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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 16, 2012 9:42:54 GMT -5
Sign me up, Steve. Now sell Towers and Nolan. Thanks Sibby. That would be tough. I want to see us compete for good in 2014. I still like Lester and Buch, but Cherington may have to think WAY outside of the box.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 16, 2012 11:57:32 GMT -5
An Ellsbury for Andrus trade by itself won't happen because Ells has just one year left before becoming a free agent. Scott Boras just complicates it even more. Now........if you really want to bring Elvis to Beantown, I have a wild way of possibly accomplishing it, but you may not like it. Ellsbury and Jon Lester to Texas for Andrus and Derek Holland! THEN................. We move Jose Iglesias and Clay Buchholz to Arizona for Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy THEN..................... we sign Shane Victorino for 2 years to play center in 2013 and right in 2014 when Bradley is ready. At this point, we have a young, all star shortstop and young middle-order bat heading into the next 6 to 8 years. Our rotation couldn't possibly be any worse than last year and the 3 Musketeers (De La Rosa, Webster, and Barnes) will be in Boston in one to two years. Love it, but thats definitely not enough for AZ. They want a 3B so you could add Cecchini too. I dont want to get rid of him but it would probably take at least Garin too. Otherwise i really like i a lot.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 16, 2012 18:26:55 GMT -5
An Ellsbury for Andrus trade by itself won't happen because Ells has just one year left before becoming a free agent. Scott Boras just complicates it even more. Now........if you really want to bring Elvis to Beantown, I have a wild way of possibly accomplishing it, but you may not like it. Ellsbury and Jon Lester to Texas for Andrus and Derek Holland! THEN................. We move Jose Iglesias and Clay Buchholz to Arizona for Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy THEN..................... we sign Shane Victorino for 2 years to play center in 2013 and right in 2014 when Bradley is ready. At this point, we have a young, all star shortstop and young middle-order bat heading into the next 6 to 8 years. Our rotation couldn't possibly be any worse than last year and the 3 Musketeers (De La Rosa, Webster, and Barnes) will be in Boston in one to two years. Love it, but thats definitely not enough for AZ. They want a 3B so you could add Cecchini too. I dont want to get rid of him but it would probably take at least Garin too. Otherwise i really like i a lot. Done! I like Middlebrooks a lot more.
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Post by curll on Oct 19, 2012 12:57:21 GMT -5
How about Ellsbury to Detroit for Drew Smyly?
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Oct 20, 2012 20:07:05 GMT -5
Here's what I would do with Ellsbury and the moves that would follow:
#1 Ellsbury and Mike Aviles to the Rangers in exchange for Elvis Andrus and Justin Grimm
#2 Alfredo Aceves to the Angels in exchange for Dan Haren (saves LA $3.5M, they don't buy him out)
#3 Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jose Iglesias and Ryan Kalish to the Mets in exchange for Ike Davis
#4 Daniel Bard to the Mariners in exchange for John Jaso and Carter Capps
Free Agents Cody Ross, 2 years/$14M David Ortiz, 1 year/$13M with 2nd year mutual option Melky Cabrera, 1 year/$8M (pillow contract)
Rotation Jon Lester LHP Dan Haren RHP Clay Buchholz RHP John Lackey RHP Felix Doubront LHP
Lineup Elvis Andrus SS Dustin Pedroia 2B David Ortiz DH Cody Ross LF Ike Davis 1B Will Middlebrooks 3B Melky Cabrera CF Ryan Lavarnway C (vs LHP) Ryan Sweeney RF
Bullpen Many options
Bench C John Jaso (vs RHP) 1B/OF Jerry Sands INF Ivan de Jesus UTIL Pedro Ciriaco
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Oct 22, 2012 18:05:25 GMT -5
Oh why not - here goes what I'd like to see done with Ellsbury and what I think makes some sense.
The Rangers have a very good team right now, and are a couple pieces away. I doubt they truly want to give Hamilton an absurd contract any more than we do (I think Daniels is a good GM). They have a good line up, they have a good bullpen, their rotation is somewhat "meh". Here is a trade I think works for both teams. (Disclaimer, I want the Sox to go full bore youth movement and build toward 2014 and beyond).
Ellsbury and Morales to the Rangers for Andrus, Martin Perez and we take on Michael Young's last year at full cost.
For Texas they get a CF to replace Hamilton on a team that can legitimately win it all next year. Removing Young not only saves them cash, but allows them the chance to split full season AB between Beltre and Olt (giving Beltre some time off by the occasional DH start). In Morales they get a name that could at best help their rotation as a 3ish pitcher, at worst be another name to add to that sick bullpen and most likely can be a "swing" man for them. They are able to start Profar. Gives them a very sick line up of (I'd guess): Ellsbury CF, Profar SS, Kinsler 2b, Beltre 3b, Olt DH, Cruz RF, Moreland 1b, Murphy LF, Torrealaba C.
The Sox get the SS of the future, on the upswing and with two years on his deal. They get another interesting name in Perez who becomes maybe our 3rd or 4th best prospect though is still likely a year away at least. The cost of acquiring those two is also taking on Michael Young (yeah, I assume a former SS and 3b can play 1b).
You then can trade Iglesias (sub deal for a name like Adams from the Cardinals - or whichever of he, Carpenter or Craig they value the least, which I assume is Adams).
Going into 2014 you have a very talented, young and cheap core of: SS - Andrus; 2B - Pedroia; DH - Ortiz; 3B - Middlebrooks; C - Lavarnway; LF - Bogaerts; 1b - Adams; RF - Brentz / Kalish; CF - Bradley
Starters of: Lester, Buchholz, Doubront and a battle royale between Barnes, DeLaRosa, Webster, Perez, Britton, etc. Those names that don't make it as starters give you interesting arms in the pen.
Also that is a boatload of cash and minor league depth in case a true stud 1B, RF, or SP becomes available.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Oct 23, 2012 12:59:27 GMT -5
Oh why not - here goes what I'd like to see done with Ellsbury and what I think makes some sense. The Rangers have a very good team right now, and are a couple pieces away. I doubt they truly want to give Hamilton an absurd contract any more than we do (I think Daniels is a good GM). They have a good line up, they have a good bullpen, their rotation is somewhat "meh". Here is a trade I think works for both teams. (Disclaimer, I want the Sox to go full bore youth movement and build toward 2014 and beyond). Ellsbury and Morales to the Rangers for Andrus, Martin Perez and we take on Michael Young's last year at full cost. For Texas they get a CF to replace Hamilton on a team that can legitimately win it all next year. Removing Young not only saves them cash, but allows them the chance to split full season AB between Beltre and Olt (giving Beltre some time off by the occasional DH start). In Morales they get a name that could at best help their rotation as a 3ish pitcher, at worst be another name to add to that sick bullpen and most likely can be a "swing" man for them. They are able to start Profar. Gives them a very sick line up of (I'd guess): Ellsbury CF, Profar SS, Kinsler 2b, Beltre 3b, Olt DH, Cruz RF, Moreland 1b, Murphy LF, Torrealaba C. The Sox get the SS of the future, on the upswing and with two years on his deal. They get another interesting name in Perez who becomes maybe our 3rd or 4th best prospect though is still likely a year away at least. The cost of acquiring those two is also taking on Michael Young (yeah, I assume a former SS and 3b can play 1b). You then can trade Iglesias (sub deal for a name like Adams from the Cardinals - or whichever of he, Carpenter or Craig they value the least, which I assume is Adams). Going into 2014 you have a very talented, young and cheap core of: SS - Andrus; 2B - Pedroia; DH - Ortiz; 3B - Middlebrooks; C - Lavarnway; LF - Bogaerts; 1b - Adams; RF - Brentz / Kalish; CF - Bradley Starters of: Lester, Buchholz, Doubront and a battle royale between Barnes, DeLaRosa, Webster, Perez, Britton, etc. Those names that don't make it as starters give you interesting arms in the pen. Also that is a boatload of cash and minor league depth in case a true stud 1B, RF, or SP becomes available. Great job with this. I like it a lot. Even though Michael young is borderline horrible now, the worst case would be he becomes a bench guy and Adams starts. Overall i really like it and it spares us all of our youth.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2012 17:55:16 GMT -5
Ellsbury, Lackey, and Ranaudo for Elvis Andrus and Matt Harrison- Gives them a very good starter and a very good shortstop Sox will have to cover a chunk of Lackey's salary
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 24, 2012 17:17:22 GMT -5
Ellsbury, Lackey, and Ranaudo for Elvis Andrus and Matt Harrison- Gives them a very good starter and a very good shortstop Sox will have to cover a chunk of Lackey's salary Doubt the Rangers would go for that, but we would have to pay ALL of Lackey's salary and add another valuable piece to get that done. Not sure that would be enough for Andrus alone.
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Post by patrmac04 on Nov 4, 2012 16:57:52 GMT -5
Honestly this is not going to happen. We will play out the season with Ells... if he has another MVP type season we offer arbitration and take the pick. Another injury plagued year and his value goes way down and is the only way I could see signing him to play left while Bradley takes over center.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 4, 2012 18:02:23 GMT -5
Honestly this is not going to happen. We will play out the season with Ells... if he has another MVP type season we offer arbitration and take the pick. Another injury plagued year and his value goes way down and is the only way I could see signing him to play left while Bradley takes over center. The is almost certainly how it will play out. If Ells has a poor year (or average), Boras will come to us. If he has a great year, we have a much better chance of winning the wild card and of course picking up an extra pick. I wish we were negotiating with someone other than Scott Boras, but we are not. I'm fine with it playing out this way.
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Post by bostonfan04 on Nov 10, 2012 19:34:46 GMT -5
how does this sound Ellsbury to seattle for either Taijuan Walker or Danny Hultzen? Seattle already has king felix and a couple of good/great pitching prospects but they need hitters and sox need some young pitchers. I think this would be a fair even trade for both sides getting something they need
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 10, 2012 20:29:47 GMT -5
You think giving up one of the best pitching prospects in the game for a one-year rental of a player who's been good one of the last three seasons is fair?
And as far as "they already have Felix" goes, that's a little bit like saying it's ok to steal someone's BMW if they also own a Porche. That would be nice, but...
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 11, 2012 18:33:02 GMT -5
While I agree with FTHW that Walker or Hultzen is a bit high of a cost, I think you are on the right track for what I'd like to see done with Ellsbury, BostonFan. Though we wouldn't get Walker or Hultzen, I do think that Ellsbury for James Paxton would be fair for both teams.
Paxton is by all accounts a prospect that falls somewhere in the top 40 to top 75 range. In the most recent ranking Sickels has him as the 25th best pitching prospect, 7 behind Barnes but comfortably ahead of Webster and Owens (40 and 49) respectively.
Seattle would then be able to try and either resign Ellsbury or get compensated with the pick, while the Sox would get a highly regarded pitcher that has had good success up to the AA level over the last two seasons. Plus, as Oakland demonstrated last year, that division is more up for grabs than a lot of people might have previously thought.
This is the type of value that I think we could get for Ellsbury in a trade, and something I certainly would like to see come to fruition.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 12, 2012 11:00:04 GMT -5
I really like the idea of trading Ellsbury for a big upside pitching prospect. The problem the teams who are deep in pitching are not looking for a 1 year CF (Arizona, Seattle, Pittsburgh) I though an interesting idea was trading Ellsbury for Olt, (or a package of prospects) then flipping Olt (or that package) and boot for a pitching prospect. Seattle did something similar to this with the Yankees last year in the Pineda trade. Ells value really depends how the market plays out, right now there is Bourne, Upton, and Hamilton, in the CF FA market, and other cheaper players who can play CF, like Victorino. You figure the teams who need a CF and are ready to compete would be Philly, Washington, Alanta, and Texas. If some of these center fielders start to sign elsewhere Ellsbury's value can rise pretty quickly. I would have no problem with Victorino in CF to start the season, then he would give us some trade value when JBJ is major league ready. I would much rather have 3 solid-above average outfielders then 1 Justin Upton and 2 Sweeneys
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Nov 12, 2012 11:19:06 GMT -5
Some scouts see Paxton in the bullpen.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 12, 2012 11:37:58 GMT -5
You figure the teams who need a CF and are ready to compete would be Philly, Washington, Alanta, and Texas. If some of these center fielders start to sign elsewhere Ellsbury's value can rise pretty quickly.That's true as far as it goes, but it doesn't erase Ellsbury's spotty track record, injury history, or the fact that he's expensive and on a one year deal after which he becomes extremely expensive. I'm as big an advocate of trading him for young pitching as you're going to find, but I have serious doubts about anyone giving up any sort of top-100 talent for him.
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Post by mainesox on Nov 17, 2012 18:02:27 GMT -5
I'm wondering if there would be mutual interest in an Ellsbury for Cliff Lee trade.
Philly needs a CF in a bad way, and they could use the money saved from Lee to extend Ellsbury, plus they are in a hard spot with their payroll and even an extended Ellsbury wouldn't likely cost as much as Lee.
Boston on the other hand, their biggest need is pitching (particularly front of the rotation pitching) and they have tons of room to add payroll now. Lee is owed $25M per year for the next three years and is hitting his mid thirties, but he's still one of the best pitchers in the game at this point and three years is a shorter commitment than you'd likely get any top pitchers to commit to (Greinke for example, isn't as good and will get at least twice as many years).
Would Boston have to add pieces to the deal to get Lee? Would Philly have to add pieces because of Lee's contract? Would the deal be pretty even one for one? Am I crazy?
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 17, 2012 20:14:47 GMT -5
Have you seen Lee's contract? Twenty five large for the next three years! Now if the Sox were a contending team and needed one more part of the puzzle, I'd be for Lee.
I think that the front of the rotation is not that bad. Lester and Buchholz had off seasons, but, if they revert to form, they are two formidable anchors at the top of the rotation.
I'm not that desparate to spend $75 million for a starter to add to a 69 win team looking to regroup. Hamilton on the other hand....
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 18, 2012 1:12:35 GMT -5
Everyone here realizes that Ellsbury a) has had exactly one season in which he was a better-than-an-average-starter offensive player, and b) looked like crap last season even when healthy, right?
If you're a major league GM, why on earth would you trade for Jacoby Ellsbury right now? And before you say "to buy low," why would the Red Sox sell low on him? I feel like everyone posting in this thread thinks that Ellsbury still has the value he'd have had if the team traded him last year, and is still over-valuing him at that.
If Ellsbury is going to move, it'll be in July if he re-establishes his value and makes teams think that he only performed poorly this past season because he wasn't healthy when he came back.
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Post by curll on Nov 18, 2012 13:37:46 GMT -5
I'll disagree, Chris. His three healthy seasons have all been good-to-fantastic. Even in his second year, he posted a .336 OBP with 50 SB. That is more than fine for a leadoff hitter. His next year, he bumped up to .380 OBP with 70SB. Elite level leadoff production. Obviously, his 2011 was MVP Caliber.
So, GMs are looking at that. He's been a "name" since the 2005 draft. He's attractive, he isn't disruptive in the clubhouse, and he's a great baseball player when massive men haven't crushed his sexy body.
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Post by izzy on Nov 19, 2012 15:55:45 GMT -5
According to Baseball Reference, Jacoby only had a .355 OBP in 2009. In fact, he has never had a .380 OBP in a season.
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Post by justen on Nov 20, 2012 9:09:46 GMT -5
Ellsbury is going to be highly motivated this year, and if so many of you want to remain "competitive" next year, Ellsbury could be a big part in remaining so. If he shows that he can do what he did in '11 than there's a ton of money waiting for him, he knows that, the Red Sox know that. Ellsbury is a bit like Beltre in that he's going to have to prove he can stay healthy and consistent, and that's where the value will come from.
I completely agree with Chris in that Jacoby will have to flip his value. Everyone knows what he CAN do.
By the middle of next year, if we're out of contention, which I doubt, and Ellsbury is having a very good season, than maybe he gets traded. Or maybe they wait out the rest of the season and take the picks in case no one is interested in paying an astronomical price for half a season.
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Post by JP Kitson on Dec 5, 2012 12:28:04 GMT -5
If Braves can't sign a CF this year, is Ellsbury for Teheran out of the realm of possibility? I mean relatively speaking both of these players stock are down, but the Braves have pitching depth and how else are the Sox going to find a potential Ace (granted hes more likely a 2/3).
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Post by wildcardwillie on Dec 5, 2012 12:38:44 GMT -5
Ellsbury and Salty for Niese and Ike Davis or Ellsbury, Salty, and brentz for Davis or Niese, and Dickey.
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