SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
How do you improve the Red Sox
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 7, 2016 6:48:32 GMT -5
Only 8 of mlb's top 25 prospects are pitchers which makes trading for near major league ready pitching prospect tough. The trick is to find one who's struggled. Gausman, Taijuan Walker a year ago, Archie Bradley...guys who've taken some MLB lumps and whose teams are looking for someone more reliable. The Sox have ones in Owens and Johnson...not able to start for contenders, but who have shown good stuff in the past. Imagine if the Sox had called the Indians about Carrasco when he was 26 in AAA, fresh off of being shelled in MLB? Even Rodriguez was bought low, rocketing through the minors and then getting injured and putting up a mid-4 ERA in AA. Same with Escobar, and to an extent, Hembree (as a reliever, which is more volatile). The Sox seem to have hit on 2 of 3. The percentages aren't great, but short of signing/developing your own pitchers, that's the most effective way to get good ones. And if you buy low, odds are you can find someone else to do the same if the guy has good stuff but doesn't put it together for you. The other trick is to find a team willing to sell low on a pitcher with options. Why would the Red Sox trade Owens or Johnson now? What would a team have to give up for us to give up on them? Probably more than they're worth. They're probably better off being patient with them while they still can be. They traded RDLR and Webster when they ran out of options, since those were guys who were going to force them to keep them on the 25 man roster or else lose them to waivers. That's a tough position to be in when you're not certain they're major league players. |
|
|
|
Post by bsout2 on Jun 7, 2016 6:51:31 GMT -5
Does anyone else think Moncada and possibly Devers are not in the organization come August 1?
The Red Sox are in a win now mode the next two to three years and need another pitcher. Benintendi is the only non-pitching prospect I see having a place on this team in that current window.
Between the Travis and Swihart injuries and Devers inability to highlight a trade now, I think it's realistic to expect Moncada to be used as a center piece in a trade for a starting pitcher.
|
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 7, 2016 7:48:19 GMT -5
Getting Greinke means no chance to extend the young core talent and attaching too much money to 3 pitchers (2 of them over 30s). That's how you sink a team in the long run. AZ has already paid a big chunk of his $200+ mil salary with a large signing bonus, ect. I think he's down to 150 mil. I know that's not peanuts, it's just not ridiculous. FA pitching will be thin going forward & we are not deep in the minors even for a #2 or #3 until Kopech/Neo come up. At worst, Grienke is a #2 (IMO). Buch is gone after this year or before. |
|
Guidas
Veteran
Posts: 14,788
Member is Online
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 7, 2016 7:57:19 GMT -5
Does anyone else think Moncada and possibly Devers are not in the organization come August 1? The Red Sox are in a win now mode the next two to three years and need another pitcher. Benintendi is the only non-pitching prospect I see having a place on this team in that current window. Between the Travis and Swihart injuries and Devers inability to highlight a trade now, I think it's realistic to expect Moncada to be used as a center piece in a trade for a starting pitcher. I am actually thinking Moncada is the guy they don't trade because of the $60M up front investment. It always depends on the return for any or all of these guys (see: Trout, Mike). I could see them moving 3 of the top 4 for an elite/near elite controllable pitcher, but not one who is 32. Personally, if I am moving those assets, I want a young, elite, controllable position player. Less likely to break down. |
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 7, 2016 8:09:10 GMT -5
Personally, if I am moving those assets, I want a young, elite, controllable position player. Less likely to break down. Everyone wants those guys, which is why they don't really get traded. Who fits that description who's even remotely likely to be moved? By far the most likely way for the Red Sox to have another young, elite, controllable position player is by holding on to the high-ceiling prospects they already have. |
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 7, 2016 8:40:49 GMT -5
The only guy I trade Moncada for is Syndergaard.
|
|
Guidas
Veteran
Posts: 14,788
Member is Online
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 7, 2016 10:00:29 GMT -5
The only guy I trade Moncada for is Syndergaard. I believe mid-season last year I proposed trading Bogaerts straight up for Syndergaard and we all had quite an interesting discussion. |
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 7, 2016 10:18:24 GMT -5
The only guy I trade Moncada for is Syndergaard. I believe mid-season last year I proposed trading Bogaerts straight up for Syndergaard and we all had quite an interesting discussion. Given the ever-increasing value of those guys, we could probably have that discussion again! |
|
Guidas
Veteran
Posts: 14,788
Member is Online
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 7, 2016 14:46:10 GMT -5
I believe mid-season last year I proposed trading Bogaerts straight up for Syndergaard and we all had quite an interesting discussion. Given the ever-increasing value of those guys, we could probably have that discussion again! I don't think this deal would happen this year in either direction, but the idea of quality starting pitching becomes more interesting if one considers that the Sox and many other orgs are often looking 3-5 years ahead as they make moves (or non-moves) with the current team. For example, if they decide they need a starter, then given what they have in the minors, do they go for a band-aid or decide they want at least, say, 2 more years of control. This becomes especially important when you look at the free agent classes for this year and next year. With Strasberg off the boards the best starters this winter are Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson, Ivan Nova and (potentially) Clay Buchholz. 2017 FA class includes more but still filled with caveats - Arrietta, Darvish, Tanaka (if he opts out) Gio Gonzalez and a few others. 2018, as we all know, is a potential free for all with a ton of high quality FAs set to hit the market. Point being, given the relatively shallow FA starter markets for next two years, the dearth of starting pitching in the upper level of the minors right now for the Sox, and Dombrowski's reputation as someone who is willing to make, shall we say, bold moves, this could be a very interesting July. |
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jun 7, 2016 15:07:08 GMT -5
The trick is to find one who's struggled. Gausman, Taijuan Walker a year ago, Archie Bradley...guys who've taken some MLB lumps and whose teams are looking for someone more reliable. The Sox have ones in Owens and Johnson...not able to start for contenders, but who have shown good stuff in the past. Imagine if the Sox had called the Indians about Carrasco when he was 26 in AAA, fresh off of being shelled in MLB? Even Rodriguez was bought low, rocketing through the minors and then getting injured and putting up a mid-4 ERA in AA. Same with Escobar, and to an extent, Hembree (as a reliever, which is more volatile). The Sox seem to have hit on 2 of 3. The percentages aren't great, but short of signing/developing your own pitchers, that's the most effective way to get good ones. And if you buy low, odds are you can find someone else to do the same if the guy has good stuff but doesn't put it together for you. The other trick is to find a team willing to sell low on a pitcher with options. Why would the Red Sox trade Owens or Johnson now? What would a team have to give up for us to give up on them? Probably more than they're worth. They're probably better off being patient with them while they still can be. They traded RDLR and Webster when they ran out of options, since those were guys who were going to force them to keep them on the 25 man roster or else lose them to waivers. That's a tough position to be in when you're not certain they're major league players. Yeah, I'm 100% *not* advocating that the Sox trade either. I'm just saying that teams (and their fans) give up on guys early when they don't have immediate success. Sometimes, those teams can be talked into trading those players, usually for immediate help at the MLB level. It's about picking your spots. How much do you want to bet teams have put out feelers on those two while dangling bullpen help or platoon LFers? |
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jun 7, 2016 15:09:59 GMT -5
To be clear, I say the Sox ought to try to acquire more players like that, not get rid of the ones they have. Except Brentz. I'm certain he's no seller's remorse candidate.
|
|
alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 639
|
Post by alnipper on Jun 7, 2016 15:55:39 GMT -5
Does anybody know Brandon Workman's rehab update?
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,603
|
Post by radiohix on Jun 7, 2016 16:06:33 GMT -5
Does anybody know Brandon Workman's rehab update? |
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,020
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 7, 2016 16:54:15 GMT -5
Does anyone else think Moncada and possibly Devers are not in the organization come August 1? The Red Sox are in a win now mode the next two to three years and need another pitcher. Benintendi is the only non-pitching prospect I see having a place on this team in that current window. Between the Travis and Swihart injuries and Devers inability to highlight a trade now, I think it's realistic to expect Moncada to be used as a center piece in a trade for a starting pitcher. No, they don't. They might, but it appears unlikely. Let me frame this yet another way. 1) They'll need a #3 starter if Wright or Porcello is so bad in the next two months that you'd feel at a significant disadvantage sending out whoever is faltering versus another club's #3 in the post-season. Wright's been pitching like a borderline ace, and Porcello has been a borderline #2/#3 for the last few years, so that seems very unlikely. 2) Half the recent WS winners have had a #4 starter who was below MLB average, so they'll only need to get a #4 if their fourth best starter, whoever he is, is well below MLB average. That seems like an unlikely scenario for E-Rod -- you can imagine him being inconsistent and mediocre because of the aftermath of the knee injury, but bad? That's a stretch. 3) You'd need a 5th starter only if everyone who has filled that role is getting hit so hard that you fear you'll miss the post-season. Elias is pretty well-established as a serviceable 5th starter, and when you combine that with the collective probability that either Buchholz, Kelly, or Owens will pitch well enough to fill that role as well, this seems really unlikely as well. What's more, based on run differential so far, the Sox project to win the division by 8 games. Now, as long as JF handles the bullpen badly, that won't happen, but this has still been the best team in the AL by a mile (W/L record notwithstanding). You might want to upgrade your 5th starter if you were on the playoff cusp, but there's solid reason to believe we can open up a lead in the next two months. Because ... Right now the Orioles have a 6.5 win advantage over the Sox in terms of turning offensive and defensive events into wins (+2.8 versus -3.7). Some of that is Showalter versus Farrell, but statistically, such numbers have no predictive power at all. And it's the only reason the teams appear to be close. |
|
|
|
Post by dcsoxfan on Jun 7, 2016 18:05:35 GMT -5
Does anyone else think Moncada and possibly Devers are not in the organization come August 1? The Red Sox are in a win now mode the next two to three years and need another pitcher. Benintendi is the only non-pitching prospect I see having a place on this team in that current window. Between the Travis and Swihart injuries and Devers inability to highlight a trade now, I think it's realistic to expect Moncada to be used as a center piece in a trade for a starting pitcher. No, they don't. They might, but it appears unlikely. Let me frame this yet another way. 1) They'll need a #3 starter if Wright or Porcello is so bad in the next two months that you'd feel at a significant disadvantage sending out whoever is faltering versus another club's #3 in the post-season. Wright's been pitching like a borderline ace, and Porcello has been a borderline #2/#3 for the last few years, so that seems very unlikely. 2) Half the recent WS winners have had a #4 starter who was below MLB average, so they'll only need to get a #4 if their fourth best starter, whoever he is, is well below MLB average. That seems like an unlikely scenario for E-Rod -- you can imagine him being inconsistent and mediocre because of the aftermath of the knee injury, but bad? That's a stretch. 3) You'd need a 5th starter only if everyone who has filled that role is getting hit so hard that you fear you'll miss the post-season. Elias is pretty well-established as a serviceable 5th starter, and when you combine that with the collective probability that either Buchholz, Kelly, or Owens will pitch well enough to fill that role as well, this seems really unlikely as well. What's more, based on run differential so far, the Sox project to win the division by 8 games. Now, as long as JF handles the bullpen badly, that won't happen, but this has still been the best team in the AL by a mile (W/L record notwithstanding). You might want to upgrade your 5th starter if you were on the playoff cusp, but there's solid reason to believe we can open up a lead in the next two months. Because ... Right now the Orioles have a 6.5 win advantage over the Sox in terms of turning offensive and defensive events into wins (+2.8 versus -3.7). Some of that is Showalter versus Farrell, but statistically, such numbers have no predictive power at all. And it's the only reason the teams appear to be close. And if you go back to 31 July 2015, what you're saying becomes even more true. Since last July 31, the Red Sox are 65 - 50; a .565 winning percentage (92 wins over a full season). They have out scored their opponents by 130 runs over that period (projects to about a 98 win season). It's really hard to imagine that that's not pretty much what they are (a 92 to 98 win team) or that there are five better teams in the AL. This looks like a playoff team, warts and all. Given (a) the low rate of return on prospects and (b) the volatility in performance in even the best players in small sample sizes (see David Price's first two months), I think patience is clearly the best course, at least for now. They just had ten games against a pair of decent, reasonably hot teams; they'll play some weaker, cooler teams, and we'll feel better about this team. |
|
Guidas
Veteran
Posts: 14,788
Member is Online
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 7, 2016 18:15:50 GMT -5
Does anyone else think Moncada and possibly Devers are not in the organization come August 1? The Red Sox are in a win now mode the next two to three years and need another pitcher. Benintendi is the only non-pitching prospect I see having a place on this team in that current window. Between the Travis and Swihart injuries and Devers inability to highlight a trade now, I think it's realistic to expect Moncada to be used as a center piece in a trade for a starting pitcher. No, they don't. They might, but it appears unlikely. Let me frame this yet another way. 1) They'll need a #3 starter if Wright or Porcello is so bad in the next two months that you'd feel at a significant disadvantage sending out whoever is faltering versus another club's #3 in the post-season. Wright's been pitching like a borderline ace, and Porcello has been a borderline #2/#3 for the last few years, so that seems very unlikely. 2) Half the recent WS winners have had a #4 starter who was below MLB average, so they'll only need to get a #4 if their fourth best starter, whoever he is, is well below MLB average. That seems like an unlikely scenario for E-Rod -- you can imagine him being inconsistent and mediocre because of the aftermath of the knee injury, but bad? That's a stretch. 3) You'd need a 5th starter only if everyone who has filled that role is getting hit so hard that you fear you'll miss the post-season. Elias is pretty well-established as a serviceable 5th starter, and when you combine that with the collective probability that either Buchholz, Kelly, or Owens will pitch well enough to fill that role as well, this seems really unlikely as well. What's more, based on run differential so far, the Sox project to win the division by 8 games. Now, as long as JF handles the bullpen badly, that won't happen, but this has still been the best team in the AL by a mile (W/L record notwithstanding). You might want to upgrade your 5th starter if you were on the playoff cusp, but there's solid reason to believe we can open up a lead in the next two months. Because ... Right now the Orioles have a 6.5 win advantage over the Sox in terms of turning offensive and defensive events into wins (+2.8 versus -3.7). Some of that is Showalter versus Farrell, but statistically, such numbers have no predictive power at all. And it's the only reason the teams appear to be close. Do you believe the schedule might work against this, however? 40 of their last 62 games are on the road, and includes two west coast road trips which players say are always brutal late in the year? WIthin that stretch are 20 games, 1 day off, followed by 24 days before the next day off. |
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jun 7, 2016 21:44:29 GMT -5
“@billkoch25: #PawSox manager Kevin Boles said Joe Kelly left tonight’s start with right groin injury. Felt something pitch before his last of the night.”
|
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 7, 2016 21:47:04 GMT -5
“@billkoch25: #PawSox manager Kevin Boles said Joe Kelly left tonight’s start with right groin injury. Felt something pitch before his last of the night.” He's got great stuff though. |
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2016 21:55:46 GMT -5
“@billkoch25: #PawSox manager Kevin Boles said Joe Kelly left tonight’s start with right groin injury. Felt something pitch before his last of the night.” I certainly don't wish injury on him by any means, but if this is a minor injury that proves the final straw in the Red Sox pretending that Kelly is a starter then it is an overall positive. Hopefully this is the case and he can return in a week for a transition to the PawSox pen, where he dominates for a month and we all talk ourselves into him being the next Wade Davis. |
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 7, 2016 22:13:34 GMT -5
It's always something with Joe Kelly, I hate to say. The Sox gambled that Kelly and Porcello were going to take big turns and be much better than they were when the Sox acquired them. But it hasn't worked out that way, although at least Porcello is very serviceable.
|
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jun 7, 2016 22:42:41 GMT -5
2 legit Starters and at least 3, probably 4 Relief Pitchers are needed to be true contenders for a World Series Title. The Royals won the World Series 8 months ago without one legit starter. Not true and even if it was, would that be the blueprint to follow? Obviously not and your point is moot. |
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jun 7, 2016 22:44:05 GMT -5
This team is 4-15 when scoring 4 runs or less. And that's with a 3-2 record when scoring 4 runs. The Pitching Staff needs a MAJOR Overhaul. 2 legit Starters and at least 3, probably 4 Relief Pitchers are needed to be true contenders for a World Series Title. Trading for Pitching might be tough because now there are 2 valuable trade pieces gone; Sam Travis & Blake Swihart Can you please stick to reality? The Red Sox are not trading for 6 pitchers. Read what he wrote. He's stating we need to have that many not acquire that many. |
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 8, 2016 5:50:23 GMT -5
“@billkoch25: #PawSox manager Kevin Boles said Joe Kelly left tonight’s start with right groin injury. Felt something pitch before his last of the night.” He's got great stuff though. Lol this is funny. I'm expecting a cy young award winning performance from this point on. |
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 8, 2016 5:52:32 GMT -5
“@billkoch25: #PawSox manager Kevin Boles said Joe Kelly left tonight’s start with right groin injury. Felt something pitch before his last of the night.” I certainly don't wish injury on him by any means, but if this is a minor injury that proves the final straw in the Red Sox pretending that Kelly is a starter then it is an overall positive. Hopefully this is the case and he can return in a week for a transition to the PawSox pen, where he dominates for a month and we all talk ourselves into him being the next Wade Davis. I have been hoping for this for almost a year now. I have pretty much almost given up on it. I really don't think Kelly wants to be a bullpen guy, even if it means that he has to pitch in a AAA rotation to be a starter. Guy seems selfish honestly. |
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Jun 8, 2016 12:34:59 GMT -5
How do you improve the Red Sox?
Starters (9)
C- Vazquez
1B- Ramirez
2B- Pedroia
3B- Shaw
SS- Bogaerts
LF- Yelich
CF- Bradley
RF- Betts
DH- Ortiz
Bench(4)
C- Hannigan
UT- Holt
OF- Young
C/OF- Swihart
Starting Pitchers(5)
#1Price
#2Archer
#3Porcello
#4Wright
#5Rodriguez
Relief Pitchers(7)
CL-Kimbrell
LH-Miller
LH-Dolittle
RH-Tazawa
LH-Buchter
RH-Barnes
RH-Buchholz
Build the trade for Yelich around Moncada
Build the trade for Archer around Espinoza
Build the trade for Miller around Benintendi
Build the trade for Doolittle around Chavis
Build the trade for Buchter around Ball
Anyone who is not included in the trades can go back to AAA. If they are out of options they can be waived.
Bring up anyone you have to take the place of Holt & Swihart until they return from the DL.
|
|
|
