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2016 Boston Celtics Offseason Thread
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 13, 2016 12:58:32 GMT -5
Bender should be the pick. Not sure any prospect behind him is close. I'm not sure what Danny is doing but his draft history isn't stellar. His trade history though...
I wouldn't take Murray in the top 10. He is essentially a stronger Juan Carlos Navarro. Brown isn't worth taking in the top 7. He has so many flaws in his game right now.
There are very few guys who would be net positive players from opening night in this draft. Both Simmmons and Valentine (and even he would need an elite wing next to him -- Paul George/Jimmy Butler) would help teams win right away.
My ideal reasistic 1st round draft: - Bender - one of Luwawu/Valentine/Baldwin - Onuaku -- I think he's severely underrated, I'd take him top 10.
Will probably be 2-4 draft and stash players, some jostling around with 2nd round picks, etc.
A few good follows for those of you who are interested in NBA talk (none of them are me FYI). @donyatesnba @colezwicker @pesquerj
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 13, 2016 15:51:15 GMT -5
Danny hardly ever does draft and stash so we will see.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 14, 2016 8:10:26 GMT -5
I'm a bit nervous that Danny may select Chriss or Brown at number 3. I can't believe people are falling this in love with Chriss that they have him in consideration in the top 5. It's baffling. I get the raw tools but my god the guy cannot rebound a lick and he's weak offensively. So basically, you got a guy who can block shots and had shown some ability to shoot the college 3.
Brown would be a much better choice than Chriss but I still don't like it, but mostly because I don't like drafting guys who can't shoot hoping they learn how to.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 14, 2016 10:33:08 GMT -5
Bender should be the pick. Not sure any prospect behind him is close. I'm not sure what Danny is doing but his draft history isn't stellar. His trade history though... I wouldn't take Murray in the top 10. He is essentially a stronger Juan Carlos Navarro. Brown isn't worth taking in the top 7. He has so many flaws in his game right now. There are very few guys who would be net positive players from opening night in this draft. Both Simmmons and Valentine (and even he would need an elite wing next to him -- Paul George/Jimmy Butler) would help teams win right away. My ideal reasistic 1st round draft: - Bender - one of Luwawu/Valentine/Baldwin - Onuaku -- I think he's severely underrated, I'd take him top 10. Will probably be 2-4 draft and stash players, some jostling around with 2nd round picks, etc. A few good follows for those of you who are interested in NBA talk (none of them are me FYI). @donyatesnba @colezwicker @pesquerj I think your being very harsh on Danny and drafting. I actually think he's done very well. Getting players like Bradley and Sullinger in middle of first round. Players like big baby and Powe in second round. His only lottery pick in Smart is still up in air, but there really hasn't been any players drafted after Smart that you can say he should have taken that player. I really trust Danny to pick right player. I think your way off on Murray, he is a complete scorer not just a shooter. I'd say he's twice the player Navarro is. I do love Valentine, he could be the perfect replacement for Turner. I also like Onuako, not sure about top 10 pick, but one of our later first round picks should be enough to get him. This draft is absolutely loaded with PF and C so a bunch of really good players will fall in this draft.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 14, 2016 14:07:27 GMT -5
He also drafted Tony Allen and Rondo later in the first round. The guy actually drafts very well. I'd even give him credit for Gerald Greene (late developed but was a HS kid) and Moore (2nd rd) - he drafts very few busts - Fab Melo...
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Post by tizzle on Jun 14, 2016 17:00:54 GMT -5
He also got Jefferson and Perkins late in the 1st. I'm not sure there is anyone in the NBA who has consistently found good NBA players outside the lottery as Danny.
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Post by ibsmith85 on Jun 14, 2016 18:55:46 GMT -5
He also got Jefferson and Perkins late in the 1st. I'm not sure there is anyone in the NBA who has consistently found good NBA players outside the lottery as Danny. RC Buford/Greg Popovich But your point still stands. I agree DA is an underrated drafter.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 16, 2016 7:11:44 GMT -5
Bismack Biyombo.... What are everyones thoughts on him and what would you be willing to pay him not what do you think he will get but what are you willing to pay?
He's an interesting player to me and one that I think could be a really great fit in a Stevens team. They need more shooting and he doesn't bring that but he brings rebounding and rim protection with great athleticism and youth. However, with that comes a lot of uncertainty and projection. I love his age - only 23... That's a huge plus... If you can keep it at about 4/60 for him then I think it's something you need to consider.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 16, 2016 7:40:44 GMT -5
2 Concerns for me:
1. Is he really only 23? Rumors were out when he was drafted that he was 3-4 years older (making him actually 27). In and of itself, not terrible (27 is still prime years and a 4-5 year deal only takes him into his early 30s)
2. Terms. He's the type of guy that's going to get crazy offers this year and I'm wary of getting into that realm (most say not max but 17/yr?).
For who he is and what he does (an undersized rim-protector) I'd rather give Mickey a chance to earn more playing time in that small-ball big on the 2nd unit.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 16, 2016 7:50:14 GMT -5
I wanted Biyombo last offseason. I wouldn't mind him this year, but not for 4 years and 60 million. Would do a Johnson type contract if Danny can't get other players. Just don't want to spend 15 million on long term deal on an unproven non star player.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 16, 2016 8:13:58 GMT -5
Agreed (and I think his numbers are going to exceed that, at least in term).
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Post by texs31 on Jun 16, 2016 8:29:28 GMT -5
In the past couple of days, I've seen a handful of Jimmy Butler trade ideas (not rumors) floated around by "experts".
Basketball Insiders' Joel Brigham posted 5 trades (3 with Minnesota and 2 with Boston). His Boston ideas:
Bradley/Crowder/Olynyk and #3 - to me this is crazy. The funny part is that JB says Boston might feel this is too rich (might?). Even funnier is that he thinks the problem is Kelly Olynyk. Yikes
Bradley/Rozier/Jerebko/#3/#16 - This one is much more palatable but I'm not sure Chicago would really do that. One of the Minny deals is Lavine, Dieng and #5 which I think would be a better offer (unless getting that #3 is so important to them). If I'm Chicago, I'd rather take the Minnesota offer.
Meanwhile, on ESPN, Celtics writer Chris Forsberg and Bulls Reporter Nick Friedell played Boston and Chicago GMs respectively. Friedell opened with:
Bradley/Crowder/#3/2017 right to swap with Brooklyn - Nope. I don't think an explanation is needed.
Forsberg countered with Bradley/Young/#3/#16/#23 - There is a lot of quantity there and Bradley + #3 has good value but Young would be of little interest and #16/#23 have good but not great value.
I know many are preaching patience here (btw, if we knew Durant would come here if we go and get Butler, my stance might change) but what do people think? If you're not willing to part with Bradley (preferable) or Crowder (less ideal and CERTAINLY not both), then I'm guessing it's a non-starter (maybe Smart could replace one of those guys).
But would you consider Bradley + #3 plus something else? What would that something else be?
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 16, 2016 9:03:41 GMT -5
This draft has a lot of depth to it, but not much franchise changing talent -- which actually hurts Boston because teams don't feel the need to really move up the board since there isn't a substantial leap in talent (outside the top 2).
@dangercart tweeted out a draft pick "value" chart, which valued the combination of #16 + #23 picks as equal value as the #10 pick, which makes sense. But he argues #16 + #23 picks in this year's draft would have equal value as the #7 pick.
Valentine supposedly has some knee issues that could really knock him down the draft board. Ulis has a fairly significant injury concern too. Bummer for both of them.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 16, 2016 9:11:23 GMT -5
I would rather trade Crowder than Bradley. I would do a Crowder, #3, #23 and Rozier/Young. Wanted to add that Butler's 3 point shot worries me. For 4 years he's been very good one year and then not very good the next year. His career #s aren't that good. He's still a very good player and elite when his 3 point shot is going down. I'm just not going going to make a crazy offer for Butler, like I would for Cousins.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 16, 2016 9:54:37 GMT -5
Really? I guess I'm shocked at that bc, for me, it's Crowder in nearly every way. While they are statistically similar in many of the traditional categories, advanced stats like WAR give a CLEAR advantage to Crowder (7.6 vs 3.8). His contract is MUCH better (4 more years at 6-8 a year vs 2 more at 8 to almost 9).
Also, I tend to feel that Bradley is what he is (which is good) but I can't help but feel Crowder has more room to improve (admittedly, there may be some bias in that given Crowder's newness to Boston and to the role of regular contributor).
Lastly, I'm wondering if there is a fragility trend with Crowder. He has missed significant stretches at a young age and it makes me wonder where that goes from here. Unless I'm missing something, Crowder has no such trends.
Not a criticism of your stance, just a bit surprised, that's all.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 16, 2016 11:19:49 GMT -5
I know it doesn't seem so, but Bradley is younger than Crowder. So whatever room Crowder had to grow, so does Bradley. I'm not sure how well advance stats represent Bradley's true value. ESPN real plus minus gives Bradley a negative defensive rating, which I don't buy. Would have to look, but i'm guessing that had to do with who they paired him with, playing along side Thomas might have really hurt his numbers. They also rank him as PG and not SG, which again would hurt his war, as his assists would be dreadful for a pg.
Also real plus mins and war show Love as top 10 player and a very good defensive rating. They rated Sullinger 28th in whole league and one of the better defenders by dRPM, Crowder was 26th.
For me it's close, but I like Bradley, Butler and Thomas a little bit more, over Crowder, Butler and Thomas. With Bradley we have more shooting, which I think is big.
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Post by jmei on Jun 16, 2016 11:49:11 GMT -5
Bradley is an elite on-ball defender, especially on pick-and-rolls, but he's not as good of a team defender. He tends to stick to his man a little too closely and does not have the best intuition in terms of helping and recovering or playing the passing lanes. He's also a bad defensive rebounder. I agree that him spending so much time with Thomas introduces some noise in the plus/minus-based stats, but I also think his true defensive contributions aren't as good as his reputation.
Between him and Crowder, I'd take Crowder (and I don't think it's that close), largely because of contractual status. If we're just comparing them as players, it's much closer, but I'd still take Crowder (more versatile defensively, more efficient offensively).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 16, 2016 12:01:17 GMT -5
Bradley's DRPM last 3 years -1.24, .73 and 1.22. Thomas is -1.93, -2.69 and -1.62.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 16, 2016 12:29:49 GMT -5
Bradley is a whopping 5 months younger (so you're right but I would argue that injuries that Bradley has already sustained plus just pure minutes played are probably enough to offset the difference in "nba age")
EDIT: Sorry, I missed the rest of your point about age. As I admitted, there is a bit of perception bias but we've seen Bradley get slightly better as he's gained more experience. Meanwhile, Crowder seems to have taken a HUGE leap since becoming a starter/rotational player.
So, yes, they are of similar age and on that basis projection might be similar. While I'm open to the idea of Bradley continuing to improve, I just feel (and, I admit, it's a feel thing so that's why I'm not harping on it too much) Crowder can continue to improve more.
I also think his "fit" in the new nba (and Stevens' system) is better (again, a potentially wishy/washy argument but . . . ). One of the great sources of mismatch, to me, is at the forward position. If you have 1 guy that could guard either the quick or power forward positions, that opens up a lot more flexibility with who you pare next to him.
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 16, 2016 14:07:33 GMT -5
Crowder can guard more positions than Bradley, but cannot shoot nearly as well. 33% on 5 attempts to game is bad for Jae. 36% on 5.4 attempts per game for Bradley is about average.
Still would rather have Crowder of the two but I think people tend to overlook his poor shooting when evaluating him.
I wonder when IT and Bradley will be more valuable as trade pieces than players. We are likely coming up to that point soon with AB, if we're not already there already.
jmei, I agree with you on Bradley's defensive prowess being a bit overrated. Great on ball, meh off ball.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 16, 2016 14:59:15 GMT -5
I agree that on a pure value point of view Crowder has more value, for me based off his great contract. I just feel Bradley would be a better fit when forming a contender and that there value based just on play is very close.
Also if you really want Butler, Crowder with his more value gives you a better chance at getting him. I look at Crowder differently. I'm not sure how much more growth he has in him. 4 year college player and 4 years in NBA. He just needed playing time to bust out. Bradley only played one year of College ball and then sat on bench for years while big three did their thing. At this point I really think they are who they are. Sure we can see some slight improvements, but I don't expect either player to improve greatly going forward.
Sure Bradley might not be best team defender, but he is best on ball defender in league. Against teams will a ball dominant guards his value is huge. Look at his play against a team like Golden State, he can be a real weapon and not many guards can do what he can do.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 16, 2016 15:16:07 GMT -5
Absolutely agree on Crowder's total value to other teams and believe that's the guy most teams want (aside from picks).
As for fit on a contender, I'd actually think Crowder is better. Again, he can lineup against 2s, 3s and 4s and not be totally dominated. While Bradley is great on the ball, I can't see him lineup against a PF and not get destroyed by most of them.
Crowder just seems to be every thing we wanted Jeff Green to be (albeit less offensive upside - though more consistency). While I won't use HIS name, talk about a guy who would be perfect to lineup next to a tall scoring F. Wouldn't matter which one is the PF and which one is the SF. Just figure out where you need the better defender and put Crowder on him. We don't really have anyone else like that. Butler would certainly have more defensive flexibility if that's the trade but him at G and Crowder and F (or a small ball lineup with Smart/Butler/Crowder plus a rim-protector to be named later would be a touch matchup).
On the other hand, if Smart could ever improve on the offensive side, some of the defensive value Bradley brings could be offset.
BC of that fit, I have it in my head (it's a strange place, trust me) that if Butler is the guy, I'd rather give up Bradley. However, if Paul George is the target, I'd be more willing to give up Crowder (again, I admit that it's based more on perception not stats).
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Post by jmei on Jun 16, 2016 15:20:09 GMT -5
Bradley is definitely a better shooter and floor-stretcher, but Crowder is the more efficient overall offensive player. Other than catch-and-shoot 3s, Bradley's only real offensive skill is the ability to create long pull-up 2s, which are a very inefficient shot, even if Bradley hits them at a decent clip. Crowder is much better at getting to and finishing at the basket and earning foul shots. Admittedly, more of Bradley's shots are unassisted, which makes him a decent (if inefficient) secondary option for an shot-creation-starved team like these Celtics, but as a role player on a team with legit stars who can create shots for themselves and others, I think Crowder is the better offensive fit.
Crowder is also a better fit in the new positionless NBA. His versatility is a big draw for me-- he can guard 1 through 4, decent shooter (with additional upside there), can drive and finish, decent passer, etc.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 16, 2016 16:04:06 GMT -5
I love his versatility, but saying he can guard 1-4 is a big stretch for me. I also see Crowder as strictly a SF, sure you can play a small ball line up against certain teams with him at PF, but not on a full time basis. I just don't think Crowder can play full time D against PG and PF. Sure he can guard them in pick and rolls, and against certain players, but not in general.
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Post by tjb21 on Jun 17, 2016 9:52:51 GMT -5
Switchability is a great skill for players, Crowder has that.
True Shooting Percentage: Jae 56.5% Avery 53.8
Good call jmei. Crowder does possess more off the dribble game than Bradley and he's attacked closeouts to score a lot more this year. Bradley also isn't as good of a passer and turns it over more. Crowder almost had 2x the win shares this year too.
I'm not sure how much projection either guy has but IF (big) Jae can make even 36% of his 3s next season, it would be a major improvement to the roster.
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