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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2016 11:02:30 GMT -5
Tommy Layne MLB career: 122.2 IP, 3.30 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 3.83 xFIP vs RHH: .358 wOBA against vs LHH: .241 wOBA against Fernando Abad MLB career: 264.0 IP, 3.65 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 4.27 xFIP vs RHH: .324 wOBA against vs LHH: .302 wOBA against So I guess Abad is slightly better vs RHH than Layne and has a longer track record, but Layne seems to be the better LOOGY. I liked the move initially since it seemed low cost, but trading Layne and Light for what seems like at best a sideways move seems a little silly. Not that I think Pat Light is anything special either. Unless they saw something in Abad's batted ball profile. By using MLB career stats you allow Layne to start at age 27 but include bad mlb stats for Abad at 24, 25, 26, right? Does that help? Weren't all the stories about how he was pitching better this year? I said this when the trade was made, but when you're looking at LOOGY stats in a half season, the difference between Layne and Abad might have been one hit with unfortunate timing or a line drive with the bases loaded that was caught. We're talking about a 15-16 innings against LHB.
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Post by bosox81 on Aug 13, 2016 12:52:00 GMT -5
By using MLB career stats you allow Layne to start at age 27 but include bad mlb stats for Abad at 24, 25, 26, right? Does that help? Weren't all the stories about how he was pitching better this year? I said this when the trade was made, but when you're looking at LOOGY stats in a half season, the difference between Layne and Abad might have been one hit with unfortunate timing or a line drive with the bases loaded that was caught. We're talking about a 15-16 innings against LHB. Making trades based on SSS is the ultimate buy high.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 13, 2016 14:30:01 GMT -5
bwar's the last 3 years Abad 1 so far this year, .3 and 1.8, Layne .4 so far this year, .5 and .7. At the time of the trade Abad was worth 3.1 bwars over last 3 years and Layne was worth 1.6 bwars. They didn't make the trade based off of 15-16 innings. Over the last 3 years Abad was a better pitcher. So far it hasn't worked out, but the numbers back up the move. It seems Boston is were pitchers go to die lately!
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 13, 2016 14:39:52 GMT -5
“ evandrellich: As of this morning, it was “way too early” to tell if the Red Sox might be a destination for Jonathan Papelbon one source said. Shipping up?”
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2016 14:41:08 GMT -5
I really hate bWAR for pitchers in general, especially relief pitchers. And even more especially for LOOGYs, since it will be primarily based on how much the manager pitched him vs. RHB when he shouldn't be.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 13, 2016 14:52:52 GMT -5
“@bradfo: According source close to situation, Papelbon would welcome return to Boston. Prioritizing best spot to succeed for remainder of season”
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 13, 2016 15:48:30 GMT -5
Evan Drellich evandrellich 17s18 seconds ago Pablo Sandoval has lost 15 pounds, goes to Red Sox complex in Florida 5, 6 days a week. Sox will see him, Carson Smith when playing Rays
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Post by bosox81 on Aug 13, 2016 15:48:44 GMT -5
bwar's the last 3 years Abad 1 so far this year, .3 and 1.8, Layne .4 so far this year, .5 and .7. At the time of the trade Abad was worth 3.1 bwars over last 3 years and Layne was worth 1.6 bwars. They didn't make the trade based off of 15-16 innings. Over the last 3 years Abad was a better pitcher. So far it hasn't worked out, but the numbers back up the move. It seems Boston is were pitchers go to die lately! Do you usually prefer to use bwar or did you conveniently choose bwar over fwar? And even if we go by bwar, your calculations yield only a difference of .5 bwar per year (which should be less because it's only two months left). Not sure it's worth giving up Pat Light for such a negligible upgrade.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 13, 2016 15:56:07 GMT -5
bwar's the last 3 years Abad 1 so far this year, .3 and 1.8, Layne .4 so far this year, .5 and .7. At the time of the trade Abad was worth 3.1 bwars over last 3 years and Layne was worth 1.6 bwars. They didn't make the trade based off of 15-16 innings. Over the last 3 years Abad was a better pitcher. So far it hasn't worked out, but the numbers back up the move. It seems Boston is were pitchers go to die lately! Do you usually prefer to use bwar or did you conveniently choose bwar over fwar? And even if we go by bwar, your calculations yield only a difference of .5 bwar per year (which should be less because it's only two months left). Not sure it's worth giving up Pat Light for such a negligible upgrade. If you don't think Pat Light is worth .5 WAR a year it is. EDIT: Personal feeling. At <50 innings pitched, WAR is essentially useless. At around 50 to maybe 400 I prefer fWAR for predictive value because FIP is more telling the RAA. At over 400 I prefer bWAR because those divergences between FIP and RAA get to the point where they're likely more than noise.
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Post by bosox81 on Aug 13, 2016 16:16:52 GMT -5
Do you usually prefer to use bwar or did you conveniently choose bwar over fwar? And even if we go by bwar, your calculations yield only a difference of .5 bwar per year (which should be less because it's only two months left). Not sure it's worth giving up Pat Light for such a negligible upgrade. If you don't think Pat Light is worth .5 WAR a year it is. EDIT: Personal feeling. At <50 innings pitched, WAR is essentially useless. At around 50 to maybe 400 I prefer fWAR for predictive value because FIP is more telling the RAA. At over 400 I prefer bWAR because those divergences between FIP and RAA get to the point where they're likely more than noise. The main point is that, like iars said above, this was just a sideways move. It seems DDo thought Abad was a definite upgrade over Layne based on the few innings this season pitched in the AL Central, which is buying high based on SSS. Even if we go back three years, Abad was terrible just last season and excellent the season before. Just shows you how unpredictable relievers are. ADD: And based on your feelings on bwar vs fwar, Layne takes the edge over Abad the last three years (about 150 IP).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 13, 2016 17:43:47 GMT -5
bwar's the last 3 years Abad 1 so far this year, .3 and 1.8, Layne .4 so far this year, .5 and .7. At the time of the trade Abad was worth 3.1 bwars over last 3 years and Layne was worth 1.6 bwars. They didn't make the trade based off of 15-16 innings. Over the last 3 years Abad was a better pitcher. So far it hasn't worked out, but the numbers back up the move. It seems Boston is were pitchers go to die lately! Do you usually prefer to use bwar or did you conveniently choose bwar over fwar? And even if we go by bwar, your calculations yield only a difference of .5 bwar per year (which should be less because it's only two months left). Not sure it's worth giving up Pat Light for such a negligible upgrade. I always use bwar, check my post if you want to.
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atzar
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Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Aug 13, 2016 18:15:57 GMT -5
Sharp first inning for Buch. Hit the mitt with nearly everything.
Edit: Not quite as crisp in the second, though he got squeezed on a couple of pitches to the first batter. Double play helped.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Aug 13, 2016 18:29:52 GMT -5
Its kind of amazing that Buch and Rodriguez seem to have figured it out immediately after trading for Pomeranz. How convenient. But hey, I'll take all the good SP performances that we can get.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Aug 13, 2016 19:24:04 GMT -5
Still struggling to put guys away with two strikes.
Adequate for a spot start. Can't really complain.
Need the offense and bullpen to step up now.
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Post by dnfl333 on Aug 13, 2016 19:31:17 GMT -5
Its kind of amazing that Buch and Rodriguez seem to have figured it out immediately after trading for Pomeranz. How convenient. But hey, I'll take all the good SP performances that we can get. Erod maybe. CBuc is done. At best the player can give you an inning or two in relief going forward. He is done! It's a fact and the facts are undisputed
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Post by bookiemetts on Aug 13, 2016 19:41:14 GMT -5
Still struggling to put guys away with two strikes. Adequate for a spot start. Can't really complain. Need the offense and bullpen to step up now. Yeah I'll take it for a spot start. Better than another O'Sullivan outing
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 13, 2016 19:44:49 GMT -5
Neon Leon, at it again...
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Aug 13, 2016 19:49:14 GMT -5
Andrew Benintendi is extremely good at baseball. Wow.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Aug 13, 2016 19:54:48 GMT -5
I'm not as pissy about that Bourn chopper anymore.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 13, 2016 19:55:04 GMT -5
Now the pressure is on our rock solid bullpen yet again.
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Post by doctorduck21 on Aug 13, 2016 19:56:25 GMT -5
Weird bounce there but I'll take it. This Arizona pitcher seems talented but that was a poor way to react to a bad bounce. Let's see if he keeps his composure
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Aug 13, 2016 20:21:20 GMT -5
Brockstar!
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 13, 2016 20:33:40 GMT -5
Neon Leon, at it again... I would note that Leon's hot streak has now gone on for the catching equivalent of 1/3 of a season. This is starting to become more than just a JBJ hot streak. The amazing part has been his offensive consistency -- he's been a positive contributor in almost every game he's played. How long until the organization thinks that "hey, we have to start considering this guy in our future plans?" Or is it past that point already? All of a sudden the Vazquez/Swihart tangle just inherited an extra string of spaghetti.
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Post by bosox81 on Aug 13, 2016 20:39:31 GMT -5
Nice play Pedey!
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Aug 13, 2016 20:39:52 GMT -5
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