Trading Swihart: The Discussion Thread

I say trade whomever gives the most surplus value. If Swihart gives sufficient surplus value, then sure, trade away. Catchers do not seem like other position players in terms of risk, they seem more like pitchers in terms of longevity. I quess I am more comfortable with the Ross/Hanigan type catcher, one whose strengths lie in defense and game calling, yet come pretty cheap and are more or less always available. So if Vasquez doesn't come back as amazing as he was, I still trust his pitch framing and game calling. And if his CS% suffers some or even dramatic decline, he will most likely still be average to above average in that deparment.

Some posters seem to assume that the sox will "lose" any Swihart trade, that he will be given away for nothing, which is, of course, not necessarily true. If Swihart brings back equal or better talent at a position of need and scarcity (like front-line starting pitching), plus surplus value, then the sox should do it.

I will admit, however, that if you substitute the name "Bradley" for Swihart, I might not be so sure of my surplus-value argument.

This sentiment, which is prevalent on the board, is flat out wrong. Both Vasquez and Swihart are far too valuable for part-time duty, and it would be a waste of resources, especially  considering the needs of the Red Sox. Sure, wait to see if Vasquez comes back near to his previous form, but then you trade one of those talents for areas of need: elite, young, controllable pitching. Let competent backup catchers fill the role of back-up catcher.  

I prefer the defense of Vasquez to the offense of Swihart, so I would trade Swihart, but the only wrong answer would be to keep both with the intent of splitting time.

I'd take another position, one not listed in the options: trade Hanigan.

The prime reason for acquiring Hanigan was to mentor Vasquez in his first full year in the majors. That, obviously didn't happen. Swihart was force fed the lead role as catcher with Hanigan switching his mentoring to him.

But, in two seasons, we have seen Vasquez emerge as a potential #1, and the same for Swihart. What else is left to mentor in 2016?

Sure, Hanigan won't return the same cache as either of his two pupils, but he has value and could return a good RP or prospect if he is traded. After the 2016 season, we see how the two kids have performed in threir second full ML seasons and decide if moving one of them can net the team a quality starter.

That's a better idea if Christian Vazquez proves fully healthy. I really don't want to send one of our young catchers.

Look I have no idea where you got the notion that Vasquez is an All-Star catcher. First thing first, he has to officially come back from TJS. Matt Weiters in his return has struggled mightily with his CS% dropping by a full 10% from his 37% at his 3 seasons prior to the injury to just 27% this year. In addition, his defense is very, very good but if his best case scenario offensive peak is .250/.310/.350, then he'll never be an All-Star, let alone a starter. Vasquez has the perfect makeup of a career elite backup catcher. And that's not to say that he's a bad player, there are players like David Ross, Hanigan, Jose Molina, Jeff Mathis, and hundreds of others have made long careers as offensively challenged but elite defensive backups. I'm sorry but Vasquez will never be a legitimate starter on a playoff team.

That's not to say that he's not a valuable piece of the Red Sox future. Give him 60-70 starts a year and have him be the personal catcher of a particularly vulnerable pitcher in the rotation like Buchholz. Swihart catches the other 90-100 and plays around 50 more games in other positions to get his bat in the lineup. That's how you maximize the value of the roster, not by disposing Swihart for young pitching when you have other chips to trade (Devers and Margot the most notable) and trying to fit a triangle into a square hole by burdening Vasquez with a starting role that he simply doesn't have the ability to perform well in.

I'm with you there, I was just addressing his assertion that Vasquez is an All-Star catcher. I think that at his peak, Vasquez could be worth 1.5 to 2 WAR a season defensively as a starter, but that is contingent on him coming back 100% from TJS which I won't be convinced of until I see his progress. But if he's consistently putting up replacement level seasons offensively, I'd much rather have Swihart who I think could be a 5.0+ WAR player at his peak (4.0+ offensively, 1.0 defensively).

Maybe? Unquestionably, unless something unforeseeable happens in the next few years.

One other question enters my mind. I just saw a commentary along the lines of "It's time for umpires to stop calling balls and strikes." What if MLB started on a path toward using automated pitch-calling? A lot of CV's value is nullified in that case, isn't it? Do you want to trade Swihart and then have that happen?

Of course, I don't have the foggiest idea what the probability is that MLB would go to automated pitch calling in the next several years.

Another thought: Catcher is such a high injury-risk position. We lost both of ours this year. I just hate trading from depth at this particular position.

This is a really interesting topic Eric, thanks for starting it. While it's not yet posted, my vote is going to be that you hold on to them both for 2016 and then re-evaluate where the catching position is at. That said, I think my long term answer is likely to remain the same - you keep both of them for the next several years at least. I think that the reasons to keep them both through next season are fairly obvious, and have pretty much been agreed to by many in this thread (the biggest two being we don't know how CV is going to respond to injury AND that he just lost a year of offensive development and working with the pitching staff).

My long term plan (assuming they both prove to be capable Major League players - not a given, but a necessary assumption because if not you'd clearly say "obviously, trade the one that wont be an asset") is that you have Vazquez catch around 120 games while Swihart catches 42 and spends about 100 at first base and a handful at DH. Swihart was clearly rushed this season, but he has adjusted wonderfully and one can reasonably project that if he weren't focused on catching 130 games a year, his offense would summarily improve to the point where he could be carried rather easily at 1b (though more in the Eric Hosmer type of hitter than the lumbering slugger some of us are used to).

Regarding the equally important question about starting pitching, I also makes the assumption that you couldn't trade Swihart straight up for someone like Sonny Gray - you'd have to include pieces like Margot, Guerra and lets say Teddy Stankiewicz with him AND that on their own, a package of those three plus another top 20ish piece could get you a solid #2/#3 starter on their own.

I feel as though I make this point in every thread (and for that I'm sorry) but it's important to discuss where I think the "money" in my scenario comes from. I move Sandoval for whatever money you can get (probably around $8-$10m a year in savings) and also either decline the option on Buchholz or pick it up and deal him for a prospect to get the $13m a year, and use that (with probably another $6m a year or so) to sign David Price. You then trade Margot, Guerra, Stankiewicz and "Marco Hernandez" for a pitcher like Jose Quintana.

For the next several years you have a very formidable rotation of Price, Quintana, Porcello, Miley and Eduard Rodriguez. You use the St Louis model of bringing young pitchers in through the 'pen and still have depth of some combination between the 'pen and Pawtucket of Stephen Wright, Joe Kelly, Brian Johnson, Henry Owens, William Cuevas, Edwin Escobar, Matt Barnes, etc. If one of them displaces Miley, that's even better, and if two of them pan out, it makes it much easier to have Price slotting in as an over-priced back of the rotation starter at the end of his contract.

Offensively you have Vazquez, Swihart, Pedroia, Shaw, Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley Jr, Castillo and Ortiz with a "bench" including Ramirez, Holt, Rutledge and just need to find a 4th OF and maybe a RHH slugger who crushes LHP and can play 1b. When Ortiz retires, you find a LHH bat that can crush RHP as well.

You also hold on to the cream of the prospect crop including Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, Benintendi, Kopech and Travis. There you have it, my short term and long term plan, as requested.

Bury, I just asked an honest question. You don't have to get snarky about it.

My question is, if we were to trade Swihart, why WOULDN'T we hold out for getting a cost-controlled premium starter no worse than straight up for him? Swihart is cost-controlled too, catcher is as valuable a commodity as any position on the field, good all-around catching is extremely difficult to find, and a starting catcher could easily play 120-130 games or more, whereas a starting pitcher controls a major part of only a little more than 30 games. Catcher is a relatively high-injury-risk position because of the vagaries of the game; pitching is a relatively high-injury-risk position because of the vagaries of the arm.

If somebody is hot on Sonny Gray, for example, I say Swihart for Gray straight up.

I hope that list was meant tongue in cheek bro. Most were fringy ballplayers anyway, other than Hundley who did come all the way back and produce. John Baker came back, though he could never throw before he got hurt, just couldn't hit after his injury. It did seem to ruin his career for some reason as he had won the marlin's job and the injury ruined that chance.

The rest? Just an injury that made them even more fringy as minor leaguers for the most part.

This is a good example of why it is important to actually read the content to which you are responding  (and previous posts). Please see bolded above. Neither Swihart or Vasquez are all-stars, and, as others have pointed out, all-star is really just a proxy for "really, really good player." And a lot of their value is potential value, despite good performances by both players in relatively small sample sizes

The crux of the issue is pretty complex, but nothing really hinges on either BS or CV becoming all-stars. It rests on how one feels about several questions: 

1.) Do you believe CV will come back from TJS to the point where he closely approximates his 2014 defensive numbers?
2.) How much value does one place on pitch-framing and game calling as opposed to more easily quantified offensive measures? 
2.) Do you believe that BS has defensive upside?
3.) Where do you believe BS true talent level is on offense?
4.) Does CV have reasonable offensive upside?
5.) Do you believe that it is worth keeping both CV and BS on the team to split catching duties, even if they both play at their optimum levels? Or should you trade one of them to fill another need on the team?
6.) Do you think BS has sufficient offensive value that it is worth playing him at 1b or another position down the defensive spectrum from catcher? 

I have already made it clear how I feel about the questions, but I think those who advocate for simply keeping both long-term (not just to see if CV recovers TJS) haven't really responded to the idea that it is a waste of limited resources to keep both on the roster.