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2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
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Post by telson13 on Nov 9, 2016 23:07:08 GMT -5
Holland is the guy to go after there. Not sure how the Melancon market will shape up, but he's an outside target if he gets the shaft for not being transcendent, just really, really good. It sounds like they want a sure thing eighth-inning arm. Holland doesn't really fit that description--he's relatively high-risk, high-reward. Reports from his workout were that his velo was still below his historical norms. I guess my approach re: 8th-inning arms would be to take a flyer on a guy like Holland and maybe a couple of other reclamation projects, and re-sign Koji. Because I think you're absolutely right: there are no clear-cut FAs, and a trade would probably be unreasonably costly. Unless they signed a closer and relegated Kimbrel or the new guy to the 8th inning, finding a "legit" guy who fits the bill isn't that viable a plan. But with Kelly pitching great out of the 'pen, and Barnes, and possibly even Ross or by July, Smith, they might have an in-house option. So taking a few risks reduces their long-term obligations, and gives them an early out (unloading 1-year contract relievers is pretty easy). Worst-case scenario, they have to fill from within or make a trade next spring, at which point at least they'll have more info. I just don't see any sure-fire targets. I'd rather see them take a risk on greatness than commit 3/25-30 for pretty good (given the volatility of relievers-see O'Day).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 9, 2016 23:47:58 GMT -5
Well if you take DD at his word and he's a straight shooter usually, that means an elite Closer on free agent market or more likely a trade.
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Post by soxjim on Nov 9, 2016 23:49:01 GMT -5
For everyone's information, Chapman's agent is already asking for 100 million according to MLB network radio. Doesn't mean he'll get it but that's what he's already asking for. Anyone think Chapman is a awesome option now? I do. He's asking for something - as you say we don't have to give him what he is asking. So at the point- yes he is still awesome because he is a tier above Kimbrel and he will be for several years. Isn't it worth it to get the best of the best if our aspirations are to continually be a title threat?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 9, 2016 23:53:52 GMT -5
Well, his defensive ratings are still better than Morales's were, and Morales was theoretically playing an easier position. Both are essentially DH-only. I'd rather give up nothing (not even a draft pick) for either than have to give up real prospects for Martinez (which would cost someone in the top-5, and that's not remotely worth it). The off season plan for the Tigers is to shed payroll and get younger. I really don't think Martinez costs a top 5 prospect in his last arbitration year. I really don't. I think a package of Shaw and Dubon (a top 10 prospect) could get the ball rolling there. JD Martinez is one of the most obvious trade options of the Tigers this off-season. That's a lot for a one year rental. Never mind that would basically hand Sandoval the 3B job or you'd have to move Holt there. I just think there are other one year options that would cost a lot less and not hurt our 3B depth.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2016 0:06:14 GMT -5
For everyone's information, Chapman's agent is already asking for 100 million according to MLB network radio. Doesn't mean he'll get it but that's what he's already asking for. Anyone think Chapman is a awesome option now? This isn't news, most experts pegged him at 100 million weeks ago. I actually think a bidding war between Cubs, Yankees and maybe Giants could push his deal to 5 years 125 million or gulp maybe someone goes 6 years and 130-140. We are finally starting to value elite relievers the way they should be. If you assume he's a 2.5 war player going forward and you believe fangraphs study that elite reliever add another war to team. That's like 3.5 WARs a year, at like 8 million a war. So why is 100 million crazy money? For me he's the most elite free agent this year and he's going to get paid!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 10, 2016 0:43:37 GMT -5
The off season plan for the Tigers is to shed payroll and get younger. I really don't think Martinez costs a top 5 prospect in his last arbitration year. I really don't. I think a package of Shaw and Dubon (a top 10 prospect) could get the ball rolling there. JD Martinez is one of the most obvious trade options of the Tigers this off-season. That's a lot for a one year rental. Never mind that would basically hand Sandoval the 3B job or you'd have to move Holt there. I just think there are other one year options that would cost a lot less and not hurt our 3B depth. It's not a big price. If the QO still costs a draft pick, then that means you're getting Martinez for a year a first round comp pick for a player who unquestionably makes your team that much stronger and a player that's in his prime. The Sox have plenty of third base depth in Pablo, Holt, Marco Hernandez, and Moncada eventually.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 10, 2016 0:48:57 GMT -5
For everyone's information, Chapman's agent is already asking for 100 million according to MLB network radio. Doesn't mean he'll get it but that's what he's already asking for. Anyone think Chapman is a awesome option now? I do. He's asking for something - as you say we don't have to give him what he is asking. So at the point- yes he is still awesome because he is a tier above Kimbrel and he will be for several years. Isn't it worth it to get the best of the best if our aspirations are to continually be a title threat? No because you can get by with a Kimbrel without having to pay a reliever basically number 2 starter money. It's mind numbingly dumb to give a reliever this much money. All the big market teams are going after Chapman, he will get what he wants or close to what he wants or you're not getting the player.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2016 1:05:50 GMT -5
That's a lot for a one year rental. Never mind that would basically hand Sandoval the 3B job or you'd have to move Holt there. I just think there are other one year options that would cost a lot less and not hurt our 3B depth. it's not a big price. If the QO still cost a draft pick, then that means you're getting Martinez for a year a first round comp pick for a player who unquestionably makes your team that much stronger and a player that's in his prime. The Sox have plenty of third base depth in Pablo, Holt, Marco Hernandez, and Moncada eventually. Well that's the thing, you have no idea about the QO pick currently. Even then your trading the best defender at 3B out of Pablo, Holt and Hernandez. You also lose a guy that can play 1B. I think your way underrating Shaw value. Most likely you can trade him for prospects and flip those for Martinez and keep Doubon. I think everyone agrees Holt is your super utility guy and 3B is his worst defensive position. You have no idea is Pablo can bounce back. I like Hernandez, but her sure seems like a Holt type player, not a everyday starter a third. You also don't want to count on Moncada in my opinion. I sure hopes he is in majors by mid season, I just don't want to rush him before he's ready. With Shaw's D at third, even if he hits at his career numbers both minors and majors combined, your looking at like a 2 war player for 5 years making very little.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2016 1:23:58 GMT -5
I do. He's asking for something - as you say we don't have to give him what he is asking. So at the point- yes he is still awesome because he is a tier above Kimbrel and he will be for several years. Isn't it worth it to get the best of the best if our aspirations are to continually be a title threat? No because you can get by with a Kimbrel without having to pay a reliever basically number 2 starter money. It's mind numbingly dumb to give a reliever this much money. All the big market teams are going after Chapman, he will get what he wants or close to what he wants or you're not getting the player. Based on current contracts, a 100 million is more like #3 starter money. Smarardzija got 90 million and I wouldn't call him a #2. Ian Kennedy got 70 million and he's called a back end starter. I think Lester is a legit #2 and he got 160 million. Aces are getting about 200 plus currently. Chapman is as elite an Reliever as you can get and gave you 25 million plus worth of production last year and almost every year he's been in big leagues. Just think about this last two world series winners both had very elite relievers. With starters going less innings relievers are all the rage currently. You current thinking is so 10-15 years ago. You really need to read fangraphs article on elite relievers. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-extra-value-of-having-an-elite-reliever/
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 10, 2016 1:46:11 GMT -5
No because you can get by with a Kimbrel without having to pay a reliever basically number 2 starter money. It's mind numbingly dumb to give a reliever this much money. All the big market teams are going after Chapman, he will get what he wants or close to what he wants or you're not getting the player. Based on current contracts, a 100 million is more like #3 starter money. Smarardzija got 90 million and I wouldn't call him a #2. Ian Kennedy got 70 million and he's called a back end starter. I think Lester is a legit #2 and he got 160 million. Aces are getting about 200 plus currently. Chapman is as elite an Reliever as you can get and gave you 25 million plus worth of production last year and almost every year he's been in big leagues. Just think about this last two world series winners both had very elite relievers. With starters going less innings relievers are all the rage currently. You current thinking is so 10-15 years ago. You really need to read fangraphs article on elite relievers. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-extra-value-of-having-an-elite-reliever/The difference in "Elite" closers from good ones shouldn't be worth 8-10 million more sorry. Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmerman are basically number 2's getting paid 20 million a year. Closers shouldn't be getting paid that much, I don't care if it's 10-15 years ago or 10-15 years from now. They are one inning pitchers who pitch a 1/3 of what starters pitch.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 10, 2016 1:49:21 GMT -5
it's not a big price. If the QO still cost a draft pick, then that means you're getting Martinez for a year a first round comp pick for a player who unquestionably makes your team that much stronger and a player that's in his prime. The Sox have plenty of third base depth in Pablo, Holt, Marco Hernandez, and Moncada eventually. Well that's the thing, you have no idea about the QO pick currently. Even then your trading the best defender at 3B out of Pablo, Holt and Hernandez. You also lose a guy that can play 1B. I think your way underrating Shaw value. Most likely you can trade him for prospects and flip those for Martinez and keep Doubon. I think everyone agrees Holt is your super utility guy and 3B is his worst defensive position. You have no idea is Pablo can bounce back. I like Hernandez, but her sure seems like a Holt type player, not a everyday starter a third. You also don't want to count on Moncada in my opinion. I sure hopes he is in majors by mid season, I just don't want to rush him before he's ready. With Shaw's D at third, even if he hits at his career numbers both minors and majors combined, your looking at like a 2 war player for 5 years making very little. You're also "undervaluing" JD Martinez who is a elite premium middle of the order bat that is in his prime and can also learn first base since he doesn't belong in the outfield anymore. I'm sure the owners aren't going to give up their compensation picks for their free agents. That's their stick in the sand for losing free agents, especially the small market teams. In the age of competive balance being strived by the league, the QO won't die this soon. Edit- You're also over valuing Shaw's market when it comes to getting value back. Shaw isn't getting you that much prospects in return or that great of prospects in return.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 10, 2016 2:07:45 GMT -5
Well if you take DD at his word and he's a straight shooter usually, that means an elite Closer on free agent market or more likely a trade. Unless you consider Greg Holland a "elite closer" at the moment, the Sox haven't been tied or connected to any free agent "elite closers" this off season.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2016 3:11:50 GMT -5
Based on current contracts, a 100 million is more like #3 starter money. Smarardzija got 90 million and I wouldn't call him a #2. Ian Kennedy got 70 million and he's called a back end starter. I think Lester is a legit #2 and he got 160 million. Aces are getting about 200 plus currently. Chapman is as elite an Reliever as you can get and gave you 25 million plus worth of production last year and almost every year he's been in big leagues. Just think about this last two world series winners both had very elite relievers. With starters going less innings relievers are all the rage currently. You current thinking is so 10-15 years ago. You really need to read fangraphs article on elite relievers. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-extra-value-of-having-an-elite-reliever/The difference in "Elite" closers from good ones shouldn't be worth 8-10 million more sorry. Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmerman are basically number 2's getting paid 20 million a year. Closers shouldn't be getting paid that much, I don't care if it's 10-15 years ago or 10-15 years from now. They are one inning pitchers who pitch a 1/3 of what starters pitch. It's well worth it for good teams. Very hard to get extra WARs for those teams and those elite guys do just that. With a war worth about 8 million and the elite guys worth 1-2 WARs more it makes perfect sense. Which is why smart teams will pay those elite guys like you've never seen before. A few years ago people thought the Yankees gave Miller way too much money, now he looks like a steal. Porcello is not a number 2 in my eyes, but a 2\3 based on career numbers. He might be a number 2 going forward, I sure hope so, but I'm talking about over his whole career, not what he is currently. Zimmerman is what i would call a #2, but his contract was a result of injury worries due to TJ and declining numbers. People didn't think he would continue to pitch like a #2 and so far that looks correct. If Zimmerman didn't have injury worries and declining performance he would have got Jon Lester money. He's lost almost 2 mph on his fastball the last two years, that's a huge red flag.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2016 3:38:50 GMT -5
Well that's the thing, you have no idea about the QO pick currently. Even then your trading the best defender at 3B out of Pablo, Holt and Hernandez. You also lose a guy that can play 1B. I think your way underrating Shaw value. Most likely you can trade him for prospects and flip those for Martinez and keep Doubon. I think everyone agrees Holt is your super utility guy and 3B is his worst defensive position. You have no idea is Pablo can bounce back. I like Hernandez, but her sure seems like a Holt type player, not a everyday starter a third. You also don't want to count on Moncada in my opinion. I sure hopes he is in majors by mid season, I just don't want to rush him before he's ready. With Shaw's D at third, even if he hits at his career numbers both minors and majors combined, your looking at like a 2 war player for 5 years making very little. You're also "undervaluing" JD Martinez who is a elite premium middle of the order bat that is in his prime and can also learn first base since he doesn't belong in the outfield anymore. I'm sure the owners aren't going to give up their compensation picks for their free agents. That's their stick in the sand for losing free agents, especially the small market teams. In the age of competive balance being strived by the league, the QO won't die this soon. Edit- You're also over valuing Shaw's market when it comes to getting value back. Shaw isn't getting you that much prospects in return or that great of prospects in return. I'M not undervaluing him. He's what a 3-4 war player at DH and that might be high, he might be more like 2-3 war player. He's no where near Ortiz level. Also you can't just assume a career OF can play 1B. Hanley was a career infielder and he couldn't play the OF. It's a totally different skill set. If he could play 1B at a close to average level he could be worth more in regards to wars, but that's a big if. We are only looking for a 1 year stop gap, there are a lot of other players that can fill that need and cost less to acquire. From your posts you seem to want near all star level players at every position and that's never going to happen. QO is huge for the players as it drives down salary, there's a reason everyone keeps saying they don't know if it Will exist next year, it's far from a given. No one knows, well except you I guess. I would be shocked if it didn't change in some way. Have you looked at available 3B this year? You have Turner and almost nothing else. A league average to slightly above 3B that plays good D, makes peanuts and has 5 years of team control has value. Never said he would get elite prospects, but I can sure see a team with a big need trading a player or two like Doubon for him.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2016 3:45:18 GMT -5
Well if you take DD at his word and he's a straight shooter usually, that means an elite Closer on free agent market or more likely a trade. Unless you consider Greg Holland a "elite closer" at the moment, the Sox haven't been tied or connected to any free agent "elite closers" this off season. You base way too much off reports. Teams don't usually tip there hand. Most reports are what people think teams will do. Example did you hear any reports that Red Sox were after Kimbrel last year? Nope, it came out of left field. Did you hear reports that Red Sox were after Smith? Nope. No I don't consider Holland elite at this time, just Red Sox doing due diligence.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 10, 2016 4:53:13 GMT -5
Unless you consider Greg Holland a "elite closer" at the moment, the Sox haven't been tied or connected to any free agent "elite closers" this off season. You base way too much off reports. Teams don't usually tip there hand. Most reports are what people think teams will do. Example did you hear any reports that Red Sox were after Kimbrel last year? Nope, it came out of left field. Did you hear reports that Red Sox were after Smith? Nope. No I don't consider Holland elite at this time, just Red Sox doing due diligence. "Well if you take DD at his word and he's a straight shooter usually" "Teams don't usually tip their hand" Ummm???
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 10, 2016 8:31:32 GMT -5
Holland is the guy to go after there. Not sure how the Melancon market will shape up, but he's an outside target if he gets the shaft for not being transcendent, just really, really good. It sounds like they want a sure thing eighth-inning arm. Holland doesn't really fit that description--he's relatively high-risk, high-reward. Reports from his workout were that his velo was still below his historical norms. Velocity was down some, but he's still only 13 months out from surgery. His slider was his best pitch, so if that's looking good then I'd still be interested. He's at 91 so I'm fairly confident he can get back to 93 with a full healthy offseason of conditioning. It just depends on how low is "buy low."
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 10, 2016 10:00:04 GMT -5
Not sure if there is already a thread for Pomeranz but I would like to hear some of your thoughts on him for next year. The Sox gave up a lot to get him and he should be a big part of next years success or failure. If there is a thread plz direct me.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 10, 2016 10:55:08 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 10, 2016 11:44:10 GMT -5
You're also "undervaluing" JD Martinez who is a elite premium middle of the order bat that is in his prime and can also learn first base since he doesn't belong in the outfield anymore. I'm sure the owners aren't going to give up their compensation picks for their free agents. That's their stick in the sand for losing free agents, especially the small market teams. In the age of competive balance being strived by the league, the QO won't die this soon. Edit- You're also over valuing Shaw's market when it comes to getting value back. Shaw isn't getting you that much prospects in return or that great of prospects in return. I'M not undervaluing him. He's what a 3-4 war player at DH and that might be high, he might be more like 2-3 war player. He's no where near Ortiz level. Also you can't just assume a career OF can play 1B. Hanley was a career infielder and he couldn't play the OF. It's a totally different skill set. If he could play 1B at a close to average level he could be worth more in regards to wars, but that's a big if. We are only looking for a 1 year stop gap, there are a lot of other players that can fill that need and cost less to acquire. From your posts you seem to want near all star level players at every position and that's never going to happen. QO is huge for the players as it drives down salary, there's a reason everyone keeps saying they don't know if it Will exist next year, it's far from a given. No one knows, well except you I guess. I would be shocked if it didn't change in some way. Have you looked at available 3B this year? You have Turner and almost nothing else. A league average to slightly above 3B that plays good D, makes peanuts and has 5 years of team control has value. Never said he would get elite prospects, but I can sure see a team with a big need trading a player or two like Doubon for him. I think you are grossly underrating JD Martinez. Ortiz: 2014 - 134 wRC+ 2015 - 137 wRC+ 2016 - 162 wRC+ JD Martinez: 2014 - 154 wRC+ 2015 - 137 wRC+ 2016 - 142 wRC+ They are nearly dead even and JD Martinez is a MUCH better baserunner (he's a 40-45, but Ortiz was really bad at running). Ortiz had a great 2016, but I'd argue that Martinez is the better player. Not taking away anything from Ortiz, but Martinez is REALLY good. Probably 3.5 fWAR at DH. (he missed a few games last year and was brutal in the field, so his fWAR looks low)
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 10, 2016 11:48:16 GMT -5
For everyone's information, Chapman's agent is already asking for 100 million according to MLB network radio. Doesn't mean he'll get it but that's what he's already asking for. Anyone think Chapman is a awesome option now? This isn't news, most experts pegged him at 100 million weeks ago. I actually think a bidding war between Cubs, Yankees and maybe Giants could push his deal to 5 years 125 million or gulp maybe someone goes 6 years and 130-140. We are finally starting to value elite relievers the way they should be. If you assume he's a 2.5 war player going forward and you believe fangraphs study that elite reliever add another war to team. That's like 3.5 WARs a year, at like 8 million a war. So why is 100 million crazy money? For me he's the most elite free agent this year and he's going to get paid! That makes no sense at all. He's averaged less than 2 WAR per season and he's 28. Last year it was 1.1. Being very generous, that's worth less than $10 million. Add another win and it still isn't close to what he'll be asking for. He almost lost the last game for Chicago because he'd been overused. Moreover, given the volatility of relievers (see Kimbrel, Craig) this is just about guaranteed to be money down the drain. I'm sure he'll be well paid. I don't think it will be by the Sox unless everyone in the FO gets really stupid.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 10, 2016 12:34:31 GMT -5
This isn't news, most experts pegged him at 100 million weeks ago. I actually think a bidding war between Cubs, Yankees and maybe Giants could push his deal to 5 years 125 million or gulp maybe someone goes 6 years and 130-140. We are finally starting to value elite relievers the way they should be. If you assume he's a 2.5 war player going forward and you believe fangraphs study that elite reliever add another war to team. That's like 3.5 WARs a year, at like 8 million a war. So why is 100 million crazy money? For me he's the most elite free agent this year and he's going to get paid! That makes no sense at all. He's averaged less than 2 WAR per season and he's 28. Last year it was 1.1. Being very generous, that's worth less than $10 million. Add another win and it still isn't close to what he'll be asking for. He almost lost the last game for Chicago because he'd been overused. Moreover, given the volatility of relievers (see Kimbrel, Craig) this is just about guaranteed to be money down the drain. I'm sure he'll be well paid. I don't think it will be by the Sox unless everyone in the FO gets really stupid. I think you're only looking at his bWAR with the Cubs(1.1), but not the Yankees(1.4). fWAR is kinder to him with 2.8/2.5/2.7 in his prior 3 seasons. I agree that it's going to be a horrible contract because the difference between elite and good relievers doesn't seem to be worth $15 million per year and elite relievers become just good all the time.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 10, 2016 12:45:30 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2016 12:57:48 GMT -5
You base way too much off reports. Teams don't usually tip there hand. Most reports are what people think teams will do. Example did you hear any reports that Red Sox were after Kimbrel last year? Nope, it came out of left field. Did you hear reports that Red Sox were after Smith? Nope. No I don't consider Holland elite at this time, just Red Sox doing due diligence. "Well if you take DD at his word and he's a straight shooter usually" "Teams don't usually tip their hand" Ummm??? If DD says he's going to get an elite or near elite 8th inning guy he will. That doesn't mean he's going to tell you who's he's going after! BTW, DD is a rare bread, most Baseball people aren't as open as he is.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2016 13:05:00 GMT -5
This isn't news, most experts pegged him at 100 million weeks ago. I actually think a bidding war between Cubs, Yankees and maybe Giants could push his deal to 5 years 125 million or gulp maybe someone goes 6 years and 130-140. We are finally starting to value elite relievers the way they should be. If you assume he's a 2.5 war player going forward and you believe fangraphs study that elite reliever add another war to team. That's like 3.5 WARs a year, at like 8 million a war. So why is 100 million crazy money? For me he's the most elite free agent this year and he's going to get paid! That makes no sense at all. He's averaged less than 2 WAR per season and he's 28. Last year it was 1.1. Being very generous, that's worth less than $10 million. Add another win and it still isn't close to what he'll be asking for. He almost lost the last game for Chicago because he'd been overused. Moreover, given the volatility of relievers (see Kimbrel, Craig) this is just about guaranteed to be money down the drain. I'm sure he'll be well paid. I don't think it will be by the Sox unless everyone in the FO gets really stupid. I have his bwar total as 2.7, 1.9, 2.0 and 3.6 for the last 4 years. That's 2.55 bwars a year and if you believe fangraphs article, more like 3.55 bwars a year.
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