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SoxProspects Rankings Discussion
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Jul 4, 2020 10:23:15 GMT -5
Ockimey not making the 60 man cut and being a MLFA in November essentially wraps up his Red Sox career.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 4, 2020 11:23:26 GMT -5
Yeah, it's hard to project a guy who's been in AAA for two years, hasn't been put on the 40 or selected in Rule 5, nor was added to the 60-man player pool as a future major leaguer of any type.
I hope he gets a cup of coffee at some point, but for now it looks like that might be with another team.
Not making the player pool despite having been in camp when it shut down also hurt Longhi.
Speaking only for myself on these, although I can't imagine Mike or Ian feels much differently.
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Post by Coreno on Jul 4, 2020 12:08:36 GMT -5
Would think Universal DH and expanded rosters would make it easier for Ockimey to carve out a career for himself.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 4, 2020 16:16:21 GMT -5
Ok, so what did Groome do to drop 4 places?
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 4, 2020 17:54:48 GMT -5
Interesting that downs is ranked by mlb at 44 and Casas is ranked 77 yet sox prosp has them reversed in the rankings. I find that I BIG diff. Why are the two of the services so far apart?
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 4, 2020 17:59:23 GMT -5
Groome has shown little in his stay in the organization and Song has limited innings with not much opportunity over the next few years to improve. Why are they rated so high?
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 4, 2020 18:00:58 GMT -5
Ok, so what did Groome do to drop 4 places? Probably due to the lost season. He’s kind of the opposite of Song. Song benefits from the lost season because he was gonna be missing it anyways. Groome, on the other hand, really needed the reps this year. This would be his third lost season in a row (if he’s not added to the player pool). That would be a big detriment to his development.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,976
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Post by cdj on Jul 4, 2020 18:09:26 GMT -5
Interesting that downs is ranked by mlb at 44 and Casas is ranked 77 yet sox prosp has them reversed in the rankings. I find that I BIG diff. Why are the two of the services so far apart? They are 1 spot apart.... I think the argument can be made either way on which guy is the top prospect
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 5, 2020 8:34:24 GMT -5
Ok, so what did Groome do to drop 4 places? As speculated by others, nobody gets hurt worse by not having a season this year than Groome, probably. Groome (unless they tweak rules) will be Rule 5 eligible this offseason with something like 70 professional innings under his belt. That's... not great. It's tough, because just stuff-wise, I'd have him third probably. But he needs to pitch in games and needs to prove that he can stay healthy. The other guy who really dropped because of the not being a season was Fitzgerald. He's going to be 26 entering next season making his Double-A debut. Now, I wouldn't have dropped him quite so much, but one ranker basically took him off his top 60. There will be an... animated discussion of this on the podcast, I predict. Interesting that downs is ranked by mlb at 44 and Casas is ranked 77 yet sox prosp has them reversed in the rankings. I find that I BIG diff. Why are the two of the services so far apart? Another one where the answer has been said, but that's not that big a difference. BA also has Casas higher (Casas 77, Downs 95), while MLB, Law (Downs 70,Casas 90), and both Kiley (50, 57) and Longenhagen (48, 60) had Downs higher. The consensus, if anything, is that they're close, I think. Personally, I think Casas has the higher ceiling and a good chance to get there. Downs is solid to above-average across the board, but I haven't read that there's a plus tool there. It's really a personal preference thing. To me, I think Casas gets penalized too much for being 1B-only. Happened in the draft and I think it happens now on prospect lists. And we were really hoping to get a good look at Downs in camp, but alas, couldn't.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 9, 2020 15:57:30 GMT -5
Isn't it strange that the Sox have one of the weakest farm systems in the league, the 17th pick in the draft, and still don't have a draft pick that cracks their top 10? I know the Sox are high on Yorke and it's been a strange year to say the least, but that's an unlikely outcome for a team in the Sox position. Will be interesting to see if this year's strategy pays off long term. Well, doesn't crack yet is the key. In their mind, he probably is top 10. We need to take all information into account, including his relatively lower esteem outside of the organization, in this ranking, but maybe we see him... whenever and we bump him up 5 spots. I could see that. Could go the other way too. Who knows?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 9, 2020 18:08:26 GMT -5
Oh I get you. Just expounding on the point is all!
That said, nobody available at 17 wouldn't been higher than 8th or so for me. And even that might be high.
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 10, 2020 5:29:01 GMT -5
Ok, so what did Groome do to drop 4 places? As speculated by others, nobody gets hurt worse by not having a season this year than Groome, probably. Groome (unless they tweak rules) will be Rule 5 eligible this offseason with something like 70 professional innings under his belt. That's... not great. It's tough, because just stuff-wise, I'd have him third probably. But he needs to pitch in games and needs to prove that he can stay healthy. The other guy who really dropped because of the not being a season was Fitzgerald. He's going to be 26 entering next season making his Double-A debut. Now, I wouldn't have dropped him quite so much, but one ranker basically took him off his top 60. There will be an... animated discussion of this on the podcast, I predict. Interesting that downs is ranked by mlb at 44 and Casas is ranked 77 yet sox prosp has them reversed in the rankings. I find that I BIG diff. Why are the two of the services so far apart? Another one where the answer has been said, but that's not that big a difference. BA also has Casas higher (Casas 77, Downs 95), while MLB, Law (Downs 70,Casas 90), and both Kiley (50, 57) and Longenhagen (48, 60) had Downs higher. The consensus, if anything, is that they're close, I think. Personally, I think Casas has the higher ceiling and a good chance to get there. Downs is solid to above-average across the board, but I haven't read that there's a plus tool there. It's really a personal preference thing. To me, I think Casas gets penalized too much for being 1B-only. Happened in the draft and I think it happens now on prospect lists. And we were really hoping to get a good look at Downs in camp, but alas, couldn't. So, it comes down to you like Casas better. I guess I pay more attention to MLB rankings than any other service and use them as a checkpoint against soxp. I think you do an excellent job with your eval's of players. And I do not disagree with your rankings. You have seen Casas first hand and like him a lot. I know in the past your rankings are influenced alot by how high of a ceiling you think a player has. I think I am jaded a little towards Downs because I am/ was hoping that we got a star in the trade for Betts. Comparing players who play different positions is always hard. I think I have Downs a LITTLE higher because he has played AA and AAA and performed well. Casas has not played above A so I guess I am am not quite a believer yet. Either/ or looks like we have 2 potential big leaguers.
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 10, 2020 5:38:47 GMT -5
Isn't it strange that the Sox have one of the weakest farm systems in the league, the 17th pick in the draft, and still don't have a draft pick that cracks their top 10? I know the Sox are high on Yorke and it's been a strange year to say the least, but that's an unlikely outcome for a team in the Sox position. Will be interesting to see if this year's strategy pays off long term. Well, doesn't crack yet is the key. In their mind, he probably is top 10. We need to take all information into account, including his relatively lower esteem outside of the organization, in this ranking, but maybe we see him... whenever and we bump him up 5 spots. I could see that. Could go the other way too. Who knows? Here again it seems that you have not seen this guy in person. He was a strange pick in many camps so I get why he is where he is ranked. SS appears at the moment to be a stacked position. with Chatham, Lugo, Cannon and others. Does that count against him? If the pick was a college level catcher would he come in ranked higher? Catcher being a need in the organization.?
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 10, 2020 5:42:40 GMT -5
So, at the end of the season, if there is a season, what do the sox do with Groome if he is eligible for rule 5?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 10, 2020 8:09:24 GMT -5
Here again it seems that you have not seen this guy in person. He was a strange pick in many camps so I get why he is where he is ranked. SS appears at the moment to be a stacked position. with Chatham, Lugo, Cannon and others. Does that count against him? If the pick was a college level catcher would he come in ranked higher? Catcher being a need in the organization.? No, we do not use the number of other players at a given position in the system as a consideration when ranking players. It is a prospect value ranking, not a value to the Boston Red Sox organization ranking. The easiest example of why is probably Betts. These things work themselves out. So, at the end of the season, if there is a season, what do the sox do with Groome if he is eligible for rule 5? Great question. I think they probably have to protect him. Thinking there would be yes, it sucks you need to start using options on him and taking up a 40-man spot, but if he's not going to be MLB-ready in 3 years, then you've probably DFA'd him by then. I could see a team taking him and using him in the bullpen for a year then figuring out whether to try to stretch him out in the minors.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 10, 2020 11:28:07 GMT -5
Isn't it strange that the Sox have one of the weakest farm systems in the league, the 17th pick in the draft, and still don't have a draft pick that cracks their top 10? I know the Sox are high on Yorke and it's been a strange year to say the least, but that's an unlikely outcome for a team in the Sox position. Will be interesting to see if this year's strategy pays off long term. Another thing to consider, and not one that contradicts your original statement, but their strategy resulted in two guys that land just outside of the Top 10 at #11 and #13. Had they selected say PCA in Round 1 and their top talent available at slot in Round 3....you're probably looking at PCA between #5-#8 in our system, and the 3rd rounder (say Xavier Warren drafted 3 picks after Jordan for close to slot) slotting in around #20-#25 range (the Cannon, Bello, Arauz range). So the rankings here kind of reflect the industry interpretation of our strategy to essentially trade the #17 overall and 3rd round pick for two second rounders. Now of course, the Red Sox probably think they drafted 1st and 2nd round talents in their draft, in which case, both Yorke and Jordan could eventually break the top 10. As Chris says though, who knows....we'll have to wait and see.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Aug 29, 2020 9:54:12 GMT -5
We've been internally discussing the September prospect rankings update, which will include adding Connor Seabold to the rankings and some possible updates for Jarren Duran, Jonathan Arauz, and Mike Shawaryn. It seems likely that the club could be bringing some new prospects into the organization leading up to the 8/31 deadline -- we're going to take some time to discuss where to initially rank those prospects, so our monthly rankings update might not happen until next weekend - maybe Friday, September 4.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2020 7:51:37 GMT -5
Small update.
Duran up to 4 from 7. Debuts for Rosario at 11, Seabold at 12, Potts at 15. Arauz "up" from 25 to 25 (which is net +3 given debuts). Shawaryn falls out of the rankings from the 30s. Other two falling out were Yoelvis Guedez and Tyler Esplin.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 2, 2020 7:55:32 GMT -5
LOL, you guys get antsy ? Mike said Sept 4.
This one must have been interesting at least.
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Post by Addam603 on Sept 2, 2020 8:11:25 GMT -5
Pretty interesting that the Sox have added their #11, #12, #13, #15, and #16 prospects within the last couple of months. They’re still a little shallow on high end prospects, but their depth has gotten so much better this season. Chatham started the year as our 10th ranked prospect and now he’s 17. Wong was #12 and now he’s #20. And it’s not like they’ve done anything to warrant that drop. It’s just been an addition of talent in that 10-15 range in front of them. A good start by Bloom.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 2, 2020 8:28:37 GMT -5
I am actually impressed with the development at the top and Duran isn't the only one. Groome, Mata, Casas and Houck are all considerably better than the springtime viewpoint.
I am also thinking we are sleepers in the national rankings, mostly due to a lack of games for verification.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 2, 2020 9:18:37 GMT -5
We have 7 infielders ranked in the top 20 and 4 guys on the team that play middle infield. 7 guys mlb ready or playing, 1 guy close and 3 that are way down in the minors. Seems to me like an opportunity to make some trades. This number does not include XB or Devers. Always fun to see where the new guys fit in. Seems to be a huge improvement since March with Chatham and wong moving down quite a bit.
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Post by Smittyw on Sept 4, 2020 8:28:37 GMT -5
Any thoughts on where Grullon might fit in?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 4, 2020 8:39:33 GMT -5
Being discussed as we speak.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Sept 4, 2020 13:40:24 GMT -5
Grullon checks in at 29
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