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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2015 1:53:55 GMT -5
Yes. It's worth pointing out that they had him throwing way too many 4-seamers; after he returned, he went back to his old pitch mix, and, of all the wacky things, also returned to being as good as he used to be. They have three guys who are very credible candidates to start a game 2: a healthy Buchholz (OK, credible at the talent level), Porcello, and an Eduardo Rodriguez who is throwing his sinker and cutter in addition to the three pitches that made him an elite prospect, and exciting but inconsistent rookie. He has a sinker and a cutter? forum.soxprospects.com/post/180566I'm not sure why I didn't include these numbers in my original post: 15 GS as a 3-pitch pitcher: 106 ERA-, 108 FIP-, 100 xFIP-, 4.18 SIERA 6 GS as a 4-pitch pitcher: 54 ERA-, 78 FIP-, 100 xFIP-, 4.04 SIERA
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 11, 2015 9:00:06 GMT -5
Who pitched like a #1 or a #2 for the Royals last year? There's a fine line between trying to put together a team capable of winning the World Series and trying to build a super team with a destroyed future. We're probably 99% certain to not trade for a #2 and I'd actually doubt they sign anyone else. I think you're right in that we probably will not trade for a #2 nor sign one, but it does not change my thinking with regards to out current group of pitchers. You are right that we may not need a #2 like KC didn't have, but the title is... "what can be done to fix the sox" and, in my humble opinion, I think we need a #2 pitcher. Just as much as having good years if not more so, I can see our #2 through #5 guys having bad years. I can easily see Porcello with another career average year of 4.39 era. I can see Kelly having about the same. Buchholz may pitch 28... or 14 games... half at 2.00 era and the other half at 4.39 too. ERod in a bit of a rut with hitters studying him more.
Couldn't we say this about most teams in the ML...Look at the NYY rotation, they look VERY fragile. I'm leaning on the 2nd half last year when most of our SP improved drastically with the catching situation & defense solidified.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 11, 2015 9:19:07 GMT -5
I think we can all agree that we'd like to have w starter better and more reliable than Porcello to fit in the 2 spot. A guy you can argue that fits that bill just got traded for a boat load of talent that we would only be comfortable trading for a guy who's profile is that of a co-ace. DD knows this, he's known this since before he made the Kimbrel trade. This is why they will not be getting that guy right now. This is why they signed Price (partially) and why they made the bullpen moves they made.
Trade for a number 2 or better starter will not be taking place until July, if at all.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 11, 2015 9:21:25 GMT -5
We should go back to Cincy and tell them we will take their gun slinging sister pusher for Marrero and Ball then make Chapman try starting. ??
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 11, 2015 9:36:38 GMT -5
I think we can all agree that we'd like to have w starter better and more reliable than Porcello to fit in the 2 spot. A guy you can argue that fits that bill just got traded for a boat load of talent I honestly have no idea whom you're talking about. Surely not Shelby Miller, who's projected (by Steamer, in the NL) for a 4.09 ERA (compared to Porcello's 3.79 projection in the AL).
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 11, 2015 10:01:04 GMT -5
I think we can all agree that we'd like to have w starter better and more reliable than Porcello to fit in the 2 spot. A guy you can argue that fits that bill just got traded for a boat load of talent I honestly have no idea whom you're talking about. Surely not Shelby Miller, who's projected (by Steamer, in the NL) for a 4.09 ERA (compared to Porcello's 3.79 projection in the AL). Then why would the D-backs give up a kings ransom to get a NL 4+ ERA?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2015 10:03:56 GMT -5
I honestly have no idea whom you're talking about. Surely not Shelby Miller, who's projected (by Steamer, in the NL) for a 4.09 ERA (compared to Porcello's 3.79 projection in the AL). Then why would the D-backs give up a kings ransom to get a NL 4+ ERA? Because they're stupid? Nicer answer - because they think he still has upside. Let's put it this way, he's going to give up a lot more home runs in Arizona than he did in Atlanta. They better hope his ground ball % spike last year is a trend and not just a statistical blip. My personal opinion is that this is one of the worst trades I've ever seen.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 11, 2015 10:12:01 GMT -5
I think we can all agree that we'd like to have w starter better and more reliable than Porcello to fit in the 2 spot. A guy you can argue that fits that bill just got traded for a boat load of talent I honestly have no idea whom you're talking about. Surely not Shelby Miller, who's projected (by Steamer, in the NL) for a 4.09 ERA (compared to Porcello's 3.79 projection in the AL). I didn't say I agreed, just said you can argue. I do think it's clear there are baseball people who think he fits that, including the Sox front office if reports are true they were interested in him.
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Post by kman22 on Dec 11, 2015 10:14:33 GMT -5
I honestly have no idea whom you're talking about. Surely not Shelby Miller, who's projected (by Steamer, in the NL) for a 4.09 ERA (compared to Porcello's 3.79 projection in the AL). I didn't say I agreed, just said you can argue. I do think it's clear there are baseball people who think he fits that, including the Sox front office if reports are true they were interested in him. I don't think their interest indicates anything about how they feel he compares to Porcello. But the contract they gave to Porcello indicates a lot about how they feel about him.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 11, 2015 10:18:34 GMT -5
Miller is still only 25 and he's quite good. His career ERA is 0.60 lower than his FIP over 575 innings, which is the point where there's a real chance it means something. Part of that may be Cardinals voodoo but he outpitched his FIP by 0.43 with the Braves too. The HR/FB he had in 2015 is almost certainly not sustainable, particularly moving from Turner to BOB or whatever they're calling that Phoenix stadium this month, which probably puts him closer to a 3.50 ERA guy to a 3.00 one, but his durability and solid performance make him a solid #3 and a good bet to be a #2.
That's still not worth anywhere near the package the Braves got for him, of course. I'm defending Miller the pitcher here, not the trade, which was totally insane.
I too would take Porcello over Miller, though I'm a bit worried that Porcello's problems with men on base are significant enough from getting to his full potential. The Red Sox handling of Porcello last season was a little bit mind-boggling. They acquired a young pitcher (at a fairly high cost) for whom every indicator was moving in the right direction and then fundamentally changed the way he pitched.
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2015 10:26:13 GMT -5
Side note: if Porcello were a free agent this offseason, what kind of a contract would he get? You'd think he'd be comped to Samardzija (5/$90m), Chen, and Leake. In that light, 4/$82.5m isn't much of an overpay.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2015 10:43:12 GMT -5
Side note: if Porcello were a free agent this offseason, what kind of a contract would he get? You'd think he'd be comped to Samardzija (5/$90m), Chen, and Leake. In that light, 4/$82.5m isn't much of an overpay. I think he'd do even better considering Samarzija and Chen are 30, not 27. Leake is 28 but not as good. The best part about the 4/82 for Porcello is that it should not include any decline. Pretty much every other multi-year pitcher contract does (and that's why Porcello's AAV is higher).
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 11, 2015 10:45:09 GMT -5
I didn't say I agreed, just said you can argue. I do think it's clear there are baseball people who think he fits that, including the Sox front office if reports are true they were interested in him. I don't think their interest indicates anything about how they feel he compares to Porcello. But the contract they gave to Porcello indicates a lot about how they feel about him. I don't know only because I don't know how they feel about Porcello, but I think their interest shows they think he's a clear 2/3 leaning toward the two with the upside of a 1a. They are not going to show interesting in a 3/4 or lower.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 11, 2015 10:48:02 GMT -5
Side note: if Porcello were a free agent this offseason, what kind of a contract would he get? You'd think he'd be comped to Samardzija (5/$90m), Chen, and Leake. In that light, 4/$82.5m isn't much of an overpay. I think he might get more, honestly. Given his 2014, his strong finish to 2015, his age, his peripherals, etc... I think you'd have had a team or two willing to go somewhere like 5/$120M.
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2015 10:55:43 GMT -5
Side note: if Porcello were a free agent this offseason, what kind of a contract would he get? You'd think he'd be comped to Samardzija (5/$90m), Chen, and Leake. In that light, 4/$82.5m isn't much of an overpay. I think he'd do even better considering Samarzija and Chen are 30, not 27. Leake is 28 but not as good. The best part about the 4/82 for Porcello is that it should not include any decline. Pretty much every other multi-year pitcher contract does (and that's why Porcello's AAV is higher). Porcello has had better peripherals than Leake, but Leake has better runs allowed numbers, and maybe this is a time when you want to look at runs rather than peripherals since Porcello probably has a true-talent issue with pitching with men on base and Leake probably has a true-talent ability to get lower than average BABIPs. Last three years, fWAR: Porcello 7.3, Leake 6.0 Last three years, bWAR: Porcello 7.0, Leake 7.4 I think Leake with an extra year is probably a fair comp, and Leake is in that Samardzija range in terms of AAV. I agree that for a four year contract with no decline years, he'd get a higher AAV and his current contract might not be an overpay at all. No chance in my mind that he would get 5/$120m though.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 11, 2015 11:16:03 GMT -5
Miller is still only 25 and he's quite good. His career ERA is 0.60 lower than his FIP over 575 innings, which is the point where there's a real chance it means something. Part of that may be Cardinals voodoo but he outpitched his FIP by 0.43 with the Braves too. The HR/FB he had in 2015 is almost certainly not sustainable, particularly moving from Turner to BOB or whatever they're calling that Phoenix stadium this month, which probably puts him closer to a 3.50 ERA guy to a 3.00 one, but his durability and solid performance make him a solid #3 and a good bet to be a #2. Yes, his ERA has been better than his FIP, but that's a product of two uncorrelated things both going in his favor - BABIP luck and HR/FB luck. On their own, well, his BABIP is easily within a standard deviation or two AND was always higher throughout his minor league career, and I am extremely skeptical that his HR/FB can be anything more than park effects given his completely neutral GB/FB ratio. The ERA-FIP discrepancy just tells you you should have a closer look. When you actually do have a closer look, everything screams regression to the mean.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 11, 2015 11:22:29 GMT -5
Side note: if Porcello were a free agent this offseason, what kind of a contract would he get? You'd think he'd be comped to Samardzija (5/$90m), Chen, and Leake. In that light, 4/$82.5m isn't much of an overpay. I think he might get more, honestly. Given his 2014, his strong finish to 2015, his age, his peripherals, etc... I think you'd have had a team or two willing to go somewhere like 5/$120M. I don't think Porcello would have received more than Zimmermann.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 11, 2015 11:29:41 GMT -5
I think he'd do even better considering Samarzija and Chen are 30, not 27. Leake is 28 but not as good. The best part about the 4/82 for Porcello is that it should not include any decline. Pretty much every other multi-year pitcher contract does (and that's why Porcello's AAV is higher). Porcello has had better peripherals than Leake, but Leake has better runs allowed numbers, and maybe this is a time when you want to look at runs rather than peripherals since Porcello probably has a true-talent issue with pitching with men on base and Leake probably has a true-talent ability to get lower than average BABIPs.
Last three years, fWAR: Porcello 7.3, Leake 6.0 Last three years, bWAR: Porcello 7.0, Leake 7.4 I think Leake with an extra year is probably a fair comp, and Leake is in that Samardzija range in terms of AAV. I agree that for a four year contract with no decline years, he'd get a higher AAV and his current contract might not be an overpay at all. No chance in my mind that he would get 5/$120m though. Not that we'd do it, but wouldn't he be tradeable, or is it just a wash in value/contract worth. I don't know the breakdown from 1st half to 2nd half, but in the 1st half he was probably trying to be too fine with his pitches (with men on base) instead of challenging them due to our defensive struggles early on.
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Post by thursty on Dec 11, 2015 11:30:04 GMT -5
Is there any evidence that BABIP and HR/FB are uncorrelated? It seems to me that they're both (potentially) indications of a weak contact skill
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 11, 2015 11:31:29 GMT -5
Miller is still only 25 and he's quite good. His career ERA is 0.60 lower than his FIP over 575 innings, which is the point where there's a real chance it means something. Part of that may be Cardinals voodoo but he outpitched his FIP by 0.43 with the Braves too. The HR/FB he had in 2015 is almost certainly not sustainable, particularly moving from Turner to BOB or whatever they're calling that Phoenix stadium this month, which probably puts him closer to a 3.50 ERA guy to a 3.00 one, but his durability and solid performance make him a solid #3 and a good bet to be a #2. Yes, his ERA has been better than his FIP, but that's a product of two uncorrelated things both going in his favor - BABIP luck and HR/FB luck. On their own, well, his BABIP is easily within a standard deviation or two AND was always higher throughout his minor league career, and I am extremely skeptical that his HR/FB can be anything more than park effects given his completely neutral GB/FB ratio. The ERA-FIP discrepancy just tells you you should have a closer look. When you actually do have a closer look, everything screams regression to the mean. The homer suppression should have some sticking power to it. In the past couple years he's basically abandoned his changeup and roughly halved his use of the four-seam in favor of more two-seamers and cutters. The four-seam and the change both give up more fly balls and more homers per fly than the pitches he's replaced them with.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 11, 2015 11:34:47 GMT -5
Cuato at 1 year 25-26 mil?? He can then enter free agency next year in a much weaker pitcher class. He will only be 30 next year and younger than both Price and Grienke were this year. He can still get a 5/6 year deal. If he pitches well, he will be the best FA pitcher... probably. For the Sox, we get a true #2 for this year. We can further evaluate Porcello and more so Kelly to see if they can replace Cuato as the #2 8n 2017. The Sox will not be on the hook past 2016.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 11, 2015 11:38:01 GMT -5
Cuato at 1 year 25-26 mil?? He can then enter free agency next year in a much weaker pitcher class. He will only be 30 next year and younger than both Price and Grienke were this year. He can still get a 5/6 year deal. If he pitches well, he will be the best FA pitcher... probably. For the Sox, we get a true #2 for this year. We can further evaluate Porcello and more so Kelly to see if they can replace Cuato as the #2 8n 2017. The Sox will not be on the hook past 2016. History shows that with rare exceptions, players want nothing to do with these kinds of deals. If they did, teams would give them out all the time.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2015 11:51:35 GMT -5
Cuato at 1 year 25-26 mil?? He can then enter free agency next year in a much weaker pitcher class. He will only be 30 next year and younger than both Price and Grienke were this year. He can still get a 5/6 year deal. If he pitches well, he will be the best FA pitcher... probably. For the Sox, we get a true #2 for this year. We can further evaluate Porcello and more so Kelly to see if they can replace Cuato as the #2 8n 2017. The Sox will not be on the hook past 2016. And if he tears his UCL, he'd be leaving $100 million on the table. I know there is insurance, but it's really expensive and doesn't pay all of that, plus you have to fight like hell to get it paid. There's just no way he'd want a 1 year deal.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 11, 2015 11:59:28 GMT -5
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 11, 2015 11:59:58 GMT -5
Cuato at 1 year 25-26 mil?? He can then enter free agency next year in a much weaker pitcher class. He will only be 30 next year and younger than both Price and Grienke were this year. He can still get a 5/6 year deal. If he pitches well, he will be the best FA pitcher... probably. For the Sox, we get a true #2 for this year. We can further evaluate Porcello and more so Kelly to see if they can replace Cuato as the #2 8n 2017. The Sox will not be on the hook past 2016. And if he tears his UCL, he'd be leaving $100 million on the table. I know there is insurance, but it's really expensive and doesn't pay all of that, plus you have to fight like hell to get it paid. There's just no way he'd want a 1 year deal. I don't thinkhe will do it, but... what if he is not getting the type of deal he wants this year? Next year he will not have the SP competition as there is this year. What about 1 year 32 mil?? I get it is a long shot... at best.
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