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40 Man Roster, 2016 Edition
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 4, 2016 18:55:16 GMT -5
It's that time again.
It's at 39 currently, plus 5 on the 60-day DL. Before the season is over, Blake Swihart and Brandon Workman should be coming off of the latter, and possibly Josh Rutledge, too. There's a very good chance that Yoan Moncada will be selected and end up on the post-season roster. So now we're at 42 or 43. They may want to take a look at Kyle Martin, too.
William Cuevas and Sean O'Sullivan are easy DFA's. If they want to activate Rutledge (or look at Martin), Williams Jerez looks like the most expendable guy.
After the season, Uehara, Tazawa, Ziegler, and Hill are free agents, and Ortiz retires, so you're at 35. Carson Smith and Pablo Sandoval make 37.
With Leon and Vazquez out of options, Ryan Hanigan's option will be declined. Buchholz? I think it's safe to say that his option will either be picked up, or it won't.
Louis Basabe, Henry Ramos, and Martin seem like the only three guys worth adding, and that gives you 38 or 39.
Looking at the likely MLB roster at season's start, they may want to add an Aaron Hill type to the bench. They have a good trio of relievers in Kimbrel, Barnes, and Ross, and hope to get Smith back at some point, so ideally they see enough good things from Kelly, Workman, and maybe Hembree in September that they feel they need to add only one top arm rather than two. Elias will be out of options and can be traded if they need to clear another roster spot. I think it's safe to say that if they pick up Buchholz's option, he will either be traded, or he won't.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 4, 2016 19:21:01 GMT -5
It's that time again. It's at 39 currently, plus 5 on the 60-day DL. Before the season is over, Blake Swihart and Brandon Workman should be coming off of the latter, and possibly Josh Rutledge, too. There's a very good chance that Yoan Moncada will be selected and end up on the post-season roster. So now we're at 42 or 43. They may want to take a look at Kyle Martin, too. William Cuevas and Sean O'Sullivan are easy DFA's. If they want to activate Rutledge (or look at Martin), Williams Jerez looks like the most expendable guy. After the season, Uehara, Tazawa, Ziegler, and Hill are free agents, and Ortiz retires, so you're at 35. Carson Smith and Pablo Sandoval make 37. With Leon and Vazquez out of options, Ryan Hanigan's option will be declined. Buchholz? I think it's safe to say that his option will either be picked up, or it won't. Louis Basabe, Henry Ramos, and Martin seem like the only three guys worth adding, and that gives you 38 or 39. Looking at the likely MLB roster at season's start, they may want to add an Aaron Hill type to the bench. They have a good trio of relievers in Kimbrel, Barnes, and Ross, and hope to get Smith back at some point, so ideally they see enough good things from Kelly, Workman, and maybe Hembree in September that they feel they need to add only one top arm rather than two. Elias will be out of options and can be traded if they need to clear another roster spot. I think it's safe to say that if they pick up Buchholz's option, he will either be traded, or he won't. Well, I'm not sure about the rest of it, but your analysis of the Buchholz situation is incisive and spot-on! I'd be bummed about Jerez getting cast off, but you're probably right, and he hasn't progressed much this year. Martin seems like a good bet for a look. I think when the injured guys start coming back, it may set off some minor trades. And I'd like to see Hill back. The rotation is set, so the bullpen is the big question. Be nice if they'd re-sign Tazawa, and hopefully Smith comes back, and provides something. I think one quality pen arm is all that they need. Otherwise, it's just sorting out some of the overpriced flotsam, and letting some fringy roleplayers go.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 4, 2016 19:43:01 GMT -5
I'm in favor of picking up Clay's option. If we deal him within 72 hours.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 4, 2016 20:20:55 GMT -5
Currently 39 on 40-man roster. Assume a trade for a FA ("FA X") is made to fill the 40th slot.
-6 for 40-man FAs: Uehara, Tazawa, Ziegler, Hill, Ortiz (technically, he has an option but he is retiring), FA X +4 for 40-man adds: Smith, Workman, Sandoval, Swihart
That puts the 40-man roster at 38, assuming the options for Buchholz and Hanigan are picked up (both may be traded in the offseason, but let's assume that the team maximizes the assets)
-7 for likely 40-man nontenders at end of year: O’Sullivan, D.Marrero, Rutledge, Brentz (out of options), Elias (out of options), Jerez, Cuevas
Possible 40-man adds: Moncada (I think they'll wait until spring to make that decision), Basabe, Ramos, Martin, Haley
There's plenty of room and not many hard choices.
SP - Price, Porcello, Wright, E.Rodriguez, Pomeranz (AAA: Owens, Johnson, Haley) RP - Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes, FA RP, Ross, Abad, Hembree (out of options) (AAA: Kelly, Martin, Workman, N.Ramirez) PP - Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, FA DH, H.Ramirez, Shaw, Bradley, Jr., Benintendi, Leon/C.Vazquez Bench - C.Vazquez/Leon, Holt, Young, Sandoval (AAA: Swihart, M.Hernandez, H.Ramos; A+: Basabe)
Assuming Buchholz and Hanigan are traded after their options are picked up, that leaves 34 on the 40-man, excluding Moncada, with two spots on the 25-man roster (DH, RP) to fill. They could put Kelly in the bullpen, put Moncada at 3B and mix-and-match Shaw/Ramirez/Sandoval at 1B/DH, if they did not want to sign any free agents. Note that there is no guarantee that Smith, Sandoval or Swihart (should he elect surgery) will be ready to start the 2017 season; the above assumes all are healthy.
At minimum, the Red Sox will have 3-4 spots on the 40-man which they can bolster through Rule 5, minor league FAs, DFAs or trades.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 10, 2016 17:30:09 GMT -5
A take 2, informed by amfox's and reflecting recent developments ...
40 guys at current, plus 4 guys you might want on the roster in September.
-- Moncada, definitely. Pinch-runner who might do serious damage if he has to hit. Possible 25th man on a playoff roster. -- Workman, probably. Extra bullpen arm, plus seeing if he has a role for next year. -- Rutledge, probably. Hill's backup as Shaw's platoon partner, 3rd best reserve MI. -- Martin, possibly. Might see what we have for next year.
But Cuevas, O'Sullivan, and Jerez are the only three easy trims. So Martin you wait on.
- Uehara, Tazawa, Ziegler, Hill, Ortiz; + Swihart, Smith, Sandoval. Hanigan's option declined. Right now I think that Buchholz's is as well (or it'll be picked up and he'll be traded). 36.
You need to protect Basabe. Haley is looking like a useful up-and-down long man / 8th starter, and Ramos like a useful up-and-down extra OFer, a guy who could actually be replacement level if needed to be. Now we're at 39.
I'm skeptical about Kyle Martin despite his excellent FIP; given his .325 BABIP, he seems to have an unsustainably low HR/FB. But if they like him, I'm OK with it. And finally, Aneury Tavarez still warrants eyeballs until season's end.
Like amfox, I see only two winter additions: a reliever and a position player, although I think the latter ought to be an Aaron Hill type rather than a full-time DH.
Holaday, Brentz and Elias are out of options. In a perfect world, you get them all through waivers eventually. Brentz would take a ST injury to Young to make the roster, Holaday would probably take 2 injuries, while Elias seems like the longest shot of all, but far and away has the biggest upside. He still has great splits vs. LHB, too.
Rutledge and Marrero are two other fungible guys on the roster, but Marrero you'd really like to give one more year in AAA.
So, there are 34 guys who need to be on the roster, 7 8 guys on the fringe, and after you set the roster at 39 (leaving room for a waiver claim) or 40, you expect to DFA two more guys as you add FA's. The fringe guys are:
Elias Martin Ysla (see the discussion below) Holaday Rutledge Marrero Brentz Tavarez
Holaday is the easiest to jettison, and now you're at 40. Brentz is a guy you can certainly DFA when you sign someone, so that's 41 after they make the second addition.
Martin, Ysla, Tavarez, Rutledge, room for a waiver claim -- choose two or fewer (which would mean extra room for fringe additions). That's what I think the final math is. I'd wait to see what all of the trio do going forward before making that call. Note that if Rutledge is a loser, they may well DFA Brentz when they set the roster instead, and DFA Rutledge when they sign a FA.
Comparing this take to amfox's, he's taking Martin from among the trio quartet, and also dumping Elias and Marrero this winter rather than in ST. I don't see the point of doing the latter, when it's much easier to get guys through waivers and keep them in the org at the end of ST than it is when teams are setting rosters, and where the fringe guys you might add are unlikely to be more interesting than those two.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 10, 2016 18:26:44 GMT -5
Has there been any discussion on the CBA? I can't imagine that teams (and the players) are going to go all out in free agency before there is some certainty. I also wonder if they will overpay for Tazawa, because that's what you have to do now.
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Post by barney27 on Aug 10, 2016 19:28:44 GMT -5
I think clay is gone unless he does something special between now and the end of the season. Ziegler appears out as well as hill. Do you think they go after taz?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 10, 2016 23:51:46 GMT -5
Has there been any discussion on the CBA? I can't imagine that teams (and the players) are going to go all out in free agency before there is some certainty. I also wonder if they will overpay for Tazawa, because that's what you have to do now. I think clay is gone unless he does something special between now and the end of the season. Ziegler appears out as well as hill. Do you think they go after taz? Tazawa has said he wants to start, and he's got three pitches, so I bet someone will give him a decent 1-year deal and promise him a rotation spot.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 11, 2016 0:02:44 GMT -5
Has there been any discussion on the CBA? I can't imagine that teams (and the players) are going to go all out in free agency before there is some certainty. I also wonder if they will overpay for Tazawa, because that's what you have to do now. I think clay is gone unless he does something special between now and the end of the season. Ziegler appears out as well as hill. Do you think they go after taz? Tazawa has said he wants to start, and he's got three pitches, so I bet someone will give him a decent 1-year deal and promise him a rotation spot. Haha he is crazy his arm can't hold up in bullpen I just don't see how it holds up starting.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 11, 2016 0:23:19 GMT -5
It is possible that Tazawa is right, that he should be a starter? He has worn down almost every season as a RP. Maybe he needs the regularity of a starter. He has great stuff for half the season but gets exhausted. We can forget that RPs warm up a lot during games without getting into the games. It takes a toll.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 11, 2016 1:09:59 GMT -5
Has there been any discussion on the CBA? I can't imagine that teams (and the players) are going to go all out in free agency before there is some certainty. I also wonder if they will overpay for Tazawa, because that's what you have to do now. Yeah, I'd like to see them retain him, but not at exhorbitant cost. He does seem to like the organization, though. I can't help but wonder if there's some loyalty there, particularly given his cultural background. He's not consistently great, but he's consistently good (which is rare for relievers), and he has stretches of being truly unhittable.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 11, 2016 1:13:23 GMT -5
Tazawa has said he wants to start, and he's got three pitches, so I bet someone will give him a decent 1-year deal and promise him a rotation spot. Haha he is crazy his arm can't hold up in bullpen I just don't see how it holds up starting. I thought the same thing at first, but he's pitched a lot of games, and warmed up a lot. And they really leaned on him in high-leverage situations. Maybe the regularity of the rotation works for him. I guess nobody knows until it happens. Barnes supposedly still has hopes of starting, too.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 12, 2016 8:05:41 GMT -5
Honestly, Luis Ax. Basabe is so far away that I can't see them adding him to the 40-man. He's in Low A - there's near-zero chance, imo, that he can perform well enough to even stash him in the majors right now. Luis Ysla (his omission above is a pretty big oversight, imo, as he strikes me as a pretty obvious add) and Kyle Martin jump out as the only 40-man adds I see, and maybe Henry Ramos if he re-signs. People here will hem and haw about Justin Haley not being protected and he might even get picked, but he strikes me as the kind of replacement-level/up-and-down guy you don't waste a 40-man spot on.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 12, 2016 10:31:05 GMT -5
Honestly, Luis Ax. Basabe is so far away that I can't see them adding him to the 40-man. He's in Low A - there's near-zero chance, imo, that he can perform well enough to even stash him in the majors right now. Luis Ysla (his omission above is a pretty big oversight, imo, as he strikes me as a pretty obvious add) and Kyle Martin jump out as the only 40-man adds I see, and maybe Henry Ramos if he re-signs. People here will hem and haw about Justin Haley not being protected and he might even get picked, but he strikes me as the kind of replacement-level/up-and-down guy you don't waste a 40-man spot on. What about Tavarez?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 12, 2016 10:32:02 GMT -5
Honestly, Luis Ax. Basabe is so far away that I can't see them adding him to the 40-man. He's in Low A - there's near-zero chance, imo, that he can perform well enough to even stash him in the majors right now. Luis Ysla (his omission above is a pretty big oversight, imo, as he strikes me as a pretty obvious add) and Kyle Martin jump out as the only 40-man adds I see, and maybe Henry Ramos if he re-signs. People here will hem and haw about Justin Haley not being protected and he might even get picked, but he strikes me as the kind of replacement-level/up-and-down guy you don't waste a 40-man spot on. Basabe could play defense in MLB right now, so he wouldn't be useless as a 25th man. He has star upside. If I'm the Braves or the Reds, I'd draft him in a heartbeat and "waste" a roster spot on him, which would have zero impact on the team in 2017. The reason why you never see that happening is that prospects as good as him are always protected regardless of where they are in the minors. Anibal Sanchez, for instance, was protected after his season at Lowell. Ysla should be in the discussion; I was misled by his completely underwhelming season totals. He had a 5.40 ERA, 4.72 FIP with .394 BABIP, and 965 OPS allowed on June 1. Since then, a 2.77 ERA, 2.55 FIP with .267 BABIP, and .553 OPS allowed. However, his upside is set-up relief, and he's had a big reverse split this year (although that was new, and maybe it was all during the first two months). He strikes me as a guy who is likely to get picked and even more likely to be returned, so I wouldn't call him a serious omission, but he should definitely be added to the list of seven candidates for the final spots. I agree that Haley would be a a 40-man luxury, but maybe they have room for that. Oddly enough, he is protection against the O'Sullivan type you would sign and use in his role being too good, which is to say, someone who would get claimed the first time you needed to outright him back to Pawtucket. Sometimes you need a fungible guy for one start, and you want to save any potential comeback AAA veteran (e.g., next year's Rich Hill) for an opportunity to add him to the roster permanently.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Aug 12, 2016 12:11:23 GMT -5
I hope we hold on to Taz. The next manager will hopefully salvage what he's got left after JF ran him into the ground.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 12, 2016 12:35:16 GMT -5
Honestly, Luis Ax. Basabe is so far away that I can't see them adding him to the 40-man. He's in Low A - there's near-zero chance, imo, that he can perform well enough to even stash him in the majors right now. Luis Ysla (his omission above is a pretty big oversight, imo, as he strikes me as a pretty obvious add) and Kyle Martin jump out as the only 40-man adds I see, and maybe Henry Ramos if he re-signs. People here will hem and haw about Justin Haley not being protected and he might even get picked, but he strikes me as the kind of replacement-level/up-and-down guy you don't waste a 40-man spot on. Basabe could play defense in MLB right now, so he wouldn't be useless as a 25th man. He has star upside. If I'm the Braves or the Reds, I'd draft him in a heartbeat and "waste" a roster spot on him, which would have zero impact on the team in 2017. The reason why you never see that happening is that prospects as good as him are always protected regardless of where they are in the minors. Anibal Sanchez, for instance, was protected after his season at Lowell. Ysla should be in the discussion; I was misled by his completely underwhelming season totals. He had a 5.40 ERA, 4.72 FIP with .394 BABIP, and 965 OPS allowed on June 1. Since then, a 2.77 ERA, 2.55 FIP with .267 BABIP, and .553 OPS allowed. However, his upside is set-up relief, and he's had a big reverse split this year (although that was new, and maybe it was all during the first two months). He strikes me as a guy who is likely to get picked and even more likely to be returned, so I wouldn't call him a serious omission, but he should definitely be added to the list of seven candidates for the final spots. I agree that Haley would be a a 40-man luxury, but maybe they have room for that. Oddly enough, he is protection against the O'Sullivan type you would sign and use in his role being too good, which is to say, someone who would get claimed the first time you needed to outright him back to Pawtucket. Sometimes you need a fungible guy for one start, and you want to save any potential comeback AAA veteran (e.g., next year's Rich Hill) for an opportunity to add him to the roster permanently. The problem with adding Basabe to the 40 now is that you're giving him 3 years to get to MLB from High A. Could definitely happen, but since I've paid attention to this stuff (post-Sanchez - nice recall on that one, Eric), the only guys below AA they've protected have been Argenis Diaz off of a great winter in Hawaii and Drake Britton, and in the latter case, getting put on the 40 that year probably hurt him in the long run. But yeah, maybe I was a bit too bearish on that idea. I bet you they would protect Ysla before protecting Haley. If they were serious about Haley, they'd be getting a look at him in the bullpen rather than starting him, I think, given that's probably his MLB future.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 13, 2016 8:19:10 GMT -5
Haley with an eight inning shutout last night brings his era down below three. He's 7 - 3 in his stint at Pawtucket this season. At 25 he could be on a ML track so adding him to the 40 should be a consideration. They may be forced anyway, next season, when a pitcher us injured and to keep from going outside the org.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 14, 2016 22:36:59 GMT -5
I was skeptical that Deven Marrero was a DFA candidate until I just checked up on his line. His last multi-hit game was July 17. Since then he's hitting .130/.190/.204. He turns 26 in two weeks. He's now pushing 1000 plate appearances in Triple-A, with an OBP below .280 and a SLG under .300.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 15, 2016 7:23:27 GMT -5
I was skeptical that Deven Marrero was a DFA candidate until I just checked up on his line. His last multi-hit game was July 17. Since then he's hitting .130/.190/.204. He turns 26 in two weeks. He's now pushing 1000 plate appearances in Triple-A, with an OBP below .280 and a SLG under .300. Hernandez, and Dubon look much better, and they just drafted a shortstop. His fielding does not cover for his lack of bat. Maybe change of scenery helps him. Not to mentioned being blocked at the bigs with xb.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 21, 2016 1:28:27 GMT -5
Rutledge will have surgery per JF, which means he's not showing up in September and will clear waivers when he's DFA'd. That will give them a chance to look at Martin (or Haley) in September.
Upon further thought, Ramos should be among the fringe. And I think that given Elias's track record before this year, you really want to hang onto him through ST and try to DFA him then. And in fact there would be an MLB roster spot for him to start the year if Smith isn't ready, or anyone else gets hurt. If he then pitches well, you can trade him for something when he gets squeezed off the roster, and if he doesn't, he clears waivers.
The roster sure things:
SP (9) - Price, Porcello, Wright, E.Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Elias, Owens, Johnson, Haley RP (10) - Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes, Ross, Abad, Hembree, Kelly, Workman, Martin, N.Ramirez PP (16) - Leon, Vazquez; Ramirez, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Shaw, Sandoval, Holt; Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Young; Swihart, Moncada, Hernandez, Basabe
That leaves 3 spots for the ST roster, plus 1 or 2 guys you keep around and DFA when you sign one of the two free agents you plan on adding.
Candidates for the 3 + 2 spots:
Tavarez Ysla Ramos Waiver claim or low-level MLB FA (e.g., upside relief guy)
Marrero Brentz Holaday
None of the first three are guaranteed to be protected, and I think it's highly likely that they won't project all 3, which will leave them room to sign someone else to an MLB contract, or grab someone on a waiver claim.
If they protect all three, then Holaday is DFA'd when they set the rosters, and Brentz and Marrero are DFA'd when they sign FA's. If they protect two, then Holaday and Brentz are the first two guys who get DFA'd during the winter, and Marrero probably gets DA'd at some point in favor of a waiver claim or extra FA. If they protect just one, he probably survives another year in the system.
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Post by amfox1 on Sept 7, 2016 7:53:41 GMT -5
Updated as of 9/7
Currently 40 on 40-man roster.
-6 for 40-man FAs: Uehara, Tazawa, Ziegler, Hill, Ortiz, Hanigan (technically, the last two have options but neither will be back) +4 for 40-man adds: Smith, Workman, Sandoval, Swihart (I assume Rutledge will not be added back to the 40-man roster)
That puts the 40-man roster at 38, assuming the option for Buchholz is picked up (he may be traded in the offseason, but let's assume that the team keeps him for now)
-5 for likely 40-man nontenders at end of year: Abad, D.Marrero, Brentz (out of options), Elias (out of options), Holaday
Probable 40-man adds: Basabe, Martin, Haley
There's plenty of room and not many hard choices.
SP - Price, Porcello, E.Rodriguez, Pomeranz, Wright/Buchholz (AAA: Owens, Johnson, Haley) RP - Kimbrel, Kelly, Smith, Barnes, Ross, Hembree (out of options), Wright/Buchholz (AAA: Martin, Workman, N.Ramirez, Ro.Scott) PP - Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, H.Ramirez, Sandoval, Bradley, Jr., Benintendi, Moncada, Leon/C.Vazquez Bench - C.Vazquez/Leon, Holt, Young, Shaw (AAA: Swihart, M.Hernandez; A+: Basabe)
Based on the above, that leaves 36 on the 40-man roster, with no spots on the 25-man roster to fill. They could put Kelly and Moncada in AAA and mix-and-match Shaw/Ramirez/Sandoval at 1B/3B/DH, if they wanted to sign any free agents at DH or in the bullpen. Note that there is no guarantee that Smith, Sandoval or Swihart will be ready to start the 2017 season; the above assumes all are healthy.
At minimum, the Red Sox will have at least four spots on the 40-man which they can bolster through Rule 5, minor league FAs, DFAs or trades.
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Post by jmei on Sept 7, 2016 7:56:09 GMT -5
I'd be surprised (and displeased) if Abad is non-tendered.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 7, 2016 8:08:29 GMT -5
I'll keep beating that drum too. Since the trade, lefties are 2 for 20 with seven strikeouts against Abad. The only reason I'd be okay with them letting him go is if they make a conscious decision to go with a six-man bullpen as part of the base roster and carry an extra bench player rather than a LOOGY. And even then, he probably has enough trade value that he's worth tendering a contract.
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Post by Coreno on Sept 7, 2016 11:08:31 GMT -5
Glad that was already pointed out. Was surprised to see that statement as well. He's finally settling in a bit, too. Even though he's mostly been used in low leverage mop-up spots lately, its good to see him not getting knocked around. Hopefully he starts earning some trust back, emphasis on some. We don't need "all-or-nothing" John throwing him into the games biggest spots again.
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