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2015 Red Sox Trade Deadline Strategy
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 17, 2015 7:40:08 GMT -5
I generally disagree with the idea that the Red Sox cannot compete next year. True-talent-wise, I still think the current roster is something like an 85-win team (Fangraphs projects them to play .531 (86 win pace) going forward), BP projects them to play .524 (85 win pace) going forward). Considering the hole they've dug for themselves, that's not going to be enough to compete for the playoffs this year. But this absolutely could be a playoff team next year. Sandoval is not this bad. Hanley will improve defensively. Betts, Swihart and Castillo will improve, as Bogaerts has this year. The rotation will pitch closer to their peripherals going forward, and are a solidly middle-of-the-pack group. The bullpen is kind of meh, but there are intriguing guys on the horizon (Eduardo Escobar, Barnes, Light) and that's always the easiest to rebuild. As such, while I'm comfortable trading guys who are either pending free agents (Napoli, Victorino, De Aza) or guys who are significant age-related-decline risks (Uehara, Hanigan), I'm hesitant to trade guys like Tazawa and Buchholz unless I get a knock-my-socks-off-type offer. What makes believe that? I don't think you could get anything remotley valuable for this guys. Likely you would not however you could always take advantage of the depth of the farm and package a middle of the road prospect with a player above. I'm would not expect much back other than building depth for next season in the pen and bench and that's fine.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jul 17, 2015 11:04:52 GMT -5
Bleacher report thinks shields could be on the trading block. If so we could send them sandavol and kelly for shields. I would do that simply for the fact that Shields would be easier to move than Sandoval, even if he's a horrible fit for Fenway. Sandoval isn't a key part of this club going forward and he's getting paid like he is. I highly doubt we'd move him though. Probably could use him another year at third and see if he can raise his value and bridge the gap to Moncada/Devers. That would be fantastic for us, by why would San Diego take an underachieving 3b on a bloated contract and terrible sp for shields when they could likely get great value for him?
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Post by jmei on Jul 17, 2015 12:52:16 GMT -5
Not sure why SD would be able to get much of value for Shields. He's one year older and has not performed well this year.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2015 13:26:01 GMT -5
Not sure why SD would be able to get much of value for Shields. He's one year older and has not performed well this year. I'm glad this isn't padresprospects.com and that I'm not reading a thread called "What can be done to fix the Padres?" But if it were, I bet trading for Sandoval isn't mentioned in it.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 17, 2015 13:53:21 GMT -5
“@bnightengale: The #Reds have not packaged Cueto and Chapman in any proposals so far, preferring separate deals, if they do decide to move their closer.”
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 18, 2015 16:10:50 GMT -5
What would you guys think of a Swihart+JBJ for a Schwarber+Willson Contreras? Then give Schwarber a 1B mit. Preseason, most rankings had Swihart over Schwarber due to defense - but I'm not sure if Schwarber's stock has gone up too high. Also - seems like a lot of people here are down on Swihart right now.
JBJ would let Fowler play some LF (I'm also higher on JBJ right now than many)
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nomar
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Posts: 10,918
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Post by nomar on Jul 18, 2015 16:35:51 GMT -5
“@bnightengale: The #Reds have not packaged Cueto and Chapman in any proposals so far, preferring separate deals, if they do decide to move their closer.” Trading for a rental SP, especially Cueto, would be moronic for us. He's overrated (too much name value), injury prone, and will demand a ton in free agency after this year. Why give up great prospects for a playoff push when we only have a 20% chance at making it as of today? Unless a Cueto extension is part of the deal, I'll definitely have to pass. I'd take Hamels over Cueto any day of the week. Hamels has been dominant for a long time. He may be two years older, but has been a horse, especially compared to Cueto. Cueto is following a typical aging curve, peaking 27-30 years old after being solid prior to that. I'm not interested in paying him 25M per or more for six or seven years personally.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 18, 2015 20:01:00 GMT -5
The Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers, and Red Sox are among the clubs still interested in Cole Hamels, reports Ken Rosenthal in his latest video for FOX Sports. Boston is expected to scout Hamels’ start tomorrow, and we can assume other clubs will have a heavy presence as well. Talks with the Rangers aren’t dead, but Texas does expect other teams to make a better offer.
MLBTR
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Post by arzjake on Jul 18, 2015 23:07:45 GMT -5
Yankee series was the wildcard for me. Losing 2 of 3 now 18 shutout innings in LA leads me to believe the Sox are right back in 2012 mode. Huge contracts, one dimensional players, injury prone players and dead last.
Sell and John Henry needs to smell the coffee.
Gardenhire and Dombrowski in 16!
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Jul 19, 2015 8:29:55 GMT -5
I think our deadline strategy must be to sell while buying opportunistically for 2016 going forward. Quite simply, we should actively see what value there is out there for any player that is not part of the core going forward. Even if it's for the literal bag of baseballs, Napoli, Vicotrino, Breslow and DeAza all have to go. Part of this is performance based, the other part (DeAza) is to open up innings in RF to give Jackie Bradley Jr (presently with a .317/.393/.474/.867 line in AAA) an honest chance to win the RF job for the future.
We then have several players that I'd consider legitimate assets to another team. While I wouldn't give these guys away, I'd certainly see if we can get top prospects for them (these are Tazawa, Koji, Holt and Buccholz - though I think we missed the opportunity to get good value for Buchholz to be honest). If we can get more young players to be part of our future core going forward, I'd certainly do it. I'm obviously not saying to give them away, but if Pittsburgh offers something like Jameson Taillon (closest comp I can think of to Rodriguez last year, but the question is injury not performance) you make the move.
On the opportuistic buy side, I'd of course kick the tires on any players you think you might be able to acquire as part of a long term core. This would be something like calling Arizona and seeing if you can basically buy Archie Bradley or Aaron Blair for taking on the rest of Aaron Hill's salary this year and next like the deal they made with Atlanta earlier this year.
The other thing we should do is stop mucking around with the Steven Wright in the rotation experiment. While playoff contention is over (and realistically has been for some time) the season could still be a lot of fun to watch and very important to our future if we can consistently have Rodriguez, Johnson and Owens pitching in the big league rotation.
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Post by jdb on Jul 19, 2015 11:24:05 GMT -5
I hope we get blindsided and BC finds a way to get out of Panda's contract. He'd have to get creative but there's a few bad contracts he could swap. Say SD still would take him maybe for Upton JR. Maybe the Reds. They're rebuilding and maybe they'd be willing to take on a shorter contract in Sandaval and subsidize Vottos back end for us. I feel we could sign a RH 3B like Uribe and have a simi platoon with Holt.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Jul 19, 2015 12:19:13 GMT -5
While I LOVE the idea of getting rid of Sandoval, I just don't see anyone out there who would take on his contract short of us including a piece to give value (in other words, we don't have an Adrian Gonzalez to make someone take this version of Carl Crawford). MAYBE you could get Seattle and Jack Z to take on Sandoval to play 1b if we included Ramirez to be their DH, but I don't even think they'd go for that.
Unfortunately, I believe we're stuck with Sandoval for the duration.
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Post by jdb on Jul 19, 2015 18:43:34 GMT -5
They brought up a good point on Baseball Tonight. Although it's considered a sellers market that doesn't apply to closers with potentially Papelbon, K Rod, Kimbrell, Chapman and even setup guys like Clipard.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 20, 2015 8:57:53 GMT -5
I don't know if it has been referenced here or elsewhere, but Dave Cameron at fangraphs.com has just completed an analysis of who he considers the top 50 players in the major leagues. He includes present and five-year future WAR calculations as well as contract status with each one. Betts is 11th. Bogaerts is 33rd. It's a good read. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-the-top-10/
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,827
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jul 20, 2015 10:54:07 GMT -5
Maybe the best plan is no activity at all. These pitchers are all in their walk-year. All have potential for being swapped before the trade deadline: Cueto, Price, Samardzija, Kazmir, Zimmerman, Ian Kennedy, Mike Leake, Yovani Gallardo, Mat Latos and Dan Haren.
Now certainly they are far from being equal, but if they are traded before August 1, there is no draft pick loss. I hope they all get traded....and not to us. For sure Cueto and Price will be due HUGE compensation and years this offseason. BUT the other guys are not necessarily. Samardzia, Kazmir, Zimmerman, and maybe Leake might fit in our rotation next season as strong #3's. None are aces. But they may help us improve our rotation without compensation.
Personally, I would love for us to sign Price or Cueto, but that probably has no chance of happening.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2015 12:55:18 GMT -5
Maybe the best plan is no activity at all. These pitchers are all in their walk-year. All have potential for being swapped before the trade deadline: Cueto, Price, Samardzija, Kazmir, Zimmerman, Ian Kennedy, Mike Leake, Yovani Gallardo, Mat Latos and Dan Haren. That's how I feel too. I can't remember the last time I had less excitement regarding the trade deadline. Normally, it would be - my team is in it - let's see what they can do to improve the team without mortgaging the future. Or like last year, let's see what we can turn Lester, Lackey, and Miller into. Of course the excitement mostly wore off when the Sox strangely enough hit a home run on their third best trade chip but whiffed badly on their top two trade chips. But this year, there's not much of consequence to trade that would likely result in receiving anything higher than marginal help for the future and the Sox would be stupid to go for it, so I find the intrigue level a lot lower than I normally would. I agree that unless there's a good deal to be had, which is highly unlikely, that their best course of action is standing pat, riding out the rest of the season while giving guys like Bradley or Castillo and Johnson and some of those young relievers a chance, and working on rebuilding the club in the offseason.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,918
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Post by nomar on Jul 20, 2015 13:12:50 GMT -5
I would go after Price, but not Cueto this offseason. Between his arm issues, past injuries, and pitching in MLB's weakest hitting division for most of his career, he is risky and maybe a bit over valued.
Price is an absolute horse and has done it in the worst division to pitch in. If you're going to throw crazy money at an SP, he's the type to do so with. Granted, many people said the same about Verlander, but i don't blame Detroit for that. Odds were that he wasn't collapsing in the near future, and they've gotten unlucky.
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Post by Smittyw on Jul 20, 2015 13:13:08 GMT -5
Or like last year, let's see what we can turn Lester, Lackey, and Miller into. Of course the excitement mostly wore off when the Sox strangely enough hit a home run on their third best trade chip but whiffed badly on their top two trade chips. I still have not forgiven them for this. Ugh.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,918
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Post by nomar on Jul 20, 2015 13:15:18 GMT -5
Assuming Porcello is who he was 13-14, getting him for a half year of Lester is a good trade.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2015 13:22:54 GMT -5
I would go after Price, but not Cueto this offseason. Between his arm issues, past injuries, and pitching in MLB's weakest hitting division for most of his career, he is risky and maybe a bit over valued. Price is an absolute horse and has done it in the worst division to pitch in. If you're going to throw crazy money at an SP, he's the type to do so with. Granted, many people said the same about Verlander, but i don't blame Detroit for that. Odds were that he wasn't collapsing in the near future, and they've gotten unlucky. I know this is an old refrain, but I truly believe that Price will be wearing pinstripes next year (and yes, coming from the idiot who was sure that Moncada was going to be a Yankee). They're almost out from other Sabathia's deal, and the Yankees, when they win, feature a dominating lefty in their rotation. I'm sure you could go back before then, but think of Whitey Ford with those 50s and 60s Yankees, Guidry on those late 70s Yankees, Pettitte and Wells on those super Yankee teams of '96 - '01, and Sabathia at the top of his game in 2009. And we know the Yankees like to spend on proven talent. He fits their needs perfectly, while the Sox are already left-handed heavy in their future rotation with Miley, Rodriguez, Owens, and Johnson. The Yanks have Tanaka and Pineida. I'd be surprised if they went after Cueto or even Greinke (if he could even stand being a Yankee) over Price. I could be very wrong, but I think that Price will be a Yankee, Greinke will remain in LA, and I think the Sox will seriously look at Cueto (maybe they'll be listening to Pedro) and have a legit shot at him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2015 13:24:33 GMT -5
Assuming Porcello is who he was 13-14, getting him for a half year of Lester is a good trade. The Sox did assume that and it hasn't worked out that well in 2015 unfortunately. It's too bad it's not like the old days where Peter Gammons would be totally tied into the front office and the rumored packages would eventually leak out. I wish I knew what prospect packages Ben had on the table for Lester and Lackey.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 20, 2015 13:34:38 GMT -5
I don't know if it has been referenced here or elsewhere, but Dave Cameron at fangraphs.com has just completed an analysis of who he considers the top 50 players in the major leagues. He includes present and five-year future WAR calculations as well as contract status with each one. Betts is 11th. Bogaerts is 33rd. It's a good read. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-the-top-10/It's awesome to see that chart at the bottom with Betts 5 year WAR projections 8th highest in the league, between Posey and Stanton.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Jul 20, 2015 15:36:59 GMT -5
Maybe the best plan is no activity at all. These pitchers are all in their walk-year. All have potential for being swapped before the trade deadline: Cueto, Price, Samardzija, Kazmir, Zimmerman, Ian Kennedy, Mike Leake, Yovani Gallardo, Mat Latos and Dan Haren. Now certainly they are far from being equal, but if they are traded before August 1, there is no draft pick loss. I hope they all get traded....and not to us. For sure Cueto and Price will be due HUGE compensation and years this offseason. BUT the other guys are not necessarily. Samardzia, Kazmir, Zimmerman, and maybe Leake might fit in our rotation next season as strong #3's. None are aces. But they may help us improve our rotation without compensation. Personally, I would love for us to sign Price or Cueto, but that probably has no chance of happening. I look at our roster and do not see many players that we will get back much. I do see a few players being traded. De Aza(who may go threw waviers), Breslow, Ogando, Masterson, Berry, and Ross. Maybe we can get a Marco Hernandez type in a trade. Of course we will add cash if needed. Masterson looked really good in relief and with two more great outings, we could add cash and get a mid-level prospect.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 20, 2015 16:57:50 GMT -5
Assuming Porcello is who he was 13-14, getting him for a half year of Lester is a good trade. More upset with them for muffing the Lester contract talks so badly in the spring, because I'd rather have Lester on the $105-120 million dollar contract they could have gotten than Porcello on his current deal.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 20, 2015 18:52:57 GMT -5
Maybe the best plan is no activity at all. These pitchers are all in their walk-year. All have potential for being swapped before the trade deadline: Cueto, Price, Samardzija, Kazmir, Zimmerman, Ian Kennedy, Mike Leake, Yovani Gallardo, Mat Latos and Dan Haren. Now certainly they are far from being equal, but if they are traded before August 1, there is no draft pick loss. I hope they all get traded....and not to us. For sure Cueto and Price will be due HUGE compensation and years this offseason. BUT the other guys are not necessarily. Samardzia, Kazmir, Zimmerman, and maybe Leake might fit in our rotation next season as strong #3's. None are aces. But they may help us improve our rotation without compensation. Personally, I would love for us to sign Price or Cueto, but that probably has no chance of happening. I look at our roster and do not see many players that we will get back much. I do see a few players being traded. De Aza(who may go threw waviers), Breslow, Ogando, Masterson, Berry, and Ross. Maybe we can get a Marco Hernandez type in a trade. Of course we will add cash if needed. Masterson looked really good in relief and with two more great outings, we could add cash and get a mid-level prospect. I think tawaza has value. We could get a decent prospect for him.
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