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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 17, 2015 21:11:43 GMT -5
I personally hope one of Castillo or Sandoval isn't on this team by opening day. Too many iffy people in the lineup still. Definitely wishful thinking, but after seeing Dombrowski get someone to take Fielder I won't completely rule a salary dump out.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 18, 2015 2:20:11 GMT -5
I personally hope one of Castillo or Sandoval isn't on this team by opening day. Too many iffy people in the lineup still. Definitely wishful thinking, but after seeing Dombrowski get someone to take Fielder I won't completely rule a salary dump out. [br You nicely summed up some sentiments on this board about a number of question marks. I get the concern and, to some extent, share it. But not so much. This is a young.(but MLB-blooded) team with exceptional potential which finallyneeds to be played out We have 2 young catchers who may be above average this season, supported by one of the best back up catchers in either league. It is logical that HanRam, one of the best pure hitters in the game, will be ready for ST. As he says, he is an IF and can play 1B. Reports are he is looking good. He has Shaw and Holt as backup, both good choices. The hope is for him to be DH in '17. If he messes up, he will be gone so fast he won't know wbat happened, and replaced, even at great cost. If he succeeds as a hitter and decent fielder, he is who we thought we got a year ago. There is zero sense in worrying about it. If it is a problem in 2016, it will be fixed quickly. Can we accept that Pedey and Xander will return from their AZ joint workout even better than 2015? (GG's, SS in 2016?). If you say 'no way', you are more negative than I am optimistic. Panda? Same scenario as HanRam, including Holt, Shaw, and Marrero's great glove. Another problem that can be fixed if needed. Castillo, JBJ, Betts, Young? Halleluia, we are in for a barely believable show, and I can't wait. Castillo's bat and some bonehead rookie moves? There, I said it. Rusney was a rookie ... from Cuba with lots of rust and a new family in a new culture trying to prove he is worth his contract. Seems like some other Cuban players have had their own adjustment problems. Give the rookie a break, and age is irrelevant here. Either he will be fine, or he won't and Chris Young will cover and another solution will be made. And why perseverate about JBJ's bat too. Let's see how he does. Price, Buch, Porcello, ERod, Kelly, Owens, Johnson, Elias, Wright. I am sure not worried about this bunch. If Buch gives us 100+ good innings and then gives the kids a chance to provide 100 more, we all win. Simplistic? Besides Price, Buch and Porcello, there are six pretty good pitchers needing innings and needing to be evaluated. We can hope for 200.IP from Buch, but his worst case scenario is probably better than most; and at least a few of those guys will like outpitch Buerhle, whom I have admired and mis-spelled for years. Unless everything goes wrong that could (and this could happen if we had five aces, Gordon in LF and Davis at 1B) this rotation and this bullpen and this defense can get the 2016 Red Sox into contention; and the offense (OBP, power and speed) should again be among the best. Since 1946, this team has won flags when full of high spirited kids backed by some well grounded vets, both elite and average. This team sure looks that way. Moreso with the commitment by Henry and DDo to do what it takes to win, now and long term. Try to remember pre-Price, Kimbrel, Smith, Elias, Young; or what those kids did after the ASB. It's been like Christmas since August. Enjoy.
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Post by thursty on Dec 18, 2015 3:36:55 GMT -5
In a moment of clarity, this came to me: Price and Kimbrel for Seager and Urias - can undo the damage in one fell swoop
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Post by soxcentral on Dec 18, 2015 7:34:43 GMT -5
Undo what damage?
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Post by rafael on Dec 18, 2015 8:21:03 GMT -5
IMO, something that has been overlooked in this thread and affects the lineup construction deeply is that the Red Sox bench is one of the best in the majors. Holt is arguably the best bench player in baseball, the second string catcher should be great, Shaw played like a starting-caliber player at the end of last season(although that performance was not supported by his minor-league numbers) and Young will probably mash lefties, while playing good defense at LF.
The possible holes in the lineup (1B, 3B, LF, CF) can be mitigated even if three of them struggle, which I don't it's likely. By platooning Sandoval with Holt, sitting Hanley to play Shaw and using Young and Holt to cover if Castillo or Bradley struggle, there is a good chance the lineup won't be worse than what it is expected. Furthermore, even if both Castillo and Bradley can't hit, they wouldn't be unplayable like Ramirez and Sandoval were in 2015 because of their defense alone.
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Post by jiant2520 on Dec 18, 2015 9:17:50 GMT -5
IMO, something that has been overlooked in this thread and affects the lineup construction deeply is that the Red Sox bench is one of the best in the majors. Holt is arguably the best bench player in baseball, the second string catcher should be great, Shaw played like a starting-caliber player at the end of last season(although that performance was not supported by his minor-league numbers) and Young will probably mash lefties, while playing good defense at LF. The possible holes in the lineup (1B, 3B, LF, CF) can be mitigated even if three of them struggle, which I don't it's likely. By platooning Sandoval with Holt, sitting Hanley to play Shaw and using Young and Holt to cover if Castillo or Bradley struggle, there is a good chance the lineup won't be worse than what it is expected. Furthermore, even if both Castillo and Bradley can't hit, they wouldn't be unplayable like Ramirez and Sandoval were in 2015 because of their defense alone. Definitely not overlooked. I love our bench and mentioned in this thread to do, with regards to platooning, some of the things you just said. Our bench is 100% a strength.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 18, 2015 10:00:15 GMT -5
I believe the elephant in the room is that Hanley & Sandoval HAS to play at least passable. If you bench them, they are worthless & clog up a roster spot. It would be a waste of a good team DD has put together. Some of the question marks (& there are a few) on this team should be at least passable. Porcello will probably fall between his poor 1st half & great 2nd half, same with Kelly. Castillo & Bradley will only fall so much as their D should carry them if they don't light it up with the bat. We have depth for Clay. I really hope Hanley/Sandoval have some pride & will come into ST in shape & ready to work.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 18, 2015 13:59:02 GMT -5
The damage of getting one of the premier closers and one of the premier starters, of course. Damn that Dombrowski. I was really looking forward to those Who's the Ace T-Shirts again and I was so sure Koji was going to get through his age 41 season without any issues. And while we're at, it's too bad we received further damage with the Smith and Elias/Miley and Aro deal. I guess it will be a long, long summer....might as well not even play the schedule.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 18, 2015 14:11:28 GMT -5
IMO, something that has been overlooked in this thread and affects the lineup construction deeply is that the Red Sox bench is one of the best in the majors. Holt is arguably the best bench player in baseball, the second string catcher should be great, Shaw played like a starting-caliber player at the end of last season(although that performance was not supported by his minor-league numbers) and Young will probably mash lefties, while playing good defense at LF. The possible holes in the lineup (1B, 3B, LF, CF) can be mitigated even if three of them struggle, which I don't it's likely. By platooning Sandoval with Holt, sitting Hanley to play Shaw and using Young and Holt to cover if Castillo or Bradley struggle, there is a good chance the lineup won't be worse than what it is expected. Furthermore, even if both Castillo and Bradley can't hit, they wouldn't be unplayable like Ramirez and Sandoval were in 2015 because of their defense alone. Definitely not overlooked. I love our bench and mentioned in this thread to do, with regards to platooning, some of the things you just said. Our bench is 100% a strength. Exactly, with Travis Shaw around and Sam Travis on the way up, I'm not overly concerned about Hanley Ramirez. If he can't handle 1b or he gets hurt, the Sox have coverage. Honestly, for all the flack Hanley gets, I really think he'll hit pretty well. He tried to play LF and he tried to build up his body the way he thought a LF should hit and it backfired on him. I know everybody wants him gone, but I really think, if he stays reasonably healthy, he will be an asset in the lineup batting behind Ortiz. His bat was great until he hurt his shoulder last year. As soon as he got hurt, his numbers fell off a cliff. I don't believe he had a loss of ability. I'm not as optimistic about 3b. Sandoval's numbers have been trending downward and last year they plummeted. He didn't condition properly - again. And he's getting older. His age 29 is like age 32 or 33 for another player. I think his body is older because of the condition it's in, and I think at best he plays a little bit better than last year (I'm thinking a .260ish BA, a .300ish OBP and perhaps a SA around .375 - .400.), but it's clear his best days are well behind him. If he plays unacceptably, they are a little exposed at 3b. I believe Holt can hold the fort there. I'm curious (if Hanley plays well or Sam Travis is ready) if Shaw can handle 3b. I know it's his natural position, and if Sandoval is terrible and Hanley is acceptable, Shaw would be my first choice to play 3b. I don't know if Marrero will be the utility man giving the Sox an excellent glove at SS, 3b, and 2b if need be or if they want him getting more ABs in Pawtucket and would go with Rutledge as the utility man. Rutledge can hit a bit, but is mediocre defensively. Young is a strong #4 OF who should play mostly against lefties, but will get a lot of time against righties. Holt is great in his utility man role, and I suspect he'll be needed at 2b when Pedroia gets hurt again, and he gives the Sox another option at 3b or in the OF against a tough righty if they don't want to use Young. And Hanigan is a guy who gets on-base with his walks despite a mediocre bat and very little power. This makes for a pretty strong bench and makes me feel that the Sox can survive if Castillo struggles or Hanley is a disaster or Sandoval is a disaster or Bradley doesn't. Of course, it would be tough if 3 of these scenarios took place, but I think the Sox did a great job putting a strong bench together.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 18, 2015 15:18:24 GMT -5
I would think that Betts, Pedey, Ortiz, Ramirez and Bogaerts in that order to start the year. Unless Ramirez is horrible in spring training or there are injuries. I'd like to see Betts Pedroia Bogaerts Ortiz L Ramirez Sandoval L Castillo Swihart S Bradley L Hanigan Shaw L Holt L Young The first less-than-obvious priority of the lineup construction should be to minimize the number of LHR that Sandoval sees. The way to do that is is to put 2 RHB on either side of him. IOW, spread the three LHB out evenly. The lineup you post is the one I have, except Papi has to hit 3 and Xander 4. That lessens the LHR Papi sees, lessens the ones that Sandoval sees, separates your two best HR threats (B2B homers are exciting, but having a guy walk or single between them is, I believe, somewhat better), and actually puts a better teammate-RBI guy in the cleanup spot. And it seems likely that Pedroia is one of the rare hitters who benefits from protection; Papi provides more. You could make an argument for Pedroia 1 and Betts 2 (the above notwithstanding). In a tiny sample size, Castillo has been hugely better when they can pitch around him, so having him right before the catcher is good. And you might want to swap JBJ and Sandoval at some point, if the former hits as I hope he will.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 18, 2015 15:23:32 GMT -5
I personally hope one of Castillo or Sandoval isn't on this team by opening day. Too many iffy people in the lineup still. Definitely wishful thinking, but after seeing Dombrowski get someone to take Fielder I won't completely rule a salary dump out. Interesting note that's probably been said here 500 times, but I believe the Tigers finished 2nd or 3rd in the bidding on Rusney Castillo. So Dombrowski liked him at one time. Not sure if that love has faded or not.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 18, 2015 16:12:52 GMT -5
I'd like to see Betts Pedroia Bogaerts Ortiz L Ramirez Sandoval L Castillo Swihart S Bradley L Hanigan Shaw L Holt L Young The first less-than-obvious priority of the lineup construction should be to minimize the number of LHR that Sandoval sees. The way to do that is is to put 2 RHB on either side of him. IOW, spread the three LHB out evenly. The lineup you post is the one I have, except Papi has to hit 3 and Xander 4. That lessens the LHR Papi sees, lessens the ones that Sandoval sees, separates your two best HR threats (B2B homers are exciting, but having a guy walk or single between them is, I believe, somewhat better), and actually puts a better teammate-RBI guy in the cleanup spot. And it seems likely that Pedroia is one of the rare hitters who benefits from protection; Papi provides more. You could make an argument for Pedroia 1 and Betts 2 (the above notwithstanding). In a tiny sample size, Castillo has been hugely better when they can pitch around him, so having him right before the catcher is good. And you might want to swap JBJ and Sandoval at some point, if the former hits as I hope he will. I thought about Ortiz 3 and Bogaerts 4 as well. Probably would be better.
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Post by p23w on Dec 18, 2015 16:24:21 GMT -5
If all goes according to Hoyle, this lineup will lead the league in scoring.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 19, 2015 12:41:05 GMT -5
Honestly, I don't want Ramriez just jettisoned. While I don't think it's at all likely he can play even a below average 1b (and I still don't understand why on Earth we didn't try this last year during three months of "mop-up" time), I do think he will hit. Also, he is a natural successor to Ortiz starting in 2017 at the DH spot. I also agree that based on his defense and speed, Castillo will be able to bring a good amount to the table apart from hitting. Sandoval is the one I would love to see gone at pretty much any cost because I really believe that he will just hurt the team offensively and defensively with every game he plays. Becuase of his decent track record up to last season (and I only say "decent" because I think offensively and defensively, he's been in decline the past 5 seasons), he is going to play day in and day out, even when he struggles.
Unfortunately, as the Todd Frazier trade just showed us - there is no way that anyone will take Sandoval. Todd Frazier had back to back season of elite offensive performance (relative to position) and three of the past four, as well as improving his defense (from a dWAR standpoint) in each of the past three. He has two more years of arbitration control, and was basically just traded for the second base equivalent of Jose Iglesias - not much. If a player that valueable is only worth that package, a player that has negative value both offensively, defensively and from a salary standpoint probably wouldn't be picked up if we offered to throw in 75% of his salary - Sandoval is literally less than worthless. Since we won't DFA him, I firmly believe we should begin the season with a Holt / Shaw platoon at 3b and force Pablo to earn his spot back.
The thing that I feel is more likely than anything else to "sink" this team this year is that we continue playing veterans that I expect to under-perform to varrying degrees while having superior options languish on the bench or in Pawtucket.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 19, 2015 14:13:32 GMT -5
In Gammon's latest piece, he drops the nugget that Panda is working out twice a day in the Dominican and has a new diet chef. Thank the lord.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 19, 2015 14:16:28 GMT -5
Mango. I seriously doubt DDo will allow the big $$ players to sink the team while bettrr options are available. He will, I think, act quickly. He and his crew must have some certainty that Panda, Hanley, Porcello, Castillo will play up to their norms, or consider their upside worth an affordable gamble. They are probably right on most of them, and we will know pretty soon. Pitchers and catchers report in less than two months. Yayy
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Post by mandelbro on Dec 19, 2015 16:39:24 GMT -5
In Gammon's latest piece, he drops the nugget that Panda is working out twice a day in the Dominican and has a new diet chef. Thank the lord. That is great news but I still wish we had a platoon partner for him in case he proves incapable of hitting LHP again. Looking over the team's performance last year, the quickest fix you could see was to improve the overall 3B performance by platooning Panda with a RHB. Holt and Shaw have even splits but the overall offensive performance at 3B would really tick up if you had a Danny Valencia type lefty masher to platoon with Panda. Would go from one of the worst teams in the league offensively at 3B to one of the best.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 19, 2015 16:48:47 GMT -5
In Gammon's latest piece, he drops the nugget that Panda is working out twice a day in the Dominican and has a new diet chef. Thank the lord. That is great news but I still wish we had a platoon partner for him in case he proves incapable of hitting LHP again. Looking over the team's performance last year, the quickest fix you could see was to improve the overall 3B performance by platooning Panda with a RHB. Holt and Shaw have even splits but the overall offensive performance at 3B would really tick up if you had a Danny Valencia type lefty masher to platoon with Panda. Would go from one of the worst teams in the league offensively at 3B to one of the best. I think if Shaw makes the roster it'll be because he's shown some diversity in spring between 1B/3B/LF. I think they're gonna give Panda every opportunity to bring it around, and that type of player might mentally make him press if he thinks he's being platooned. (I personally don't hate the idea). Not sure the price of that player is that different between right now and in June, and it has some 40 man implications for a problem we're not sure if we have yet. I honestly feel like DD knows he's not entirely sure what he has yet with this team but is practicing patience. Come June/July, I doubt he will continue to be patient.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 19, 2015 17:50:10 GMT -5
I personally hope one of Castillo or Sandoval isn't on this team by opening day. Too many iffy people in the lineup still. Definitely wishful thinking, but after seeing Dombrowski get someone to take Fielder I won't completely rule a salary dump out. At the time Dombrowski made that trade, Fielder had played 162 games for three consecutive seasons and put up a combined .297/.396/.515 line in that span. Say what you will about the contract and the body and whatever else, but Dombrowski wasn't shopping a broken player. Sandoval looks broken, and Castillo is at the very least unproven.
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Post by rafael on Dec 19, 2015 22:53:21 GMT -5
With probably no more major moves to be made this offseason, I think it is time for the front office to try to sign an extension with Mookie. I was wondering what would it take to extend him and I came up with the following contract:
2016 - 1M 2017 - 1M 2018 - 6M 2019 - 8M 2020 - 10M 2021 - 12M 2022 - 14M 2023 - 16M club option with a buyout (let's say 2M)
This contract would cover his control years and 3 FA years totaling 68M over 8 years, assuming the option is picked up. In this scenario, he would be a FA when he is 31 years old. What do you guys think about it?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 20, 2015 0:08:48 GMT -5
With probably no more major moves to be made this offseason, I think it is time for the front office to try to sign an extension with Mookie. I was wondering what would it take to extend him and I came up with the following contract: 2016 - 1M 2017 - 1M 2018 - 6M 2019 - 8M 2020 - 10M 2021 - 12M 2022 - 14M 2023 - 16M club option with a buyout (let's say 2M) This contract would cover his control years and 3 FA years totaling 68M over 8 years, assuming the option is picked up. In this scenario, he would be a FA when he is 31 years old. What do you guys think about it? I think he is going to want to hit FA before 31 unless he gets a big time contract, and I don't see a 8/68 as worth it for him. He's probably a 200 million dollar guy if he hits FA at a reasonable age (27-28 versus 31). Just my opinion though
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 20, 2015 0:41:22 GMT -5
With probably no more major moves to be made this offseason, I think it is time for the front office to try to sign an extension with Mookie. I was wondering what would it take to extend him and I came up with the following contract: 2016 - 1M 2017 - 1M 2018 - 6M 2019 - 8M 2020 - 10M 2021 - 12M 2022 - 14M 2023 - 16M club option with a buyout (let's say 2M) This contract would cover his control years and 3 FA years totaling 68M over 8 years, assuming the option is picked up. In this scenario, he would be a FA when he is 31 years old. What do you guys think about it? Steamer projects Betts as a 4.8 win player. He is so young that you would expect him to get even better as he gets older, but let's be charitable and project him as a steady 5-win player for those free agent years. 2016 free agents are getting about $8m/win, assuming around 5% annual inflation, that makes Betts' 2021-2023 worth about $160m. You think he'll settle for just a quarter of that, not even guaranteed? I certainly wouldn't advise him to do it.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 20, 2015 1:14:48 GMT -5
The first less-than-obvious priority of the lineup construction should be to minimize the number of LHR that Sandoval sees. The way to do that is is to put 2 RHB on either side of him. IOW, spread the three LHB out evenly. The lineup you post is the one I have, except Papi has to hit 3 and Xander 4. That lessens the LHR Papi sees, lessens the ones that Sandoval sees, separates your two best HR threats (B2B homers are exciting, but having a guy walk or single between them is, I believe, somewhat better), and actually puts a better teammate-RBI guy in the cleanup spot. And it seems likely that Pedroia is one of the rare hitters who benefits from protection; Papi provides more. You could make an argument for Pedroia 1 and Betts 2 (the above notwithstanding). In a tiny sample size, Castillo has been hugely better when they can pitch around him, so having him right before the catcher is good. And you might want to swap JBJ and Sandoval at some point, if the former hits as I hope he will. I thought about Ortiz 3 and Bogaerts 4 as well. Probably would be better. I like Papi 3/Bogey 4 as well. Bogaerts showed a nice ability to go with the pitch last year...I think that helped his RBI numbers, and in the fourth spot that's a nice skill to have. Also, having him fourth means more baserunners for Hanley (unless he suddenly hits HR like Papi). Plus, Papi third means their best hitter gets a few more PA over the course of the season. I think batting your best hitter second or third is preferable to fourth, and Ortiz hits too many bombs to bat second. I also think it gives pitchers an extended sense of unpleasantness in the middle of the order. It's totally unscientific, but it just seems like the mindset of pitchers looking at a perceived "big two" back-to-back isn't as disconcerting as big guy--scrappy puts-it-where-they-ain't and rips mistakes--big guy is. Bogey in the middle somehow seems like he'd get some hits from pitchers losing concentration or having to really change their approach/sequencing. Plus, who knows if he suddenly starts turning on inside pitches for XBH. And it really messes with the use of LOOGYs for Papi...that becomes extremely unpalatable unless the pitcher truly is a LOOGY only (and Papi is easily a good enough hitter that he can neutralize that platoon unless he's struggling). Bringing in a true 7/8th-inning LH with the intention of having him go a full inning with Papi-RH-RH is much worse of a proposition than Papi-RH-Panda.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 20, 2015 1:32:57 GMT -5
With probably no more major moves to be made this offseason, I think it is time for the front office to try to sign an extension with Mookie. I was wondering what would it take to extend him and I came up with the following contract: 2016 - 1M 2017 - 1M 2018 - 6M 2019 - 8M 2020 - 10M 2021 - 12M 2022 - 14M 2023 - 16M club option with a buyout (let's say 2M) This contract would cover his control years and 3 FA years totaling 68M over 8 years, assuming the option is picked up. In this scenario, he would be a FA when he is 31 years old. What do you guys think about it? Steamer projects Betts as a 4.8 win player. He is so young that you would expect him to get even better as he gets older, but let's be charitable and project him as a steady 5-win player for those free agent years. 2016 free agents are getting about $8m/win, assuming around 5% annual inflation, that makes Betts' 2021-2023 worth about $160m. You think he'll settle for just a quarter of that, not even guaranteed? I certainly wouldn't advise him to do it. Yeah, I'd love to see Mookie extended, but I think those last four years are about half or less of what it would take to sign him. By the time he hits his last arb year, he'll be in line for $20M given current salary inflation. Years 3-6 2016-2020 might go 1-2-8-12-16 and the next three 18-20-22. It's probably still a bargain. Maybe toss in an extra million somewhere to make it an even 100. Still not even sure that gets it done. He's no dummy, and he's confident without being arrogant. I'm sure he believes he'll improve, and I doubt he's all that worried he'll get badly hurt. So he's looking at FA at age 27. Heyward just got 8/$184, and has put up arguably weaker (but generally similar) offensive numbers. Given salary inflation, Mookie's looking at 8-10/$220-250 when he hits FA. And that's if he stays around 5-6 WAR. I have little doubt he's capable of 7-9 WAR in at least a couple of years before FA. In RF, with his range, athleticism, and a reasonable chance at putting up some .320/.400/.500 with 25-35 SB seasons in an offensively depressed era? He's a superstar in the making, and it's coming (much) sooner rather than later.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 20, 2015 8:35:45 GMT -5
With probably no more major moves to be made this offseason, I think it is time for the front office to try to sign an extension with Mookie. I was wondering what would it take to extend him and I came up with the following contract: 2016 - 1M 2017 - 1M 2018 - 6M 2019 - 8M 2020 - 10M 2021 - 12M 2022 - 14M 2023 - 16M club option with a buyout (let's say 2M) This contract would cover his control years and 3 FA years totaling 68M over 8 years, assuming the option is picked up. In this scenario, he would be a FA when he is 31 years old. What do you guys think about it? I agree with the other sentiments expressed. The hope he's accept this kind of contract is wishful thinking. There's nothing bigger than being a prime free agent at age 26 - 27 or thereabouts. Guys like Betts and Bogaerts have real shots at $200 million plus contracts if they play close to the way they're projected to play. I'm not sure what it would take to extend Betts through his age 31 season but $68 million in guaranteed money isn't going to do it. I wouldn't think it would even be in the ballpark.
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