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4/22-4/24 Red Sox @ Astros Series Thread
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 25, 2016 8:12:29 GMT -5
There was a perfect time to use Layne on Wednesday against Conger and Farrell forgot he was on the team again. He just doesn't use him for some reason.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 25, 2016 8:19:07 GMT -5
And he'll still be a reliever. And there's no reality where you give up that package of prospects for a reliever. It's happened several times, so I'm gonna go with their is a reality where that exists. When does it ever work out well?
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Post by mandelbro on Apr 25, 2016 8:43:20 GMT -5
As someone who thought during the preseason that this is a .500 team, I continue to be more impressed by the positives than discouraged by the negatives. Good stuff from Hembree. 90 wins looks more achievable this season than ever to me. Regarding Henry Owens, he is what he is. A nasty changeup pitcher who doesn't have their fastball figured out. That's no way to make it in the big leagues. He's a kid still, and like most pitchers he needs to figure his stuff out. Hell, most baseball players need time to mature. I find all of the "WE SHOULD HAVE SOLD HIGH WHILE WE HAD THE CHANCE!" stuff silly. First of all, we don't have a crystal ball, so we could have ended up trading away a mid-rotation starter. Second, who's to say that there was much to be had? I think people just overrate prospects, and then get outraged when their expectations aren't met. Owens' warts (lack of control and velocity) have been there for all to see for a while. Henry Owens is on track to be an MLB pitcher at some point. In other words, what anyone could have ever reasonably expected him to be. The only way to be more than mildly disappointed by that is if you actually thought he was a young Cole Hamels. In which case the problem is moreso your expectations than Henry's progress.
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Post by mandelbro on Apr 25, 2016 8:49:00 GMT -5
Hell, is there a better example of how unpredictable baseball careers can be than Colby Rasmus? He's been one of the most promising young players in baseball, infuriating, and recently, Mark McGwire with longer hair.
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Post by jrffam05 on Apr 25, 2016 9:02:08 GMT -5
Hembree now leads Red Sox pitchers in fWAR. Second to Wright in bWAR.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Apr 25, 2016 9:20:36 GMT -5
Hembree now leads Red Sox pitchers in fWAR. Second to Wright in bWAR. I thought he looked great. Showed good poise. Worked slow, but you can tell every pitch meant something, which it did. Even the pitches down the middle, they couldn't square up. He should find an apartment near Fenway.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 25, 2016 9:37:56 GMT -5
... Regarding Henry Owens, he is what he is. ... Anyone who thinks that Owens is, at 23, what he will be is fooling themselves badly. Add: Embree hit 95 in that last inning. That's about as hard as he's ever thrown. I'm sure he was gassed after 3 innings, but navel-gazing his velocity is silly. The team does have to be careful going forward not to abuse him. That may be more difficult now that he's shown his worth, but that's exactly why they should.
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Post by mandelbro on Apr 25, 2016 10:03:56 GMT -5
Anyone who thinks that Owens is, at 23, what he will be is fooling themselves badly. Isn't that exactly what I just said?
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Post by okin15 on Apr 25, 2016 10:22:22 GMT -5
Anyone who thinks that Owens is, at 23, what he will be is fooling themselves badly. Isn't that exactly what I just said? Haha, no. Have you been mis-reading Belichick for 12 years? "is what it is" means "we can't change it so let's not discuss it". Owens is still growing. That said, I'm not sure I agree with Norm's sentiment completely. Sure there is still development, but Owens is perhaps more likely than not to fail as a MLB starter due to an underwhelming fastball, but there's certainly plenty of chance he succeeds. He has three options remaining, which would take him through his age 25 season, so plenty of opportunity to go up and down. These tastes of the MLB are good for him as well, as he can be reminded how tough it is, and what he really needs to work on in AAA.
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Post by cologneredsox on Apr 25, 2016 11:03:24 GMT -5
I can't really believe Owens is written off after one game again already. Nevermind he pitched well in AAA. Nevermind he has shown that there are days when he can control his fastball. Nevermind he is still only freaking 23 years old...
But then again: It's nothing new. If you'd count the players claimed as written off, washed up, to old, etc. here, you might be able to fill an all-star team.
Patience guys, patience please.
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Post by mandelbro on Apr 25, 2016 11:09:36 GMT -5
I can't really believe Owens is written off after one game again already. Nevermind he pitched well in AAA. Nevermind he has shown that there are days when he can control his fastball. Nevermind he is still only freaking 23 years old... But then again: It's nothing new. If you'd count the players claimed as written off, washed up, to old, etc. here, you might be able to fill an all-star team. Patience guys, patience please. Yeah, where were most MLB pitchers at 23 years old? Someone mentioned Mike Fiers. He's a starting pitcher and he was in high A.
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Post by jmei on Apr 25, 2016 11:20:52 GMT -5
You have to understand-- it's just aesthetically frustrating to watch pitchers who can't throw strikes. That feeling of helplessness that we as fans get when we watch guys like that is the worst-- there are always guys on base, the pitcher is always behind in the count, and every pitch feels like it could be the one that blows the game open. It's compounded by how slow those games go (every at-bat goes deep because opposing hitters know to take lots of pitches, those pitchers inevitably take forever between each pitch, there are lots of visits to the mound, etc). Even when Matsuzaka was putting up good ERAs, his games were tough to watch for the same reason.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 25, 2016 11:26:32 GMT -5
Anyone who thinks that Owens is, at 23, what he will be is fooling themselves badly. Isn't that exactly what I just said? I got what you were saying, and yeah, to me the gist is pretty much the same. And, I agree with it. Young pitchers often struggle, often for years. Nature of the game.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 25, 2016 11:27:51 GMT -5
You have to understand-- it's just aesthetically frustrating to watch pitchers who can't throw strikes. That feeling of helplessness that we as fans get when we watch guys like that is the worst-- there are always guys on base, the pitcher is always behind in the count, and every pitch feels like it could be the one that blows the game open. It's compounded by how slow those games go (every at-bat goes deep because opposing hitters know to take lots of pitches, those pitchers inevitably take forever between each pitch, there are lots of visits to the mound, etc). Even when Matsuzaka was putting up good ERAs, his games were tough to watch for the same reason. Great point. I think this has a dramatic effect on perception of potential.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 25, 2016 11:28:40 GMT -5
Owens is at a point in his development where he probably needs major league reps. While I wouldn't say he has conquered Triple-A, his advanced feel for sequencing and his plus off-speed stuff are going to ensure he's one of the better pitchers in that circuit and generally ahead of the hitters there. It's good for Owens to see a team like the Astros, filled with right-handers who will abuse a missed fastball and can lay off everything else until late in the count, because he's just not going to see so many hitters who match up so well with his weaknesses in Pawtucket. With that in mind, when you commit to giving a young pitcher reps, you have to take those lumps.
Developing pitchers is hard.
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Post by ray88h66 on Apr 25, 2016 11:31:15 GMT -5
You have to understand-- it's just aesthetically frustrating to watch pitchers who can't throw strikes. That feeling of helplessness that we as fans get when we watch guys like that is the worst-- there are always guys on base, the pitcher is always behind in the count, and every pitch feels like it could be the one that blows the game open. It's compounded by how slow those games go (every at-bat goes deep because opposing hitters know to take lots of pitches, those pitchers inevitably take forever between each pitch, there are lots of visits to the mound, etc). Even when Matsuzaka was putting up good ERAs, his games were tough to watch for the same reason. Exactly. I'm not giving up on Owens, but as a fan that game was not entertaining even though they won. The change up is great. If he can't command the fastball, hitters will sit on it and it's just a slightly better than bp fastball. And another 4 hour game. I pass.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 25, 2016 11:32:45 GMT -5
This "board" was already pissed the day the Kimbrel trade happened. Yeah pretty much. I remember when the thought of a Henry Owens trade would caused a riot in the Sox Prospects community. Now he wouldn't even be the centerpiece in a trade for a #2. Remember Cecchini? He was untradeable too lol Remember Betts, Bogaerts, and Vazquez? Come on, that's just reduction to absurdity. Regardless, it's pretty clear that a large proportion (myself included) of those upset with the trade weren't upset with trading prospects, but rather with the nature of the return (a closer rather than, say, a #2 starter).
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 25, 2016 12:10:04 GMT -5
Hembree now leads Red Sox pitchers in fWAR. Second to Wright in bWAR. Among 178 qualified relievers at FG (minimum appears to be 5.1 IP), Hembree is 2nd in WPA adjusted for LI, per appearance. And the only guy ahead of him, the Angels' Cory Rasmus, has a 6.10 ERA and 6.93 xFIP -- he's been hit hard in 4 garbage time appearances and great in one tie game. Other ranks: 60 Ross 61 Tazawa 90 Uehara 140 Kimbrel (25th among closers) 144 Barnes 163 Ramirez Weighting that stat and xFIP equally, and using SD above or below average, you get: 1. Andrew Miller 2. Antonio Bastardo 3. Heath Hembree 4. Dellin Bettances 5. Justin Wilson 53. Tazawa 66. Ross 108. Uehara 116. Kimbrel 135. Barnes 168. Ramirez The Kimbrel we traded for, plus Uehara (who is of course much better than these numbers), Smith, Tazawa, Ross, Hembree, and Layne is a hell of a bullpen. When and if everyone is healthy, they'll figure out what to do with Kelly.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Apr 25, 2016 12:25:42 GMT -5
As great as he's been, I hope Hembree doesn't pitch before returning home to Boston. He's being stretched more than ever in his time up this year. Have to be careful.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 25, 2016 12:50:56 GMT -5
Owens is at a point in his development where he probably needs major league reps. While I wouldn't say he has conquered Triple-A, his advanced feel for sequencing and his plus off-speed stuff are going to ensure he's one of the better pitchers in that circuit and generally ahead of the hitters there. It's good for Owens to see a team like the Astros, filled with right-handers who will abuse a missed fastball and can lay off everything else until late in the count, because he's just not going to see so many hitters who match up so well with his weaknesses in Pawtucket. With that in mind, when you commit to giving a young pitcher reps, you have to take those lumps. Developing pitchers is hard. Yeah, Owens is tricky. Unlike others here, I think his stuff looks like it easily plays in the majors. His FB runs around 89-92 with deception, his change is elite, and his curve/slider combo works as a third option. Hitters don't look really comfortable against him ... his stuff plays. An elite change goes a long way, and his fastball can be at least average, if he can command it at all. You can't give up on Owens because you aren't going to get all that much for him, imo, because of the uncertainty. But if he harnesses his stuff, he's a really good major league starter, a guy who will eat innings and occasionally put it together and be untouchable. So, you do what they are doing ... give him starts in the major leagues as the primary depth option, give him more time in AAA to tighten up the command as much as possible, and hope it all comes together before his options run out.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 25, 2016 13:10:53 GMT -5
I think Owens will be one of those guys who might finally harness it when he's 26 or 27 and you have to live with the growing pains for awhile, but it can't be discounted that he may never harness his stuff.
Meanwhile it's almost kind of amazing that the team is 9-9 considering that Price and Kimbrel, two guys you'd expect to pitch lights out, have been very disappointing.
April is one of those weird months usually where a lot of fluky stuff happens. I'd like to think when all is said and done, Price will throw 225 innings with an ERA around 3 or so and his usual fantastic K/BB ratio while Kimbrel will get back to being a 2ish ERA guy striking out 13.5 batters/9 IP.
I'd like to think we'll even get some quality out of Buchholz before his annual injury. The return of Rodriguez and Smith in addition to three talented pitchers getting their performances to near where it should be would do quite a lot for this team.
So while I find these guys aggravating to watch, I still think there are better days ahead this season. A rotation of Price, Buchholz, E-Rod, Porcello, and Wright can still work and a pen headed by Kimbrel and consisting of Uehara, Tazawa, Smith, Hembree, Ross, and Layne (if the manager knew how to use him) could work well, too.
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Post by jmei on Apr 25, 2016 13:22:34 GMT -5
I similarly think the concerns about Owens' "stuff" are overblown. His fastball velo is below-average, but it had the second-most horizontal movement of any four-seam fastball in the league last year (among the 174 starting pitchers with 60+ IP), and it plays up due to deception and because hitters have to respect his changeup. The stuff is more than sufficient to be an above-average major league starter, even without pinpoint command. But if he's to be a rotation staple, he does need to make continued strides with his control and command, because what we saw last night isn't going to cut it.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 25, 2016 13:23:36 GMT -5
I only caught one Hembree appearance and didn't pay attention to this, but how is he pitching lefties? Has his fastball improved that much that he can get by with it vs. LHB? He typically only throws 4 seamers and sliders.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Apr 25, 2016 13:35:46 GMT -5
Re: Owens I think Brian Johnson should be the primary depth option not Owens and as soon as he's 100%, I think that's what they'll do. I also disagree with the posters here who think that he'll harness his fastball command only if he faces ML hitters, it's not like he's posting a 1.79 BB/9 in AAA that jumps to 4 something when he faces major league hitters. Let him work on his command with Pawtucket and when he trims that down to at least his numbers in 2014, call him up. Till he does that, the 6th starter job should go to BJ.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,416
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Post by radiohix on Apr 25, 2016 13:38:47 GMT -5
I only caught one Hembree appearance and didn't pay attention to this, but how is he pitching lefties? Has his fastball improved that much that he can get by with it vs. LHB? He typically only throws 4 seamers and sliders. He added a CB (a pitch he used to throw in HS) that he throws to LHB. There's an article about that I'll look if I can find it and post it here. ADD: Here
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