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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
danr
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Posts: 1,871 
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Post by danr on Jun 13, 2015 9:09:36 GMT -5
Hanley said recently he does not want to return to the infield. He doesn't think his body can handle it. He is an outfielder or a DH, nothing else. I think he is the likely successor to Ortiz. It is just a matter of time, and that time may be sooner rather than later.
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Post by benjaminbuttons on Jun 13, 2015 9:31:16 GMT -5
Ya he said he didnt want to bend over lol, so first base seems unlikely.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 13, 2015 10:02:53 GMT -5
Given that Napoli looks like a guy who is in decline, So you've already made up your mind about Napoli. As a fan, sure, you can do that. I'd rather wait until all the data is in and I sure hope that the front office will do so as well rather than judging prematurely. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 13, 2015 10:29:14 GMT -5
Hanley said recently he does not want to return to the infield. He doesn't think his body can handle it. He is an outfielder or a DH, nothing else. I think he is the likely successor to Ortiz. It is just a matter of time, and that time may be sooner rather than later. The whole "Hanley to 1B" thing makes absolutely no sense to me. How can you look at that guy in left and think that it's a good idea to involve him in a large majority of the ground ball outs that the Red Sox attempt to record? For now I think you do the Ortiz/Hanley DH platoon thing and give Hanley all of his off days against righties. They can re-evaluate that if Hanley can improve as an outfielder (and I still think there's a decent chance that he can); otherwise they're just going to have to wait for Ortiz to shuffle off this 25-man coil. |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 13, 2015 10:42:45 GMT -5
Hanley said recently he does not want to return to the infield. He doesn't think his body can handle it. He is an outfielder or a DH, nothing else. I think he is the likely successor to Ortiz. It is just a matter of time, and that time may be sooner rather than later. The whole "Hanley to 1B" thing makes absolutely no sense to me. How can you look at that guy in left and think that it's a good idea to involve him in a large majority of the ground ball outs that the Red Sox attempt to record? For now I think you do the Ortiz/Hanley DH platoon thing and give Hanley all of his off days against righties. They can re-evaluate that if Hanley can improve as an outfielder (and I still think there's a decent chance that he can); otherwise they're just going to have to wait for Ortiz to shuffle off this 25-man coil. Hanley put too much weight on. Not fat like Sandoval. He needs to drop 10-15 pounds and he'll be better off. He's not a NG. He's a baseball player. If he wants to bulk up when Papi retires and he's the full-time DH. Do it at that point. Hanley is the only thumper in the line-up once Ortiz leaves. Napoli is toast. We're going to need Hanley's bat going forward. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2015 16:42:38 GMT -5
I'm not sure anything can be done to fix this team as long as the current front office, which is very bad at talent evaluation, remains unchanged. m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/55318198/"For weeks, Cherington had spoken with the White Sox about Peavy. But the clubs didn't have a direct match. The Red Sox had no interest in including Middlebrooks in that swap." |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 13, 2015 16:53:11 GMT -5
Given that Napoli looks like a guy who is in decline, So you've already made up your mind about Napoli. As a fan, sure, you can do that. I'd rather wait until all the data is in and I sure hope that the front office will do so as well rather than judging prematurely. I think we have a good sample size. And if you have watched him, you know he isn't as good as he was two years ago. The guy wasn't exactly spectacular last year and he isn't getting any younger. I'm not sure what you're waiting for or what you think the payoff is going to be. The next time the Sox are a seriously competitive team Napoli won't be the 1b. |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,532
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Post by nomar on Jun 13, 2015 17:02:35 GMT -5
I'm not sure anything can be done to fix this team as long as the current front office, which is very bad at talent evaluation, remains unchanged. m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/55318198/"For weeks, Cherington had spoken with the White Sox about Peavy. But the clubs didn't have a direct match. The Red Sox had no interest in including Middlebrooks in that swap." WMB may end up figuring it out and being the 2.5 WAR player scouts saw him as. I think he got rushed big time after starting so hot in 2012. Same thing happened with JBJ, and Bogaerts as well. These kids had a lot of potential, and a lot of minor league success, but they still could have used PAs in AAA. They needed to struggle, and learn how to adjust and fix their flaws before getting exposed at the major league level. I don't think this would have gotten rid of their adjustment curves, but it would've helped them. We threw WMB, JBJ, and Bogaerts into the fire without a good backup option for them. They struggled, and they lost confidence almost completely. Bogaert's is doing a lot better this year, but still has lost his power, and who knows when he's find that again. JBJ is doing very well in AAA, which is a good sign. And WMB has been above replacement level for the Padres, which didn't seem likely. They needed time, but weren't in an organization ready to give them time to struggle. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are less extreme cases of this as well. They both started great in their first full seasons, then came down to earth and struggled at the plate comparatively. They were both rushed too. Every team wants a young star, but teams have tended to force the issue a little too soon. This year we have Betts and Swihart in their first years playing a large number of games, and before the season many were talking about what we should do with Vazquez and JBJ long term. We're lucky we have cheap backup options like them under control for as long as we do. Unfortunately, Swihart is in a position where he's pretty much our only option with our best two catchers hurt. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2015 17:15:32 GMT -5
I'm not sure anything can be done to fix this team as long as the current front office, which is very bad at talent evaluation, remains unchanged. m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/55318198/"For weeks, Cherington had spoken with the White Sox about Peavy. But the clubs didn't have a direct match. The Red Sox had no interest in including Middlebrooks in that swap." WMB may end up figuring it out and being the 2.5 WAR player scouts saw him as. I think he got rushed big time after starting so hot in 2012. Same thing happened with JBJ, and Bogaerts as well. These kids had a lot of potential, and a lot of minor league success, but they still could have used PAs in AAA. They needed to struggle, and learn how to adjust and fix their flaws before getting exposed at the major league level. I don't think this would have gotten rid of their adjustment curves, but it would've helped them. We threw WMB, JBJ, and Bogaerts into the fire without a good backup option for them. They struggled, and they lost confidence almost completely. Bogaert's is doing a lot better this year, but still has lost his power, and who knows when he's find that again. JBJ is doing very well in AAA, which is a good sign. And WMB has been above replacement level for the Padres, which didn't seem likely. They needed time, but weren't in an organization ready to give them time to struggle.Manny Machado and Bryce Harper are less extreme cases of this as well. They both started great in their first full seasons, then came down to earth and struggled at the plate comparatively. They were both rushed too. Every team wants a young star, but teams have tended to force the issue a little too soon. This year we have Betts and Swihart in their first years playing a large number of games, and before the season many were talking about what we should do with Vazquez and JBJ long term. We're lucky we have cheap backup options like them under control for as long as we do. Unfortunately, Swihart is in a position where he's pretty much our only option with our best two catchers hurt. I like what you said here. What's up with the level of impatience in Boston anyway? Is it the team reacting to media scrutiny? If so, why should that kind of tail wagging the dog relationship even exist when ownership also owns the town's biggest newspaper? |
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 13, 2015 21:50:08 GMT -5
I'm not sure anything can be done to fix this team as long as the current front office, which is very bad at talent evaluation, remains unchanged. m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/55318198/"For weeks, Cherington had spoken with the White Sox about Peavy. But the clubs didn't have a direct match. The Red Sox had no interest in including Middlebrooks in that swap." Don't you think this is a little unfair? |
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Post by dcsoxfan on Jun 13, 2015 22:51:44 GMT -5
Django,
The impatience comes (I think) from trying to generate sufficient revenue to support a payroll commensurate with that of the Yankees in a market approximately equal to that of the Nationals or the Braves. To generate that kind of revenue -- especially since voters of Massachusetts have wisely chosen not to lavish them with the level of corporate welfare many other teams (including the Yankees) receive -- the Red Sox have to charge a lot for their product. And to justify what they charge, they feel pressure to produce a contender every year (which may be counter-productive).
The Red Sox FO is frequently characterized as mercenary or overly publicity conscious; I think that unfair. When you compare the Red Sox payroll and market to that of the other 29 teams, they are clearly among the leaders in reinvesting revenue in their product.
Having seen three championships in a decade, I would love them to take a high-risk, high-reward approach and roll the dice on their prospects. Now that I know what a championship feels like, I'd like to go all in on something that would really make Yankee fans jealous -- I'd like to see them show a little patience and go for a dynasty (or at least back-to-back divisional crowns).
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,020
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 13, 2015 22:51:46 GMT -5
A lot of fingers have been pointed at Cherington, but it's mostly second guessing.
This isn't: as soon as Hanigan got hurt, I said we should trade for Martin Maldonado or Carlos Corporan, and at the same time I pointed out the need to get another quality setup guy for the pen (even throwing out Papelbon's name). I remain perplexed that neither happened. (Yeah, I know that both catchers have been below replacement level this year, but that's not including pitch framing, and they're both excellent.)
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wbcd
Rookie
Posts: 33
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Post by wbcd on Jun 14, 2015 1:26:52 GMT -5
Speier wrote the other day that the Sox are tied for second worst defense in the AL by allowing 18 runs more than an average team on balls in play. Though I don't get to see the Sox every day, it sounds like this understates the effect of the defense.
The Sox spent last winter getting guys who have high GB% and then they thought they were building an (at least) above-average defensive club, when it turns out they are (at least) below-average.
So maybe their biggest issue is lack of defense. Not sure how to fix that given Panda and Hanley are biggest culprits and they aren't really moveable, but it's an interesting case study.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 14, 2015 7:03:01 GMT -5
A lot of fingers have been pointed at Cherington, but it's mostly second guessing. This isn't: as soon as Hanigan got hurt, I said we should trade for Martin Maldonado or Carlos Corporan, and at the same time I pointed out the need to get another quality setup guy for the pen (even throwing out Papelbon's name). I remain perplexed that neither happened. (Yeah, I know that both catchers have been below replacement level this year, but that's not including pitch framing, and they're both excellent.) We've been on the same page. I have been posting the same thing. A questionable pitching staff can't have a rookie catcher who isn't ready. We were 12-10 at the time of Hanigan's injury. Granted, the pitching wasn't great until then either. Another error in judgement by BC. Obviously, you can win with Sandoval at 3b. The Giants have 3x. Hanley will probably be a big-time bat at DH when Papi retires. But, once they punted last year. Dealt Lester and Lackey. We were in no position to tie up that much money on pieces, not cornerstones. It's going to be a 2-3 year process. We need Mookie and Swihart/Vazquez to become good players. Signing a free agent like Cueto would help next year. But, tie up too much money when we should be really good; Benintendi, Moncada and Devers claiming spots. Might be other better options by then. And, hopefully cheaper. |
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Jun 14, 2015 7:23:48 GMT -5
Didn't see this posted elsewhere. Rob Arthur at fivethirtyeight wrote on Friday that Ortiz (and possibly certain other older hitters like Aramis Ramirez and Victor Martinez) may be adversely affected by the slightly decreased time between pitches this year. He doesn't say he can prove it but he compares his performance in 2014 on pitches thrown within 30 seconds and those where it took longer. There's a huge difference. fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-papi-needs-more-time-to-think/ |
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 14, 2015 8:18:10 GMT -5
Didn't see this posted elsewhere. Rob Arthur at fivethirtyeight wrote on Friday that Ortiz (and possibly certain other older hitters like Aramis Ramirez and Victor Martinez) may be adversely affected by the slightly decreased time between pitches this year. He doesn't say he can prove it but he compares his performance in 2014 on pitches thrown within 30 seconds and those where it took longer. There's a huge difference. fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-papi-needs-more-time-to-think/Hm... interesting but not completely convincing. There is a selection bias in that pitches tend to take longer with runners on base, I would have liked to see the analysis control for that factor. And I'm suspicious of the sample sizes involved... this could well be as statistically significant as one season's worth of RISP splits, i.e. not significant at all. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2015 10:49:09 GMT -5
I'm not sure anything can be done to fix this team as long as the current front office, which is very bad at talent evaluation, remains unchanged. m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/55318198/"For weeks, Cherington had spoken with the White Sox about Peavy. But the clubs didn't have a direct match. The Red Sox had no interest in including Middlebrooks in that swap." Don't you think this is a little unfair? What's unfair is that we're going to have to watch a pretty spectacular defensive player whom we developed perform for another club for another decade. And, in this case, there's no "we couldn't have won the World Series without that trade" retort. Apparently, we COULD have won the World Series without trading Iglesias. We just refused to part with Middlebrooks instead. The cherry on top of this fiasco is that the guy whom Middlebrooks tripped over in the World Series was none other than Allen Craig, whom we traded for less than a year later. Doh! |
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2015 10:54:37 GMT -5
Hindsight is 20/20. At the time, just about everyone valued Middlebrooks more than Iglesias.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jun 14, 2015 11:04:43 GMT -5
"just about everyone"
give us a break. Iglesias, a rare player
MDBK, a mouthy free swinger. People noticed it in AA, the MDBK attitude.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 14, 2015 11:51:04 GMT -5
Some of you may recall that there was quite a debate here over Iglesias when he was playing for the Sox in 2013 and hitting well above .300 (he was at .330 when he was traded and then hit .259 for Detroit). Iglesias' average was buoyed by the fact he kept getting cheap hits, dribblers, bunts, slow rollers, etc. A lot of people thought he really would not hit as well over time. His average at Detroit sort of supported that argument. There were a number who preferred Stephen Drew.
Of course, now he is hitting .335 with Detroit and could be on the All-Star team. Life's like that sometimes.
I wasn't happy about him being traded because I never liked Drew. However, the Sox won the World Series without him and I think Sox management made good moves that year. Not so much since then...
It is fun to think how the Sox might be different today if Iglesias was at SS and Bogaerts had been moved to 3B in the minors before it might have become a problem for him.
---
I am happy to see Shaw with the team. I hope it is not just a one game thing. I would like to see him get a tryout at 1B. He has been hitting over .350 the last couple of weeks.
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Post by jdb on Jun 14, 2015 11:52:28 GMT -5
To me some of you all are not only throwing in the towel for this year early but 2016 as well. We have young players that will improve and some vets that probably play close to the back of their baseball card eventually. If I'm dealing Buchholtz it's bc my socks got knocked off and I'd put that $13 million to a top tier FA starter to be offset by cheaper guys like E rod and Johnson.
I think Koji would have some value if we ate some money bc he's signed for next year and it could be seen more of a liability than anything.
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2015 12:12:11 GMT -5
I moved the Buchholz discussion to its own thread in the trade proposal subforum and started a consolidate trade deadline strategy thread there as well. As a reminder, let's keep trade-centered discussion to that forum. Thanks.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 14, 2015 12:16:47 GMT -5
To me some of you all are not only throwing in the towel for this year early but 2016 as well. We have young players that will improve and some vets that probably play close to the back of their baseball card eventually. If I'm dealing Buchholtz it's bc my socks got knocked off and I'd put that $13 million to a top tier FA starter to be offset by cheaper guys like E rod and Johnson. I think Koji would have some value if we ate some money bc he's signed for next year and it could be seen more of a liability than anything. It's this kind of thinking that is the problem. The Sox have very deep problems that can't be fixed in one off season. They need to accept that and adjust accordingly. |
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 14, 2015 12:26:18 GMT -5
I moved the Buchholz discussion to its own thread in the trade proposal subforum and started a consolidate trade deadline strategy thread there as well. As a reminder, let's keep trade-centered discussion to that forum. Thanks. I agree that specific trade proposals should not be here, but I don't see how we can write about what can be done to fix the Sox without some discussion of trading players, including specific players like Buchholz. |
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Jun 14, 2015 12:36:20 GMT -5
One point I'd like to make to a couple of posters who discussed the team "rushing" Bogaerts and Betts specifically is that I don't think they rushed them at all (same thing for a guy like Harper whom was mentioned as well). I've made this argument before, but unless you're talking about the elite of the elite (like Mike Trout or Giancarlo Stanton) young players are going to struggle once the league adjusts to them no matter how much time they spend in the minors.
Here is a list of the top pitchers last year in the International League by ERA (granted, not predictive, but it is how they did in a year when Bogaerts "should have been in the minors" according to some): Taylor Hill, Casey Sadler, Kris Johnson, Cody Martin, Alex Meyer, Chris Jones, Aaron Laffey, Duane Below, Matt Andriese, Tyler Cloyd, Dylan Axelrod, Kyle Lobstein, Kyle Davies, Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Montgomery, Sean O'Sullivan and Greg Smith. The only players that would have represented even a slight challenge to Bogaerts were Meyer, Lobstein and maybe Wang if you value his experience pitching in the majors.
These are top pitchers in the IL this year: Manny Banuelos, Chris Jones, Philippe Aumont, Pat Dean, Randy Wolf, Bryan Mitchell, Buck Famer, Casey Sadler, Scott Diamond, Toru Murata, Zach Davies, Chris Beck, Jon Moscot, Tyler Wilson.
Neither Bogaerts nor Betts would have learned a thing facing the overall majority of those guys.
I predicted that Betts would struggle after about 250PA just like Bogaerts did and you know what - he has. This isn't because I'm a genius, it's because the VAST majority of players struggle after MLB teams have adjusted to them. They wont get any better facing AAA players, they need to face players at their talent and development level. This is why I think both Bradley Jr and Brian Johnson should be up now - they aren't getting any better in AAA, and we have no further data in evaluating them. Sure, he's been PHENOMENAL in three starts, but you guys know what - eventually Eduardo Rodriguez is going to start getting his lunch stolen from him in the majors. That doesn't mean he should go back to Pawtucket when it happens, because he'd go back to dominating inferior talent.
Bradley Jr is hitting .335/.406/.497/.903 this year in Pawtucket. Is this because he's corrected problems, or because he's facing the guys I mentioned above, most of whom will never spend considerable time in the majors? We don't know (same can be said for Brian Johnson on the pitching side). Those guys have proven they are better than AAA, we now need to see if they're good enough to be in the majors, or are going to be the 2019 AAA versions of Chris Parmalee and Scott McGregor, respectively.
Sorry for the long post, but this is why I think we should find a way to move Napoli and and either Miley or Buchholz, respectively. Not because of a bad couple of months (Miley and Napoli) or inconsistency (Buchholz) but to evaulate if our prospects currently tearing up the minor leagues can be pieces of the major league solution or not. Getting them three and a half months of MLB games is a much better sample to start to judge from than a couple games in September - why not do this when the next three and a half months of a season don't really matter to the big league team - other than development and evaluation, because there is no chance this team is going anywhere this year.
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