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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 23, 2015 11:56:42 GMT -5
This revisionist history of if the Red Sox had Lackey plus Lester/Scherzer/Hamels is pointless to me. You could argue if the position players performed even closet to their projections the team would be in the race with these current mediocre pitchers. I get that a lot of posters here believe you NEED an ace to win, or that elite pitching is the only thing that wins in October, but this team was supposed to be elite offensively and instead they've been a bottom 5 group in the league. Focusing solely on the pitching is missing the point entirely, this team has been lost hitting and fielding as well. Signing one elite pitcher would've been an investment for short term production with long term risk, it would've been the wrong move given the current results of this team.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 23, 2015 12:07:25 GMT -5
I wouldn't touch Teheran if Atlanta is offering him. Almost surely that would mean that something is wrong with him. Atlanta is one the shrewdest trading teams there is, and one should be wary of them.
Also, the Sox aren't going to trade Swihart, if they trade him, until they know that Vazquez is OK.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 23, 2015 12:11:19 GMT -5
This revisionist history of if the Red Sox had Lackey plus Lester/Scherzer/Hamels is pointless to me. You could argue if the position players performed even closet to their projections the team would be in the race with these current mediocre pitchers. I get that a lot of posters here believe you NEED an ace to win, or that elite pitching is the only thing that wins in October, but this team was supposed to be elite offensively and instead they've been a bottom 5 group in the league. Focusing solely on the pitching is missing the point entirely, this team has been lost hitting and fielding as well. Signing one elite pitcher would've been an investment for short term production with long term risk, it would've been the wrong move given the current results of this team. Although I have been writing a lot about the pitching problem, that does not mean that the team does not have other problems. This entire team is a mess. Everything has gone wrong. I think there is a core of players who can help the team return to contention next year, but that there should be a fairly substantial makeover of both pitcher and position players.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,149
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Post by nomar on Jul 23, 2015 12:11:25 GMT -5
Teheran has an inflated HR/FB. His peripherals are good and his velocity hasn't changed. He's not an ace but he's a #2 long term IMO.
I would love Archer but in-division blockbuster trades almost never happen.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 23, 2015 12:27:24 GMT -5
I haven't seen him since last year at Portland and I haven't looked at a scouting report in a while, but given that he routinely is graded as something like a 70 field at shortstop, wouldn't he have a little more value than that, especially given that it's not inconceivable that he improves as a hitter?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,149
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Post by nomar on Jul 23, 2015 12:54:07 GMT -5
I would be pressing SD hard for Ross. Margot or JBJ wouldn't be enough, but both would fill a huge hole there.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 23, 2015 12:59:36 GMT -5
I would be pressing SD hard for Ross. Margot or JBJ wouldn't be enough, but both would fill a huge hole there. I don't think I'd give up Margot for him- high walk rate, somewhat fluky looking homerun numbers that almost definitely will spike if he moves from the NL West to the AL East, and 1.5 seasons of team control left. If we could work something out built around Bradley it's a different story though
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 23, 2015 13:05:53 GMT -5
This revisionist history of if the Red Sox had Lackey plus Lester/Scherzer/Hamels is pointless to me. You could argue if the position players performed even closet to their projections the team would be in the race with these current mediocre pitchers. I get that a lot of posters here believe you NEED an ace to win, or that elite pitching is the only thing that wins in October, but this team was supposed to be elite offensively and instead they've been a bottom 5 group in the league. Focusing solely on the pitching is missing the point entirely, this team has been lost hitting and fielding as well. Signing one elite pitcher would've been an investment for short term production with long term risk, it would've been the wrong move given the current results of this team. I don't think anybody is saying get an ace and presto the Sox are Champs. The Sox bullpen is bad, particularly beyond Koji and Tazawa. The offense is mediocre although it shouldn't be that difficult to fix. Upgrade at 1b (Byung-Ho Park?) and RF (Bradley and/or Castillo) would be the most sensible things to do and would go a long way towards fixing the offense. 3b and lf defense aren't that good, but not much can be done there unless Hanley is moved to 1b, which would probably create a defensive issue at 1b. Further growth from Bogaerts (particularly his power game) and Betts and perhaps Swihart would also go a long way to help the offense. But it cannot be denied that the Sox need front-line starting pitching. They need a legitimate ace to lead that staff, but they need more than that and they don't have the money to acquire other guys in free agency so they need Porcello to pitch better, Buchholz - assuming he's back in 2016, to be effective for his 130 innings or so and hope he's healthy by the end of the season if they have playoff aspirations, and they need further maturation from Rodriguez, which is realistic, and maybe somebody else like Johnson or Owens, but if they do nothing again, or don't get a really good pitcher to front that staff, their rotation will be mediocre to lousy again. And keep in mind when the Sox have been to the post-season they were usually led by an ace. Lonborg in 67. Tiant in 75. Clemens in 86, 88, 90, and 95. Pedro in 98, 99, and 03. Schilling in 04. Beckett in 07, Lester in 08, 09, and 13. Only in 2005 would I say the Sox made the post-season without anybody resembling an ace or at least a quasi-ace. There is a need for ace and for other improvements as well.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,149
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Post by nomar on Jul 23, 2015 13:18:41 GMT -5
I would be pressing SD hard for Ross. Margot or JBJ wouldn't be enough, but both would fill a huge hole there. I don't think I'd give up Margot for him- high walk rate, somewhat fluky looking homerun numbers that almost definitely will spike if he moves from the NL West to the AL East, and 1.5 seasons of team control left. If we could work something out built around Bradley it's a different story though I haven't see when he's a FA, but his walk rate is usually better, his K rate has jumped, he gets a ton of GB, and his HR rate would climb in this division but hasn't been a problem in the past. His park adjusted numbers look good, and his SIERA this year is still great. I would probably give up Margot for him. Edit: it would be for two years of Ross. Makes it a tougher call
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 23, 2015 14:13:34 GMT -5
I haven't seen him since last year at Portland and I haven't looked at a scouting report in a while, but given that he routinely is graded as something like a 70 field at shortstop, wouldn't he have a little more value than that, especially given that it's not inconceivable that he improves as a hitter? "It's not inconceivable" is not the same as "projected to become". Marrero has given no indication that he will be a league-average hitter. Plus defensive players who cannot hit at the major league level are utility players (or AAAA players). It's not inconceivable that Hanley Ramirez will become a competent left fielder. It's not inconceivable that Mike Napoli will again hit for average and power. It's not inconceivable that Deven Marrero improves as a hitter. It's not inconceivable that Clay Buchholz will be healthy for an entire season. It's not inconceivable that Joe Kelly will put it all together and be a top starter. It's not inconceivable that Jackie Bradley Jr will hit for average in the majors. It's not inconceivable that Justin Masterson will regain his velocity and control. All of the above are true sentences. I'd bet the under on the number of these projections which end up being true.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 23, 2015 14:21:11 GMT -5
I haven't seen him since last year at Portland and I haven't looked at a scouting report in a while, but given that he routinely is graded as something like a 70 field at shortstop, wouldn't he have a little more value than that, especially given that it's not inconceivable that he improves as a hitter? "It's not inconceivable" is not the same as "projected to become". Marrero has given no indication that he will be a league-average hitter. Plus defensive players who cannot hit at the major league level are utility players (or AAAA players). It's not inconceivable that Hanley Ramirez will become a competent left fielder. It's not inconceivable that Mike Napoli will again hit for average and power. It's not inconceivable that Deven Marrero improves as a hitter. It's not inconceivable that Clay Buchholz will be healthy for an entire season. It's not inconceivable that Joe Kelly will put it all together and be a top starter. It's not inconceivable that Jackie Bradley Jr will hit for average in the majors. It's not inconceivable that Justin Masterson will regain his velocity and control. All of the above are true sentences. I'd bet the under on the number of these projections which end up being true. Ok most of those don't belong in the same category as Marrero improving as a hitter. He's 25 and has had next to no big league experience; it's more than conceivable, it's likely that he improves as a hitter, even if it isn't to any great extent. And I have to point out (even though this is obviously an extreme example) that Andrelton Simmons has been below replacement level offensively (according to Fangraphs) for the past 2.5 seasons and has 8.4 fWAR over that time period, so I don't buy that a good defensive shortstop with a weak bat is a utility or AAAA player.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 23, 2015 14:29:26 GMT -5
I think Marrero could easily be Didi Gregorious, although he has no business starting for a 1st division team.
So far Marrero doesn't look like he's gone backwards like Cecchini. He has improved from last year.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 23, 2015 15:21:01 GMT -5
Marrero did very well defensively at 2B briefly for the Sox. There seems no doubt he would be one of the better defensive SSs in MLB if he got the chance. Right now is not the time his type of player gets moved, except if a team has a sudden injury or as an add-on to a deal. Most teams willing to deal right now are looking for sudden upgrades in pitching or hitting, or both.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 23, 2015 16:18:44 GMT -5
Ok most of those don't belong in the same category as Marrero improving as a hitter. He's 25 and has had next to no big league experience; it's more than conceivable, it's likely that he improves as a hitter, even if it isn't to any great extent. And I have to point out (even though this is obviously an extreme example) that Andrelton Simmons has been below replacement level offensively (according to Fangraphs) for the past 2.5 seasons and has 8.4 fWAR over that time period, so I don't buy that a good defensive shortstop with a weak bat is a utility or AAAA player. OK. As you correctly noted, we do not want to use Andrelton Simmons as the model for Deven Marrero. Alcides Escobar? Adeiny Hechavarria? Nick Ahmed? Didi Gregorius? The discussion began because auger1 asked about Marrero's current trade value, and I gave my opinion that Marrero could be potentially traded for a 6th/7th inning bullpen arm to the right team that needs a glove-first utility guy. You want me to concede that it's likely that Marrero improves as a hitter? Fine. Doesn't change his current trade value. Teams are not going to value Marrero on the possibility he'll improve as a hitter; they will value him as a sub-100 ranked prospect with an excellent glove whose bat is not ready for the majors, but maybe, possibly he'll improve into a league-average hitter for a SS. Of course, the team trading for him does not give value for the maybe, possibly. Didi Gregorius was essentially traded for Shane Greene last offseason. Greene is a fringe back-end starter. If someone really, really wanted Marrero at the deadline, could he get a fringe starter rather than a solid bullpen arm? Perhaps, but perhaps MFY overpaid for Gregorius in their attempt to move past the Jeter era.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 23, 2015 16:32:50 GMT -5
Still think we should trade Brock Holt.
Doubtful, he will ever have more value for us. But obviously it depends on what the potential return would be.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 23, 2015 16:52:20 GMT -5
Still think we should trade Brock Holt. Doubtful, he will ever have more value for us. But obviously it depends on what the potential return would be. There is a fuller discussion of Holt trade scenarios in the trade proposal subforum.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 23, 2015 18:51:47 GMT -5
Still think we should trade Brock Holt. Doubtful, he will ever have more value for us. But obviously it depends on what the potential return would be. WHAT??? IS NO ONE SACROSANCT??!......... I love the Brockstar. He is definitely a good player who was underestimated by MLB.....good for us....BUT NO ONE IS SAFE!!...nor should they be. WE NEED 1. A better bullpen (it's not coming from our minor leagues) and should not focus on purchase of flotsam. (Hell we spent 72 million of Castillo, he is 28 and has shown few signs that he can meet needs outlined in 3. below so we could afford to "go yard" with some proven relievers) 2. At least two top flight starters (likely not coming from our minors either....Johnson great curve but needs impeccable control, Owens great change but needs impeccable control/command...others so far away as not to count currently) 3. A lineup that has higher and consistent OBP AND more power and4. Better overall defense All this is a couple of years, at least, away...so enjoy watching our new guys arrive and mature. Embrace that....just like old times with the Sox in the 50's and 60's. I'm accepting and it sure lightens the frustration load. Draft well and exploit the international market when possible. Oh yeah....Yankees SUCK!
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,830
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jul 24, 2015 7:03:50 GMT -5
Well we have to start somewhere. As you can see in this photo, Ben Cherington has started his "clean-up" a little further up (in the stands). Certainly uncluttered seating and trash pick-up is high on my list. Hopefully after he finishes up this task, Ben will get down to making this the LAST team in the next 10 years to finish LAST in the standings. I'd rather have Cherington sign Mr. Clean to bat clean-up than do this kind of work. Anyone have the local number for Molly Maid? ![](http://i128.photobucket.com/albums/p182/mon954/ben%20trash_zpskkyaap8z.jpg)
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Post by dcsoxfan on Jul 24, 2015 8:30:30 GMT -5
The Red Sox have assembled the best collection of under-23 talent in baseball. Unfortunately, very few players under the age of 23 are ready to perform at a Major League level. Fortunately all of that under 23 talent is working just as fast as it can to become under 24 and under 25 talent.
I think the Red Sox and their fans might just have to be patient -- just like the fans of 27 or 28 other teams frequently do.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 24, 2015 8:41:04 GMT -5
The Red Sox have assembled the best collection of under-23 talent in baseball. Unfortunately, very few players under the age of 23 are ready to perform at a Major League level. Fortunately all of that under 23 talent is working just as fast as it can to become under 24 and under 25 talent. I think the Red Sox and their fans might just have to be patient -- just like the fans of 27 or 28 other teams frequently do. Not impugning you specifically here, dcsoxfan, but, 1) I've been hearing this refrain one way or another since 2010 save one year. 2) Fans of those 27-28 other teams don't have owners who are willing to spend $189M+ every year. If you have an outstanding advantage over your competition you need to maximize it. It's not just player development. It's trades and smart purchases of free agents. A lot of other teams can't indulge in the latter to the degree the Sox can, or their owners are just too cheap.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 24, 2015 8:42:07 GMT -5
Under 23 talent certainly can play in the majors. This is a young players game again so you will see more earlier twenties players playing and playing well. Gone are the days of guys using drugs to play great through their thirties. This means you need to get more out of them in their twenties. It also means there is more opportunity for them to do so because the veterans aren't having as long of a career.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 24, 2015 8:50:50 GMT -5
Ben needs to ship out veterans and make Farrel play the kids and see how it goes. Napoli - Victorino - breslow - Koji should all be gone. Koji should have real trade value the rest can just get cut for all I care.
Rotation should be Porcello - Milley - Rodriguez - Johnson - Owens. When the kids reach innings limits then Kelley and Wright and whoever can fill in. Barnes should be in the MLB bullpen pitching 7th inning or later.
I would also assess Hanley and possibly dump him if possible to free his salary and rid this team of his attitude. Part of the assessment would be of his attitude. I'm not sure if it's really an issue or not but I don't want lazy veterans who aren't about winning around the young players in trying to develop.
Let Bradley play the rest of the season full time to either establish some value or bury himself. He's not a guy I'd bet against.
The coaching staff needs to go after this season. They are a disgrace and is bring in a staff who stresses the fundamentals and demands accountability.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 24, 2015 9:09:51 GMT -5
Not impugning you specifically here, dcsoxfan, but, 1) I've been hearing this refrain one way or another since 2010 save one year. That one year is a pretty big deal.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 24, 2015 9:40:45 GMT -5
Rotation should be Porcello - Milley - Rodriguez - Johnson - Owens. When the kids reach innings limits then Kelley and Wright and whoever can fill in. Barnes should be in the MLB bullpen pitching 7th inning or later. Four lefties in the rotation? Has that ever been tried before? I am convinced when Barnes is pitching for boston, he is over throwing and it causes his fastball to flatten out like a pancake. If the pitching coach can get him to pitch down in the zone and get anything resembling late movement, he could be a great reliever.
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Post by rafael on Jul 24, 2015 10:18:32 GMT -5
If the Red Sox are going to the FA market to add SPs then they should try to sign the younger guys: Latos, Leake and Brett Anderson. They will probably sign for less than 50 million and we get their prime years. Next year's rotation should be at least as good as it has been this year, perhaps even better, so no major addition is needed.
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