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Offseason 40-man roster/Rule 5 thread
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Nov 11, 2015 16:02:52 GMT -5
To me, there are five (maybe six) players who could go if the team needed an upgrade: Varvaro, Mendez, Rutledge, Coyle, and Brentz. Possibly Cecchini, though I wouldn't do so. I'd also be hesitant to lose Brentz because I'm a tad worried about the outfield depth and I think he would get claimed. The more I think about it, I'd absolutely protect Jerez. I've been a pretty strong critic of protecting players who aren't ready in the past, but Jerez has come so far in such a short time that I think he is an exception. agree with those who say Coyle should stay. Cecchini, still not clear if he has a position. going into his final option year Brentz, going into his final option year. Coyle, 3 years younger than Brentz. not going into his final option year.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 11, 2015 18:14:03 GMT -5
To me, there are five (maybe six) players who could go if the team needed an upgrade: Varvaro, Mendez, Rutledge, Coyle, and Brentz. Possibly Cecchini, though I wouldn't do so. I'd also be hesitant to lose Brentz because I'm a tad worried about the outfield depth and I think he would get claimed. The more I think about it, I'd absolutely protect Jerez. I've been a pretty strong critic of protecting players who aren't ready in the past, but Jerez has come so far in such a short time that I think he is an exception. agree with those who say Coyle should stay. Cecchini, still not clear if he has a position. going into his final option year Brentz, going into his final option year. Coyle, 3 years younger than Brentz. not going into his final option year. You're too worried about option years and not worried enough about how much they can help the team. Brentz is flawed but is a useful up-and-down player on a team with some depth concerns for an outfielder. I honestly don't know that Coyle would hit .150 in the majors, and he doesn't fill a need. Coyle's pop has always made it sensible to see if his other skills would develop, but they haven't. I'm actually not sure he would even get claimed on waivers.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 11, 2015 22:06:43 GMT -5
Coyle can go anytime. He K'd something like 30% of PA's in a GCL rehab assignment. The GCL! I don't think he has enough hit tool to play in the big leagues - not right now anyway.
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Post by jmei on Nov 11, 2015 22:40:08 GMT -5
agree with those who say Coyle should stay. Cecchini, still not clear if he has a position. going into his final option year Brentz, going into his final option year. Coyle, 3 years younger than Brentz. not going into his final option year. You're too worried about option years and not worried enough about how much they can help the team. Brentz is flawed but is a useful up-and-down player on a team with some depth concerns for an outfielder. I honestly don't know that Coyle would hit .150 in the majors, and he doesn't fill a need. Coyle's pop has always made it sensible to see if his other skills would develop, but they haven't. I'm actually not sure he would even get claimed on waivers. Eh, this is a little harsh. His 2015 season was a disaster, but if he even improves his strikeout rate a little, he could be a decent Sean Rodriguez-esque bench player. Coyle isn't a one-trick pony-- aside from the power, he also plays an average-to-better 2B, has the tools to pick up 3B and corner outfield, is a good baserunner, and can take a walk.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 12, 2015 9:56:11 GMT -5
It's probably a little harsh, yes. Coyle isn't a bad ballplayer, but his flaws are ones that I believe are fatal ones. His strikeout rate is simply unsustainably high - I think he'd strikeout about 40% of the time in the majors, as he has a swing that would be too easily exploited. 2015 was his second lost season in three years, and his injuries have really limited his development. His one recent good season, 2014, was propped by a .362 BABIP that is way out of sorts with the rest of his career line (though would've been a solid year even losing 30 points from his batting average), and was capped by a stint in the AFL where his strikeouts shot way back up.
I think Coyle's realistic projection given 550 or so PA right now would be somewhere around .180/.280/.350. Given that he's a capable second baseman, that's not by any means useless if you have a problem at that position - there aren't a ton of second basemen who can hit right now. Still, the strikeout rate (and lack of improvement in it) really limits his eventual upside so I really don't see him as a player a team would really take a hit by losing. Like Brentz, or Chris Marrero, or Josh Rutledge, you bring in a player like that when you have a need. Brentz probably doesn't have a ton more upside than Coyle, but he fills a need currently. I'm not saying to DFA Coyle today either, just that his spot on the 40-man is one that they shouldn't hesitate to upgrade. If it came down to, say, protecting Williams Jerez and DFAing Coyle, or exposing Jerez to keep Coyle on the roster, I'd choose the former.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 12, 2015 10:01:18 GMT -5
Bryce Brentz will hit 30 HRs in Oakland this year or next, I've accepted it.
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Post by jmei on Nov 12, 2015 11:13:11 GMT -5
It's probably a little harsh, yes. Coyle isn't a bad ballplayer, but his flaws are ones that I believe are fatal ones. His strikeout rate is simply unsustainably high - I think he'd strikeout about 40% of the time in the majors, as he has a swing that would be too easily exploited. 2015 was his second lost season in three years, and his injuries have really limited his development. His one recent good season, 2014, was propped by a .362 BABIP that is way out of sorts with the rest of his career line (though would've been a solid year even losing 30 points from his batting average), and was capped by a stint in the AFL where his strikeouts shot way back up. I think Coyle's realistic projection given 550 or so PA right now would be somewhere around .180/.280/.350. Given that he's a capable second baseman, that's not by any means useless if you have a problem at that position - there aren't a ton of second basemen who can hit right now. Still, the strikeout rate (and lack of improvement in it) really limits his eventual upside so I really don't see him as a player a team would really take a hit by losing. Like Brentz, or Chris Marrero, or Josh Rutledge, you bring in a player like that when you have a need. Brentz probably doesn't have a ton more upside than Coyle, but he fills a need currently. I'm not saying to DFA Coyle today either, just that his spot on the 40-man is one that they shouldn't hesitate to upgrade. If it came down to, say, protecting Williams Jerez and DFAing Coyle, or exposing Jerez to keep Coyle on the roster, I'd choose the former. I think he has more upside (but also a lower floor and much more risk) than Brentz. If he can put up a major league strikeout rate in the 25-30% range, he's clearly a major leaguer, and maybe even a borderline starter (think Danny Espinoza, Luis Valbuena). You're assuming that Coyle never improves his strikeout rate, which is the most likely scenario but not a certain one. He's still only 23 and injuries have truncated his development (he has less than 600 PAs at AA and AAA), which means he's far less of a finished product than Brentz (three years older and 1388 PAs at AA and higher) or Cecchini (a year older and 1222 PAs at AA and higher). Of course, if he continues to be injured, he's not going to amount to anything, but sometimes injury-prone players just stop getting injured and blossom. Similarly, I don't think it's really fair to compare him to older and more retread-y guys like Chris Marrero or Rutledge-- he just has far more potential than those guys. That said, it's a fair point that he's less useful to the 2016 Red Sox than Brentz and Cecchini. In a vacuum, I think he's up there with Brentz (and maybe Cecchini, depending on how likely you think Garin is to bounce back) in terms of value, but with fringy guys like that on the end of the 40-man, you have to factor in team need, and so maybe he's slightly ahead of those two on the chopping block (and, as I noted on my list, I agree with you that I'd rather protect Jerez than keep Coyle, largely because I think there's a good chance Coyle clear waivers).
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 12, 2015 16:54:16 GMT -5
Potential is that dirty little word we like to throw around. Sure if Coyle becomes a different hitter he can be good. I've never seen it with him. Unless he has some incredible ability to square up the ball and a high contact rate that's hidden by his ridiculous K rate then he's not a useful player nor will he ever be. I've been a GC fan but last year took the wind out of me, I'd still roll with him to see if he can fulfill the promise he's at least shown.
Every year we worry too much about who's protected or lost and it never seems to really matter in the end..
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Post by 0ap0 on Nov 13, 2015 10:32:06 GMT -5
Every year we worry too much about who's protected or lost and it never seems to really matter in the end.. Amen. It's almost like roster sizes were chosen carefully to be about what teams need, plus enough extra to not sweat the edge cases too much.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2015 17:29:37 GMT -5
Every year we worry too much about who's protected or lost and it never seems to really matter in the end.. Amen. It's almost like roster sizes were chosen carefully to be about what teams need, plus enough extra to not sweat the edge cases too much. Well, yes and no. In 2012, the Red Sox designated a number of players for assignment in order to protect others. Useful MLB players David Carpenter and Danny Valencia were among those DFA'ed. Dan Butler and Alex Hassan were among those protected. Useful MLB player Josh Fields was not protected and was selected in Rule 5. I'd much rather have Fields, Carpenter, or Valencia than Butler or Hassan. Now, at the time, we didn't know all that (although I think a number of folks here were advocating for Fields to be protected, and we were pretty much all surprised they added Hassan), but I'm just saying that while there aren't many Johan Santana-level Rule 5 picks anymore, this stuff does matter a bit.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 0:41:19 GMT -5
So, as it stands the roster is at 39, and the rule 5 deadline is coming up friday.
Here is the list of guys who are eligible:
Mario Alcantara, Mike Augliera, Ty Buttrey, David Chester, Carlos Coste, Keith Couch, Jacob Dahlstrand, Jeffry Fernandez, Edwar Garcia, Carlos Garcia, Justin Haley, Kevin Heller, Marco Hernandez, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kaminska, Zach Kapstein, Kyle Kraus, Pat Light, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Brandon Magee, Chris Marrero, Mike McCarthy, Simon Mercedes, Mike Miller, Aneudis Peralta, Randy Perez, Yankory Pimentel, Carlos Pinales, Heri Quevedo, Henry Ramos, Tim Roberson, Dioscar Romero, Jonathan Roof, Dave Sappelt, Robby Scott, David Sopilka, Zeke Spruill, Alixon Suarez, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, Jervis Torrealba, Jose Vinicio, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems
Standouts are obviously Hernandez, Jerez, Pat Light, and then there are some fringe guys like Justin Haley (who is performing well in AFL currently)
Who do you save? Do you swing a trade to open up spots? Or do you DFA some guys off the 40man?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 19, 2015 9:46:24 GMT -5
So, as it stands the roster is at 39, and the rule 5 deadline is coming up friday. Here is the list of guys who are eligible: Mario Alcantara, Mike Augliera, Ty Buttrey, David Chester, Carlos Coste, Keith Couch, Jacob Dahlstrand, Jeffry Fernandez, Edwar Garcia, Carlos Garcia, Justin Haley, Kevin Heller, Marco Hernandez, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kaminska, Zach Kapstein, Kyle Kraus, Pat Light, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Brandon Magee, Chris Marrero, Mike McCarthy, Simon Mercedes, Mike Miller, Aneudis Peralta, Randy Perez, Yankory Pimentel, Carlos Pinales, Heri Quevedo, Henry Ramos, Tim Roberson, Dioscar Romero, Jonathan Roof, Dave Sappelt, Robby Scott, David Sopilka, Zeke Spruill, Alixon Suarez, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, Jervis Torrealba, Jose Vinicio, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems Standouts are obviously Hernandez, Jerez, Pat Light, and then there are some fringe guys like Justin Haley (who is performing well in AFL currently) Who do you save? Do you swing a trade to open up spots? Or do you DFA some guys off the 40man? I'd say the conversation on this topic on the previous pages pretty much sums it up. Hernandez and Light on. Jerez maybe. One or two from the Varvaro/Rutledge/Mendez/Brentz/Coyle/Cecchini group get DFA. Nobody else will get added. Spruill actually shouldn't be on there b/c he's a free agent.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 19, 2015 14:53:28 GMT -5
I guess I see a slight chance of Haley getting added after his bounceback in the AFL. He's someone I had as a borderline possibility heading into 2015. His control was all over the place during the regular season, but if he's put that back together then he's a useful asset. The problem is that you'd need to cut three guys off the current 40-man to get him there.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 19, 2015 15:47:47 GMT -5
I guess I see a slight chance of Haley getting added after his bounceback in the AFL. He's someone I had as a borderline possibility heading into 2015. His control was all over the place during the regular season, but if he's put that back together then he's a useful asset. The problem is that you'd need to cut three guys off the current 40-man to get him there. While I wouldn't add Haley, it's not because of the current 40-man. The bottom of the 40-man is as weak as I can remember. In addition to the players listed by Chris and James, I believe Escobar is out of options and therefore would be a DFA candidate (Layne and Wright are also out of options, but I'd expect both to stick around).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 19, 2015 16:01:44 GMT -5
FYI, we just fixed some mistakes on the list. Below is the correct Rule 5 eligible list for players under contract. Only major changes are additions of Cuevas and Marban, who won't be protected but are in that group where you wonder for half a second if they might get selected.
Mario Alcantara, Mike Augliera, Ty Buttrey, David Chester, Carlos Coste, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Jacob Dahlstrand, Jeffry Fernandez, Edwar Garcia, Carlos Garcia, Justin Haley, Kevin Heller, Marco Hernandez, Williams Jerez, Kyle Kaminska, Zach Kapstein, Kyle Kraus, Pat Light, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Brandon Magee, Jorge Marban, Chris Marrero, Mike McCarthy, Simon Mercedes, Mike Miller, Aneudis Peralta, Randy Perez, Yankory Pimentel, Carlos Pinales, Heri Quevedo, Henry Ramos, Tim Roberson, Dioscar Romero, Robby Scott, David Sopilka, Alixon Suarez, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, Jervis Torrealba, Jose Vinicio, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems, Rob Worth
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 19, 2015 16:23:03 GMT -5
I am relatively inexperienced with Rule 5 stuff, and thanks for correcting the list.
Is there any danger of Haley getting picked? Obviously not a huge prospect, and his 2015 was down, but 2014 at AA his numbers were good. And his Arizona Fall League stint currently is going about as impressively as anyone could hope for.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 19, 2015 16:49:33 GMT -5
I am relatively inexperienced with Rule 5 stuff, and thanks for correcting the list. Is there any danger of Haley getting picked? Obviously not a huge prospect, and his 2015 was down, but 2014 at AA his numbers were good. And his Arizona Fall League stint currently is going about as impressively as anyone could hope for. I don't believe so, and if he is, I think he's the kind of guy the Sox will happily take the money in exchange for, along the lines of Ryan Pressly. I can't say that if I'm the Red Sox, there's anyone on the 40-man I'd rather expose to waivers than expose Haley to Rule 5. He certainly wouldn't be the first guy to get selected off the strength of an AFL showing though. (Pressly was one such example, actually.) He just strikes me as the kind of guy who'd get picked and returned during camp.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 19, 2015 17:24:08 GMT -5
There should be a pool on who selects a Red Sox player. Choice A - Cubs, Choice B - Orioles Choice C - Athletics
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 19, 2015 17:48:51 GMT -5
While I like the choice, haven't the A's got most of our ex-players by some other means though? Who was the last Red Sox player they nabbed via the Rule 5 draft? Well the Cubs haven't picked any Red Sox in Rule 5 either. For reference: www.soxprospects.com/dhrule5.htm(And before anyone says anything, no, that's not a typo on Garcia - Houston picked him in order to trade him to Baltimore)
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Post by heisenberg on Nov 19, 2015 18:07:48 GMT -5
While I like the choice, haven't the A's got most of our ex-players by some other means though? Who was the last Red Sox player they nabbed via the Rule 5 draft? Well the Cubs haven't picked any Red Sox in Rule 5 either. For reference: www.soxprospects.com/dhrule5.htm(And before anyone says anything, no, that's not a typo on Garcia - Houston picked him in order to trade him to Baltimore) I could see the Cubs nabbing one of our guys. Theo seemed to be quite interested in our transaction wire this last season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 19, 2015 18:17:22 GMT -5
Well the Cubs haven't picked any Red Sox in Rule 5 either. For reference: www.soxprospects.com/dhrule5.htm(And before anyone says anything, no, that's not a typo on Garcia - Houston picked him in order to trade him to Baltimore) I could see the Cubs nabbing one of our guys. Theo seemed to be quite interested in our transaction wire this last season. Well, for what it's worth, the majority of the guys becoming eligible for Rule 5 this year were mostly acquired after Epstein left, so it's not like he'd have any personal knowledge of any of them that he wouldn't have with other teams, as opposed to guys like Dent and Britton who they grabbed last offseason (and the two most recent guys they claimed from the Sox were Varvaro and Cook, who weren't homegrown). Obvious exception would be Marco Hernandez, who'll be protected.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 20, 2015 14:13:33 GMT -5
Rob Bradford @bradfo 1m1 minute ago Not a surprise but according to sources former supplemental 1st round pick Pat Light added to Red Sox 40 man roster
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 20, 2015 14:25:44 GMT -5
HOU does not protect intriguing LHP Reymin Guduan (bullpen arm with control issues but throws upper 90s).
EDIT: HOU could lose (or at least have picked from them) a number of players.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 20, 2015 14:35:41 GMT -5
HOU does not protect intriguing LHP Reymin Guduan (bullpen arm with control issues but throws upper 90s). EDIT: HOU could lose (or at least have picked from them) a number of players. you think the Sox go after anyone?
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 20, 2015 15:30:00 GMT -5
Rob Bradford @bradfo 1m1 minute ago Not a surprise but according to sources former supplemental 1st round pick Pat Light added to Red Sox 40 man roster I hope that's not the only guy they protect. When is the deadline?
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