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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by pokeefe363 on Jul 22, 2015 22:19:28 GMT -5
Sandoval was actually fairly predictable. A bad body 3B leaving his old team because they actually tried to keep his weight down whose value was entirely on his defense. I don't know where Sandoval got the reputation of being a really good hitter from when you look at 2013 and 2014. He was clearly a declining player. Just looking at 2012-2014 WAR, it was obvious we overpayed significantly for an average player.
Hanley was slightly different because power is hard to find in the game now and it's reasonable to think he could stay healthier by playing the outfield. In less than a full season with bad defense, he had WAR numbers over 3.5 in back to back years. If he played even average LF, the deal would make sense.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 22, 2015 22:20:25 GMT -5
“@timbritton: Kelly’s going to stay in the rotation, Farrell says.”
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 22, 2015 22:40:56 GMT -5
“@timbritton: Kelly’s going to stay in the rotation, Farrell says.” Lol Please for love of god fire this idiot.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 23, 2015 0:27:19 GMT -5
Yo Eric, JBJ turned 25 in April, but rant on. Does that change the point? if not why bother to correct it, other than of course to nitpick the example but miss the point. JBJ was promoted way to soon, again this was clear to me at the time, as he had precious few AA at bats but based on ST (no matter how often it's said, never to base any decision on ST alone, fools fall for ST #'s) he was promoted. That set him back, played with his confidence and clouded the mind of many people on his ability. He, much like Inglesias is an exceptional defensive player who does not need much offensive upside to be a very good asset to a team. Good/Exceptional defense rarely fluctuates as often as offense does so it's far easier to achieve being a better than average player. JBJ should have spent the entire 2013 season and likely the 2014 season in the Minors. It's likely, IMHO, with that extra time in the minors and without his confidence taking a big hit, that he'd have been here to stay last September. He's been on fire this year and this month in particular, 5 hr's and an OPS near 1.000. The Sox and JBJ are at a crossroads. He's either traded at the deadline or here for a long look come September. If he's here, I hope he is, he should be our RF, possibly CF, for next year and that will help next years team. Ideally Castillo takes over LF, Hanley take over DH with Ortiz moving on he has a team based option/s.
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Post by bookiemetts on Jul 23, 2015 0:37:28 GMT -5
I keep trying to write a good post of what I think the team should do moving forward past this season, and I end up just deleting it cause I just don't really know, but I can at the very least point out some problems for next year:
DH - Papi and Hanley are both DHs at this point. 1B - The potential free agent 1B are very poor so they may have to convert someone (god forbid, Hanley??). LF/RF - I really hope Castillo and Bradley can be the players they need here. The only FAs that fit the mold here are basically Heyward and Upton, which could be large $ disappointments honestly.
BP - Find quality guys in the FA market somehow?? Sign some guys up for the stem cell treatments in Germany like Kobe?? SP - Hopefully the young guys improve and they don't overpay an older "proven starter" or give 15 starts to people like Masterson.
Basically the only positions that will have no questions are 2B, SS, CF, C and 3B will be occupied by Panda who will hopefully be better. In my eyes the worst thing a team can do is take risks on players like Grady Sizemore, Allen Craig, Justin Masterson and keep playing them in hopes of improvement or "showcasing" for a potential trade. The more they play, the more negative value is accumulated and the smaller the trade value gets.
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Post by jmei on Jul 23, 2015 5:59:21 GMT -5
Sure, but both deals certainly had heir critics at the time (in the interests of full disclosure, I was against the Sandoval deal and for the Porcello trade and extension). At the most fundamental level, you want a front office that is a net better evaluator than the crowd or the Fangraphs projections. Of course, all I'm saying is no one could have possibly expected how atrocious those two would be this season. In fact I agree in that I never really loved the Sandoval deal, because even if he played at a predictable level it would have been barely worth it and not really made a ton of sense given the risk of him playing worse than predictably and the fact that he would block Hanley from playing the position he profiled best at. I'm just not sure it's an example of poor talent evaluation because correctly evaluating how good (bad) he would be this season would have been impossible. I'm not saying they should have predicted their seasons so far. I'm saying that good front offices are the ones that, on the margins, do a better job of predicting which players will succeed and which will not. This front office's track record on that front is not great.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 23, 2015 8:02:10 GMT -5
Buchholz is not realistically capable of more than 170 innings in a season. He was on pace for more than 200 innings. perhaps Sox should have found a way to limit his innings ... skip a couple starts.
He threw that complete game against HOU on July 4th. His next start was the one that he exited with the injury.
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Post by jmei on Jul 23, 2015 8:16:33 GMT -5
I contend if they had Hamels instead of Kelly and kept Lackey they'd be a playoff team and no need for Masterson as you'd have Buchholz Miley and Porcello and pick next guy up from AAA. Alternately, if they bought Scherzer as I and others avocated and kept Lackey, they'd also be a playoff team with the same alignment. The math does not check out. Hamels and Lackey have combined for 4.6 rWAR, Kelly and Masterson for -0.9. That wouldn't close the gap (they're 8.5 out of the second WC). Ever Scherzer only gets you an extra 2.8 wins, which gets you very close but not all the way there.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 23, 2015 8:17:28 GMT -5
Of course, all I'm saying is no one could have possibly expected how atrocious those two would be this season. In fact I agree in that I never really loved the Sandoval deal, because even if he played at a predictable level it would have been barely worth it and not really made a ton of sense given the risk of him playing worse than predictably and the fact that he would block Hanley from playing the position he profiled best at. I'm just not sure it's an example of poor talent evaluation because correctly evaluating how good (bad) he would be this season would have been impossible. I'm not saying they should have predicted their seasons so far. I'm saying that good front offices are the ones that, on the margins, do a better job of predicting which players will succeed and which will not. This front office's track record on that front is not great. They seem to do a good job of evaluating minor league and international talent, but a poor job on the major league level. It seems like evaluating talent already in the majors should be an easier task, perhaps they don't put in the same level of research but whatever the case I agree that it is disconcerting. I also find that they do an OK job at developing their young talent, but certainly leave something to be desired there as well.
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Post by theburn on Jul 23, 2015 8:22:27 GMT -5
BC sounding absolutely lost on WEEI this morning. Says he believes Farrell has the qualities necessary to be the manager in Boston for a long time.
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Post by theburn on Jul 23, 2015 8:30:51 GMT -5
He also took credit for recommending the Sandoval and Ramirez deals to ownership, FWIW.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 23, 2015 8:53:58 GMT -5
I contend if they had Hamels instead of Kelly and kept Lackey they'd be a playoff team and no need for Masterson as you'd have Buchholz Miley and Porcello and pick next guy up from AAA. Alternately, if they bought Scherzer as I and others avocated and kept Lackey, they'd also be a playoff team with the same alignment. The math does not check out. Hamels and Lackey have combined for 4.6 rWAR, Kelly and Masterson for -0.9. That wouldn't close the gap (they're 8.5 out of the second WC). Ever Scherzer only gets you an extra 2.8 wins, which gets you very close but not all the way there. Very close means you're still in the race.
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Post by notguilty on Jul 23, 2015 8:54:13 GMT -5
Yeah, BC didn't sound too assured. I put it on the account of "what else is he going to say?" About Farrell, if he even says something like "we'll evaluate at the end of the year", you know everybody will run with "Farrell is gone", they'll go to Farrell and you have another cycle of distraction that this team doesn't need. Same thing on Hanley, etc. At this stage, what they say is quite meaningless. We're going to have to watch what they do.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 23, 2015 8:56:21 GMT -5
BC sounding absolutely lost on WEEI this morning. Says he believes Farrell has the qualities necessary to be the manager in Boston for a long time. Really hoping Cherington is just saying the right thing there, I will be extremely disappointed if Farrell is managing the team again next season.
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Post by auger1 on Jul 23, 2015 10:05:00 GMT -5
I don't know if this is the right place to put this but I really wonder about the value our prospects have in the 10-20 range. I would really like to see what a Marrero/Coyle/Cecchini trio would fetch. They are all completely blocked and will likely never see consistent AB's for the Red Sox yet they all seem good enough to earn major league AB's for some team. Could this fetch a decent to good relief pitcher under team control for a couple seasons? Maybe a lesser version of Brock Holt so we can trade him for more value? At this point the only young guns that I would even consider trading (obvious caveats apply) are Owens and Margot and if they are on the table you expect a good young player under team control to come back.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 23, 2015 10:31:44 GMT -5
Using fangraphs calculations, Scherzer's WAR of 5.1 is .1 higher than the combined WAR of these: Buchholz, Miley, Porcello, Rodriguez, Masterson, Kelly and Weight. And Buchholz has a WAR of 3.1, leaving 1.9 to be shared by the rest, of which Miley has 1.3,
The WARs of elite pitchers who either will be FAs after this season or are likely to be traded, or both:
Greinke 3.7 Price 3.5 Cueto 2.7 Hamels 2.5 Zimmerman 2.5
A few other WARs of pitchers who might be available:
Sale 4.1 Archer 3.3 Gray 3.2 T. Ross 2.5 Samardzija 2.2 Kazmir 2.2 Leake 1.4 Shields 0.9 T. Walker 0.8 Haren 0.8 Garza 0.2
WARs of previous Sox pitchers
Lester 2.5 Lackey 2.0 Peavy 0.4 de la Rosa 0.2
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 23, 2015 10:37:08 GMT -5
A few other WARs of pitchers who might be available: Sale 4.1 Archer 3.3 Gray 3.2T. Ross 2.5 Samardzija 2.2 Kazmir 2.2 Leake 1.4 Shields 0.9 T. Walker 0.8 Haren 0.8 Garza 0.2 Pretty sure none of these guys are going to be available without a Godfather offer that we probably wouldn't be willing to make
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 23, 2015 10:40:06 GMT -5
I don't know if this is the right place to put this but I really wonder about the value our prospects have in the 10-20 range. I would really like to see what a Marrero/Coyle/Cecchini trio would fetch. They are all completely blocked and will likely never see consistent AB's for the Red Sox yet they all seem good enough to earn major league AB's for some team. Could this fetch a decent to good relief pitcher under team control for a couple seasons? Maybe a lesser version of Brock Holt so we can trade him for more value? At this point the only young guns that I would even consider trading (obvious caveats apply) are Owens and Margot and if they are on the table you expect a good young player under team control to come back. The best way to think about this is to turn it around. What would you trade to get each of these players? To take it further, look at their minor league stats and compare them to the stats of prospects on other teams. I think you will see that of those three, the only one with any value, and it isn't very high, is Marrero, and that is because of his fielding. He probably hasn't hit well enough to be a regular for most teams, but since there is a shortage of shortstops, he might be able to play for a team that has good hitters at other positions. Coyle is hurt all the time and only briefly has hit well, and not at the AAA level. Cecchini is hitting very poorly in AAA for the second year in a row and hasn't established a position for himself that he could play in the majors.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jul 23, 2015 10:41:18 GMT -5
I just finished the globe's most recent article on Cherington and his most recent comments, as well as Farrell''s.
Disappointing doesn't start to express how I see the current state of the nation. Disalluded? Maybe disemboweled....
1. Kelly to stay in the rotation. 2. Johnson sent down. 3. Farrell surprised by Johnson's lobs to first for pickoffs.
If the pick offs are an issue, why is this discovered in a major league game? Why has this not been fixed? Is there any teaching and development occurring other than what players execute on their own or naturally occurs through the passage of time? The two players who have developed and progressed (Betts, Bogaerts) certainly seem to have improved on their own and struggle making adjustments particularly quickly. The issue with Rodriguez and tipping off pitches also speaks to this. Shouldn't self scouting have caught and corrected this before game time?
This management team seems to make a choice, then sticks with it without regard to their lying eyes.
It is time to blow this up in a big way.
I really don't mind the management team staying in place as long as they are willing to make the moves necessary to make sure this underperformance never returns.
It seems to me that with current personnel we are strong up the middle and I do think Sandoval and Hanley in lf and third will improve.
To me, this is all about starting pitching and I would love to see the three top young lefties with every start in Boston possible this year. All the others have been disappointing.
Porcello ( I just misspelled as Porcelo and my iPad autocorrected to porcelain!) is overmatched but likely to be unmovable. Buckholz is off the table now with the shot (until Farrell said his time down would equal his time ramping up I thought then shot could bring him back sooner) Miley seems a value especially to a contending smaller market team looking to add a piece for a play off run and also replace a pending free agent. Kelly has shown nothing but how overmatched we are when dealing with the St. Louis front office. I do see potential value to others who may feel the Red Sox have actually hurt his development.
All the bullpen arms obviously would be available and could land a significant prospect or two.
I agree that Castillo and Bradley should split time in right. Any at bat by De Aza, Nava, Craig, Victorino, Napoli and even Hanagan are wasted opportunities.
Forget about the risk in promotions, move as many pieces not a part of the 2016 mlb plan as you can, and move up replacements from within. Margot should be in Pawtucket with a September look. Benintendi needs to move quickly as well. It would be interesting to include him and the Greenville infield to Salem and watch them hit as a group.
If their is management resistance to this 'don't trust any player over thirty' approach, rename him Pharrell and give him his freedom!
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 23, 2015 10:44:01 GMT -5
A few other WARs of pitchers who might be available: Sale 4.1 Archer 3.3 Gray 3.2T. Ross 2.5 Samardzija 2.2 Kazmir 2.2 Leake 1.4 Shields 0.9 T. Walker 0.8 Haren 0.8 Garza 0.2 Pretty sure none of these guys are going to be available without a Godfather offer that we probably wouldn't be willing to make Note the applicable word. I have read numerous stories that Sale might be available, but it obviously would take a huge deal. But he might be worth it. Tampa has a history of trading its good pitchers and they need to strengthen their team in many areas. Beane will trade anyone in what he considers the right deal. Yes, they would be very expensive, but they also have huge value.
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Post by auger1 on Jul 23, 2015 10:46:24 GMT -5
DanR,
I agee...if I was a Red Sox GM. But other teams have different needs and I just find it hard to believe that Cecchini or Marrero couldn't get consistent at bats for some major league teams with some of the players that get consistent AB's at SS and DH. SoxStats on Twitter recently tweeted that Ken Rosenthal was on the radio and said that the Braves and Red Sox seem to match up in a trade for Julio Teheran. What would be an appropriate package for him? Owens or Johnson and Marrero? Is that too much or too little? I really have no idea on Teheran's value. He is young and was very highly regarded but has been terrible this year (despite having good secondary stats)
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 23, 2015 10:48:07 GMT -5
I just finished the globe's most recent article on Cherington and his most recent comments, as well as Farrell''s. Disappointing doesn't start to express how I see the current state of the nation. Disalluded? Maybe disemboweled.... 1. Kelly to stay in the rotation. 2. Johnson sent down. 3. Farrell surprised by Johnson's lobs to first for pickoffs. If the pick offs are an issue, why is this discovered in a major league game? Why has this not been fixed? Is there any teaching and development occurring other than what players execute on their own or naturally occurs through the passage of time? The two players who have developed and progressed (Betts, Bogaerts) certainly seem to have improved on their own and struggle making adjustments particularly quickly. The issue with Rodriguez and tipping off pitches also speaks to this. Shouldn't self scouting have caught and corrected this before game time? This management team seems to make a choice, then sticks with it without regard to their lying eyes. It is time to blow this up in a big way. I really don't mind the management team staying in place as long as they are willing to make the moves necessary to make sure this underperformance never returns. It seems to me that with current personnel we are strong up the middle and I do think Sandoval and Hanley in lf and third will improve. To me, this is all about starting pitching and I would love to see the three top young lefties with every start in Boston possible this year. All the others have been disappointing. Porcello ( I just misspelled as Porcelo and my iPad autocorrected to porcelain!) is overmatched but likely to be unmovable. Buckholz is off the table now with the shot (until Farrell said his time down would equal his time ramping up I thought then shot could bring him back sooner) Miley seems a value especially to a contending smaller market team looking to add a piece for a play off run and also replace a pending free agent. Kelly has shown nothing but how overmatched we are when dealing with the St. Louis front office. I do see potential value to others who may feel the Red Sox have actually hurt his development. All the bullpen arms obviously would be available and could land a significant prospect or two. I agree that Castillo and Bradley should split time in right. Any at bat by De Aza, Nava, Craig, Victorino, Napoli and even Hanagan are wasted opportunities. Forget about the risk in promotions, move as many pieces not a part of the 2016 mlb plan as you can, and move up replacements from within. Margot should be in Pawtucket with a September look. Benintendi needs to move quickly as well. It would be interesting to include him and the Greenville infield to Salem and watch them hit as a group. If their is management resistance to this 'don't trust any player over thirty' approach, rename him Pharrell and give him his freedom! I read all that also and concluded that some new ideas, new eyes, new brains are desperately needed in Sox management. They are too set in a way of thinking and operating that is failing.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 23, 2015 10:49:23 GMT -5
DanR, I agee...if I was a Red Sox GM. But other teams have different needs and I just find it hard to believe that Cecchini or Marrero couldn't get consistent at bats for some major league teams with some of the players that get consistent AB's at SS and DH. SoxStats on Twitter recently tweeted that Ken Rosenthal was on the radio and said that the Braves and Red Sox seem to match up in a trade for Julio Teheran. What would be an appropriate package for him? Owens or Johnson and Marrero? Is that too much or too little? I really have no idea on Teheran's value. He is young and was very highly regarded but has been terrible this year (despite having good secondary stats) Do you really want another pitcher with problems?
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 23, 2015 11:36:46 GMT -5
I don't know if this is the right place to put this but I really wonder about the value our prospects have in the 10-20 range. I would really like to see what a Marrero/Coyle/Cecchini trio would fetch. They are all completely blocked and will likely never see consistent AB's for the Red Sox yet they all seem good enough to earn major league AB's for some team. Could this fetch a decent to good relief pitcher under team control for a couple seasons? Maybe a lesser version of Brock Holt so we can trade him for more value? At this point the only young guns that I would even consider trading (obvious caveats apply) are Owens and Margot and if they are on the table you expect a good young player under team control to come back. Coyle and Cecchini have virtually no trade value. Perhaps they could be a 3rd/4th piece in a large trade. Coyle has some local value to PHI. The time to have traded Coyle was last offseason when he was healthy and on the rise. Marrero could be potentially traded for a 6th/7th inning bullpen arm to the right team that needs a glove-first utility guy. If you are going to trade for value, your candidates (taking into account demand and likelihood of a trade) are: 1. Uehara 2. De Aza 3. Holt 4. Tazawa/Ogando/Breslow/Layne/Ross 5. Ortiz 6. Pedroia Trading jetsam and flotsam in the hopes you will improve the club is wishcasting at best and outright fantasy at worst. From the prospect pool, I'd be looking to use Margot, JBJ, Owens and/or Johnson as trade bait. If you really wanted to trade high on prospects, Guerra, Espinoza, Kopech and Devers would be your best bet, with Light also a possibility. I am not advocating this, nor do I expect it to happen. People want to trade a bunch of nickels for a quarter. Life (and baseball) doesn't work that way.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 23, 2015 11:42:45 GMT -5
DanR, I agee...if I was a Red Sox GM. But other teams have different needs and I just find it hard to believe that Cecchini or Marrero couldn't get consistent at bats for some major league teams with some of the players that get consistent AB's at SS and DH. SoxStats on Twitter recently tweeted that Ken Rosenthal was on the radio and said that the Braves and Red Sox seem to match up in a trade for Julio Teheran. What would be an appropriate package for him? Owens or Johnson and Marrero? Is that too much or too little? I really have no idea on Teheran's value. He is young and was very highly regarded but has been terrible this year (despite having good secondary stats) Cecchini doesn't have a position in the field and his bat is not good enough to overcome this. Right now, his bat is not good enough for the major leagues, period. Marrero is a glove-first utility guy. He's shown no indication that he has the ability to hit at the major league level. Perhaps he will, but teams are not going to give value on the assumption that he will hit. The Teheran rumor is being discussed in the trade discussion forum, where it belongs. It is likely that ATL will insist on Swihart for Teheran. However, I would not agree to this as Teheran's control issues this year are concerning and I wonder why ATL would put Teheran on the trade market (if, in fact, they are doing so, which is in dispute). I'm not sure we need another young gun who cannot control the strike zone. Owens or Johnson and Marrero would clearly not be enough.
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