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2016 Boston Celtics Offseason Thread
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Post by cto94 on Jul 12, 2016 13:43:10 GMT -5
Crowder, Marcus Smart and the 2017 Nets first for Draymond Green. Green just got arrested for assault and Steph Curry and Durant are free agents next year with a salary cap 5 million dollars lower than we initially though it'd be. I'd rather keep the likely high lottery pick in a stacked draft, the guy that projection systems think is going to take a huge leap and is probably undervalued because he had an awful year shooting the ball, and the guy signed for $7m a year for another 4 years in this cap environment than a dude that can't stop kicking people in the balls and probably wouldn't be quite as outstanding outside of Golden State. He's probably helped more than anyone else on that roster by the caliber of players around him, not to say that he's not a great talent, but he's not seeing hundreds of wide open 3's in our offense. I also am pretty sure that Golden State is not about to deal one of their core on and off court presences immediately after back to back finals appearances, one title and a 73 win season |
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,851
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 12, 2016 13:51:25 GMT -5
Crowder, Marcus Smart and the 2017 Nets first for Draymond Green. Green just got arrested for assault and Steph Curry and Durant are free agents next year with a salary cap 5 million dollars lower than we initially though it'd be. The same reason you want to buy low on Draymond is the same reason the Warriors won't sell him when his value's lowest. And if they're willing to, well, that's a major red flag... |
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Post by jmei on Jul 12, 2016 14:18:17 GMT -5
You guys have a much higher outlook on who Griffin is as a player than I do. If they do get him, I hope you are right. He's a supposed star who can't get out of the second round with Chris Paul at his side and his playoff numbers are not up to par. That concerns me. Tells me when a team gets into a series where they truly game plan he's much easier to eliminate from being what he's supposed to be because he limited. Put him on a team with spacing issues as is then see what happens. Anyways, wcp is right it's not worth me getting bent out of shape over something that hasn't happened. He's got a career 21.6 PER in the playoffs, averaging 21 pts/9 rbs/4 asts per game on 50% shooting. Whatever's wrong with the Clippers in the playoffs, it sure doesn't look like Blake Griffin is the cause. |
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Post by philarhody on Jul 12, 2016 16:52:49 GMT -5
Crowder, Marcus Smart and the 2017 Nets first for Draymond Green. Green just got arrested for assault and Steph Curry and Durant are free agents next year with a salary cap 5 million dollars lower than we initially though it'd be. The same reason you want to buy low on Draymond is the same reason the Warriors won't sell him when his value's lowest. And if they're willing to, well, that's a major red flag... Draymond's value isn't very low. He was by far the Warrior's best player in the finals. I dont think the warriors are selling low on Draymond as much as needing to sell someone. |
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jul 12, 2016 17:28:04 GMT -5
Celtics and Mavericks on ESPN2 tonight
Jaylen Brown posterized a big 7 footer, should've drawn a foul too. Monster dunk.
ADD: Brown absolutely attacking the basket 7-9 from the line already half way through the 2nd Quarter
ADD: Brown and Rozier combined to get to the line for 35 attempts
Brown finished with 20pts 10reb 2ast 4stl 4-11FG 12-17FT
Rozier 26pts 6reb 2ast
5-9FG 14-18FT
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 12, 2016 19:27:44 GMT -5
You guys have a much higher outlook on who Griffin is as a player than I do. If they do get him, I hope you are right. He's a supposed star who can't get out of the second round with Chris Paul at his side and his playoff numbers are not up to par. That concerns me. Tells me when a team gets into a series where they truly game plan he's much easier to eliminate from being what he's supposed to be because he limited. Put him on a team with spacing issues as is then see what happens. Anyways, wcp is right it's not worth me getting bent out of shape over something that hasn't happened. He's got a career 21.6 PER in the playoffs, averaging 21 pts/9 rbs/4 asts per game on 50% shooting. Whatever's wrong with the Clippers in the playoffs, it sure doesn't look like Blake Griffin is the cause. Take a look at his numbers sans 2014-2015... He had two great series that year that skew his other numbers. basketball.realgm.com/player/Blake-Griffin/Summary/1596Small sample sizes sure but that's all we got. |
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Post by jmei on Jul 12, 2016 19:44:56 GMT -5
There is really no reason to arbitrarily exclude that season's worth of data.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 12, 2016 20:34:20 GMT -5
No one is throwing it out just looking at all the numbers not just one number and when I see one outlier season I'm going to take notice. And when the other 4 seasons of data are 19pts 7 rebounds and 48% from the field it's a concern is all. The 2014-15 season is well outside the other 4. Now it's not sky is falling as he clearly had shown the ability to put up good numbers. But not really those rebounding numbers.
Now keep in mind no one is saying this guys sucks or isn't good etc. He's good but I don't think he's great nor do I think he's a good fit. In a salary cap world "better than what we have" isn't a good enough reason to spend that much money in my opinion with where the Celtics currently sit.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,851
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 12, 2016 20:47:10 GMT -5
He's a top 20 player who's just now entering his prime. There might be better ways to spend the money, but you can count the realistic ones on one hand.
And again, I'm in favor of the Celtics NOT making this move and rolling with what they have for the time being. But I think you're zeroing in on Griffin's weak spots right now and completely brushing aside his strengths.
In other news, Jaylen Brown absolutely lit it up tonight, and Rozier continued to shine. Obviously SL isn't a huge deal, but there seems to be plenty of talent coming in this season in addition to Horford.
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Post by jmei on Jul 12, 2016 21:02:02 GMT -5
If, even after cherry-picking away his best season, the biggest indictment of a guy is that he's 19/7, 48% from the field in a limited sample in the playoffs, he's a really good player.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2016 7:02:11 GMT -5
If, even after cherry-picking away his best season, the biggest indictment of a guy is that he's 19/7, 48% from the field in a limited sample in the playoffs, he's a really good player. I agree he's good and have said as much so let's not pretend otherwise. I disagree with the impact others think he will have but it's been beaten to death for something that hasn't and likely won't happen so I promise not to respond again unless it does. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2016 7:05:54 GMT -5
Jaylen Brown had a good game statistically but I didn't watch it. How was it for those watching? A Mavs writer said he wasn't impressed as he got to the line mostly off of a 6 foot tall guy who might not make the roster . The other statistical thing that jumps out at me is Rozier got to the line more than him. Having two guys at the line that much may say more about the Mavs than the two guys....
Rozier's shot looks smooth this year in the highlights I've seen. If he can get his 3pt % up to 36%+ that would be huge for him.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2016 7:07:28 GMT -5
Let's pretend that no more moves are made. What do you guys think the final 15 man roster is and what's the rotation look like? For the sake of this exercise you can choose to include Zeller if you think he will return.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2016 7:18:00 GMT -5
Roster:
Backcourt (5):
Thomas
Bradley
Smart
Rozier
Jackson (D league)
Wings(4):
Crowder
Brown
Hunter
Young
Front court(6):
Horford
Johnson
Olynik
Jerebko
Mickey
Bentil (D league)
Starters:
4 locks to start:
Thomas
Bradley
Crowder
Horford
Then I think I would be:
Smart - if they want small ball
Johnson - if they want more traditional and D
Olynik - if they want more shooting
Rest or rotation:
Rozier, Mickey and Young
I could see a solid second unit being:
Rozier
Smart
Young
KO
Mickey
I'm probably wrong about Young but his summer league play was improved and they need to build his confidence. I think his upside is exactly what this team needs long term so they should give him minutes and let him play thru mistakes. Seems to have turned his work ethic around so I'd reward that if true.
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,851
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 13, 2016 7:21:56 GMT -5
Jaylen Brown had a good game statistically but I didn't watch it. How was it for those watching? A Mavs writer said he wasn't impressed as he got to the line mostly off of a 6 foot tall guy who might not make the roster . The other statistical thing that jumps out at me is Rozier got to the line more than him. Having two guys at the line that much may say more about the Mavs than the two guys.... Rozier's shot looks smooth this year in the highlights I've seen. If he can get his 3pt % up to 36%+ that would be huge for him. I admittedly wasn't happy with the Brown pick, but he looked terrific last night. Anyone who argues otherwise can't be taken seriously. Obviously the first thing that jumps out about him is his athleticism, but a close second is that he's a really good basketball athlete. What I mean by that is he has the lateral quickness to pair with his leaping ability, which makes him difficult to keep out of the paint. The fact that he was able to get to the line so often against smaller guys could be spun into a positive; most traditional NBA SFs struggle on the wing in college at times because the smaller guys are able to stay low and in front of them. But with Brown, it's never been an issue. He also looked great at the glass and showed some ability to start a fast break on his own. |
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Post by texs31 on Jul 13, 2016 7:23:29 GMT -5
As of right now, I wouldn't want Zeller (not that I don't think he could help, but I'd rather have others on the team).
Starters (5) - Thomas, Bradley, Horford, Johnson, Crowder
Rotation (4) - Rozier, Smart, Olynyk, Mickey
Bench/DLeague (4) - Jerebko, Brown, Hunter, Young, Bentil, Jackson
Of course, the easy way to get Jerebko off the bench is to list 5 backups but Boston tends to go with a rotation of 9. He could also take over for Mickey but I really think the C's want to start working him in. As a #3 pick, you'd hope Brown can figure into the mix but he's so raw right now, I'd imagine it will take a thinning of the roster (or a bigger leap forward than many envision in year 1) for him to be part of the regular rotation.
The other (minor) problem with this roster is that it is packed full. Danny, IIRC, has typically liked to keep a roster spot open. In this case, however, all 15 have reasons to be included (and that doesn't even address Zeller who could have a role similar to what he did last year).
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 13, 2016 8:07:41 GMT -5
To start the year I think they will use a 10 man rotation, but i think it is important for them to tighten it up. That may happen naturally with injuries or under performance, but I think it would be a mistake to stick with it past mid-December.
Rotation (minutes):
Smalls: Thomas (32), Bradley (30), Smart (28), Rozier (18)
Wings: Crowder (30), Brown (14)
Bigs: Horford (30), Johnson (22), Olynyk (22), Jerebko (14)
That means you have about 34 minutes per game with a traditional lineup of 2 smalls, a wing, and 2 bigs. You have about 10 minutes per game with 3 smalls, a wing, and 1 big. And you have about 4 minutes per game with 3 smalls and 2 bigs. In the later two scenarios you'll most likely see Smart playing the "3", where he can hold his own defensively. I would be surprised if Brown wasn't in the rotation to start. He likely is a relative non-factor on offense to start, but he plays enough defense and can rebound well enough to be an asset on the second unit.
After that you have:
Mickey: Next big up. Horford and Johnson have both had some injuries, so Mickey will have his chance to earn minutes as the year goes on.
Hunter: Shooter off the bench. He'll play spot minutes in the final minute of quarters, but I think he's a long way from regular minutes. He just doesn't do a lot well outside of shooting and I think the team would tighten the rotation before giving him big minutes.
Young: I really want Young to figure it out, because he could be a great shooter, but he looks completely lost out there even in summer league.
Jackson: D-League mostly, but he could find a niche if Thomas got hurt.
Bentil: D-League.
X-Factors: Abdel Nader has looked surprisingly good in Summer League. I could see him sneaking into the final roster spot over Bentil. I also have been impressed with Yabusele in summer league. His numbers haven't popped, but he is really advanced for his age. He plays within the flow of the offense and keeps the ball moving. That doesn't translate well in summer league, but it does when the real games start. I still lean towards him going overseas for another year, but he has a shot to make the team.
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Post by texs31 on Jul 13, 2016 8:20:20 GMT -5
I believe that Nader has already agreed to be stashed in the DLeague.
I wonder if Boston would like Yabusele on the roster so that they can keep him in an NBA strength and conditioning program. Forgot to mention that in my response.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2016 8:55:04 GMT -5
Long term, I want Yu overseas developing not using a year of eligibility. I agree he could make the roster and think he's one of the best 15 but I'd rather keep him and another player like Bentil since I don't think Yu will be a difference maker this season.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 13, 2016 10:12:10 GMT -5
I believe that Nader has already agreed to be stashed in the DLeague. I wonder if Boston would like Yabusele on the roster so that they can keep him in an NBA strength and conditioning program. Forgot to mention that in my response. Yeah, he did and that's why he's a long shot to make the roster. If it weren't for that agreement I think he might. He's been a pleasant surprise. Good body control while driving and a solid jumper. |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 13, 2016 11:03:21 GMT -5
Westbrook is more of a walk in FA risk for me. He's a tier higher in terms of talent and has more distant injury concerns, which makes me think he's more likely to turn down more guaranteed money in favor of trying to get himself to a particular destination (LA is the big one). I think he only gets dealt for a significant return if he agrees to an extension, but setting that aside, I have a hard time seeing him going to LA unless they make serious strides this year and their questionable signings prove to be at least close to worth the deals they got. If I'm him, I see $136m tied up in Luol Deng and Mozgov for the next 4 years and think, "Maybe I should go somewhere with better management." Just cause he played at UCLA doesn't mean he's dying to get back there if it means playing for a badly run organization, and we just watched them strike out just trying to get meetings with every top free agent out there. I've also seen a number of articles, quotes and such implying that he might well be content to sign an extension in OKC. If he signed a deal that took him through age 30, he'd still be in line to cash in with a huge contract after that if he wanted to leave in all likelihood, though it would certainly cost him in the long run, and if they can create some cap space for next year, they might even be an interesting free agent destination with the core they have in place. Adding Blake Griffin to that team wouldn't be implausible given that he's from Oklahoma and that would immediaely vault them back up into a team that, on paper, would look like it could win 55+ games, even if you don't see Oladipo developing much more and no other improvements. Pretty much every major sports reporter and outlet has Westbrook ticketed for LA. He is just not a Boston guy. NBA free agents just aren't wild about this city. In regards to Horford, I think he wasn't wild about Atlanta, liked the Celtics roster and coach and I honestly think having a big Dominican community in Boston played a role in him coming here. We should consider ourselves lucky they can probably grab Hayward next season due to his ties with Stevens and then go from there. |
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Post by cto94 on Jul 13, 2016 11:43:49 GMT -5
Pretty much every major sports reporter and outlet has Westbrook ticketed for LA. He is just not a Boston guy. NBA free agents just aren't wild about this city. In regards to Horford, I think he wasn't wild about Atlanta, liked the Celtics roster and coach and I honestly think having a big Dominican community in Boston played a role in him coming here. We should consider ourselves lucky they can probably grab Hayward next season due to his ties with Stevens and then go from there. I'm not saying he's coming to Boston, but you claimed he has basically said he's going to LA no matter what. That's not true as far as I can tell, and furthermore, since the Durant decision, everything I've seen has indicated that the Thunder think he's more likely to stay in OKC than Durant was. And we were just at least in consideration for the most sought after free agent since Lebron left Cleveland, I think the idea that guys just don't want to play here is seriously overblown at this stage. We signed arguably the 2nd best free agent on the market this summer and were in serious consideration for the top one, who didn't even take a meeting with the Lakers. This is not super relevant right now, but it's kinda ridiculous to be going back to "no free agents want to come to Boston" after the past couple weeks. Build a good organization, and people will come or at least be interested, because it's actually a pretty big media market and some of these dudes actually care about the history. Also if he's spent the first 8 years of his career in OKC, then Boston should feel like New York, Paris and London all rolled into one |
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 13, 2016 12:14:14 GMT -5
I believe that Nader has already agreed to be stashed in the DLeague. I wonder if Boston would like Yabusele on the roster so that they can keep him in an NBA strength and conditioning program. Forgot to mention that in my response. Yeah, he did and that's why he's a long shot to make the roster. If it weren't for that agreement I think he might. He's been a pleasant surprise. Good body control while driving and a solid jumper. Cody Taylor at Baketball Insiders is now saying Nader didn't agree to go to the D league and a final decision on where he will play won't come until after summer league. I suspect he'll still end up agreeing to be stashed. |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 13, 2016 12:47:20 GMT -5
Pretty much every major sports reporter and outlet has Westbrook ticketed for LA. He is just not a Boston guy. NBA free agents just aren't wild about this city. In regards to Horford, I think he wasn't wild about Atlanta, liked the Celtics roster and coach and I honestly think having a big Dominican community in Boston played a role in him coming here. We should consider ourselves lucky they can probably grab Hayward next season due to his ties with Stevens and then go from there. I'm not saying he's coming to Boston, but you claimed he has basically said he's going to LA no matter what. That's not true as far as I can tell, and furthermore, since the Durant decision, everything I've seen has indicated that the Thunder think he's more likely to stay in OKC than Durant was. And we were just at least in consideration for the most sought after free agent since Lebron left Cleveland, I think the idea that guys just don't want to play here is seriously overblown at this stage. We signed arguably the 2nd best free agent on the market this summer and were in serious consideration for the top one, who didn't even take a meeting with the Lakers. This is not super relevant right now, but it's kinda ridiculous to be going back to "no free agents want to come to Boston" after the past couple weeks. Build a good organization, and people will come or at least be interested, because it's actually a pretty big media market and some of these dudes actually care about the history. Also if he's spent the first 8 years of his career in OKC, then Boston should feel like New York, Paris and London all rolled into one It honestly doesn't sound like you read my post. There are obvious reasons Horford came to Boston and why an endorsement baby like Westbrook who is into the hipster/fashion scene would go to LA. I do think Hayward is a lot more likely. |
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Post by texs31 on Jul 13, 2016 13:08:15 GMT -5
FWIW, BR's Howard Beck reporting that:
- GMs in Las Vegas think Westbrook WILL get traded
- They think it will likely be before the season
- Boston is most likely destination.
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