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40 Man Roster, 2016 Edition
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 7, 2016 11:36:48 GMT -5
My update, changes in bold or strikethrough; red are further additions.
SP (10) - Price, Porcello, Wright, E.Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Buchholz, Elias, Owens, Johnson, Haley RP (11) - Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes, Ross, Abad, Hembree, Kelly, Workman, Martin, N.Ramirez, Scott PP (16) - Leon, Vazquez; Ramirez, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Shaw, Sandoval, Holt; Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Young; Swihart, Moncada, Hernandez, Basabe FA (2) - Reliever, RH bench bat.
That leaves 1 spot for the ST roster, plus 2 guys you keep around and DFA when you sign the two free agents.
Candidates for the 1 + 2 spots:
Tavarez Ysla
Ramos
Waiver claim or low-level MLB FA (e.g., upside relief guy)
Marrero Brentz Holaday
Tavavrez never cooled off; in fact, he finished the season with a 12-game hitting streak (997 OPS). Clay Davenport's system doesn't know he had a 632 OPS on June 8 and hit .382 / .416 / .608 subsequently (269 PA), yet it still projects him as a platoon LF; he seems likely to do that job adequately next year. He should be protected.
Ramos, who is just a day younger, did far too little to warrant protection. Ysla is still on the hump, his major negative being his big reverse platoon split which makes him an unlikely LOOGY.
I think Holaday is DFA'd when they set the rosters, along with Jerez. Brentz and Marrero are DFA'd when they sign FA's, and will thus be a bit likelier to clear waivers. If they want to create room for Ysla or a waiver claim or low-level MLB FA, they'll need to do something unexpected, like not protect Martin (whom they could have added to the roster already by DFA'ing Jerez). They may be able to get Elias through waivers in conjunction with adding a third FA.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 7, 2016 15:39:18 GMT -5
I'll keep beating that drum too. Since the trade, lefties are 2 for 20 with seven strikeouts against Abad. The only reason I'd be okay with them letting him go is if they make a conscious decision to go with a six-man bullpen as part of the base roster and carry an extra bench player rather than a LOOGY. And even then, he probably has enough trade value that he's worth tendering a contract. Plus it's likely that Scott would clear waivers if they needed the 40-man spot, imo. My other critique of Fox's great start are that Ysla probably gets added (he'll get picked and might stick, so with that many spots, I don't see why you'd chance it). Tavarez feels a lot like 2014 and 2015 Henry Ramos. I don't see him being protected. He doesn't have the glove or legs, like Basabe, that would make it possible to stash him in the majors for 90 days.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 7, 2016 17:05:22 GMT -5
I'll keep beating that drum too. Since the trade, lefties are 2 for 20 with seven strikeouts against Abad. The only reason I'd be okay with them letting him go is if they make a conscious decision to go with a six-man bullpen as part of the base roster and carry an extra bench player rather than a LOOGY. And even then, he probably has enough trade value that he's worth tendering a contract. Plus it's likely that Scott would clear waivers if they needed the 40-man spot, imo. My other critique of Fox's great start are that Ysla probably gets added (he'll get picked and might stick, so with that many spots, I don't see why you'd chance it). Tavarez feels a lot like 2014 and 2015 Henry Ramos. I don't see him being protected. He doesn't have the glove or legs, like Basabe, that would make it possible to stash him in the majors for 90 days. Tavarez and Ramos are almost polar opposites. Ramos was a big-tools guy you could dream on who couldn't stay healthy. In 2014 he looked like he was becoming an actual prospect when he got hurt, but he's done nothing performance-wise of note since. Tavarez is an organizational guy who worked his way up to AA, went into a phone booth in early June, and came out and put up a 1024 OPS in his last 270 PA. That's not a guy a team is hoping to stash on the roster and then send down to become better. That's a guy who was either a weird mirage, or is ready to start in LF vs. RHP (at least) in MLB next year, and give you a few years of league-average performance (or better) for nothing. Given the incredible dearth of corner OFers, I'd be shocked if no one took a flier on him. Clay Davenport's translations have Tavarez as having had a significantly better season (even including the ordinary start) than Odubel Hererra did two years ago, and even projects his peak a bit better even though Hererra was 2 years younger at the time. Both BP and Davenport have Tararez as an above-average defender in RF and LF both in 2015 and 2016.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 7, 2016 20:01:03 GMT -5
Plus it's likely that Scott would clear waivers if they needed the 40-man spot, imo. My other critique of Fox's great start are that Ysla probably gets added (he'll get picked and might stick, so with that many spots, I don't see why you'd chance it). Tavarez feels a lot like 2014 and 2015 Henry Ramos. I don't see him being protected. He doesn't have the glove or legs, like Basabe, that would make it possible to stash him in the majors for 90 days. Tavarez and Ramos are almost polar opposites. Ramos was a big-tools guy you could dream on who couldn't stay healthy. In 2014 he looked like he was becoming an actual prospect when he got hurt, but he's done nothing performance-wise of note since. Tavarez is an organizational guy who worked his way up to AA, went into a phone booth in early June, and came out and put up a 1024 OPS in his last 270 PA. That's not a guy a team is hoping to stash on the roster and then send down to become better. That's a guy who was either a weird mirage, or is ready to start in LF vs. RHP (at least) in MLB next year, and give you a few years of league-average performance (or better) for nothing. Given the incredible dearth of corner OFers, I'd be shocked if no one took a flier on him. Clay Davenport's translations have Tavarez as having had a significantly better season (even including the ordinary start) than Odubel Hererra did two years ago, and even projects his peak a bit better even though Hererra was 2 years younger at the time. Both BP and Davenport have Tararez as an above-average defender in RF and LF both in 2015 and 2016. What'd Davenport think of Chih-Hsien Chiang? Jeff Natale? Alex Hassan? I really couldn't care less about his Davenport translations. I really couldn't.
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Post by jmei on Sept 7, 2016 22:16:10 GMT -5
Not to mention that Herrera is a plus defensive center fielder and baserunner, while Tavarez is maybe an above-average corner outfielder with average speed. Guys with a half-season of good performance are available as minor league free agents all the time-- think Chris Marrero or Mauro Gomez.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2016 1:36:02 GMT -5
Tavarez and Ramos are almost polar opposites. Ramos was a big-tools guy you could dream on who couldn't stay healthy. In 2014 he looked like he was becoming an actual prospect when he got hurt, but he's done nothing performance-wise of note since. Tavarez is an organizational guy who worked his way up to AA, went into a phone booth in early June, and came out and put up a 1024 OPS in his last 270 PA. That's not a guy a team is hoping to stash on the roster and then send down to become better. That's a guy who was either a weird mirage, or is ready to start in LF vs. RHP (at least) in MLB next year, and give you a few years of league-average performance (or better) for nothing. Given the incredible dearth of corner OFers, I'd be shocked if no one took a flier on him. Clay Davenport's translations have Tavarez as having had a significantly better season (even including the ordinary start) than Odubel Hererra did two years ago, and even projects his peak a bit better even though Hererra was 2 years younger at the time. Both BP and Davenport have Tararez as an above-average defender in RF and LF both in 2015 and 2016. What'd Davenport think of Chih-Hsien Chiang? Jeff Natale? Alex Hassan? I really couldn't care less about his Davenport translations. I really couldn't. Right, because you can think of three examples where the Peak Translations overrated guys that nobody thought was a prospect. Funny you make that point tonight. Here's a pair of 3B prospects, with their annual Davenport Peak Translations along with their ranking among Sox prospects: .260 (18), .272 (19), .267 (11), .270 (1) .272 (depth chart), .294 (unrated), .257 (26), .272 (19). The last two years are .265. A .270 bat with a questionable glove is not a #51 to 56 prospect in all of MLB, while a guy who ends up as a .263 in MLB (not counting tonight, of course) is a lot better than a #19 prospect. How about this guy? .248, .286, which is .264 overall. Last guy on Jim Callis' depth chart both years, because he was insanely old for his league, but that's precisely what the Peak DT's try to account for. He now has 1752 PA in MLB ... with a .263. Sometimes scouts overrate or underrate a player, and that's why statistical translations are a crucial second lens. Tavarez's scouting report here hasn't been updated in years. I kind of put more stock in the complete failure of every pitcher and pitching coach in the Eastern League to get him out for the last three months than a three-year old scouting report which says he couldn't possibly hit AA pitching at all, let alone dominate it. Whether he can really put up a .262 in MLB right now is seriously open to question (of course there are all sorts of intermediate outcomes between my "he's either ..." a characterization), but that he's much better than the available scouting reports is not, and that establishes him as a guy who could be of value. Not to mention that Herrera is a plus defensive center fielder and baserunner, while Tavarez is maybe an above-average corner outfielder with average speed. Guys with a half-season of good performance are available as minor league free agents all the time-- think Chris Marrero or Mauro Gomez. Not guys with three options left. (Or guys who are 24 and whose great half-year could conceivably represent a real performance breakthrough.) Three years of easy control of a guy who is a genuine or good replacement level player (which might well be Tavarez's floor) has some real value. It's insurance against a short-term callup being a black hole, and it saves you roster machinations getting your Ryan LaMarre types onto the MLB roster (Chris Marrero might have been useful this season if he had been on option). We just had that from Bruce Brentz and had him put up an 814 OPS in 52 PA vs. LHP; overall he was about -0.05 WAR in 90 PA. Teams have gotten much worse over 20 - 25 replacement games.
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Post by crazypak79 on Sept 8, 2016 5:45:56 GMT -5
2016 Rule 5 Draft Prospects
Luis Alexander Basabe(OF) Luis Ysla(LHP) Kyle Martin(RHP) Yankory Pimentel(RHP) Justin Haley(RHP) Aneury Tavarez(OF) Jake Romanski(C) Teddy Stankiewicz(RHP) Jamie Callahan(RHP) Jantzen Witte(3B) Austin Maddox(RHP) Mike Meyers(OF) Ty Buttery(RHP) Simon Mercedes(RHP) Daniel Mcgrath(LHP) Raiwinson Lameda(1B/OF)
Rule5 & Milb fa - Henry Ramos(OF), Jose Sermo(IF), Anyelo Leclerc(RHP)
If you are Dave Dombroski, who will protect in 40 Man? I will pick up X-Basabe, Ysla, A.Tavarez(& DFA B.Holladay, Rutledge, Brentz, N.Ramirez, W.Jerez)
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Post by jmei on Sept 8, 2016 6:15:30 GMT -5
That's a reason he'd be claimed on waivers, not a reason he'd be taken in the Rule 5 draft and kept on the roster for the entire year. Teams don't go through all that time and effort just for a replacement-level guy with options.
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 8, 2016 6:33:29 GMT -5
My update, changes in bold or strikethrough; red are further additions. SP (10) - Price, Porcello, Wright, E.Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Buchholz, Elias, Owens, Johnson, HaleyRP (11) - Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes, Ross, Abad, Hembree, Kelly, Workman, Martin, N.Ramirez, ScottPP (16) - Leon, Vazquez; Ramirez, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Shaw, Sandoval, Holt; Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Young; Swihart, Moncada, Hernandez, BasabeFA (2) - Reliever, RH bench bat. That leaves 1 spot for the ST roster, plus 2 guys you keep around and DFA when you sign the two free agents. Candidates for the 1 + 2 spots: TavarezYsla Ramos
Waiver claim or low-level MLB FA (e.g., upside relief guy) Marrero Brentz Holaday Tavavrez never cooled off; in fact, he finished the season with a 12-game hitting streak (997 OPS). Clay Davenport's system doesn't know he had a 632 OPS on June 8 and hit .382 / .416 / .608 subsequently (269 PA), yet it still projects him as a platoon LF; he seems likely to do that job adequately next year. He should be protected. Ramos, who is just a day younger, did far too little to warrant protection. Ysla is still on the hump, his major negative being his big reverse platoon split which makes him an unlikely LOOGY. I think Holaday is DFA'd when they set the rosters, along with Jerez. Brentz and Marrero are DFA'd when they sign FA's, and will thus be a bit likelier to clear waivers. If they want to create room for Ysla or a waiver claim or low-level MLB FA, they'll need to do something unexpected, like not protect Martin (whom they could have added to the roster already by DFA'ing Jerez). They may be able to get Elias through waivers in conjunction with adding a third FA. Does zeiglar get a shot at the relief spot? I think the right handed bat needs to be an of. I am not sure that beni is ready for a reg full season job just yet without some hand holding. Also young has not impressed just yet to fill in big time. Do you think Pablo is on the opening day roster?
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Post by soxjim on Sept 8, 2016 7:23:16 GMT -5
My update, changes in bold or strikethrough; red are further additions. SP (10) - Price, Porcello, Wright, E.Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Buchholz, Elias, Owens, Johnson, HaleyRP (11) - Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes, Ross, Abad, Hembree, Kelly, Workman, Martin, N.Ramirez, ScottPP (16) - Leon, Vazquez; Ramirez, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Shaw, Sandoval, Holt; Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Young; Swihart, Moncada, Hernandez, BasabeFA (2) - Reliever, RH bench bat. That leaves 1 spot for the ST roster, plus 2 guys you keep around and DFA when you sign the two free agents. Candidates for the 1 + 2 spots: TavarezYsla Ramos
Waiver claim or low-level MLB FA (e.g., upside relief guy) Marrero Brentz Holaday Tavavrez never cooled off; in fact, he finished the season with a 12-game hitting streak (997 OPS). Clay Davenport's system doesn't know he had a 632 OPS on June 8 and hit .382 / .416 / .608 subsequently (269 PA), yet it still projects him as a platoon LF; he seems likely to do that job adequately next year. He should be protected. Ramos, who is just a day younger, did far too little to warrant protection. Ysla is still on the hump, his major negative being his big reverse platoon split which makes him an unlikely LOOGY. I think Holaday is DFA'd when they set the rosters, along with Jerez. Brentz and Marrero are DFA'd when they sign FA's, and will thus be a bit likelier to clear waivers. If they want to create room for Ysla or a waiver claim or low-level MLB FA, they'll need to do something unexpected, like not protect Martin (whom they could have added to the roster already by DFA'ing Jerez). They may be able to get Elias through waivers in conjunction with adding a third FA. Does zeiglar get a shot at the relief spot? I think the right handed bat needs to be an of. I am not sure that beni is ready for a reg full season job just yet without some hand holding. Also young has not impressed just yet to fill in big time. Do you think Pablo is on the opening day roster? I thought I heard Zeigler will sign back with Ariz. I do believe Beni is full-time starter next year. I am impressed with Young.
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Post by jmei on Sept 8, 2016 7:29:42 GMT -5
Chris Young is hitting .272/.354/.519 this year, .321/.415/.643 versus lefties.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Sept 8, 2016 7:40:44 GMT -5
I keep Basabe, Martin, Romanski. I say Romanski because I just don't see Swihart, Leon and Vazquez all being in the organization on opening day next year. Someone is being wasted in the minors, and should be flipped to improve the bullpen or help replace Papi in the offense.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2016 7:59:34 GMT -5
My guess: Basabe, Ysla, Martin.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2016 8:20:10 GMT -5
What'd Davenport think of Chih-Hsien Chiang? Jeff Natale? Alex Hassan? I really couldn't care less about his Davenport translations. I really couldn't. Right, because you can think of three examples where the Peak Translations overrated guys that nobody thought was a prospect. Funny you make that point tonight. Here's a pair of 3B prospects, with their annual Davenport Peak Translations along with their ranking among Sox prospects: .260 (18), .272 (19), .267 (11), .270 (1) .272 (depth chart), .294 (unrated), .257 (26), .272 (19). The last two years are .265. A .270 bat with a questionable glove is not a #51 to 56 prospect in all of MLB, while a guy who ends up as a .263 in MLB (not counting tonight, of course) is a lot better than a #19 prospect. How about this guy? .248, .286, which is .264 overall. Last guy on Jim Callis' depth chart both years, because he was insanely old for his league, but that's precisely what the Peak DT's try to account for. He now has 1752 PA in MLB ... with a .263. Sometimes scouts overrate or underrate a player, and that's why statistical translations are a crucial second lens. Tavarez's scouting report here hasn't been updated in years. I kind of put more stock in the complete failure of every pitcher and pitching coach in the Eastern League to get him out for the last three months than a three-year old scouting report which says he couldn't possibly hit AA pitching at all, let alone dominate it. Whether he can really put up a .262 in MLB right now is seriously open to question (of course there are all sorts of intermediate outcomes between my "he's either ..." a characterization), but that he's much better than the available scouting reports is not, and that establishes him as a guy who could be of value. I'm awful at the "I'm just going to list numbers and not tell you who a guy is" game. I'm guessing the first two are Middlebrooks and Shaw? Middlebrooks is literally the example I give every time I say system rankings are relative as someone who was the "number one prospect" in a very weak system (at the top). As for Shaw, he was a first baseman, so yeah, I'm still ok with saying those numbers weren't going to work at first base. Also he hasn't hit since April and just lost his job to a guy who probably isn't ready yet, so is he really the guy you want to hitch your wagon to for this argument, if we're going to say that three-month-or-more sample sizes are large enough to give credence to? As for Nava, great story, love the guy, but I'm ok if that's the guy the process misses. Call it the "Disney rule": If they guy's story would make for a passable Disney movie, he's probably not the best example for why a process doesn't work. I would understand disagreeing with that premise, but that's my worldview there. For what it's worth, I don't have the Davenport Translations in front of me... ever. I picked those three guys off the top of my head as guys whose stats were great but didn't make it. I didn't pick them knowing whether they proved my point or not, so if they did, then great. My points are: 1) I'm not going to get excited about a three-month breakout in Portland in a guy's second season at the level. I'm just not. 2) Even if he is for real, which I'll even leave the door open for, there's no way they add him to the 40 this offseason, which was the point of the discussion. Players like him generally don't get picked in R5 and if they do, it's generally not a huge loss. The ones that stick are the Herreras of the world who can play D and run, generally. This year was a bit of an outlier with Goeddel and Rickard, but both have been relegated to bench roles after got starts. I'm ok with losing a potential bench outfielder in R5 in this particular case.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 8, 2016 8:56:54 GMT -5
Am I reading the Davenport Translations correctly in that they show Jantzen Witte as being essentially as good a hitter as Mookie Betts?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 8, 2016 9:07:57 GMT -5
The CBA expires before the Rule 5 draft, so that's something to keep an eye on.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2016 12:22:30 GMT -5
The CBA expires before the Rule 5 draft, so that's something to keep an eye on. Major League Rule 5 is not part of the CBA.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 8, 2016 12:35:04 GMT -5
My guesses: Basabe, Martin, Haley and Ysla
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 8, 2016 14:00:12 GMT -5
The CBA expires before the Rule 5 draft, so that's something to keep an eye on. Major League Rule 5 is not part of the CBA. I'm confused by that. What if the MLBPA or owners want to expand the 40 man roster to 42? Wouldn't that be a part of CBA negotiations? That would alter the Rule 5 draft.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 8, 2016 15:15:28 GMT -5
Basabe, Martin, Romanski, and maybe Ysla. I think Romanski and Martin would definitely be picked by someone. Romanski has always been a pretty sold defensive catcher, but man did he step it up offensively this year!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2016 15:23:55 GMT -5
Major League Rule 5 is not part of the CBA. I'm confused by that. What if the MLBPA or owners want to expand the 40 man roster to 42? Wouldn't that be a part of CBA negotiations? That would alter the Rule 5 draft. They could agree to amend rules, sure, but it's not like it's something that gets negotiated every CBA or something. The rules for eligibility were last changed in 2006, and that wasn't even a CBA negotiation year I don't think. The point is that there really isn't a connection, necessarily.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 8, 2016 16:22:06 GMT -5
I'm confused by that. What if the MLBPA or owners want to expand the 40 man roster to 42? Wouldn't that be a part of CBA negotiations? That would alter the Rule 5 draft. They could agree to amend rules, sure, but it's not like it's something that gets negotiated every CBA or something. The rules for eligibility were last changed in 2006, and that wasn't even a CBA negotiation year I don't think. The point is that there really isn't a connection, necessarily. Don't you think they'll postpone a lot of offseason dates if the CBA isn't finalized? Especially if they're discussing changing the free agent compensation rules again to get rid of the loss of picks? That pretty much changes the entire free agency market if they do it. It also affects qualifying offers and could change the offseason strategies for both teams and players. I haven't read anything about the CBA negotiations since May so I'm not sure what is on the table. I did read they're going to discuss going back to a 154 game schedule. I hope they also discuss the DH in the NL and possibly adding a roster spot or two. Plus they need to do something with international signings and service time/options to prevent 22 year old international free agents being out of options. And also to address obvious service time manipulations by cheap teams.
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Post by jmei on Sept 8, 2016 16:36:54 GMT -5
Last time they negotiated the CBA in 2011, they didn't postpone any offseason dates. That was the year that the Phillies infamously signed Papelbon days before the new CBA was signed and surrendered their first-round pick. Had they waited a week to formally sign Papelbon, they wouldn't have had to do so, because the new CBA eliminated the draft pick penalty for Type A reliever free agents.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 8, 2016 20:29:37 GMT -5
Basabe is the only lock on this one.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2016 23:49:52 GMT -5
Basabe, Martin, Romanski, and maybe Ysla. I think Romanski and Martin would definitely be picked by someone. Romanski has always been a pretty sold defensive catcher, but man did he step it up offensively this year! Romanski's .308 / .338 / .410 in AA translates, according to Clay Davenport's very generous system of MLE's, to .258 / .285 / .344 in MLB, which is a .217 EqA / TAv, where .215 is replacement level for a catcher. Since he was 25 and repeating AA, he's not likely to get any better; Davenport has his peak at .222. If he has another season like this one next year in Pawtucket (likely as Swihart's backup, at least to start the season), he'll establish himself as a legitimate up-and-down guy, one who won't kill you with ineptitude that you can select from AAA the first time you need a catcher due to injuries, and maybe stash there on option for a few years for whenever you need to do so again (depending on 40-man needs and who is coming up behind him). Sort of what Dan Butler was very briefly. After the year he just had, he's not going to be on anyone's radar as an MLB backup proper. If all goes well, he's something like an 0.5 WAR / 120 games guy.
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