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8/18 ML Gameday Thread: Anderson Espinoza pitches in the GCL
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Post by telluricrook on Aug 18, 2015 19:56:40 GMT -5
Best Red Sox pitching prospect since the Rocket. No question at this point. No. Clay Buchholz was a better prospect. Nowadays people sort of take him for granted, but Clay was just a ridiculous prospect back in the day. Ya he jumped to the majors from portland and had that over the top delivery his curve and change were great in that no hitter |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 18, 2015 20:00:43 GMT -5
Moncada hits for some serious power vs LHP. Good line vs RHP too, but he has been scary against LHP. Batting lh vs reliever, Moncada pokes a fly to left that carries to the wall and is almost caught but falls for a double. Then he steals 3rd on a close call When Danny Mars was batting scoreboard showed his stats but a pic of Veronica Mars |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 18, 2015 20:02:23 GMT -5
Moncada hits for some serious power vs LHP. Good line vs RHP too, but he has been scary against LHP. Batting lh vs reliever, Moncada pokes a fly to left that carries to the wall and is almost caught but falls for a double. Then he steals 3rd on a close call When Danny Mars was batting scoreboard showed his stats but a pic of Veronica Mars Can't wait to see what he does next year. Also that Mars story is hilarious. |
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Post by ibsmith85 on Aug 18, 2015 22:39:11 GMT -5
Seconded on the Veronica Mars story. So funny. I can imagine the dugout in tears laughing at him. How do you not K in that AB.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 19, 2015 0:16:01 GMT -5
He's been so thoroughly dominant that I agree re: the double-skip. I don't really know that that's true. Prior to today's start, he had a 7.59 K/9 and a 2.53 BB/9 in 32.0 IP in his GCL stint. That's obviously still really, really good, and it'll get even better with today's masterpiece, but I think you're exaggerating his success at least a little. He doesn't crack the top 10 in FIP for pitchers with as many innings as he does in the GCL, for instance (though he does rank second in ERA and fifth in WHIP), and he's not really faced hitters a third time through the order. Hell, we had a few posts the other day from posters who were confused by why he wasn't striking out more GCL hitters. Of course, he also scouts really well and there's obviously an argument to be made that he should be promoted. I just wanted to push back slightly on the idea that he's been dominating the GCL. ADD: ramireja makes the point much more succinctly above. I'll add that this is the kind of thing where I'd trust the Red Sox player development folks much more than our box score-based frustrations. They have a much better idea of his player development needs and whether he's ready for a promotion than we are. The "third time through the order" argument is certainly valid. I guess my feeling is that, while overall he's just been very good, he has been improving recently, with higher k/9 rates and less hard contact. He's still also given up no HR. And while I see your point re: FIP, I'd be curious as to who is above him; some of those players may be substantially older and relying on offspeed stuff and largely command, the type of guy who dominates in Rookie ball and then gets lit up in high-A ball. In the end, yeah, he might still be improving, and may have a modicum more to learn at his cutrrent level, but I'm of a mind that working in the meaty part of the learning curve is a lot more beneficial than near the plateau of the asymptote. Adaptation guides learning, and I question the amount of adaptation that the GCL has left to impose on him. But I see your point. If Dombrowski trades Espinoza, I am quitting the Red Sox until DD is gone. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 19, 2015 0:30:53 GMT -5
This has probably been asked a million times, but Short Season to Low A isn't really much of a jump, is it? I thought Short Season is basically mainly for college draftees who have already played long seasons. There's an interesting mix of college guys, international players, and a few high school graduates. It really is all over the map and that can make it difficult to figure out what you're looking at. A 22-year college reliever can come in, mow down the talent, and look like he's a star. Move him up the ladder one notch and he might come across as a refugee from a pickup softball game. This is based on data through 2004. 10 years of it? I can't recall. Whether it's changed since then, I don't know. I couldn't find a significant difference between the jump from the Rookie to Short-Season, and Short-Season to Low-A. A pitcher with an 80 ERA- at a given level would have the following after jumping: 106 from R to A- 106 from A- to A 104 from A to A+ 107 from A+ to AA 105 from AA to AAA 114 from AAA to MLB However, it's not a strict multiplier. He's been so thoroughly dominant that I agree re: the double-skip. I don't really know that that's true. Prior to today's start, he had a 7.59 K/9 and a 2.53 BB/9 in 32.0 IP in his GCL stint. That's obviously still really, really good, and it'll get even better with today's masterpiece, but I think you're exaggerating his success at least a little. He doesn't crack the top 10 in FIP for pitchers with as many innings as he does in the GCL, for instance (though he does rank second in ERA and fifth in WHIP), and he's not really faced hitters a third time through the order. Hell, we had a few posts the other day from posters who were confused by why he wasn't striking out more GCL hitters. Of course, he also scouts really well and there's obviously an argument to be made that he should be promoted. I just wanted to push back slightly on the idea that he's been dominating the GCL. ADD: ramireja makes the point much more succinctly above. I'll add that this is the kind of thing where I'd trust the Red Sox player development folks much more than our box score-based frustrations. They have a much better idea of his player development needs and whether he's ready for a promotion than we are. Indeed, if you thought he was merely as good as his overall record, you might promote him to Lowell, where you'd expect him to have a league-average FIP according to the formulas used above. However, the 0.87 FIP (25 FIP-) of his last 3 starts translates to 1.34 in the NYPL, 2.04 in the SAL, 2.59 in Car, and 3.56 in the EL, which is a 98 ERA- in that league. When you get results like that you begin to suspect that you've got a guy pitching so well that he's broken the translation system. So the only question is whether he has anything left to learn in the GCL after these 3 starts, the most recent of which was the most dominant of all. |
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Post by wskeleton76 on Aug 19, 2015 1:41:31 GMT -5
Promote the kid to Lowell. Let him taste A ball. It would help him to prepare for next season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 19, 2015 1:47:36 GMT -5
This has probably been asked a million times, but Short Season to Low A isn't really much of a jump, is it? I thought Short Season is basically mainly for college draftees who have already played long seasons. As far as level-to-level jumps go, I view the jump from the GCL to the NY-Penn league as a fairly sizable one. SS-A to low A is a more moderate jump. Sounds about right. Biggest difference is probably off-field. Lowell, the players are in the dorms. Greenville it's the regular minors - host families and shared apartments and the like. I'd be stunned if they pushed him to Greenville. I'd be very surprised if he didn't get a cup of coffee in Lowell. Also, the GCL squad is also in the playoff race, so I don't think you'll see any massive promotion. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 19, 2015 2:14:02 GMT -5
The other Espinoza: 6IP 2H 1ER 2BB 8K 4.72 FIP in his first 6 starts, 2.31 in his last 6 (27 IP, 32 SO, 9 BB, 1 HR). Meanwhile, Jose Zacarias at age 18 and 5'11", 160 lbs is unlikely to be a prospect, but with his FIP down to 2.81 and ERA down to 2.74, he's someone you can pay some attention to. Hmmm ... debuting at age 19 and 6'0", 155, Eduard Bazardo is even less likely, but he has a 2.04 FIP in his last 7 starts (after 3.57 in his first 6). Even Gary Calvo, who had a 6.72 FIP until three starts ago, has put up 2.28 over his last 3. That's much likelier to be a SSS fluke than a genuine improvement, of course, then Espinoza, Bazardo, or Darwinson Hernandez. Add Acosta, Reyes, Garcia, and Pantoja (not to mention Anderson E and Raudes stateside) and it's an interesting bunch to follow. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 19, 2015 2:28:09 GMT -5
This has probably been asked a million times, but Short Season to Low A isn't really much of a jump, is it? I thought Short Season is basically mainly for college draftees who have already played long seasons. As far as level-to-level jumps go, I view the jump from the GCL to the NY-Penn league as a fairly sizable one. SS-A to low A is a more moderate jump. This may well be true, BTW, now that I think back to how I did my translations. There are a lot fewer pitchers who move between these two pairs of levels than between all the other pairs, because many clubs have a team in R+ (Appalachian and Pioneer leagues) instead of either a Rookie or A- team. So the sample sizes I had weren't big enough to calculate the differences for the two pairs of levels, so I lumped all the data together to get the average (and hence an accurate total) of the two jumps. |
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Post by templeusox on Aug 19, 2015 2:31:39 GMT -5
As far as level-to-level jumps go, I view the jump from the GCL to the NY-Penn league as a fairly sizable one. SS-A to low A is a more moderate jump. Sounds about right. Biggest difference is probably off-field. Lowell, the players are in the dorms. Greenville it's the regular minors - host families and shared apartments and the like. I'd be stunned if they pushed him to Greenville. I'd be very surprised if he didn't get a cup of coffee in Lowell. Also, the GCL squad is also in the playoff race, so I don't think you'll see any massive promotion. If he gets promoted, I think it's much more likely he goes to Greenville. |
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Post by semsox on Aug 19, 2015 7:08:17 GMT -5
Even if Espinoza's K/9 and such aren't as elite as you'd like to see, he's got a nearly 70% GB rate. This isn't some lucky stretch, these guys can barely get the ball to the outfield against him.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 19, 2015 9:26:37 GMT -5
Espinoza is striking 24.5% of batters in the GCL, which is really great. He's in a situation where his K/9 rate is misleadingly low because he's getting through innings so quickly.
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