SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Trading Swihart: The Discussion Thread
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 10, 2015 15:07:41 GMT -5
If Papi was 29 instead of 39, maybe. I'm sure most wouldn't have thought twice about trading Mookie in 2013 or Shaw and JBJ this year for a relief pitcher either. Papi is still hitting like he's 29 and I wouldn't trade Mookie for anyone ever. He's going to be the best hitter on this team after Ortiz retires. Now you wouldn't. I said in 2013 when he 'was just a prospect' like all the other ones you're so willing to trade now.
|
|
|
Post by dcsoxfan on Sept 10, 2015 15:38:33 GMT -5
The 2005 Red Sox won 95 games; that's probably at least 15 games more than the 2015 Red Sox will win.
The 2005 Red Sox had four major stars 29 or over: Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, Jason Varitek; the 2015 Red Sox have one (Ortiz). There were reasons for the 2015 Red Sox to be in win-now mode.
The 2005 Red Sox had the financial resources to bring in Matsuzaka, Drew and Lugo and to extend Beckett and Lowell; the 2015 Red Sox have salary space for at most one more all-star caliber player.
The 2005 Red Sox had zero impact players under the age of 26; the 2015 Red Sox have at least five: Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Bradley Jr., Rodriguez. These players provide more time and less predictability.
The 2005 Red Sox were competing for one wild card; the 2015 Red Sox will compete for one of two.
There were a whole lot of reasons why trading prospects made a whole lot more sense for the 2005 Red Sox than it does for the 2015 Red Sox. And it isn't clear the Beckett trade was a good one. The players the Red Sox received either generated 1/2 the WAR of the players they gave up or produced the same WAR for $75 million more (depending on how one treats contract extensions in the calculation). We don't know how many titles the Red Sox would have won with Ramirez/Sanchez and the extra money.
Trading for Sonny Gray or Carlos Carrasco or even Tyson Ross is like shopping at Niemen-Marcus; you'll get quality but you'll also pay extra for the brand name. The best GMs are the ones who know how to find under the radar guys; that's what we should be hoping for from Dombrowski.
Finally Red Sox fans don't fully appreciate how hard it is to acquire good prospects. Each year there are approximately 60 players who put up 4 WAR or more. There is clearly well less than one impact player per team per draft + IFA class. The Red Sox have done an incredible job up to now, but slotting and the proliferation of knowledgeable prospect reporters mean there will be fewer opportunities for a perreniel winner to acquire cost-controlled Impact talent. Trading two such players like Swihart and Margot, even for a pitcher like Gray, is not a slam-dunk.
The 2016 Red Sox should, with modest upgrades to the pitching staff, cruise to a wild card, and it has sufficient young talent that it should continue to get better through the end of the decade. It also, however, has enough uncertainty, due to that youth, that things could go wrong.
I believe a more conservative strategy of holding high impact prospects, at least another year makes the most sense for a team with this window and this uncertainty in outcome.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Sept 10, 2015 18:33:38 GMT -5
Also, like others here, I wonder if Hanigan isn't a more likely chip to be dealt in the off season. Less than a year ago, Hanigan's trade value was Will Middlebrooks. Don't think it has gone up much since then.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 10, 2015 19:17:46 GMT -5
Also, like others here, I wonder if Hanigan isn't a more likely chip to be dealt in the off season. Less than a year ago, Hanigan's trade value was Will Middlebrooks. Don't think it has gone up much since then. Actually it's the other way around. Middlebrooks value has gone down that much. There were lots of people on this board who hated that trade.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Sept 10, 2015 21:46:56 GMT -5
Actually it's the other way around. Middlebrooks value has gone down that much. There were lots of people on this board who hated that trade. There were? Don't really remember that... I know that I loved the trade.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Sept 10, 2015 21:50:08 GMT -5
Actually it's the other way around. Middlebrooks value has gone down that much. There were lots of people on this board who hated that trade. There were? Don't really remember that... I know that I loved the trade. Yep. Crazy as it seems now (and frankly, it was pretty crazy at the time too), there were a lot of people saying stuff along the lines of "how can they sell low on a young power hitter and only get a backup catcher?"
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 10, 2015 23:51:47 GMT -5
Gray is a lot better than Beckett, but consider this if you think the Hanley/Beckett swap was a winning move: Hanley as a Marlin: 4.4, 5.2, 7.5, 7.1, 4.2, .9, 1.1 WAR (30.4 WAR, $70 million) Beckett as a Red Sox: 1, 5.7, 4.1, 4.2, .9, 3.3, 1.4 WAR (20.6 WAR, $108 million) Anibal Sanchez as a Marlin: 1.9, 0, .3, .7, 3.9, 3.5, 2.1 (12.4 WAR, $15 million)a 2007 world series championship. Without Beckett you don't get that ring. That beats out anything you just posted That is an assumption made by the masses as a trumped all comment. That does not make it right or wrong.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,020
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 11, 2015 2:23:29 GMT -5
Agreed, although the real surplus is with CF, so that will be interesting to watch. Margot aside, this team has 3 MLB players who could all legitimately be sold as CFs - Bradley, Betts and Castillo. That is a position of wealth more so than catcher. Also, like others here, I wonder if Hanigan isn't a more likely chip to be dealt in the off season. If Swihart is a starter, then all they need is a capable back-up to go every 5th day. And their corner outfielders are a) their backup SS, b) Allen Craig, and c) Bryce Brentz. As I've explained a bunch of times, there's a dearth of corner OF talent these days, so CFers lose very little value moving to a corner. And OF in general is not currently a position of depth at all. They actually need to acquire a RHH 1B / OF for the bench in the offseason, unless Craig is mysteriously resurrected in the next three weeks.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Sept 11, 2015 4:31:31 GMT -5
The 2005 Red Sox won 95 games; that's probably at least 15 games more than the 2015 Red Sox will win. The 2005 Red Sox had four major stars 29 or over: Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, Jason Varitek; the 2015 Red Sox have one (Ortiz). There were reasons for the 2015 Red Sox to be in win-now mode. The 2005 Red Sox had the financial resources to bring in Matsuzaka, Drew and Lugo and to extend Beckett and Lowell; the 2015 Red Sox have salary space for at most one more all-star caliber player. The 2005 Red Sox had zero impact players under the age of 26; the 2015 Red Sox have at least five: Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Bradley Jr., Rodriguez. These players provide more time and less predictability. The 2005 Red Sox were competing for one wild card; the 2015 Red Sox will compete for one of two. There were a whole lot of reasons why trading prospects made a whole lot more sense for the 2005 Red Sox than it does for the 2015 Red Sox. And it isn't clear the Beckett trade was a good one. The players the Red Sox received either generated 1/2 the WAR of the players they gave up or produced the same WAR for $75 million more (depending on how one treats contract extensions in the calculation). We don't know how many titles the Red Sox would have won with Ramirez/Sanchez and the extra money. Trading for Sonny Gray or Carlos Carrasco or even Tyson Ross is like shopping at Niemen-Marcus; you'll get quality but you'll also pay extra for the brand name. The best GMs are the ones who know how to find under the radar guys; that's what we should be hoping for from Dombrowski. Finally Red Sox fans don't fully appreciate how hard it is to acquire good prospects. Each year there are approximately 60 players who put up 4 WAR or more. There is clearly well less than one impact player per team per draft + IFA class. The Red Sox have done an incredible job up to now, but slotting and the proliferation of knowledgeable prospect reporters mean there will be fewer opportunities for a perreniel winner to acquire cost-controlled Impact talent. Trading two such players like Swihart and Margot, even for a pitcher like Gray, is not a slam-dunk. The 2016 Red Sox should, with modest upgrades to the pitching staff, cruise to a wild card, and it has sufficient young talent that it should continue to get better through the end of the decade. It also, however, has enough uncertainty, due to that youth, that things could go wrong. I believe a more conservative strategy of holding high impact prospects, at least another year makes the most sense for a team with this window and this uncertainty in outcome. If Ben was still the gm I could see him sticking to that plan but DumDombrowski is in charge now. He will make the prospect trades that Ben would of protected. I have no doubt in my mind DumDombrowski will be after both Sale and Gray with an eye to getting one of those players. If he can get price to come here, then even better. Everyone is out of their minds if they think DumDombrowski isn't going to just that and go hard after Gray or Sale, especially if he doesn't get price.
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Sept 11, 2015 6:46:22 GMT -5
I don't know if you're being sarcastic or not, but our new GM is anything but dumb. Just look at the accolades attributed to him by other baseball people. And, one of his first moves was directing Lovullo to move Ramirez to 1B. This, after quickly observing his play in the outfield. Little to soon to be attaching unflattering descriptions to his surname.
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 11, 2015 7:41:20 GMT -5
The 2005 Red Sox won 95 games; that's probably at least 15 games more than the 2015 Red Sox will win. The 2005 Red Sox had four major stars 29 or over: Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, Jason Varitek; the 2015 Red Sox have one (Ortiz). There were reasons for the 2015 Red Sox to be in win-now mode. The 2005 Red Sox had the financial resources to bring in Matsuzaka, Drew and Lugo and to extend Beckett and Lowell; the 2015 Red Sox have salary space for at most one more all-star caliber player. The 2005 Red Sox had zero impact players under the age of 26; the 2015 Red Sox have at least five: Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart, Bradley Jr., Rodriguez. These players provide more time and less predictability. The 2005 Red Sox were competing for one wild card; the 2015 Red Sox will compete for one of two. There were a whole lot of reasons why trading prospects made a whole lot more sense for the 2005 Red Sox than it does for the 2015 Red Sox. And it isn't clear the Beckett trade was a good one. The players the Red Sox received either generated 1/2 the WAR of the players they gave up or produced the same WAR for $75 million more (depending on how one treats contract extensions in the calculation). We don't know how many titles the Red Sox would have won with Ramirez/Sanchez and the extra money. Trading for Sonny Gray or Carlos Carrasco or even Tyson Ross is like shopping at Niemen-Marcus; you'll get quality but you'll also pay extra for the brand name. The best GMs are the ones who know how to find under the radar guys; that's what we should be hoping for from Dombrowski. Finally Red Sox fans don't fully appreciate how hard it is to acquire good prospects. Each year there are approximately 60 players who put up 4 WAR or more. There is clearly well less than one impact player per team per draft + IFA class. The Red Sox have done an incredible job up to now, but slotting and the proliferation of knowledgeable prospect reporters mean there will be fewer opportunities for a perreniel winner to acquire cost-controlled Impact talent. Trading two such players like Swihart and Margot, even for a pitcher like Gray, is not a slam-dunk. The 2016 Red Sox should, with modest upgrades to the pitching staff, cruise to a wild card, and it has sufficient young talent that it should continue to get better through the end of the decade. It also, however, has enough uncertainty, due to that youth, that things could go wrong. I believe a more conservative strategy of holding high impact prospects, at least another year makes the most sense for a team with this window and this uncertainty in outcome. If Ben was still the gm I could see him sticking to that plan but Dumbrowski is in charge now. He will make the prospect trades that Ben would of protected. I have no doubt in my mind Dumbrowski will be after both Sale and Gray with an eye to getting one of those players. If he can get price to come here, then even better. Everyone is out of their minds if they think Dumbrowski isn't going to just that and go hard after Gray or Sale, especially if he doesn't get price. I'd lose your cutesy nickname for Dombrowski. May have sounded funny at recess. Won't go over well here. After all, he has traded for Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer. Gave up peanuts for David Price last year. Not so dumb, eh?
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Sept 11, 2015 12:05:13 GMT -5
I don't know if you're being sarcastic or not, but our new GM is anything but dumb. Just look at the accolades attributed to him by other baseball people. And, one of his first moves was directing Lovullo to move Ramirez to 1B. This, after quickly observing his play in the outfield. Little to soon to be attaching unflattering descriptions to his surname. I wasn't being sarcastic. He actually mentioned in his press conference about the tradeable prospects and the really good ones that he likes. I like what he has done with Hanley at 1B and I hope Hanley can work out there. They really need his bat. I'm not sure about Shaw's bat. He has been a great Fenway park hitter this year. I'm all for trading Pablo for a JamesShields though and somehow getting a Craig Kimbrel as a part of that deal. That would give Shaw and Holt playing time at 3B.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Sept 11, 2015 13:45:25 GMT -5
Agreed, although the real surplus is with CF, so that will be interesting to watch. Margot aside, this team has 3 MLB players who could all legitimately be sold as CFs - Bradley, Betts and Castillo. That is a position of wealth more so than catcher. Also, like others here, I wonder if Hanigan isn't a more likely chip to be dealt in the off season. If Swihart is a starter, then all they need is a capable back-up to go every 5th day. And their corner outfielders are a) their backup SS, b) Allen Craig, and c) Bryce Brentz. As I've explained a bunch of times, there's a dearth of corner OF talent these days, so CFers lose very little value moving to a corner. And OF in general is not currently a position of depth at all. They actually need to acquire a RHH 1B / OF for the bench in the offseason, unless Craig is mysteriously resurrected in the next three weeks. Sure but doesn't mean they can't make a move and go out and buy Hayward or Upton, or even assemble a decent platoon. Regardless, with Margot being coveted, you could leave the current MLB OF undisturbed and move Margot, which is easier organizationally than Swihart at this point. You may have to add a player to get the same value, depending on the anticipated return and trading partner, but there's more org strength at CF than there is at catcher was really my sole point.
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Sept 11, 2015 14:37:06 GMT -5
The development of Betts in CF and Xander at SS make Margot, Marrero and Guerra available, and attractive in trade discussions. I would also add Brian Johnson who seems blocked at the ML level by Owens and Rodriguez as well a whomever DD acquires in the offseason. A package can be put together to include these prospects for a desired starter, though including Swihart would increase the return considerably.
If I were DD I'd see what a package w/o Blake can bring.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater43 on Sept 11, 2015 14:48:31 GMT -5
The development of Betts in CF and Xander at SS make Margot, Marrero and Guerra available, and attractive in trade discussions. I would also add Brian Johnson who seems blocked at the ML level by Owens and Rodriguez as well a whomever DD acquires in the offseason. A package can be put together to include these prospects for a desired starter, though including Swihart would increase the return considerably. If I were DD I'd see what a package w/o Blake can bring. The Sox should keep Johnson. He has the best curveball in the organization right next to Espinoza. Plus, he was injured at the end of the year and probably isn't going to bring back much. They need to keep Johnson for depth at starting pitcher and build his innings in aaa. If Owens puts up a couple of quality outings to finish the year then he might be the guy to trade with Guerra, Margot, and Marrero. I also put miley and Kelly in this category too even though they aren't prospects.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 11, 2015 14:54:40 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 11, 2015 15:22:24 GMT -5
Most relevant paragraphs:
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Sept 11, 2015 15:22:46 GMT -5
I think most people that advocate for trading him do so under the premise that at minimum CV's medical's are fine and likely needs to show that he can play before they make that move. At least that's my opinion. You don't move Swihart unless CV shows that he is ready to go. That being said, if for example in the offseason the A's offered Gray for Swihart straight up, or something similar, I'd be hard pressed to say no. Sure, it would be taking a risk that you can at worst get a decent Vazquez back who will barely cost you anything. I don't think that scenario is going to happen, so it's probably a moot point
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 11, 2015 16:10:12 GMT -5
Well, that's the key point from that two paragraphs brianthetaoist quoted above. The medical staff cannot really determine, with any real degree of certainty, whether Vazquez will be ready to take significant reps by the end of Spring Training. Recovery from Tommy John surgery, even for pitchers but apparently especially for catchers, is very much a question of "feel." The key checkpoints (whether or not a guy can throw on a regular basis without soreness/pain-- which is affected by muscle recovery, scar tissue buildup, etc.) are tough to estimate six months ahead of time.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 12, 2015 12:40:56 GMT -5
The Wieters info is extremely relevant regarding Vasquez. Seals the deal to me. We should probably even keep him in the minors or in extended ST for months after the season begins to bring him along slowly. For Wieters it's been 15 months. No reason to think Vasquez will be any faster. Wieters is bigger and stronger, and took 3 more months than Vasquez would get if he started the season with the Sox and Wieters still isn't healthy. To me, this seals the whole Swihart should be traded discussion.
|
|
|
Post by p23w on Sept 12, 2015 17:14:13 GMT -5
If Ben was still the gm I could see him sticking to that plan but Dumbrowski is in charge now. He will make the prospect trades that Ben would of protected. I have no doubt in my mind Dumbrowski will be after both Sale and Gray with an eye to getting one of those players. If he can get price to come here, then even better. Everyone is out of their minds if they think Dumbrowski isn't going to just that and go hard after Gray or Sale, especially if he doesn't get price. I'd lose your cutesy nickname for Dombrowski. May have sounded funny at recess. Won't go over well here. After all, he has traded for Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer. Gave up peanuts for David Price last year. Not so dumb, eh? And we need a bullpen, and Dombrowski has Never built a good one.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 12, 2015 21:09:36 GMT -5
I'd lose your cutesy nickname for Dombrowski. May have sounded funny at recess. Won't go over well here. After all, he has traded for Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer. Gave up peanuts for David Price last year. Not so dumb, eh? And we need a bullpen, and Dombrowski has Never built a good one. Was the 1997 Marlins bullpen a major issue? Certainly didn't stop them from winning the Series.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,020
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 13, 2015 0:46:19 GMT -5
It does seem that whether we should trade Swihart this winter is not that interesting a question after all: it's generally an unnecessary risk, and the odds of a deal that seems irresistible manifesting itself are so low that it doesn't seem worth it to gauge just where people's risk level is.
But I remain really interested in the question of what to do with the catchers long-term, and I'm going to start that poll / thread tonight, I think, or add a poll to this thread.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Sept 13, 2015 8:44:01 GMT -5
I'd lose your cutesy nickname for Dombrowski. May have sounded funny at recess. Won't go over well here. After all, he has traded for Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer. Gave up peanuts for David Price last year. Not so dumb, eh? And we need a bullpen, and Dombrowski has Never built a good one. Even if true baseball has evolved and so do each of us. The bullpens today are viewed as much more important, especially with the advent of power arms, then they were 10 years ago. Dombroski impresses me with his intellect and presence. I'll give you odds that no more than one or two of our current guys are here next year and that our pen is a helluva lot better.
|
|
|
Post by p23w on Sept 13, 2015 8:48:35 GMT -5
And we need a bullpen, and Dombrowski has Never built a good one. Was the 1997 Marlins bullpen a major issue? Certainly didn't stop them from winning the Series. Your'e going back 18 years. The "rookie" got lucky. A seasoned Dombrowski with Time,Talent and Money failed to build a first rate bullpen in 10 years while at Detroit. Yeah, he got to the WS twice but his bullpens cost the team 2 more appearances. The Tigers should have had 4 WS appearances, which should have yielded at least one World Championship. This Red Sox team is already starting to look like thoseTiger teams under Dombrowski. I can only hope that he learns from his mistakes and concentrates on building a knock down bullpen, a-la the Royals and Giants.
|
|
|