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4/19-4/21 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 21, 2016 23:27:18 GMT -5
Yeah he's on everyone's Top 20 like the other guys. He's undervalued. Just look at the player, not his ranking. Outside him playing 1B, why isn't he in that group? He's 22 and might be major league ready, if not he's very close. You just mentioned the main reason.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 21, 2016 23:35:12 GMT -5
He's undervalued. Just look at the player, not his ranking. Outside him playing 1B, why isn't he in that group? He's 22 and might be major league ready, if not he's very close. You just mentioned the main reason. I just think that's a big mistake.
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Post by Don Caballero on Apr 21, 2016 23:37:22 GMT -5
Sam Travis has always been a binkie of mine. I always have thought that his hit tool is very good and I believe his power will come. I think of him as a .300 hitter with 20 HR, 45 double power. I drink the Sam Travis kool-aid, just so you know. That's more than fair, we all have our binkies. The other Travis is one I loved as a prospect (same last name as mine) so I hope you're right about Sam and we have lots of Travis to Travis in the Sox infield in the future. And I didn't mean to knock him by any means, he's a great prospect. The others are just ridiculous.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 21, 2016 23:43:23 GMT -5
You just mentioned the main reason. I just think that's a big mistake. Look at league averages in OPS by position. If he was an average defensive shortstop he'd be up there with Seager. I like Sam a lot but he's not anywhere near as valuable or irreplaceable to a team as the other guys. I view his ceiling as Hosmer with an average glove. That's not a bad thing by any means.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 21, 2016 23:54:46 GMT -5
I just think that's a big mistake. Look at league averages in OPS by position. If he was an average defensive shortstop he'd be up there with Seager. I like Sam a lot but he's not anywhere near as valuable or irreplaceable to a team as the other guys. I view his ceiling as Hosmer with an average glove. That's not a bad thing by any means. Hitting is down at 1B. Hosmer is currently 12th in ops in league for 1B with a .790 ops. Only six 1B have an ops above .850. Like I said if law is right about him being above average at 1B his bat is good enough.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 22, 2016 0:49:18 GMT -5
Look at league averages in OPS by position. If he was an average defensive shortstop he'd be up there with Seager. I like Sam a lot but he's not anywhere near as valuable or irreplaceable to a team as the other guys. I view his ceiling as Hosmer with an average glove. That's not a bad thing by any means. Hitting is down at 1B. Hosmer is currently 12th in ops in league for 1B with a .790 ops. Only six 1B have an ops above .850. Like I said if law is right about him being above average at 1B his bat is good enough. You are using 2 weeks statistics ? You also use the words good enough which I agree with but I wouldn't use 'good enough' to describe the ceilings of the other guys on the list.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 22, 2016 1:23:30 GMT -5
Hitting is down at 1B. Hosmer is currently 12th in ops in league for 1B with a .790 ops. Only six 1B have an ops above .850. Like I said if law is right about him being above average at 1B his bat is good enough. You are using 2 weeks statistics ? You also use the words good enough which I agree with but I wouldn't use 'good enough' to describe the ceilings of the other guys on the list. In 2015 of 1B that were qualified, only 5 had OPS above .850 and only 12 Had OPS above .800. So this year is just like last year. Sure the other guys have higher ceilings, but they are in A ball, not AAA mashing at 22. I want to point out I don't think he should be ranked above those guys, just he's in that group. Elite prospects that I see becoming above average regulars.
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Post by Smittyw on Apr 22, 2016 5:32:08 GMT -5
A trip to David Price's Fangraphs page was successful in calming any fears I had about him after yesterday...I knew he had pitched better than his ERA would suggest, but a very sexy FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and K-BB% reassured me that he is indeed the ace. Hopefully the Boston media and Johnny from Burger King can show some patience and don't start ripping into him as the pitching version of Carl Crawford after four starts.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Apr 22, 2016 5:35:15 GMT -5
congrats to Cuevas from members of his fan club who first saw him pitch in Norwich CT in 2012
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Post by jmei on Apr 22, 2016 8:06:12 GMT -5
You are using 2 weeks statistics ? You also use the words good enough which I agree with but I wouldn't use 'good enough' to describe the ceilings of the other guys on the list. In 2015 of 1B that were qualified, only 5 had OPS above .850 and only 12 Had OPS above .800. So this year is just like last year. Sure the other guys have higher ceilings, but they are in A ball, not AAA mashing at 22. I want to point out I don't think he should be ranked above those guys, just he's in that group. Elite prospects that I see becoming above average regulars. Offense is down at all positions. First base is still by far the best hitting position in the league and has a much higher offensive standard of success. Travis might be an above-average regular. Those other guys might be perennial All-Stars. That's a huge difference. They're not close to being in the same group.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 22, 2016 8:12:49 GMT -5
Peripherals for Price look good. Just watching yesterday it seemed like he was finding too much of the plate rather than painting the corners. It happens. The guy is a stud. Not worried at all about Price.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 22, 2016 8:56:08 GMT -5
Travis might be an above-average regular. Those other guys might be perennial All-Stars. That's a huge difference. They're not close to being in the same group. Might be, yeah. The difference is not quite as huge, I think, if you look at the mean or median projection. Travis is quite close to the majors and unlikely to flame out completely at this point. All depends on what you value...
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Post by mandelbro on Apr 22, 2016 8:56:11 GMT -5
Peripherals for Price look good. Just watching yesterday it seemed like he was finding too much of the plate rather than painting the corners. It happens. The guy is a stud. Not worried at all about Price. Porcello's good start is a lot more encouraging than Price's bad start is discouraging.
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Post by justen on Apr 22, 2016 9:19:09 GMT -5
Anyone else feel like Price just lost his flow after all the starting and stopping challenge nonsense?
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Post by jmei on Apr 22, 2016 9:29:04 GMT -5
Travis might be an above-average regular. Those other guys might be perennial All-Stars. That's a huge difference. They're not close to being in the same group. Might be, yeah. The difference is not quite as huge, I think, if you look at the mean or median projection. Travis is quite close to the majors and unlikely to flame out completely at this point. All depends on what you value... Eh, I'm not so sure about that. Travis needs to hit (in the hit tool sense) to add value, because his defense/baserunning value is limited and his power ceiling is still in question (even this year, he has just a .143 ISO). For a variety of reasons (see Kiley McDaniel's hit tool series here), the hit tool is the hardest one to project from the minors to the majors, so I'm not sure his floor or his median projection is all that higher than Benintendi or Moncada (and maybe even Devers, if Devers sticks at 3B).
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2016 9:37:09 GMT -5
Might be, yeah. The difference is not quite as huge, I think, if you look at the mean or median projection. Travis is quite close to the majors and unlikely to flame out completely at this point. All depends on what you value... Eh, I'm not so sure about that. Travis needs to hit (in the hit tool sense) to add value, because his defense/baserunning value is limited and his power ceiling is still in question (even this year, he has just a .143 ISO). For a variety of reasons (see Kiley McDaniel's hit tool series here), the hit tool is the hardest one to project from the minors to the majors, so I'm not sure his floor or his median projection is all that higher than Benintendi or Moncada (and maybe even Devers, if Devers sticks at 3B). Minor caveat - I don't think his baserunning is limited at all. He looked very fast in spring training and was always taking the extra base. Not that it changes his overall value that much, but he'd be one of the best running 1B I can remember. I also wonder if his athleticism would play in the outfield and give him a little more value.
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Post by jmei on Apr 22, 2016 9:41:42 GMT -5
Being a good baserunner for a 1B doesn't mean he'll be a great baserunner overall. He probably won't add as much baserunning value as Moncada or Benintendi, for instance.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2016 9:44:28 GMT -5
Being a good baserunner for a 1B doesn't mean he'll be a great baserunner overall. He probably won't add as much baserunning value as Moncada or Benintendi, for instance. I had a minor disagreement that he's limited as a baserunner. I didn't say he'd be great.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 22, 2016 10:11:39 GMT -5
The fact that someone seriously proposed trading Moncada for a reliever on these forums just indicates I've not been proselytizing hard enough (God knows I try). Well I realize you believe that you sit at the right hand....and more than God knows . My comment was more out of frustration of the moment. I would not really want to make that trade either. But I believe that a coterie of hard throwing relievers that limit contact is where baseball has evolved. The days where teams had one shut down guy are gone. Teams are emulating the Yankees, Royals et al. Currently we can't 'throw' Koji or Tazawa out game after game...and with starters going less and less long, that will continue to happen without a formidable top to bottom pen. Most games we are going to have to cover at least 3 innings. Kimbrel has a wildness element and we can't trot him out forever either. We need Smith and at least one other big, effective arm. Barnes is not there yet and the rest border on flotsam.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2016 11:08:37 GMT -5
I don't know him personally, but based on his body of work, I think the only guy in the minors who is off-limits is Moncada, with Espinosa and Benintendi being 2 & 2a. Everyone else is currency who may or make it to the bigs with Boston. Even then, Espinosa, as amazing as he is for his age is so young and so much can happen between now and when he reaches MLB, if there is a controllable ace coming back a la Gray or Sale, I could see him going the other way, given how Dombrowski has traded in the past for assets he decided he must have. That's the other part of the pattern - if he sees a guy he wants he will go after him, and in some cases make what may seen by many as a bit (or a good-sized) overpay to get his man.
Of course the man doesn't just give assets away, and everything depends on return - the Mike Trout/Bryce Harper/Clayton Kershaw clause - where in the very rarest of instances, everyone including Mookie and Xander, may be on the table.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Apr 22, 2016 11:22:41 GMT -5
Derelict Dave doesn't have "off-limits" prospects. They're all suspects. He traded Randy Johnson for Mark Langston, for cripe's sake.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 22, 2016 12:49:22 GMT -5
Spent yesterday morning driving to the next town South of here, about 45 miles, so I had a bit of time to listen to the game. The Sox were ahead when I took off, and still up 5-1 when I stepped out of the car to walk into a business meeting. Not so when I got back. Cuevas was pitching at that point but they were getting ready to take him out. Interesting to find out he'd been in for two innings already. They were bringing in Ramirez who'd pitched the night before. That didn't seem like the best choice with Hembree on board and the game on the line, and it turned out not to be.
I figured it must have been a wild affair what with the score at 8-8. One of those days at Fenway. Price looked as if he had trouble locating his pitches down before I left town. That must have continued since they yanked him in the fourth. Tough stuff.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 22, 2016 14:01:05 GMT -5
Might be, yeah. The difference is not quite as huge, I think, if you look at the mean or median projection. Travis is quite close to the majors and unlikely to flame out completely at this point. All depends on what you value... Eh, I'm not so sure about that. Travis needs to hit (in the hit tool sense) to add value, because his defense/baserunning value is limited and his power ceiling is still in question (even this year, he has just a .143 ISO). For a variety of reasons (see Kiley McDaniel's hit tool series here), the hit tool is the hardest one to project from the minors to the majors, so I'm not sure his floor or his median projection is all that higher than Benintendi or Moncada (and maybe even Devers, if Devers sticks at 3B). Where do you get no value from D and baserunnning? Per Keith Law he's a good defensive 1B that can flat-out hit. Law see's him as a .280 hitter, 10-15 HR and a slew of doubles. He's also athletic which should make him above average on the bases for a 1B. I've seen him compared to Brandon Belt and Eric Hosmer, guys that ranked 7th and 10th last year in bwar for 1B with 3.9 war and 3.6 war. If you wanted to say he's not in Benintendi and Moncada's group, I could agree with that. I see them having high floors and very high ceilings at this point. Things change for me though when you include Devers. Now I agree his ceiling is higher, but I see his floor as a lot lower then Travis. He's yet to show his plus HR power that everyone expects him to have and we don't know if he can stick at 3B.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 22, 2016 14:12:50 GMT -5
The fact that someone seriously proposed trading Moncada for a reliever on these forums just indicates I've not been proselytizing hard enough (God knows I try). Well I realize you believe that you sit at the right hand....and more than God knows . My comment was more out of frustration of the moment. I would not really want to make that trade either. But I believe that a coterie of hard throwing relievers that limit contact is where baseball has evolved. The days where teams had one shut down guy are gone. Teams are emulating the Yankees, Royals et al. Currently we can't 'throw' Koji or Tazawa out game after game...and with starters going less and less long, that will continue to happen without a formidable top to bottom pen. Most games we are going to have to cover at least 3 innings. Kimbrel has a wildness element and we can't trot him out forever either. We need Smith and at least one other big, effective arm. Barnes is not there yet and the rest border on flotsam. A lot of the young guys have been doing well when they are used correctly. Farrell is killing the bullpen more then the pitchers not pitching well. When Smith gets back we have more than enough talent and pitchers. Example a rookie making his major league debut, pitches 2 solid innings and yet you feel the need to bring him back out for another inning? As another poster pointed out, you bring in Ramirez after pitching the night before when you could have used Barnes? Why not a fully rested Hembree? You used Taz the night before with a 4 run lead, which lead to him not being available for that game, when you really needed him.
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Post by jmei on Apr 22, 2016 14:48:10 GMT -5
Eh, I'm not so sure about that. Travis needs to hit (in the hit tool sense) to add value, because his defense/baserunning value is limited and his power ceiling is still in question (even this year, he has just a .143 ISO). For a variety of reasons (see Kiley McDaniel's hit tool series here), the hit tool is the hardest one to project from the minors to the majors, so I'm not sure his floor or his median projection is all that higher than Benintendi or Moncada (and maybe even Devers, if Devers sticks at 3B). Where do you get no value from D and baserunnning? Per Keith Law he's a good defensive 1B that can flat-out hit. Law see's him as a .280 hitter, 10-15 HR and a slew of doubles. He's also athletic which should make him above average on the bases for a 1B. I've seen him compared to Brandon Belt and Eric Hosmer, guys that ranked 7th and 10th last year in bwar for 1B with 3.9 war and 3.6 war. If you wanted to say he's not in Benintendi and Moncada's group, I could agree with that. I see them having high floors and very high ceilings at this point. Things change for me though when you include Devers. Now I agree his ceiling is higher, but I see his floor as a lot lower then Travis. He's yet to show his plus HR power that everyone expects him to have and we don't know if he can stick at 3B. A good defensive 1B is still a below-average defender overall (in other words, a good defensive 1B is still lower on the defensive spectrum than an average or even below-average CF or 2B), and there is disagreement over how good Travis' 1B defense is (Speier mentioned his defensive inconsistency on a recent newsletter, and there are recent scouting reports calling him average or below-average defensively (see here or here)). The same is true for baserunning-- above-average for a 1B is still averagish overall.
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