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Boston Celtics 2016-17 Season Discussion
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 11, 2017 11:22:30 GMT -5
The tide is always changing so you never know but right now that super star trade isn't looking likely. Does it make sense to trade both nets picks and players for a guy like Butler? I say no. You might be able to draft that guy and not give up the players.
I get the guards are the best part of their team but Avery Bradley is starting to get over-rated. His offense is greatly improved and he's shooting 41% but guess what he's hurt again and his defense hasn't just fallen off it's gone off a cliff. His defensive versatility is lacking. With the way Smart is improving they may be better with IT, Smart and Fultz. Fultz has superstar potential. Bradley has a PER of 16 in his best year offensively. Drafting a guy like Fultz then flipping Bradley for a low post player may make most sense. Bradley for Kosta Koufos under that situation could be good for both teams.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 11, 2017 12:26:11 GMT -5
FWIW,
I can't find the source, so I understand the value placed on it, but there was commentary by an "insider" that around the league, Bradley was considered to have the most value of any Celtics player. Of course, that was almost a month ago, before IT added to his legendary status. But still, gotta believe you should be able to get more for AB (depending on when you trade him) then Kosta Koufos.
I'd also add that this defensive statistics (and, therefore, win shares and/or PER) are going to be impacted by the team performance as well (and, yes, playing next to IT). I think those in the know give him more credit for his defense than his statistics would let on.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 11, 2017 13:58:47 GMT -5
Not sure how you can be down on Bradley because of PER and think Smart is a better current option. Smarts PER is way lower than Bradley. Bradley just keeps getting better. I would trade him, but not for Koufos. I don't think I would trade Bradley for Koufos and Kings first round pick this year.
I have to think Sixers are playing Noel to trade him, it just makes sense. I try and make that trade. I wouldn't even think about trading Bradley till after the draft, if at all.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 11, 2017 14:30:26 GMT -5
If I'm Philly, Smart isn't the right option (I guess in lieu of nothing, sure). If there plan is to have Simmons as their Point Forward (or big point guard, or whatever), I would think they'd want shooters/defenders on the floor. Sure, Smart is the latter but definitely not the former. For them, hitting in the lottery and getting Fultz (who can shoot and be a secondary ball handler) and, say Malik Monk could be huge.
I saw an interesting non-Celtic proposal (unlikely but made so much sense). The basics were Noel and unprotected 2017 pick for C.J. McCollum (the 2017 picking having less value since, you'd think, the addition of CJM (and Simmons) would move them out of the top 5 heading into the lottery. There would be some other things that had to be dealt with given the challenges of trading a player who just signed an extension off of his rookie deal but the article said Philly could make it happen.
Doesn't help our situation, obviously, but I DO think THAT is the type of guard Philly needs (and then they could pair him up with a defender at the other guard position). Not Smart as much (who, outside of his defensive contributions, really does much better with the ball in his hands).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 11, 2017 15:20:50 GMT -5
I'm not trading Smart for Noel. My best offer for Noel would be a late first and Rozzier. Noel is young and has great upside, but he's going to be a free agent and with the cap increases he's going to get a big offer. If this was the old times when restricted free agents didn't get crazy offers his value would be a lot more in my book. He's also coming off an injury and you'd have him for a couple months before having to decide if you want to give him big money. I think they would take Smart in two seconds. Might not be best fit, but he would be a great bench piece at worst for them.
The rumor for CJM is a pipedream. Sounds like a Philly fans dream. He's a great young player signed long-term. His value is sky high right now. You could offer Portland two top 5 picks and Noel and Portland most likely turns that down. Fultz is great, but even if he pans out, will he be better than CJM? Nevermind if the pick isn't #1.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 11, 2017 16:37:45 GMT -5
Sorry was not trying to say Smart is better than Bradley. But the team may be better off trading one of Bradley or IT and I think Thomas is too good offensively to do that. I understand defensive numbers and PER aren't the end all and be all but we make reference to things in short posts to make a point. Bradley and Thomas together on the court is a defensive liability. Bradley isn't a great one on one defender and never truly has been. His overall defense had slipped but his 6'3 small frame doesn't match well with our 5'9 guy. However, Smart and Fultz can both guard multiple spots. Combined with Bradleys trade value I think dealing him makes the most sense.
Koufos was brought up because he's signed for multiple more years at low dollars and fits a need on the team. He could really flourish in his role under Stevens. Trades in the NBA are tricky. Bradley will be on a 8m expiring contract... what do you expect to get for him?
I'm talking about after he draft btw not now. I wouldn't trade for Noel now unless it's incredibly cheap. Sure it would be nice to see how he fits but not that nice that you give up too much for him. I'd basically swap Rosier for him and that won't get it done.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 11, 2017 16:46:51 GMT -5
I'm not trading Smart for Noel. My best offer for Noel would be a late first and Rozzier. Noel is young and has great upside, but he's going to be a free agent and with the cap increases he's going to get a big offer. If this was the old times when restricted free agents didn't get crazy offers his value would be a lot more in my book. He's also coming off an injury and you'd have him for a couple months before having to decide if you want to give him big money. I think they would take Smart in two seconds. Might not be best fit, but he would be a great bench piece at worst for them. The rumor for CJM is a pipedream. Sounds like a Philly fans dream. He's a great young player signed long-term. His value is sky high right now. You could offer Portland two top 5 picks and Noel and Portland most likely turns that down. Fultz is great, but even if he pans out, will he be better than CJM? Nevermind if the pick isn't #1. If Fultz pans out, you're talking a much better player than CJM... CJ is a great scorer who sucks on defense and doesn't add much in the other areas. He can still get better but he's in the middle of a hot streak right now. CJM isn't some all around super star. He's like Corey McGetty. I'd take him on my team no doubt but let's not get carried away with what he is.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 11, 2017 17:50:16 GMT -5
It definitely wasn't a rumor. It was a suggestion based on the following:
1. Portland went all in on this team and they are NOT good. Dame and CJM are horrible, defensively, together (their assertion, not mine). 2. They have little to no flexibility to improve 3. ET's benefit as a ball handler is not handling the ball (which is where his value comes from) with the 1 of the Dame/CJM being in the lineup most times.
Because it wasn't a rumor, I didn't bother to come up with an equal trade. Just referenced the highlights to get the point across.
Point is, you can have 2 young 20+ scorers signed long term but if it isn't working (and with few options to fix it) you need to explore other options. That's all.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 12, 2017 0:20:28 GMT -5
Sorry was not trying to say Smart is better than Bradley. But the team may be better off trading one of Bradley or IT and I think Thomas is too good offensively to do that. I understand defensive numbers and PER aren't the end all and be all but we make reference to things in short posts to make a point. Bradley and Thomas together on the court is a defensive liability. Bradley isn't a great one on one defender and never truly has been. His overall defense had slipped but his 6'3 small frame doesn't match well with our 5'9 guy. However, Smart and Fultz can both guard multiple spots. Combined with Bradleys trade value I think dealing him makes the most sense. Koufos was brought up because he's signed for multiple more years at low dollars and fits a need on the team. He could really flourish in his role under Stevens. Trades in the NBA are tricky. Bradley will be on a 8m expiring contract... what do you expect to get for him? I'm talking about after he draft btw not now. I wouldn't trade for Noel now unless it's incredibly cheap. Sure it would be nice to see how he fits but not that nice that you give up too much for him. I'd basically swap Rosier for him and that won't get it done. I agree Bradley and Thomas don't work well defensively. Sure Smart and Thomas work better defensively, but they don't work that well offensively. I just think both Thomas and Smart need the ball to be effective. That's why Bradley is great he doesn't need the ball. There really isn't a match on this team that works perfectly. If that's all you can get for Bradley I don't trade him. I have real doubts about Smart improving his shot. I also think you can get a lot more for Bradley than that. Like Koufos and the Kings late lottery to mid first round pick if you get Fultz and want to move Bradley. I just thinking that Smart might be the guy to move, but what's his value? Call me crazy but I'm higher on Rozzier than Smart. Very similar players, Smart is the better defender, but I think Rozzier is the more complete player.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 12, 2017 0:44:32 GMT -5
I'm not trading Smart for Noel. My best offer for Noel would be a late first and Rozzier. Noel is young and has great upside, but he's going to be a free agent and with the cap increases he's going to get a big offer. If this was the old times when restricted free agents didn't get crazy offers his value would be a lot more in my book. He's also coming off an injury and you'd have him for a couple months before having to decide if you want to give him big money. I think they would take Smart in two seconds. Might not be best fit, but he would be a great bench piece at worst for them. The rumor for CJM is a pipedream. Sounds like a Philly fans dream. He's a great young player signed long-term. His value is sky high right now. You could offer Portland two top 5 picks and Noel and Portland most likely turns that down. Fultz is great, but even if he pans out, will he be better than CJM? Nevermind if the pick isn't #1. If Fultz pans out, you're talking a much better player than CJM... CJ is a great scorer who sucks on defense and doesn't add much in the other areas. He can still get better but he's in the middle of a hot streak right now. CJM isn't some all around super star. He's like Corey McGetty. I'd take him on my team no doubt but let's not get carried away with what he is. Sure Fultz could be better, but chances Philly pick is high enough to get him are very slim at this point. Chances are that pick is around #5. The point is Portland isn't rebuilding so you don't trade a guy that's close to his prime years playing at a high level, that's signed long-term, for a chance to get a better player. A player that could take years to develop and then bolt town if he turns into a star. CJM is averaging 23.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1 steal and .6 blocks a game, while shooting well over 40% from deep. Sure he's not great at D, but he's young and keeps getting better. Raised PER from 17.7 last year to 21 this year. In my book he's a top 30-40 player, that keeps getting better. An elite shooter at a time where shooting is very important. I take it your talking about Corey Maggette? He was a good player, I think CJM is better. He's forced to play SG, when he'd be better at defending PGs. Players can improve D, a lot of time it's just about effort. Remember Pierce? He didn't become a great defender until the big three got to town.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 12, 2017 1:11:13 GMT -5
It definitely wasn't a rumor. It was a suggestion based on the following: 1. Portland went all in on this team and they are NOT good. Dame and CJM are horrible, defensively, together (their assertion, not mine). 2. They have little to no flexibility to improve 3. ET's benefit as a ball handler is not handling the ball (which is where his value comes from) with the 1 of the Dame/CJM being in the lineup most times. Because it wasn't a rumor, I didn't bother to come up with an equal trade. Just referenced the highlights to get the point across. Point is, you can have 2 young 20+ scorers signed long term but if it isn't working (and with few options to fix it) you need to explore other options. That's all. Portland was so stupid this past offseason. The contracts they gave Crabbe, Turner and Leonard were just horrible. Those guys combined have never had a PER in a single season that was even league average and they signed them to what 200 million total? Think about that for a second, not one of the 3 of them has ever had a season which was even average by PER standards. As much as Danny drives me crazy by not going for it. I just love knowing I can trust him to be smart and not destroy the teams future. Portland should have had a great future, but now they don't because owner didn't want to lose bench players for nothing. I loved Turner, we miss him this year, but did there GM watch any Celtic games? In my opinion there GM needs to be fired. Why in the world did he think he needed to spend all his money in one offseason? So he could way overpay his bench players? I hated to lose Sullinger for nothing, but it was better than giving him 20 million a year. So I can understand the logic in making a trade, but the top 5 in this draft doesn't fit with what they need unless Giles can rise to top 5.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 12, 2017 8:43:25 GMT -5
I said this way back when the C's put the big 3 together and I will say it again now when people were questioning their ability to play D. Defense is about desire, especially for guards and wings. If they have the athleticism to be in the NBA they have the ability to play D. That may not be totally true about bigs as they have to have more instincts in protecting the rim and blocking or altering shots. The thing is with many stars who are expected to score they are putting forth more effort on the offensive end and don't have the focus and energy to do it on both ends. Often also because it is not and has not been demanded of them ever, they have always been scorers at every level. Allen and Pierce both became better defensive players when they were all put together and played a more balanced offensive game sharing the ball. Brad Stevens I believe will always demand a high level of defensive pressure so it is a very good environment for young stars to develop with veterans who play that way in the system. It does make me wonder about this years C's not playing great D, are there injuries that are hampering players athleticism. Like Crowder who has not been the same this year and has had ankle issues. When it comes to IT he has both his height and the expectations on the offensive end keeping him from being an elite defensive player. Which leads me to the belief that a few years down the road a guard tandem of Smart and Fultz could be very good, with a little luck of course. Once again I will state what should be obvious by now. Developing 19 year olds into NBA stars takes time, just take a look at Minnesota. They have some great young players who are going to be stars but at the moment don't know how to win yet. The C's are pretty good and should be for a while but the really good team that we are all hoping for could be years down the road unless Danny can get lucky. And as has been said before, the new CBA is going to make that difficult. Does anybody know the ramifications of trading for Cousins now that he has signed the big deal?
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Post by texs31 on Jan 12, 2017 8:57:12 GMT -5
To be clear, he hasn't (and can't) sign the big deal until the offseason.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 12, 2017 10:21:39 GMT -5
I agree that for a lot of players defense is about desire but some are just dumb and incapable of being good defenders. Kyrie Ivring is this type of player imo... he's a bad defender but very capable and you see him step it up when he feels he needs to.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 12, 2017 10:23:31 GMT -5
Smart I think can be more valuable than Bradley because of his defensive ability. The guy can be very useful guarding everyone on the court
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 12, 2017 10:31:35 GMT -5
I'm not married to Koufos just used him as an example of a player type and someone who could fit both scheme and salary.
Team building is tricky so if you add a guy like Fultz another guard had to go and it's better to get something than lose them for nothing. Koufos is less valuable than Bradley but he may be more valuable for the Celtics at that point if they have Bradley, IT, Smart, Rosier and Fultz.... it's not easy to make trades that work so a trade like that would be more a decision that "we aren't going to pay Bradley because we are going to pay the other guys so let's trade the asset rather than lose him for nothing".
Anyways, let's not focus on Koufos it's more about the overall strategy than anything else.
I agree Smart will never shoot as well as Bradley but he doesn't need to. He's better with the ball in his hands but he'd be the 3rd guard and his ball handling would be valuable. Plus, he's really developing into a solid corner 3 guy and he's really developing a great driving game. He's not a finished product but where was Bradleys game at Smarts age?
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 12, 2017 10:38:07 GMT -5
Developing 19 year olds into NBA stars takes time, just take a look at Minnesota. They have some great young players who are going to be stars but at the moment don't know how to win yet. The C's are pretty good and should be for a while but the really good team that we are all hoping for could be years down the road unless Danny can get lucky. And as has been said before, the new CBA is going to make that difficult. Does anybody know the ramifications of trading for Cousins now that he has signed the big deal? There is a decent chance this is a long term build towards a championship. Meaning there isn't a good trade to be had so the next core is drafted and developed. It's not a bad situation. Brown and Smart are already here developing and they can add a couple more high end picks. The advantage they will have over the teams like Philly and Minny are they have a winning environment and good veterans to learn from. Plus, veterans like IT and Crowder (Bradley if not traded) can still be around in 3-6 years. Horford will be at the tail end but could age well and his presence has a leader could be huge. I for one at ready for a longer road.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 12, 2017 10:42:09 GMT -5
Sorry for all the posts but I'm sitting in a hospital waiting area....
I just wanted to throw a shout out to Isaiah Thomas... my god that guy is a stud.... if his shooting from deep this year is the new norm, the guy is going to have a nice run here as a top scorer in this league.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 12, 2017 11:12:02 GMT -5
Hope everything is okay
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 12, 2017 12:54:33 GMT -5
I agree that for a lot of players defense is about desire but some are just dumb and incapable of being good defenders. Kyrie Ivring is this type of player imo... he's a bad defender but very capable and you see him step it up when he feels he needs to. Stupidity aside you make my point at the end of your post when you say "you see him step it up when he feels he needs to." If your a great NBA type athlete you can play D, you just need to want to and be coached to.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 12, 2017 14:50:15 GMT -5
Kyrie Irving is an atrocious defender even when he feels he needs to defend well. He isn't a Curry stopper just because Steph choked it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 12, 2017 14:57:27 GMT -5
I'm not married to Koufos just used him as an example of a player type and someone who could fit both scheme and salary. Team building is tricky so if you add a guy like Fultz another guard had to go and it's better to get something than lose them for nothing. Koufos is less valuable than Bradley but he may be more valuable for the Celtics at that point if they have Bradley, IT, Smart, Rosier and Fultz.... it's not easy to make trades that work so a trade like that would be more a decision that "we aren't going to pay Bradley because we are going to pay the other guys so let's trade the asset rather than lose him for nothing". Anyways, let's not focus on Koufos it's more about the overall strategy than anything else. I agree Smart will never shoot as well as Bradley but he doesn't need to. He's better with the ball in his hands but he'd be the 3rd guard and his ball handling would be valuable. Plus, he's really developing into a solid corner 3 guy and he's really developing a great driving game. He's not a finished product but where was Bradleys game at Smarts age? Your going to have to give both new contracts after next season. So what each player will sign for has to come into play. Also you keep assuming we get Fultz which is a flawed logic at this point. Chances we get #1 pick is slim and even if we do, it's way to early to say he's the top player. Chad Ford has said more teams have Fultz at #1, but a bunch of teams have other players. So if we are going to talk long-term team building we really need to know where we pick first. Also even if we get Fultz you seem to be penciling him into starting role right away. For me I keep Bradley and Thomas as starters and Fultz becomes my #3. Hence why I think Smart is the one to be traded if we get Fultz. Long-term you can switch Fultz with Thomas. I've always said I see Thomas as a super 6 man long-term on a true title contender due to his D. As to the comparing Bradley to Smart at same age. It's really not the same, as Smart has had a lot more playing time. Smart played two years of College, to Bradley one. Smart has played big minutes for 2 1/2 years, 3 years at year end, at 22 Bradley was just getting his first chance at big minutes. At 21 in limited minutes Bradley showed he could hit the 3 and his pull up jumper. That was his calling card, good D, can shoot 3 ball and pull up jumper. These are the things he showed at College. There was also Doc's comments that Bradley was hitting the 3 ball all the time in practice. Smart on the other hand, has yet to show the skill that had me excited when we drafted him. His ability to drive to lane and get to line at a very high rate. I know when we drafted him, the worry was that he wouldn't be able to bull pro players around like he did in College. So far that seems to be true, I just don't understand why. As far as guards go he's still huge compared to almost all guards. Instead of driving to the lane like a bull all the time, he seems to have fallen in love with the 3 ball. Unless you think he's going to become a 35% or better 3 point shooter, he needs to get back to what he did in College. That's the only way I see him becoming a good offensive player. He's young, so he sure can improve, but so far in 2 and half years he yet to get better at getting to line, hence why I'm not high on him right now.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 12, 2017 15:22:08 GMT -5
Not that I'm refuting much of what you said, but Smart's love for the 3 is a team thing, isn't it? I don't have the numbers right in front of me but it sure seems like they are building their offense from the outside in.
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Post by telluricrook on Jan 12, 2017 15:48:22 GMT -5
To be clear, he hasn't (and can't) sign the big deal until the offseason. He does have to make an all-NBA team! He is not a lock but he sure can do it!
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Post by jmei on Jan 12, 2017 15:58:16 GMT -5
Smart doesn't have the athleticism, creativity with the dribble and finishing ability to consistently get into and score in the paint at the NBA level. I'd bet more on him becoming an average-or-better three point shooter than I would on him learning the nuances of scoring at the rim against NBA defenders.
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