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Boston Celtics 2016-17 Season Discussion
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 8, 2017 16:19:40 GMT -5
Almost half of Smart's field goal attempts are three-pointers, which means his raw FG% is a little misleading. He still needs to shoot more efficiently, but a .444 eFG% (his mark this year) is merely bad and not terrible. DeMar DeRozan has a career .457 eFG%, for instance. Hell, Julius Randle has a career .456 eFG%. Wow, talk about cherry-picking stats. You wanna compare shooting you use TS%, this year Smart is .488, DeRozan is .550 and Randle is .549. eFG% only makes Smart look good because DeRozan and Randle don't shoot many three's. Coming into his big game Smart was shooting 28% from three point land, which his big game raised it to 31%. He shouldn't be taking half his shots from deep. Smart has never had a FG% above 40% and he's never had a PER even close to league average. Smart should model his game after DeRozan. That's the type of player he looked like in College. A guy that made a living going to basket and was elite at getting to line.
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Post by jmei on Jan 8, 2017 17:06:11 GMT -5
The only difference between eFG% and TS% is that TS% folds in free throws. It doesn't really change the analysis that much. Like I said, it's bad but not terrible. DeRozan is at .531 career, Randle is .502, and there are plenty of guards in the .500 range who are useful players because they add value in other ways. Bruce Bowen, for instance, is at .508 for his career. Some more contemporary examples are Iman Shumpert (.494 career), Brandon Jennings (.498 career), or Raymond Felton (.497 career). Hell, Rondo is at .500 over his career.
It is simple math that three pointers are more efficient than two pointers. A 31% three-point percentage is bad, but it equates to a 46.5% two-point percentage, which is perfectly acceptable from a good defender and passer. Smart is still inconsistent shooting the ball, but he's shown flashes of being an average-or-better shooter from distance. He's not some irredeemable Josh Smith-esque chucker. He should continue to shoot it (though he admittedly could take a few fewer shots per game).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 9, 2017 5:32:32 GMT -5
Is there anyone in the draft from Europe or college that's a impact superstar for the potential number one pick this year does anyone know?
Something officially worth monitoring now that it's almost halfway into the season and the Nets are officially the worst team in the NBA.
This is the biggest question the Celtics hold this entire year, nevermind the season. Everything is tied to what they can get out of this pick, whether it's a player through trade or draft.
It won't bother me either direction they take. Just take the best player available. My gut tells me that's Cousins but I have no idea what's in the draft.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 9, 2017 8:21:22 GMT -5
Is there anyone in the draft from Europe or college that's a impact superstar for the potential number one pick this year does anyone know? Something officially worth monitoring now that it's almost halfway into the season and the Nets are officially the worst team in the NBA. This is the biggest question the Celtics hold this entire year, nevermind the season. Everything is tied to what they can get out of this pick, whether it's a player through trade or draft. It won't bother me either direction they take. Just take the best player available. My gut tells me that's Cousins but I have no idea what's in the draft. No there is not an International player in this years draft that is predicted in the top 10 or so. The odds on favorite for #1 is Markelle Fultz PG, most of the mocks have PG dominating the top 5. So when it comes to the future core I would expect one of the top current C's guards to be traded.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 9, 2017 8:32:51 GMT -5
The Celtics are still rebuilding because they can, as has been said. It may be a matter of semantics just because they are pretty good right now but they are not competing for much more than a payoff series win, big deal. They have a decent core of hard working guys right now but the team that will be pushing Lebron and company is a year or 2 away and will look much different than the current C's. I would go with this years Nets pick and be open to trading 2018 depending on how stocked that draft is and how bad the Nets are next year. Of course this depends on what Danny can get back in a trade. 3 top 3 draft picks added to this current team should propel them for a long run. But take a look at Philly and Minn. 2 teams loaded with top picks who have yet to do it. Although I expect them both to be very good next year. The best way to go is to have a solid veteran team infused with developing young guys, which the C's should have. Best of both worlds but it will take some time to compete with Lebron.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 9, 2017 8:50:02 GMT -5
PG Frank Ntilikina is 12 by Ford, 11 by DraftExpress, 10 by The Sporting News, 9 by Bleacher Report and 9 by CBS.
With a lot of PGs (and some even think Monk might need to be a scoring 1) he may have to distinguish himself to get into the top 10 once the draft rolls around
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Post by texs31 on Jan 9, 2017 9:00:58 GMT -5
I hate to harp on this (and yet I keep doing so) but the 3 top draft picks will NOT be purely additive. If the picks (and Zizic and Yabusele, for that matter) are what we hope/want them to be, they will be replacing guys currently on the team. Some may replace core guys. In this year's draft, I see only Giles (assuming he gets himself back in the mix) as the only guy who would replace someone that we wouldn't miss. Without a better jump shot, J Brown will need less minutes from Crowder or 1 of the guards to get more PT (ie he won't just replace Jerebko). And, if the pick is Tatum/Jackson, same thing applies.
Eventually, we'll be seeing a consolidation move or a move that takes a current core player and pushes his value into the future by trading him for picks (less likely). Of course, this changes if an injury happens to one of the core (or worse, Danny let's one go via Free Agency)
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 9, 2017 10:58:26 GMT -5
Marcus Smart is not a good shooter but he's improved. He's actually pretty solid as a catch and shoot guy from the corner. He's terrible as a pull up off the dribble shooter from the top. From recent quotes he seems to be learning shot selection is important. My thing with Marcus is he's on an upward trend overall in his development. I'm not overly concerned with the numbers as he's inconsistent still but you can see it in his game and the flashes get louder. This is good for two reasons:
1. It gives us hope he can develop and help he team.
2. It gives another team the same thought so he may get better trade return.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 9, 2017 10:59:28 GMT -5
Looks highly unlikely Cousins is dealt. They are competing for the 8 seed and he says he wants to stay in Sacramento. Recent report has them offering him a 200m extension as soon as they are able.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 9, 2017 11:07:57 GMT -5
I hate to harp on this (and yet I keep doing so) but the 3 top draft picks will NOT be purely additive. If the picks (and Zizic and Yabusele, for that matter) are what we hope/want them to be, they will be replacing guys currently on the team. Some may replace core guys. In this year's draft, I see only Giles (assuming he gets himself back in the mix) as the only guy who would replace someone that we wouldn't miss. Without a better jump shot, J Brown will need less minutes from Crowder or 1 of the guards to get more PT (ie he won't just replace Jerebko). And, if the pick is Tatum/Jackson, same thing applies. Eventually, we'll be seeing a consolidation move or a move that takes a current core player and pushes his value into the future by trading him for picks (less likely). Of course, this changes if an injury happens to one of the core (or worse, Danny let's one go via Free Agency) Yes of course, but the idea is these players are either better or they are just as good and allow you to flip the other players for upgrades. If they add Fulz now they have a dynamic scoring tandem with him and Thomas. Fultz will be able to guard 2s and probably some wings with his size and length. That allows the team to deal Bradley, Smart, Crowder or Brown in a package to upgrade elsewhere. Fultz because of his size and shooting ability is probably the best guy the Celtics could get. A healthy Giles or Ingram are nice options as well but I want nothing to do with a Jackson who is a great prospect but can't shoot. Ball is shooting well but its kind of a surprise. Then hopefully they can get ride of the Jerebko, KO and Johnson tandem and get someone who can rebound and play defense down low.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 9, 2017 20:42:51 GMT -5
What about Markkanen? I haven't watched him, but that size and stats remind me of the Porzingod.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 9, 2017 21:52:17 GMT -5
What about Markkanen? I haven't watched him, but that size and stats remind me of the Porzingod. Intriguing prospect but the C's will be picking in the top 3 and he would be a reach as he is projected as a later lottery pick, 7-10.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 9, 2017 22:10:24 GMT -5
The C's are ranked #5 in this weeks ESPN power ranking. Although I would disagree that they are the 5th best team in the NBA right now that is pretty good considering the assets they have to look forward to. It will be interesting to see what Danny does because he has the tools to make the C's very good for a long time with some wise moves and a little bit of luck.
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Post by telluricrook on Jan 10, 2017 2:29:30 GMT -5
Brooklyn might have the worst record in the NBA next season as well and it is still unlikely that the Celtics will have a single #1 pick out of those!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 10, 2017 22:00:31 GMT -5
Is there anyone in the draft from Europe or college that's a impact superstar for the potential number one pick this year does anyone know? Something officially worth monitoring now that it's almost halfway into the season and the Nets are officially the worst team in the NBA. This is the biggest question the Celtics hold this entire year, nevermind the season. Everything is tied to what they can get out of this pick, whether it's a player through trade or draft. It won't bother me either direction they take. Just take the best player available. My gut tells me that's Cousins but I have no idea what's in the draft. No there is not an International player in this years draft that is predicted in the top 10 or so. The odds on favorite for #1 is Markelle Fultz PG, most of the mocks have PG dominating the top 5. So when it comes to the future core I would expect one of the top current C's guards to be traded. Ugh this annoys the living crap out of me if this is the case. The Celtics best part about their team is the guard position between Smart, IT, Rozier, and Bradley. They should be looking to extend these guys like IT, not drafting yet another guard. Bah trade the pic. Trade both pics for Cousins or Anthony Davis.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 10, 2017 22:03:11 GMT -5
It also annoys the crap out of me that the Celtics seem like they have beaten both Toronto and Cleveland a total of maybe once in the past 2 years. Like they can't even run into a lucky win against either one of these teams.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 10, 2017 22:06:40 GMT -5
The Celtics had a 5 point lead, leading the Raptors 100-95 with 5 minutes left to go. They let Toronto score 19 points while the Celtics score 6 total points the rest of the way. So frustrating.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 10, 2017 22:18:50 GMT -5
Saw an interesting comparison of the first 3 years of Lowry vs 3 of Smart. Lowry a much better overall shooter but Smart better from 3. Smart close or better in other primary stats.
Not that I'm saying Smart is going to be Lowry but I had forgotten how slow a start to his career KL had.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 11, 2017 0:22:21 GMT -5
No there is not an International player in this years draft that is predicted in the top 10 or so. The odds on favorite for #1 is Markelle Fultz PG, most of the mocks have PG dominating the top 5. So when it comes to the future core I would expect one of the top current C's guards to be traded. Ugh this annoys the living crap out of me if this is the case. The Celtics best part about their team is the guard position between Smart, IT, Rozier, and Bradley. They should be looking to extend these guys like IT, not drafting yet another guard. Bah trade the pic. Trade both pics for Cousins or Anthony Davis. Not going to happen. Cousins is not on market and neither is Davis. The new reports seem to shoot down any Cousins trade for this year, if not for a while. So you have to take best player available and go from there.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 11, 2017 0:26:36 GMT -5
It also annoys the crap out of me that the Celtics seem like they have beaten both Toronto and Cleveland a total of maybe once in the past 2 years. Like they can't even run into a lucky win against either one of these teams. They can't rebound and it kills them against those teams. They were out rebounded by 17 tonight, with Toronto having a plus 11 in offensive rebounds. They can't beat those teams until they get a rebounding big.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 11, 2017 0:40:32 GMT -5
PG Frank Ntilikina is 12 by Ford, 11 by DraftExpress, 10 by The Sporting News, 9 by Bleacher Report and 9 by CBS. With a lot of PGs (and some even think Monk might need to be a scoring 1) he may have to distinguish himself to get into the top 10 once the draft rolls around Ford new mock has him going #6 and NBADRAFT.NET has him going #4.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 11, 2017 0:53:28 GMT -5
The thing that stinks is this year has players that we could really use, but they are lower in draft. If we only had another 1st round pick or two this year. We could go after players like Edrice Adebayo, Robert Williams, Ivan Rabb and Marques Bolden.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 11, 2017 3:16:59 GMT -5
Ugh this annoys the living crap out of me if this is the case. The Celtics best part about their team is the guard position between Smart, IT, Rozier, and Bradley. They should be looking to extend these guys like IT, not drafting yet another guard. Bah trade the pic. Trade both pics for Cousins or Anthony Davis. Not going to happen. Cousins is not on market and neither is Davis. The new reports seem to shoot down any Cousins trade for this year, if not for a while. So you have to take best player available and go from there. I'll believe that when I don't see a trade.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 11, 2017 9:08:39 GMT -5
Cousins would really have to hate it there. Under the new CBS, Cousins next deal could be 5 yrs/219Mn. He can't get close to that elsewhere.
No idea why NO would trade Davis. He's a good guy. A superstar. They'll be able to add a potential star in this draft. They still have Hield. That has the potential of a pretty good top 3 (though I have some reservations about Hield). We'll see if they try to keep Holiday as well.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 11, 2017 10:21:13 GMT -5
No there is not an International player in this years draft that is predicted in the top 10 or so. The odds on favorite for #1 is Markelle Fultz PG, most of the mocks have PG dominating the top 5. So when it comes to the future core I would expect one of the top current C's guards to be traded. Ugh this annoys the living crap out of me if this is the case. The Celtics best part about their team is the guard position between Smart, IT, Rozier, and Bradley. They should be looking to extend these guys like IT, not drafting yet another guard. Bah trade the pic. Trade both pics for Cousins or Anthony Davis. Sure the C' do need a big but if the top of the draft has great guards with greater potential than what you have now then that's what you take. Zizic may just be the big they need, hopefully he is stateside next year, it will take time but any pick will. The new CBA just made it harder for Danny to make the big trade or sign a FA to make this team alot better soon. Cousins and Davis aren't going anywhere. So be happy that the C's are as good as they are, entertaining at the least and worth rooting for. Add in the top picks from the Nets and a potential star big in Noel, then you have the makings of a championship team for the long run. In the short run they wont really compete with the Cavs anyway.
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