SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Offseason 40-man roster/Rule 5 thread
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,945
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2015 22:26:55 GMT -5
3) And this is the point that's easy to forget: it's not whether you would rather have a player on this list or Jerez. It's weighing the chances of Jerez getting selected and sticking versus the chances of a player on this list clearing waivers. For example, it's entirely possible to rather have Jerez than Coyle, but still think the Sox should not protect Jerez and not DFA Coyle if you think it's more likely a team claims Coyle than that a team selects Jerez and he stays up all year. For this reason, I think it may be less likely than you say that Coyle, who still has options, gets DFA'ed, and perhaps a shade more likely that Escobar, who's out of options, does. It's actually more than that, though; you also have to add in the outcome, so that the real criterion is whether we would regret losing the player in the long run. Talking a flyer on Coyle might be an easy choice for a team with 40-man roster holes to fill, so his getting claimed might be more likely than Jerez getting taken in the Rule 5; but the latter might be the scenario that is likelier to be one you wished you could have avoided. My rank order of 40-man candidates is probably as follows (assuming Margot, Hernandez and Light are locks): Craig Leon --------- Cook Ogando [MLBTR projects him to cost $2.4m in arb next year, which is non-trivial money] Mendez Rutledge Coyle Brentz --------- [Jerez] Escobar Machi Varvaro Cecchini Workman That's a better list than mine, which was very off the top of my head (while happens when you watch and score 27.5 baseball games in 16 days, while also seeing 10 movies, only two at home). Your arguments for Rutledge and Varvaro are sound. I think you can debate the order of Coyle and Brentz (thinking every potential claiming team will go against the obvious grain), and of Escobar, Machi, and Varvaro, but otherwise, that strikes me as right. I like the idea of keeping one of Coyle or Brentz until we start adding guys to the roster. Whoever is kept might have a better chance of clearing waivers if they're DFA'd during the FA signing period rather than before the Rule 5.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 23, 2015 10:51:58 GMT -5
3) And this is the point that's easy to forget: it's not whether you would rather have a player on this list or Jerez. It's weighing the chances of Jerez getting selected and sticking versus the chances of a player on this list clearing waivers. For example, it's entirely possible to rather have Jerez than Coyle, but still think the Sox should not protect Jerez and not DFA Coyle if you think it's more likely a team claims Coyle than that a team selects Jerez and he stays up all year. For this reason, I think it may be less likely than you say that Coyle, who still has options, gets DFA'ed, and perhaps a shade more likely that Escobar, who's out of options, does. It's actually more than that, though; you also have to add in the outcome, so that the real criterion is whether we would regret losing the player in the long run. Talking a flyer on Coyle might be an easy choice for a team with 40-man roster holes to fill, so his getting claimed might be more likely than Jerez getting taken in the Rule 5; but the latter might be the scenario that is likelier to be one you wished you could have avoided. I figured that went without saying. If you don't care about losing the player, then yeah, don't protect him/DFA him. I guess my assumption was that beyond Craig/Leon, it'd make sense to try to hold on to as many of those guys as you can, within reason. I like jmei's list too. Good point on Ogando - if you're going to non-tender him eventually anyway, then yeah, why not just DFA him right now? I'm also coming around on Rutledge as a DFA candidate, and will credit Dunne for being on that before me as well so as not to look like it's just jmei's doing.
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Oct 23, 2015 16:10:27 GMT -5
You cant protect everyone but I feel if the Sox lose prospects they money value should be more.
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Oct 28, 2015 4:45:26 GMT -5
I probably missed this, but do we know what happened to Jake Dahlstrand this season? Before the season he was talked about as a potential 40 man add, but he sustained some sort of injury I guess. Too bad, he started the year of very well.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 28, 2015 8:24:07 GMT -5
I probably missed this, but do we know what happened to Jake Dahlstrand this season? Before the season he was talked about as a potential 40 man add, but he sustained some sort of injury I guess. Too bad, he started the year of very well. Tommy John.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Oct 30, 2015 10:06:47 GMT -5
Thanks Chris! At this point Craig is definitely a sunk cost, I just didn't want there to be any way he would hurt our cap figure. Sounds good. Hard to believe a far he has fallen! Hard to believe they put him back on the roster at the end of the year to add additional dollars to the 2015 cap hit too.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 30, 2015 10:26:16 GMT -5
Thanks Chris! At this point Craig is definitely a sunk cost, I just didn't want there to be any way he would hurt our cap figure. Sounds good. Hard to believe a far he has fallen! Hard to believe they put him back on the roster at the end of the year to add additional dollars to the 2015 cap hit too. I think they wound up under the cap anyway (trade of Napoli and getting Craig off 40-man for much of the year helped w/ that). That's why it wasn't a big deal. I could be wrong though.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 30, 2015 11:21:10 GMT -5
Hard to believe they put him back on the roster at the end of the year to add additional dollars to the 2015 cap hit too. I think they wound up under the cap anyway (trade of Napoli and getting Craig off 40-man for much of the year helped w/ that). That's why it wasn't a big deal. I could be wrong though. I think it's more that they knew they couldn't get under the cap. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zPx_cKCQ7TQjab2kPM4zIhEFSDxrTpLLIEZr2xh5E8g/edit#gid=6This guy has been pretty diligent about the salary spread sheets and had them at $6.73 million over.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Oct 30, 2015 23:35:07 GMT -5
I think they wound up under the cap anyway (trade of Napoli and getting Craig off 40-man for much of the year helped w/ that). That's why it wasn't a big deal. I could be wrong though. I think it's more that they knew they couldn't get under the cap. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zPx_cKCQ7TQjab2kPM4zIhEFSDxrTpLLIEZr2xh5E8g/edit#gid=6This guy has been pretty diligent about the salary spread sheets and had them at $6.73 million over. Dead link
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Oct 31, 2015 6:05:43 GMT -5
Link works fine for me.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 2, 2015 9:47:32 GMT -5
For example, the Red Sox are going to need to DFA three players by the conclusion of the World Series. The roster is at 40 and the only two free agents are Breslow and Hill. Meanwhile, five players (Buchholz, Workman, Vazquez, Varvaro, Uehara) need to come off the 60-day DL. One figures that Craig is the super-easy first choice. I think Leon would also be fairly certain (he's cleared once). Beyond that, Varvaro, Machi, Cook, Mendez are probably the next candidates. Then you start looking at guys like Coyle, Cecchini, Brentz, and Rutledge. Reminder that this is coming. Craig, Leon, and mystery player X get DFA in the next day or two, and we're off to the races. Per Bradford, Buchholz's option must be picked up in next three days, but I'd be stunned if that didn't happen.
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Nov 2, 2015 9:56:48 GMT -5
For example, the Red Sox are going to need to DFA three players by the conclusion of the World Series. The roster is at 40 and the only two free agents are Breslow and Hill. Meanwhile, five players (Buchholz, Workman, Vazquez, Varvaro, Uehara) need to come off the 60-day DL. One figures that Craig is the super-easy first choice. I think Leon would also be fairly certain (he's cleared once). Beyond that, Varvaro, Machi, Cook, Mendez are probably the next candidates. Then you start looking at guys like Coyle, Cecchini, Brentz, and Rutledge. Reminder that this is coming. Craig, Leon, and mystery player X get DFA in the next day or two, and we're off to the races. Per Bradford, Buchholz's option must be picked up in next three days, but I'd be stunned if that didn't happen. Is Alexi the X Mystery player?
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 2, 2015 10:17:33 GMT -5
What's the rule for pending free agents being DFAd or released? (in other words - why can't they DFA Breslow)
Thanks - had a brain fart. Forgot the number of 60-day DL guys was 5 and not 3
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Nov 2, 2015 10:21:31 GMT -5
What's the rule for pending free agents being DFAd or released? (in other words - why can't they DFA Breslow) You said it yourself, because he's a free agent.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 2, 2015 10:24:43 GMT -5
What's the rule for pending free agents being DFAd or released? (in other words - why can't they DFA Breslow) You said it yourself, because he's a free agent. To be more explicit, free agents are automatically removed from the 40-man roster. Unfortunately, because of how many players they had on the 60-day DL (and how few free agents they have), the Red Sox will need to clear three additional 40-man spots. Thus, the pending DFA of Craig, Leon, and one additional player.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 2, 2015 11:39:31 GMT -5
Reminder that this is coming. Craig, Leon, and mystery player X get DFA in the next day or two, and we're off to the races. Per Bradford, Buchholz's option must be picked up in next three days, but I'd be stunned if that didn't happen. Is Alexi the X Mystery player? If they're planning on non-tendering him anyway, it might make sense unless they think they might be able to package him in a deal. Otherwise, someone from the Cook/Mendez/Rutledge/Coyle/Brentz crew. My money would be on Cook, but who knows?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2015 13:05:30 GMT -5
Sox announce they've picked up Buchholz's option. Yawn. Let's get on with the interesting stuff, plz.
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Nov 6, 2015 15:03:34 GMT -5
Cook claimed off waivers by the Cubs
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Nov 6, 2015 15:12:20 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson @brianmacp 16s16 seconds ago Red Sox announce removal of Cook, Craig, Machi and Ogando from 40-man. Machi, Ogando become free agents. Craig outrighted to Pawtucket.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 6, 2015 15:19:58 GMT -5
Ryan Cook claimed off waivers by Cubs. Jean Machi and Alexi Ogando outrighted and became free agents. Allen Craig outrighted to Pawtucket. Sandy Leon signed one-year MLB deal, was outrighted, and accepted an assignment to Pawtucket. Clay Buchholz, Koji Uehara, Anthony Varvaro, Brandon Workman, and Christian Vazquez activated from the 60-day DL.
So they've also already cleared 2 of the 3 spots I predict they'll need on 11/20. Probably figure there may be deals done by then, realized there wasn't trade interest in these folks.
The Leon deal is interesting. Probably just paying him $550k to be Triple-A insurance, help ease Vazquez back into catching to start the year and be available if anything happens to Swihart or Hanigan.
Mendez and Varvaro probably the guys I'd say are next up if they need a spot.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Nov 6, 2015 15:32:41 GMT -5
Ryan Cook claimed off waivers by Cubs. Jean Machi and Alexi Ogando outrighted and became free agents. Allen Craig outrighted to Pawtucket. Sandy Leon signed one-year MLB deal, was outrighted, and accepted an assignment to Pawtucket. Clay Buchholz, Koji Uehara, Anthony Varvaro, Brandon Workman, and Christian Vazquez activated from the 60-day DL. So they've also already cleared 2 of the 3 spots I predict they'll need on 11/20. Probably figure there may be deals done by then, realized there wasn't trade interest in these folks. The Leon deal is interesting. Probably just paying him $550k to be Triple-A insurance, help ease Vazquez back into catching to start the year and be available if anything happens to Swihart or Hanigan. Mendez and Varvaro probably the guys I'd say are next up if they need a spot. Or Dombrowski has already traded Swihart in his mind.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,945
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 7, 2015 10:35:48 GMT -5
Ryan Cook claimed off waivers by Cubs. Jean Machi and Alexi Ogando outrighted and became free agents. Allen Craig outrighted to Pawtucket. Sandy Leon signed one-year MLB deal, was outrighted, and accepted an assignment to Pawtucket. Clay Buchholz, Koji Uehara, Anthony Varvaro, Brandon Workman, and Christian Vazquez activated from the 60-day DL. So they've also already cleared 2 of the 3 spots I predict they'll need on 11/20. Probably figure there may be deals done by then, realized there wasn't trade interest in these folks. The Leon deal is interesting. Probably just paying him $550k to be Triple-A insurance, help ease Vazquez back into catching to start the year and be available if anything happens to Swihart or Hanigan. Mendez and Varvaro probably the guys I'd say are next up if they need a spot. They need 1 or 2 more trims, depending on whether they protect Jerez. I buy jmei's argument that Rutledge is more fungible than Varvaro.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Nov 7, 2015 10:56:42 GMT -5
To me, there are five (maybe six) players who could go if the team needed an upgrade: Varvaro, Mendez, Rutledge, Coyle, and Brentz. Possibly Cecchini, though I wouldn't do so. I'd also be hesitant to lose Brentz because I'm a tad worried about the outfield depth and I think he would get claimed.
The more I think about it, I'd absolutely protect Jerez. I've been a pretty strong critic of protecting players who aren't ready in the past, but Jerez has come so far in such a short time that I think he is an exception.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 10, 2015 9:25:28 GMT -5
Only tangentially related, but here's the list of MLFAs (with player-coaches Joe Thurston and Dreily Guerrero removed)
RHP: Dayan Diaz (AAA), Luis Diaz (AA), Shawn Haviland (AAA), Kyle Kaminska (AA), Jean Machi (AAA), Zeke Spruill (AAA), Jess Todd (AAA), Madison Younginer (AAA) C: Luis Martinez (AAA), Humberto Quintero (AAA), Matt Spring (AAA) 3B: Dustin Lawley (AA), Mario Martinez (Hi A), Carlos Rivero (AAA), Oscar Tejeda (AA) OF: Keury de la Cruz (AA), Carlos Peguero (AAA), Jonathan Roof (AAA), Dave Sappelt (AA), Blake Tekotte (AA)
We also had William Cuevas and Carlos Mesa as free agents. Both have apparently been re-signed. I'm sure some folks will be very happy about the former. Younginer, who was a fringe top-60 prospect, has already signed with Atlanta.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 10, 2015 10:20:35 GMT -5
How safe is Escobar's spot? Out of options and he was pretty terrible last year.
|
|
|