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40 Man Roster, 2016 Edition
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Nov 10, 2016 16:31:00 GMT -5
I would waive Bryce Brentz, Williams Jerez, and Bryan Holaday to bring roster down to 35 and add the following 5 players. Justin Haley Austin Maddox Luis Ysla Kyle Martin Jantzen Witte or Jake Romanski Teddy Stankiewicz needs more time in Portland (AA). Not even close to the Majors. I saw him pitch 4 times last season and he so very inconsistent. I agree with the 5 moves to get to 35. Jerez should be outrighted at this point and Brentz is done. I wouldn't keep Maddox or Martin. I don't think either of them is that special and I would be shocked if either lasted a full bullpen season with another team. I would protect Tzu-Wei Lin though. He's learning to play the OF now and he already has an MLB future as a bench guy based on his defense, speed, and versatility alone. He goes into yet another offseason 30 lbs of muscle away from being a starting middle infielder. Too much potential to leave unprotected for an NL team to hide him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 11, 2016 7:13:13 GMT -5
Moved a thread started yesterday into this existing one.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 11, 2016 7:40:35 GMT -5
Romanski is kind of an interesting choice. He won't, and shouldn't be, protected. He has no power at all - he'd struggle to slug .300 in the majors. But he has a serious arm, he's a pretty good receiver, and he'll take a pitch. I could see him making to the majors at like 29, developing a reputation as a backup or someone's personal catcher, and sticking around the league for a few years. But he's not someone likely to be picked (teams tend to go into the season with a veteran backup catcher, and turn to minor leaguers only in injury situations), and he's not someone who you'd really sweat if someone did pick him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 12, 2016 22:03:55 GMT -5
They face a tremendous roster crunch a winter from now, so anyone added this winter who is borderline will have to be DFA'd then, and will be claimed. No one not on the roster now needs to be added. Ysla is probably the only guy with a significant chance of being taken and sticking, but a much likelier scenario is that you add him now and lose him a year from now on waivers.
The roster is currently 38. They could do nothing, or DFA Holaday (likeliest), or DFA him and Brentz (which would indicate that they're sure of adding a couple of waiver claims or low-level FA pitchers). If they go into the off-season at 37, they sign a reliever, a 1B or DH (1 or 2-year deal), and a platoon 3B (by which point they'd have to DFA Holaday, which is why I think they do it now).
After getting to 40, they then look into replacing Brentz and Marrero with pitchers with upside, from among the DFA'd and the FA's (major and minor) who are looking for a team to give them an MLB deal rather than a minor league deal with a ST invitation. You try hard to find and sign one guy you really like, and DFA Brentz (whom you are holding onto in case there's no one who interests you enough). If there's a second guy you like enough to DFA Marrero, you do that as well. But that's a higher bar; the odds of Marrero improving as a hitter and giving him some trade value are probably higher than the odds of this extra pitcher helping you. But it's an option if there are two guys you think might be the next Bronson Arroyo and you don't want to have to choose just one.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 13, 2016 20:59:13 GMT -5
Well, the roster is technically 39, but there's a rumor that Ortiz isn't going to be there come Spring Training. Holaday will be non-tendered the first week of December if he isn't DFA first. I thought there was a chance they'd non-tender Abad, but it sounds now like they're going to tender him a contract, at least. I think it's possible they don't protect anyone, but I think they'll protect Ysla. Brentz and Marrero seem like change-of-scenery candidates as well, so those spots could open up.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 18, 2016 10:23:26 GMT -5
For the record, I would protect Ysla and Martin. I don't think either will be stars, but I think both could be good enough to help the team as soon as next season (I thought Martin was good enough this season), both could stick if drafted, and the roster space is there. Both are better, or at least more valuable, than at least five guys currently on the 40-man. Like, I'm not sure that Ysla is "better" than Brentz, but there's a pretty clear role for Ysla. Brentz is the sort of player who is always available as a MLFA, and the team has three obvious starters plus Young and Holt as useful backups.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 18, 2016 10:30:35 GMT -5
For the record, I would protect Ysla and Martin. I don't think either will be stars, but I think both could be good enough to help the team as soon as next season (I thought Martin was good enough this season), both could stick if drafted, and the roster space is there. Both are better, or at least more valuable, than at least five guys currently on the 40-man. Like, I'm not sure that Ysla is "better" than Brentz, but there's a pretty clear role for Ysla. Brentz is the sort of player who is always available as a MLFA, and the team has three obvious starters plus Young and Holt as useful backups. Martin has allowed high BABIPs throughout his career: .320, .348, .329 as he moved from A+ to AA to AAA. It's a lot easier to strike guys out if you're willing to allow hard contact, and not allowing hard contact is such a basic skill that it's pretty much selected out. He hasn't shown it. I think that if they believed he could be an asset to the bullpen, we would have seen him last September. I see him as a replacement level emergency bullpen arm; his roster spot would be put to much better use with a waiver claim or upside FA (MLB or mlfa).
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 18, 2016 10:42:38 GMT -5
The roster spot is there though. I'd be willing to risk it on the fact the BABIP thing is correctable. If it isn't, DFAing him next year when there's more of a roster crunch (or beforehand if necessary) is no skin off. If he were a fastball-only type then I'd be really skeptical, but his change is legit, and I'm wary to give up on a two-pitch pitcher because he's flawed, especially when they have folks like Brentz and Marrero on the 40-man.
However, I agree with you that if the Red Sox felt the same as I then we'd have seen him in September.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 18, 2016 11:08:05 GMT -5
A theory I threw out there on the podcast that I'll toss in here (not sure if I had yet): If Abad had worked out better, we'd have seen Martin down the stretch instead of Scott. Idea is that the latter got the nod because there was a much better chance of him being on the playoff roster (and useful down the stretch for that matter) as the second-best LHRP than there was for Martin, who was already behind several other September call-up RPs like Kelly and Hembree in addition to the guys already there. If the second LHRP had been set, using innings to get a big-league look at Martin may have been more useful, but there was a chance they NEEDED Scott, whereas they weren't going to NEED Martin.
Just a thought. I otherwise generally agree with the "well, why didn't he come up in September then?" thought, which is why I have been projecting he won't be added.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 18, 2016 11:21:02 GMT -5
MiLB Roster Tracker @milb_Tracker 51 min. #RedSox have purchased the contracts of RHP Kyle Martin (@kylemartin32) and LHP Luis Ysla from the minors.
And William Cuevas has signed with the Tigers.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2016 11:25:41 GMT -5
Honestly, even if Martin is just a replacement-level right-handed reliever, having a few of those guys with options on your 40-man is pretty much a necessity, and Martin at least has more upside than the Willy Cuevases of the world. The BABIP is a fair point, but he also hasn't been particularly homer-prone (which is usually the hallmark of the Joe Blanton pitch-to-contact types), so I am cautiously optimistic.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 18, 2016 11:27:26 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 18, 2016 11:32:14 GMT -5
Ysla was a really good get for six weeks of Alejandro De Aza.
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 18, 2016 14:06:30 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox will lose Teddy Stankiewcz & Justin Haley if not protected
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Post by basbal24 on Nov 18, 2016 14:20:13 GMT -5
I can see losing haley To arizona
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 18, 2016 14:54:13 GMT -5
A theory I threw out there on the podcast that I'll toss in here (not sure if I had yet): If Abad had worked out better, we'd have seen Martin down the stretch instead of Scott. Idea is that the latter got the nod because there was a much better chance of him being on the playoff roster (and useful down the stretch for that matter) as the second-best LHRP than there was for Martin, who was already behind several other September call-up RPs like Kelly and Hembree in addition to the guys already there. If the second LHRP had been set, using innings to get a big-league look at Martin may have been more useful, but there was a chance they NEEDED Scott, whereas they weren't going to NEED Martin. Just a thought. I otherwise generally agree with the "well, why didn't he come up in September then?" thought, which is why I have been projecting he won't be added. I think that has to be it. I'll plead guilty to thinking the lack of a September recall meant they thought he gave up too much hard contact. We'll see if there are more interesting guys who get claimed on waivers or sign MLB deals after we've filled the roster to 40.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 18, 2016 15:58:43 GMT -5
Haley could get drafted and has an outside chance to stick, but it's hard to see - he's not an MLB starter, and if the Sox thought he had a chance to be a bullpen arm they've had plenty of opportunity to use him there. He's in the range where someone could've gotten a good report on him and give him a shot in spring training, though.
Stankiewicz isn't close right now.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 21, 2016 11:22:29 GMT -5
Agree with James. Haley is the one with the best chance of being drafted, but at the same time, I don't think you wind up that upset about it if you're Boston, as the chances he'd stick aren't super high, and even if he does he was behind so many other guys already on the roster.
Zero chance Stankiewicz gets picked - he doesn't have a major league pitch right now.
As a dark horse, I could see a team taking a flyer (or flier? I never remember which it's supposed to be) on Jamie Callahan after an excellent AFL stint. I don't think there's a chance he'd stick, but I could see a team wanting to bring him into camp for a couple weeks. Feels a little bit like a Ryan Pressly situation, except that Pressly had been in Portland that season.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 21, 2016 11:28:30 GMT -5
So maybe a little bit like Jason Garcia? Garcia's setbacks were health rather than performance, but seems like Callahan would be at a similar place development-wise. Callahan has always intrigued me. But like Garcia two years ago, stashing him on the major league roster for a season would be the absolute worst thing for his development. He needs reps.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 21, 2016 19:52:04 GMT -5
Nah. Garcia had barely even pitched in Low A, and the only reason the O's even knew about him was because the Red Sox pitched him on the road during Fall Instructs.
I say he's like Pressly in the sense that he's been a guy that has been interesting throughout his Sox career, but perhaps a scout who's seen him for years thinks there's one or two things he could tweak to take off, and he's coming off a great fall league (same could be said, by the way, of Haley in that latter respect, as he's dealing in the Dominican Winter League).
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Post by Mike Andrews on Nov 21, 2016 21:10:13 GMT -5
My prediction - Yankory Pimentel picked on a flyer and returned at the close of spring training.
Sent from my smart phone
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 22, 2016 10:53:19 GMT -5
One thing I've seen a lot the past few days I hadn't thought of - if rosters expand to 26, then the Rule 5 Draft could change drastically. Would be a lot easier to hide a guy all season.
If rosters expand to 26 in time, I would expect at least one Red Sox to be picked.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 22, 2016 11:12:19 GMT -5
One thing I've seen a lot the past few days I hadn't thought of - if rosters expand to 26, then the Rule 5 Draft could change drastically. Would be a lot easier to hide a guy all season. If rosters expand to 26 in time, I would expect at least one Red Sox to be picked. You mean one more than the one the Orioles pick?
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Post by mredsox89 on Nov 22, 2016 11:57:33 GMT -5
Do we really think that they'll pass the 26-man part of the CBA in the next two weeks? I think it will pass, I just don't see them finalizing the CBA or even agreeing in principle to parts of it by then
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 22, 2016 12:03:33 GMT -5
Given the low cost of a pick, I could see several teams grabbing a guy just in case.
EDIT: Just thought of this, but an extra roster spot also makes it a lot more likely the Red Sox can keep Heath Hembree.
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