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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 9, 2015 20:04:34 GMT -5
There are still three things they could do that wouldn't be crazy. 1) Trade Tazawa's one year of control, plus necessary prospect(s), for Jake McGee's two years. 2) Trade Kelly plus NPs for a SP who is reliable and clearly better than him or Wright, which is to say a #2 or borderline #2/#3. 3) Trade Rusney Castillo and acquire a LF 1- or 2-year rental like Josh Reddick. I don't see a downside of any sort to #1. You do it if you like the price. With #2, you run the risk of Kelly being nearly as good as the guy you get. That means you explore making a deal, but only make it of it clearly seems like a win because the prospect price is surprisingly low. Given what the Snakes just gave up to get Shelby Miller, that seems very unlikely. There was a pretty good consensus that #3 should wait until perhaps June of next year, since it might prove to be unnecessary. However, they should make a list of candidates (Carlos Gonzalez is another and I'm not sure whether there are any more) and, if all but one get traded and the last guy is on the block, they should explore making the deal now. 1.) Unsure why Tazawa would be in that trade. Rays would rather get more prospects. 2.) This one I get, though they seem in love with Joe Kelly's potential working with the 3 pitch mix he switched to after the All Star break. 3.) No chance in hell Beane would ever do that. No one trades 2 years of a above average OF-er for 5 years of a below average one on a bigger contract.
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Post by slam761 on Dec 9, 2015 21:32:29 GMT -5
The Rockies are apparently willing to trade any of their LH outfielders. I'd love to move Castillo and get Corey Dickerson for LF. The Rockies are always looking for pitching, so maybe we could offer something starting with Kelly or Owens? Blackmon wouldn't be bad either, but I'd definitely prefer Dickerson. They both have big platoon splits, but that just makes more opportunity for Young.
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Post by larrycook on Dec 9, 2015 23:17:14 GMT -5
Hard to overstate how effective Smith was, how many batters he froze at the plate. Playing out here in Seattle his name wasn't widely known. That will probably all change now that he's in Boston. Of course he has to stay healthy. But if he does, and if he's anywhere near as good as he was last year, people are in for a treat. I see this as a trade that benefits both teams. Didn't he completely run out of gas and actually lose the closer role in the second half of the season? We already have holt as the team's designated second half fade to black player.
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Post by ethanbein on Dec 9, 2015 23:33:56 GMT -5
Hard to overstate how effective Smith was, how many batters he froze at the plate. Playing out here in Seattle his name wasn't widely known. That will probably all change now that he's in Boston. Of course he has to stay healthy. But if he does, and if he's anywhere near as good as he was last year, people are in for a treat. I see this as a trade that benefits both teams. Didn't he completely run out of gas and actually lose the closer role in the second half of the season? We already have holt as the team's designated second half fade to black player. Carson Smith, September/October: 12.2 IP, 50 BF, 20 K, 3 BB, 0 R
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 9, 2015 23:46:41 GMT -5
Hard to overstate how effective Smith was, how many batters he froze at the plate. Playing out here in Seattle his name wasn't widely known. That will probably all change now that he's in Boston. Of course he has to stay healthy. But if he does, and if he's anywhere near as good as he was last year, people are in for a treat. I see this as a trade that benefits both teams. Didn't he completely run out of gas and actually lose the closer role in the second half of the season? We already have holt as the team's designated second half fade to black player. Not sure where you got your information, or heard that talk, but you'll want to be a little careful with that source going forward. As you can see from the post above, the answer is a loud no. I don't see any saves when I look at his line in BR, just 6 holds for that period. But hey, that's what the Sox brought him in for, right? A few more numbers: those 50 batters he faced had a line of .182/.265/.205. In short, he was lights out.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 10, 2015 9:08:52 GMT -5
I really think we need a #2 pitcher. A reliable #2. Porcello is fine,but not at #2 pitcher. He showed in the 2nd half he was better than a 5 era type guy, but looking at his career numbers nothing implies he will be a solid #2. I can see him having another horrible half year just as much as him having a solid full year. Kelly is no where near a sure thing. Same,as Porcello, except less of a track record. Kelly has talent, but we cannot count on him to be anything more than a #4/5 type guy. Rodriguez, for as good as he pitched as a rookie, had some ups and downs. To expect him to be our #2 is unfair. We can hope, but no way we can count on it. Buchholz has a lot of talent.... and mental break downs.... and injuries.... and.... we cannot count on him at all. Wright, Owens, Johnson and Elias are definitely not #2's.
The Sox spent a lot improving for this year and the immediate future. If we don't have a #2 it may really limit our chances of winning it all, in my opinion.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2015 9:25:25 GMT -5
I really think we need a #2 pitcher. A reliable #2. Porcello is fine,but not at #2 pitcher. He showed in the 2nd half he was better than a 5 era type guy, but looking at his career numbers nothing implies he will be a solid #2. I can see him having another horrible half year just as much as him having a solid full year. Kelly is no where near a sure thing. Same,as Porcello, except less of a track record. Kelly has talent, but we cannot count on him to be anything more than a #4/5 type guy. Rodriguez, for as good as he pitched as a rookie, had some ups and downs. To expect him to be our #2 is unfair. We can hope, but no way we can count on it. Buchholz has a lot of talent.... and mental break downs.... and injuries.... and.... we cannot count on him at all. Wright, Owens, Johnson and Elias are definitely not #2's. The Sox spent a lot improving for this year and the immediate future. If we don't have a #2 it may really limit our chances of winning it all, in my opinion. You'll be disappointed.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 10, 2015 9:31:12 GMT -5
I really think we need a #2 pitcher. A reliable #2. Porcello is fine,but not at #2 pitcher. He showed in the 2nd half he was better than a 5 era type guy, but looking at his career numbers nothing implies he will be a solid #2. I can see him having another horrible half year just as much as him having a solid full year. Kelly is no where near a sure thing. Same,as Porcello, except less of a track record. Kelly has talent, but we cannot count on him to be anything more than a #4/5 type guy. Rodriguez, for as good as he pitched as a rookie, had some ups and downs. To expect him to be our #2 is unfair. We can hope, but no way we can count on it. Buchholz has a lot of talent.... and mental break downs.... and injuries.... and.... we cannot count on him at all. Wright, Owens, Johnson and Elias are definitely not #2's. The Sox spent a lot improving for this year and the immediate future. If we don't have a #2 it may really limit our chances of winning it all, in my opinion. I partially agree with you. Some of these guys have the ability to be a 2 if they put it together. I don't think it's a stretch to think one of them pushes into that role. To get a DEFINATE 2 (Shelby/Carrasco/Salazar) type, it would cost us way too much in prospects. I would bet that DD attempted to obtain one as soon as the season ended, then had to go to plan B.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 10, 2015 11:06:53 GMT -5
The market for Cleveland's young starters wasn't in prospects, it was in the MLB roster position players.
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Post by texs31 on Dec 10, 2015 11:11:33 GMT -5
Nothing implies he'll be a solid #2? I have my doubts, sure, but in 2014 he put the same bWAR as Madison Bumgarner so he's done it for a full season. Again, I'm not suggesting any comfort level with him yet but . . .
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Dec 10, 2015 11:41:05 GMT -5
Decent chance Buchholz pitches like a 2 for a couple of months. There have been quite a few in-season trades for good pitchers the last couple of years; Lester, Price(2x), Lackey, Samardzija, Cueto,Hamels.
We could end up needing a corner inf more than a #2 starter. Patience.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 10, 2015 12:17:04 GMT -5
I really think we need a #2 pitcher. A reliable #2. Porcello is fine,but not at #2 pitcher. He showed in the 2nd half he was better than a 5 era type guy, but looking at his career numbers nothing implies he will be a solid #2. I can see him having another horrible half year just as much as him having a solid full year. Kelly is no where near a sure thing. Same,as Porcello, except less of a track record. Kelly has talent, but we cannot count on him to be anything more than a #4/5 type guy. Rodriguez, for as good as he pitched as a rookie, had some ups and downs. To expect him to be our #2 is unfair. We can hope, but no way we can count on it. Buchholz has a lot of talent.... and mental break downs.... and injuries.... and.... we cannot count on him at all. Wright, Owens, Johnson and Elias are definitely not #2's. The Sox spent a lot improving for this year and the immediate future. If we don't have a #2 it may really limit our chances of winning it all, in my opinion. Porcello is very much a 2 guy. He's produced as such and projects as such. Forget how he started last season, and instead look at who he was after he returned. I'd like a #2 also, but not if it requires gutting the team, or the future; and that's what it requires
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Dec 10, 2015 13:00:56 GMT -5
Ideally we make the playoffs and even if Buchholz again fails to give us 180+ innings, he is healthy for the postseason. Because Buchholz is a great #2 if you have him at his best form.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 10, 2015 13:13:25 GMT -5
I'd love to have a Salazar/Carrasco type to slot in between Price and Porcello, but I am comfortable with Porcello starting say game 2 of a series. He's become very underrated IMO because of his contract and his iffy year last year. But he had a stretch of great ball last season, his HR rate was nowhere near his career line which would indicate a likely return to the mean, and the defense behind him is better, potentially significantly, and his "stuff" relies on defense more than some pitchers.
If his contract was $15M/year, which would simply be in line with the qualifying offer value, I don't think people would be nearly as pissed at him. In particular now that they are significantly over the luxury tax, it makes pretty much zero difference that he's a "$20M/year pitcher" as opposed to a $15M/year middle of the rotation guy.
I'll finish by saying that I fully believe he will be far superior this year to last and still think the trade/sign was good
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 10, 2015 13:32:28 GMT -5
Nothing implies he'll be a solid #2? I have my doubts, sure, but in 2014 he put the same bWAR as Madison Bumgarner so he's done it for a full season. Again, I'm not suggesting any comfort level with him yet but . . . He pitched seven years and aside from 2014, none of those other six years are close to a #2. Players have only one good/great year often. I tend to look at the averages of those other years and, at least to me, I don't see a #2.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 10, 2015 13:36:56 GMT -5
I like Porcello and think he will have a better 2nd year with the Sox. I just don't know he will be a 3.5 era pitcher going forward... he may and I hope, but I just don't want to bet on it.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 10, 2015 13:43:31 GMT -5
Nothing implies he'll be a solid #2? I have my doubts, sure, but in 2014 he put the same bWAR as Madison Bumgarner so he's done it for a full season. Again, I'm not suggesting any comfort level with him yet but . . . He pitched seven years and aside from 2014, none of those other six years are close to a #2. Players have only one good/great year often. I tend to look at the averages of those other years and, at least to me, I don't see a #2. He started pitching in MLB at 21 years old. What were you doing at 21, if you've reached that age yet? Context, it's a wonderful thing.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2015 14:44:24 GMT -5
Nothing implies he'll be a solid #2? I have my doubts, sure, but in 2014 he put the same bWAR as Madison Bumgarner so he's done it for a full season. Again, I'm not suggesting any comfort level with him yet but . . . He pitched seven years and aside from 2014, none of those other six years are close to a #2. Players have only one good/great year often. I tend to look at the averages of those other years and, at least to me, I don't see a #2. Who pitched like a #1 or a #2 for the Royals last year? There's a fine line between trying to put together a team capable of winning the World Series and trying to build a super team with a destroyed future. We're probably 99% certain to not trade for a #2 and I'd actually doubt they sign anyone else.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 10, 2015 14:58:28 GMT -5
He pitched seven years and aside from 2014, none of those other six years are close to a #2. Players have only one good/great year often. I tend to look at the averages of those other years and, at least to me, I don't see a #2. He started pitching in MLB at 21 years old. What were you doing at 21, if you've reached that age yet? Context, it's a wonderful thing. I get that he was young. I hope he pitches the remainder of his contract like he did in 2014. I just don't think we should expect it. By the way, I was serving my 4th year in the United States Army overseas.
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Post by xanderdu on Dec 10, 2015 14:59:41 GMT -5
He started pitching in MLB at 21 years old. What were you doing at 21, if you've reached that age yet? Context, it's a wonderful thing. I get that he was young. I hope he pitches the remainder of his contract like he did in 2014. I just don't think we should expect it. By the way, I was serving my 4th year in the United States Army overseas. 10 4, that wasn't a knock, I had no point of reference on you. Thanks for your service
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 10, 2015 15:08:29 GMT -5
He pitched seven years and aside from 2014, none of those other six years are close to a #2. Players have only one good/great year often. I tend to look at the averages of those other years and, at least to me, I don't see a #2. Who pitched like a #1 or a #2 for the Royals last year? There's a fine line between trying to put together a team capable of winning the World Series and trying to build a super team with a destroyed future. We're probably 99% certain to not trade for a #2 and I'd actually doubt they sign anyone else. I think you're right in that we probably will not trade for a #2 nor sign one, but it does not change my thinking with regards to out current group of pitchers. You are right that we may not need a #2 like KC didn't have, but the title is... "what can be done to fix the sox" and, in my humble opinion, I think we need a #2 pitcher. Just as much as having good years if not more so, I can see our #2 through #5 guys having bad years. I can easily see Porcello with another career average year of 4.39 era. I can see Kelly having about the same. Buchholz may pitch 28... or 14 games... half at 2.00 era and the other half at 4.39 too. ERod in a bit of a rut with hitters studying him more.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 10, 2015 15:24:31 GMT -5
I get that he was young. I hope he pitches the remainder of his contract like he did in 2014. I just don't think we should expect it. By the way, I was serving my 4th year in the United States Army overseas. 10 4, that wasn't a knock, I had no point of reference on you. Thanks for your service Never saw it as a knock buddy. Appriciate the thank you.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 10, 2015 21:09:01 GMT -5
There are still three things they could do that wouldn't be crazy. 1) Trade Tazawa's one year of control, plus necessary prospect(s), for Jake McGee's two years. 2) Trade Kelly plus NPs for a SP who is reliable and clearly better than him or Wright, which is to say a #2 or borderline #2/#3. 3) Trade Rusney Castillo and acquire a LF 1- or 2-year rental like Josh Reddick. I don't see a downside of any sort to #1. You do it if you like the price. With #2, you run the risk of Kelly being nearly as good as the guy you get. That means you explore making a deal, but only make it of it clearly seems like a win because the prospect price is surprisingly low. Given what the Snakes just gave up to get Shelby Miller, that seems very unlikely. There was a pretty good consensus that #3 should wait until perhaps June of next year, since it might prove to be unnecessary. However, they should make a list of candidates (Carlos Gonzalez is another and I'm not sure whether there are any more) and, if all but one get traded and the last guy is on the block, they should explore making the deal now. 1.) Unsure why Tazawa would be in that trade. Rays would rather get more prospects. 2.) This one I get, though they seem in love with Joe Kelly's potential working with the 3 pitch mix he switched to after the All Star break. 3.) No chance in hell Beane would ever do that. No one trades 2 years of a above average OF-er for 5 years of a below average one on a bigger contract. 1) Tazawa's in the trade because he's the guy that McGee replaces in the pen. With Kimbrel, Uehara, Smith, and McGee, the next guy in the pen is hardly pitching high-leverage. I'd just as soon have Elias or Ross as Tazawa in that role. Tazawa would be useful to the Rays (especially as a trade chip at the deadline if he has a great year) and including him reduces the prospect package you need to add. 3) Reddick has 1 year left of control and won't cost that much. And notice how I phrased it. Trade Castillo (for whatever you can get) and acquire someone like Reddick (for whatever it takes). No implication at all that they are being traded for one another. That's what the word "for" is for.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 10, 2015 21:15:19 GMT -5
I really think we need a #2 pitcher. A reliable #2. Porcello is fine,but not at #2 pitcher. He showed in the 2nd half he was better than a 5 era type guy, but looking at his career numbers nothing implies he will be a solid #2. I can see him having another horrible half year just as much as him having a solid full year. Kelly is no where near a sure thing. Same,as Porcello, except less of a track record. Kelly has talent, but we cannot count on him to be anything more than a #4/5 type guy. Rodriguez, for as good as he pitched as a rookie, had some ups and downs. To expect him to be our #2 is unfair. We can hope, but no way we can count on it. Buchholz has a lot of talent.... and mental break downs.... and injuries.... and.... we cannot count on him at all. Wright, Owens, Johnson and Elias are definitely not #2's. The Sox spent a lot improving for this year and the immediate future. If we don't have a #2 it may really limit our chances of winning it all, in my opinion. Porcello is very much a 2 guy. He's produced as such and projects as such. Forget how he started last season, and instead look at who he was after he returned. I'd like a #2 also, but not if it requires gutting the team, or the future; and that's what it requires Yes. It's worth pointing out that they had him throwing way too many 4-seamers; after he returned, he went back to his old pitch mix, and, of all the wacky things, also returned to being as good as he used to be. They have three guys who are very credible candidates to start a game 2: a healthy Buchholz (OK, credible at the talent level), Porcello, and an Eduardo Rodriguez who is throwing his sinker and cutter in addition to the three pitches that made him an elite prospect, and exciting but inconsistent rookie.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 10, 2015 21:26:41 GMT -5
Porcello is very much a 2 guy. He's produced as such and projects as such. Forget how he started last season, and instead look at who he was after he returned. I'd like a #2 also, but not if it requires gutting the team, or the future; and that's what it requires Yes. It's worth pointing out that they had him throwing way too many 4-seamers; after he returned, he went back to his old pitch mix, and, of all the wacky things, also returned to being as good as he used to be. They have three guys who are very credible candidates to start a game 2: a healthy Buchholz (OK, credible at the talent level), Porcello, and an Eduardo Rodriguez who is throwing his sinker and cutter in addition to the three pitches that made him an elite prospect, and exciting but inconsistent rookie. He has a sinker and a cutter?
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