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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 20, 2015 9:44:04 GMT -5
I'm no arbitration expert but unless something changed, arbitration doesn't work the way you think it does. No way Betts sniffs 20m in arbitration. It's not a way to get market value, it still surprises market value because you are compared to other players at that point in their careers/salary and it also puts a heavy emphasis on what you'd consider useless things like home runs and awards like MVP finishes etc.
Edit: not to derail the thread (might be ready to move these posts tho), but Betts wouldn't want 8 years unless you were paying more than the team would want. 6 years 70-90 may work.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 20, 2015 9:49:19 GMT -5
I too think people are way to down on Hanley. Other than injury, there's almost no reason to think his bat won't produce. So he'd have to be a train-wreck at first and/or a cancer in the club house. Both are possible, but while he's probably over paid, he's not a problem for this team right now. That bat is damn good and damn exciting.
Sandoval is a different story, but he's too young to write off and not give a chance to restore value. As Jmei has said, second half defense was much better and historically he's been a solid defender there and quality bat. Question mark for sure, but I'd be surprised if he was terrible again this year. Not saying he's going to be great but doubt he's going to suck.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 20, 2015 9:51:37 GMT -5
I love me some Shaw, but my hope is he starts in AAA. Take advantage of his options and get him regular at bats early when everyone is healthy. Holy being on the roster gives you a back up first basemen, even if not ideal. I'd rather him as the back up early so Shaw gets regular ABs. Too early in his career to relegate him to the bench. Too much promise shown last year. He can be there next day should there be an injury.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 20, 2015 12:07:32 GMT -5
I love me some Shaw, but my hope is he starts in AAA. Take advantage of his options and get him regular at bats early when everyone is healthy. Holy being on the roster gives you a back up first basemen, even if not ideal. I'd rather him as the back up early so Shaw gets regular ABs. Too early in his career to relegate him to the bench. Too much promise shown last year. He can be there next day should there be an injury. Interesting thoughts. With Panda seriously working on his shape, stamina and game, he is striving to get back to his norms. Ditto Hanley. Unless Shaw is used in platoons with both, and as defensive replacement in late inning for Hanley, he has no role to start the season and, as you say, would be warming a cold Spring bench rather than developing as a rookie player. Starting the year in AAA specifically for developmental purposes while Hanley and Panda get their grooves back has real merit. Here is where Holt allows creative use of the roster for a month or so. On the other hand, even a regressed Hanley may have injury issues or defensive issues, where Shaw would get ample AB's and innings. ST will probably provide clarity on this.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 20, 2015 12:51:15 GMT -5
I love me some Shaw, but my hope is he starts in AAA. Take advantage of his options and get him regular at bats early when everyone is healthy. Holy being on the roster gives you a back up first basemen, even if not ideal. I'd rather him as the back up early so Shaw gets regular ABs. Too early in his career to relegate him to the bench. Too much promise shown last year. He can be there next day should there be an injury. It is close to where he may only find sporadic at-bats and be a bench player for us. I hope I'm totally wrong about Travis Shaw, but I just don't see him all of a sudden becoming a regular. He had two time periods in the minors where he was absolutely terrible and below average.....one lasted a full year. I'm not sure what I'm advocating on April 1, but instead of worrying about getting him regular at bats in Pawtucket, I hope he shows this Spring in Fort Myers that he can definitely contribute and he comes north with us. To do this, and IMO the only way in plays in Boston, he needs to show competence at 3rd and left, and not just 1st. If I thought another couple of hundred at-bats in AAA would make him a much better player, I'd be all for it. I just don't see him being anymore than a nice bench player (if he can play all 3 positions OK).
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Post by ray88h66 on Dec 20, 2015 13:02:40 GMT -5
I love me some Shaw, but my hope is he starts in AAA. Take advantage of his options and get him regular at bats early when everyone is healthy. Holy being on the roster gives you a back up first basemen, even if not ideal. I'd rather him as the back up early so Shaw gets regular ABs. Too early in his career to relegate him to the bench. Too much promise shown last year. He can be there next day should there be an injury. It is close to where he may only find sporadic at-bats and be a bench player for us. I hope I'm totally wrong about Travis Shaw, but I just don't see him all of a sudden becoming a regular. He had two time periods in the minors where he was absolutely terrible and below average.....one lasted a full year. I'm not sure what I'm advocating on April 1, but instead of worrying about getting him regular at bats in Pawtucket, I hope he shows this Spring in Fort Myers that he can definitely contribute and he comes north with us. To do this, and IMO the only way in plays in Boston, he needs to show competence at 3rd and left, and not just 1st. If I thought another couple of hundred at-bats in AAA would make him a much better player, I'd be all for it. I just don't see him being anymore than a nice bench player (if he can play all 3 positions OK). [/b] I agree. I like him but he's depth. To save quoting, this is for the Hanley stuff. He hasn't played more than 110 games since 2010. Hope all you want. The guy can hit. He doesn't work on his flaws, and can't stay healthy. Have to root for him because he's going to be on the team. He won't hurt as much in 2017. Edit 110 is wrong, just go with staying healthy.
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Post by thursty on Dec 20, 2015 13:32:49 GMT -5
It's not even Christmas yet, and already Sandoval is in the best shape of his life
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 20, 2015 14:27:22 GMT -5
Give me 110 games of 130 WRC+ of Hanley Ramirez and competent defense and I'll be thrilled
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Post by ray88h66 on Dec 20, 2015 14:34:28 GMT -5
Give me 110 games of 130 WRC+ of Hanley Ramirez and competent defense and I'll be thrilled So would everyone.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 20, 2015 19:12:05 GMT -5
It's not even Christmas yet, and already Sandoval is in the best shape of his life Doesn't this kind of report happen every year as a ritual with players on every team? It is always a wait and see. For the Sox on one side who could imagine both Hanley and Panda again being as bad as last year? But both did not adhere to any principled, structured/overseen regimen (Sox fault?!) that would help maximize the ROE. If we do not unload one or both of these guys (and I suspect that we have tried), we have to hope that they will at least be marginally better in 2016. Should that happen (not enthused especially if we start poorly due to perceived attitudes), we could be in the mix. But I am afraid that Cherington's foray/folly will prove to be an anchor on the Sox for several years to come. For me DD will have to be David Copperfield to right this floundering ship beyond the major efforts he has cemented to date.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 20, 2015 22:55:22 GMT -5
I'm no arbitration expert but unless something changed, arbitration doesn't work the way you think it does. No way Betts sniffs 20m in arbitration. It's not a way to get market value, it still surprises market value because you are compared to other players at that point in their careers/salary and it also puts a heavy emphasis on what you'd consider useless things like home runs and awards like MVP finishes etc. Edit: not to derail the thread (might be ready to move these posts tho), but Betts wouldn't want 8 years unless you were paying more than the team would want. 6 years 70-90 may work. Price got $19.75M for 2015, although he was a super-2. Scherzer got 15.5M. Salaries are inflating rapidly. I'm not talking market value...$20M may be a slight overestimate, but the top third-year arbitration values for elite position players are likely to be in the $16-$20M range by that time.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 20, 2015 23:02:53 GMT -5
It is true that HR, RBI, and PA are the big factors in arbitration, with a lot less weight on BA, defense, etc. So that would work in the team's favor. Mookie's probably going to top out around 25HR/90-100 RBI, although his PA numbers will be very high. Certainly, I think $15M is well within range...again, maybe I'm overestimating salary inflation, but it's been skyrocketing. Hence, why I think a longer-term deal may actually suit both parties. Mookie gets paid maybe a little better than he would in arbitration, but gives up some FA years under market value, and the team retains him through his prime.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 21, 2015 9:06:59 GMT -5
I love me some Shaw, but my hope is he starts in AAA. Take advantage of his options and get him regular at bats early when everyone is healthy. Holy being on the roster gives you a back up first basemen, even if not ideal. I'd rather him as the back up early so Shaw gets regular ABs. Too early in his career to relegate him to the bench. Too much promise shown last year. He can be there next day should there be an injury. It is close to where he may only find sporadic at-bats and be a bench player for us. I hope I'm totally wrong about Travis Shaw, but I just don't see him all of a sudden becoming a regular. He had two time periods in the minors where he was absolutely terrible and below average.....one lasted a full year. I'm not sure what I'm advocating on April 1, but instead of worrying about getting him regular at bats in Pawtucket, I hope he shows this Spring in Fort Myers that he can definitely contribute and he comes north with us. To do this, and IMO the only way in plays in Boston, he needs to show competence at 3rd and left, and not just 1st. If I thought another couple of hundred at-bats in AAA would make him a much better player, I'd be all for it. I just don't see him being anymore than a nice bench player (if he can play all 3 positions OK). I can see this spring training being very important for Hanley/Pablo. Even though it's only spring training, if they are not producing, I can see an "oblique" injury by April 1st.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 21, 2015 9:17:17 GMT -5
It's not even Christmas yet, and already Sandoval is in the best shape of his life He's shaped like an ornament, perfect for Christmas.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 22, 2015 12:49:25 GMT -5
I love me some Shaw, but my hope is he starts in AAA. Take advantage of his options and get him regular at bats early when everyone is healthy. Holy being on the roster gives you a back up first basemen, even if not ideal. I'd rather him as the back up early so Shaw gets regular ABs. Too early in his career to relegate him to the bench. Too much promise shown last year. He can be there next day should there be an injury. Shaw will be 26. More PT in AAA is not going to make him any better. It would seriously weaken the MLB bench, however. And he'll get enough PT in MLB to try to show that he's more than a second-division starter (which is what all the evidence says right now).
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Post by telson13 on Dec 24, 2015 17:08:29 GMT -5
In light of the Cardinals' signing of Mike Leake to a market-value but still absolutely ridiculous 5/$80M contract, I have to say that the Mariners made a pretty solid trade for Miley. I still like it from a Sox perspective, but Seattle got a relative bargain, with a short contract that's about $25M less than market. The upshot of that is that, in getting Elias in return, and with the current incredible depth of cost-controlled SPs, the Sox are in great shape to trade from great strength, be it Buchholz (who is looking more and more like a bargain for a contender), Kelly (I hope not), or one of the young guys. And after the Shelby Miller deal, cheap SP returns on the trade market look to be outstanding.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Dec 25, 2015 10:40:00 GMT -5
In light of the Cardinals' signing of Mike Leake to a market-value but still absolutely ridiculous 5/$80M contract, I have to say that the Mariners made a pretty solid trade for Miley. I still like it from a Sox perspective, but Seattle got a relative bargain, with a short contract that's about $25M less than market. The upshot of that is that, in getting Elias in return, and with the current incredible depth of cost-controlled SPs, the Sox are in great shape to trade from great strength, be it Buchholz (who is looking more and more like a bargain for a contender), Kelly (I hope not), or one of the young guys. And after the Shelby Miller deal, cheap SP returns on the trade market look to be outstanding. Ehh, I'm not so sure they're going to trade anyone. Wright possibly if he doesn't make the roster, but with Buch and Kelly likely to not go full years, they need some arms back there. Johnson's arm is a question mark too.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 27, 2015 16:35:27 GMT -5
In light of the Cardinals' signing of Mike Leake to a market-value but still absolutely ridiculous 5/$80M contract, I have to say that the Mariners made a pretty solid trade for Miley. I still like it from a Sox perspective, but Seattle got a relative bargain, with a short contract that's about $25M less than market. The upshot of that is that, in getting Elias in return, and with the current incredible depth of cost-controlled SPs, the Sox are in great shape to trade from great strength, be it Buchholz (who is looking more and more like a bargain for a contender), Kelly (I hope not), or one of the young guys. And after the Shelby Miller deal, cheap SP returns on the trade market look to be outstanding. Ehh, I'm not so sure they're going to trade anyone. Wright possibly if he doesn't make the roster, but with Buch and Kelly likely to not go full years, they need some arms back there. Johnson's arm is a question mark too. I agree as fantasy he winter goes...I'm talking more about during the year, especially as the trade deadline approaches. If they're in good shape, young guys pitching well in AAA, Price doing well, Rodriguez taking a step forward, etc, I could actually see them trading Buchholz or even Kelly, both of who have upside value in addition to their basic value based on their current pitching. I can see a few contenders believing either one would put them over the top. Even in ST, I can see teams inquiring heavily, although I think you're right and the Sox will preserve their depth until it's very likely they don't need to anymore.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Dec 27, 2015 19:08:59 GMT -5
I don't see Buchholz on the roster to start 2017. I suspect, if they can't deal him at this year's deadline, they'll take advantage of the crappy FA class of 2016, and put him on the market. If they deal him mid year, the haul will be substantial.
I'm not as down on Owens and especially Johnson as many here seem to be. I think Owens is on that typical tall, lanky lefty development time line that has them getting it together at 27, or so. Johnson will be a fair #4, or #5 starter when given the chance, imo.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 27, 2015 19:20:06 GMT -5
I don't see Buchholz on the roster to start 2017. I suspect, if they can't deal him at this year's deadline, they'll take advantage of the crappy FA class of 2016, and put him on the market. If they deal him mid year, the haul will be substantial. I'm not as down on Owens and especially Johnson as many here seem to be. I think Owens is on that typical tall, lanky lefty development time line that has them getting it together at 27, or so. Johnson will be a fair #4, or #5 starter when given the chance, imo. I personally am BIG on Brian Johnson. I predict by mid-season he will be in the rotation.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 27, 2015 21:36:03 GMT -5
Anyone else feel this team needs another bat? I know they'd probably have to eat 1/4-1/3 of his money, but if they could find a team in need of an MLB average CF and trade Castillo, I would love to get Upton on a 4 year or even a 1 year pillow deal. I feel like you could slot him between Ortiz and Hanley and have a pretty vicious 1-6 (Mookie, Pedroia, Xander, Papi, Upton, Hanley, Panda, Swihart, JBJ).
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Dec 27, 2015 22:08:54 GMT -5
Anyone else feel this team needs another bat? I know they'd probably have to eat 1/4-1/3 of his money, but if they could find a team in need of an MLB average CF and trade Castillo, I would love to get Upton on a 4 year or even a 1 year pillow deal. I feel like you could slot him between Ortiz and Hanley and have a pretty vicious 1-6 (Mookie, Pedroia, Xander, Papi, Upton, Hanley, Panda, Swihart, JBJ). Upton would be nice on a one year deal, but I really don't think you find any takers for Castillo on this market. Castillo is probably valuable to us as a versatile 4th OF. I think he will hit a bit more and provide us with between 1 to 2 wins. Obviously this is wishful thinking and I'd rather have the proven commodity. But I can't see us signing another position player after Young. In terms of "fixing" the team in another way...Dave Dombrowski has put us in a pretty good position for winning in 2015 and in the future (by keeping the systems top four high-ceiling prospects). Even still, I think one of the keys to the 2015 Red Sox will be how Swihart/Vazquez progress, how well they end up being able to hit in the majors, and the general stability of the catching position. Losing Vazquez and Hanigan last year was a big hit to the team. Having them even just avoid injuries this year should be a boost as long as they are average to above average players as a group (versus somebody extremely below average offensively, like Sandy Leon, who was getting relatively meaningful at-bats this year). Obviously I'm not expecting much from Vazquez too soon and hope that everything goes well in the recovery. But it will definitely be interesting to follow and I'm excited to see if Swihart can take a step forward offensively. This isn't so much of a suggestion as something fun to follow. In any case, 2015 will be a fun one.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Dec 27, 2015 22:47:48 GMT -5
Anyone else feel this team needs another bat? I know they'd probably have to eat 1/4-1/3 of his money, but if they could find a team in need of an MLB average CF and trade Castillo, I would love to get Upton on a 4 year or even a 1 year pillow deal. I feel like you could slot him between Ortiz and Hanley and have a pretty vicious 1-6 (Mookie, Pedroia, Xander, Papi, Upton, Hanley, Panda, Swihart, JBJ). I really don't think they need to do anything at this point. They have question marks, yes; but most of their question marks seem likely to be at least league average, as it pertains to overall performance. There will be time, and trade chips available, mid year should they need to address any area. They're also set with good depth at every position to start the season The depth provides some assurance that even a couple of trouble spots can be addressed effectively from the 40 man roster. Unless an offer too good to pass up comes along I'd rather roll the dice that our undervalued players hit their stride, and then DDo can bargain from strength. If they get, as Bill James projects, a .750 OPS from Castillo, and .780 from Bradley, then combined with their defense and Betts, they''re looking quite excellent in the OF. I'd like to see what this trio could do over a whole season.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 28, 2015 0:24:07 GMT -5
If Castillo shows pretty much anything above a league average bat, he's at worst an equal pay guy, who's potential bat upside probably gives him trade value, though I'm not sure why they'd move him if that's what they're getting. His deal is really not bad at all given the current salary structure.
The only potential problem I see is if at some point they are starting JBJ and Vazquez, both of them end up with sub league average bats, a non-above average Castillo could render a third of the lineup relatively inept offensively. Despite Vazquez and JBJ's defense, I think there is a point where the defense first guy philosophy turns down, at least that's what my logic says. But if the rest of the lineup hits like they could/should, the offense should be great 1-6, so it might not matter.
I don't think they need another bat right now
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 28, 2015 4:19:01 GMT -5
If they get, as Bill James projects I don't believe that Bill James' best projections are publicly available.
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