinking.....3 more weeks. ... In the end, I bet someone gets hurt and this whole debate is moot. But at least it give us something to talk about in June. It's not the Sox job to give us something to talk about. It's to win games. Johnson can pitch in AAA pretty much all year. He'll likely get a few starts in Boston, maybe more. He'll be just as valuable next year. Not really sure where your first point came from as a was referring to posters and not the Red Sox (although I think the Red Sox marketing department would disagree with you). Chris made a good point that they are managing his work load safely, but I wonder if that's so they get more out of him at the big league level this year. I'd much rather see what they have in Johnson sooner rather than later. No problem sending him back down to work on stuff and there isnt a 40 man crunch right now. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 10, 2015 16:25:09 GMT -5
Good read, I find that very encouraging. |
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Post by arzjake on Jun 10, 2015 19:41:36 GMT -5
the team needs to move along from the big deep black hole that is Mike Napoli. 72 - 336 .214 .720 OPS, since 14 All Star Break .. 13 was lightning in a bottle. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 10, 2015 21:33:25 GMT -5
the team needs to move along from the big deep black hole that is Mike Napoli. .242/.341/.492 since May 1. Seriously, why does everyone still think he's slumping? I mean he had a sorta tough last seven days or so (.231/.259/.385 since June 3), but I really don't get it. Probably because it's hard to notice improvement when you're going from terrible to mediocre and that many have just about given up on this season. |
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 10, 2015 23:40:40 GMT -5
Good read, I find that very encouraging. what the article doesn't make completely clear is that it's reasonable for the Red Sox to play up to their original projected winning percentage for the rest of the season NOT to actually reach the original projection which would be the gamblers fallacy If the Red Sox play from now till the end of the year as they were originally projected to play they won't win 80 games.and will be spending October at home. Season over. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 11, 2015 6:42:48 GMT -5
Yeah, the Red Sox now need to outperform their projections going forward to make the playoffs. Per Fangraphs' projections, they have the fifth-highest projected winning percentage over the rest of the season (53.1% winning pct). Unfortunately, that'd still only be good for a projected 81 wins, which is probably not going to be enough. Their playoff odds are down to 11.1% division and 16.5% wild card (Fangraphs) and 10.8% division, 13.5% wild card (BP). That's still decent odds, but it'll be an uphill battle.
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