What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?

There are a couple of developments this year that I think are partly responsible for the hitting problems of some of the Sox players, particularly those known for good strike zone judgment and patient batting, such as Ortiz and Napoli and maybe Betts.

The strike zone has changed. It is lower and sometimes wider than anytime I can recall. And maybe as a result of trying to adjust to the new strike zone, umpires are not as consistent in their strike calling.

Also, pitchers are throwing more first and second pitch strikes and the Sox are receiving fewer walks than in any season in many years. I calculated the average walks per game for the Sox each year back through 2003. This year the average is 2.85, the lowest rate in that period. Last year's rate of 2.92 was the second lowest. The rate has been dropping since 2009 when it was 4.07. The rates in the World Series years: 2013: 3.59, 2007: 4.25. 2004: 4.07. The drop from the peak year of 2007 to now is nearly one and half walks a game, or about 30 percent fewer walks.

I can't watch many of the games here, but I have listened to the radio broadcasts of nearly all of them. The radio guys constantly are commenting on the strike zone and, in particular, the problems that Napoli and Ortiz seem to be having with it. It seems that most of the time Napoli has two strikes on him before he swings the bat. Napoli never has been known for complaining about the calls of the umpires but he is doing it quite a bit this year. Ortiz always has been a complainer but the calls this year seem to be bothering him more than ever.

I think the hitters are having a very hard time adjusting to the changes, in part because the new strike zone is not consistent. It isn't clear how far below the knee it has gone, and it changes from umpire to umpire and from inning to inning.

I'd love to see MLB allow managers to challenge 10-12 pitches per game. Literally takes 3-4 seconds per challenge. A minute or so per game x2. Or, the amount of time it takes Buchholz to get ready to throw a pitch.

This is a really great year to be a seller. How many teams are really out of the playoff picture in the AL right now? I count Oakland, and even they have a positive run differential so they're probably on the verge of ripping off a 12-2 streak and getting back into it. So really we have zero teams in the AL right now who have no realistic shot at the playoffs. This creates an opportunity to corner the market and be the sole seller between now and the deadline.

Napoli, Victorino, Breslow are the only year-end FA guys and not really sure what you can really get for them unless Napoli heats up and some team with a poor 1B/DH situation needs a bat. But if you're willing to auction off Tazawa, who is under team control next year as well you could potentially get another Eduardo Rodriguez-level prospect.

No chance this happens. MIL and PHI are already selling, and I'd expect OAK to move in that direction soon. This ownership is not punting the year in mid-June.

Tazawa is not going to bring another Rodriguez. That kind of deal happens only about once in a decade. It takes about that long for GMs to stop thinking that they might make the same kind of mistake that Baltimore made.

The truth is the Sox have no players we would want them to sell who would bring significant value from other teams. If the Sox are going to make trades that add value to the team, value will have to be given up, and that means the top prospects or the young guys on the team now.

Barring a turnaround very soon, a significant improvement in the hitting,this season is going to be lost. If that becomes obvious, then some players should be jettisoned. But there won't much value coming in return. The value will come, if it comes, from making room for some guys at Pawtucket, or by making bigger deals that include good players on both sides.

This will not happen primarily due to fan and management emotions, but here's what would probably make the most sense looking to the future:

Trade for Prospects: Ortiz, Napoli, Sandoval (eat a bit of the contract), Victorino, Breslow (or DFA him)
Shop Actively: Uehara, Tazawa, Layne, Buchholz

Moving all of these guys would clear up $40 million for next year, not including the $31 million from the guys hitting FA at the end of the season. Even if you ate some of the contracts, you still could have $40-50+ million to spend in the offseason. That leaves you with this lineup:

C: Swihart
1B: Craig/Nava
2B: Pedroia
SS: Bogaerts
3B: Holt
LF: Castillo
CF: Bradley
RF: Betts
DH: Ramirez

Can we argue that this lineup with the defensive improvements is much worse than what we've currently got? Plus you pick-up some prospects, free up a lot of money, and get younger.

Good point on Ortiz. Napoli, Victorino, and Breslow you're just trying to get anything in a wasted year. Sandoval is admitting a mistake yes. Layne: A lot of scouts have talked him up and he would probably fetch a lot. Relievers are fairly fungible, especially middle relievers with average stuff. He probably commands far more than he's worth in the trade market.

All the players would be $71 million less than we spent this year.

Which, as we've covered, is basically no one.

Napoli is a FA at the end of the year and the Sox have shown no interest in extending him. Ramirez has been worth significant negative value at LF while Ortiz has struggled mightily at the plate. You don't think Bradley could put up similar numbers while greatly improving the defense? I'm not saying Craig or Nava are the long-term answer, but you might as well get something for the vets while you ride out a losing season.

Assuming I am reading your scenario correctly (Ortiz gone, Hanley to DH, and Bradley to LF) then no, I doubt Bradley could match Ortiz' almost .900 OPS against RHP this season (another reason why Ortiz needs to be platooned with Hanley at DH for the rest of the season, his numbers against LHP are beyond horrible).  Although the defensive upgrade would most likely be enormous, so it really may not matter in the long run.

Eh, there is absolutely no reason to show interest to the general public even if you have such interest. It is also just plain too early to make a call on Napoli. There are a lot of moving parts involved. Before the season I would have said the main factor in deciding whether to extend Napoli is Napoli's performance. Right now I feel more like there are bigger factors: I can see Napoli getting extended only if Ramirez figures out LF or Ortiz' option does not vest.