SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Sale to BOS for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 7, 2016 13:21:02 GMT -5
Excellent article. 2 1/2 years old but I agree, well worth the time to look and think. I am glad that we did not trade from the MLB roster. Moncada and Kopech are likely to be great but they would not help us move forward this year. With Papi's loss, we would have needed compensatory improvement from the roster. What is interesting on this site is that the first reaction to any trade of prospects is nearly 100% negative followed shortly by an equal emotional pendulum swing in reverse. And lots of times by the same individuals. I include myself. Now let's see if we can trade some body(ies) to help restock the farm. Well the truth is usually somewhere in the middle. This definitely helps the club for several years and DD is not know for building a farm system, he is known as a very good evaluator of MLB talent and wins a high percentage of trades he makes. If Ben Cherington stayed on board I'd have virtually no worries. There is some cause for concern a few years down the road but it will not be dire either.
|
|
|
Post by klostrophobic on Dec 7, 2016 13:46:47 GMT -5
Is anyone going to be surprised when Moncada has a higher WAR than Chris Sale in two years? If they don't win a World Series in the next three years, the ensuing years of absolutely awful baseball that will follow in the next decade will be all because of Dombrowski and these insane shortsighted trades. What happens next offseason when Dombrowski trades Groome, Devers and Raudes for the next Sale/Kimbrel type of player who is good but not really great?
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Dec 7, 2016 13:55:22 GMT -5
Calling a three-and-a-half win upgrade a "marginal improvement" is stretching the bounds of language. Not when it's coupled with losing Ortiz.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 7, 2016 13:57:51 GMT -5
I just want to double down on pointing out this isn't some old veteran team that's all of a sudden pushed its chips all in an has a 2-3 year window then a long dark time after that. The team is currently stacked with young mostly home grown players who could be around for another decade. The key is to start banging out some extensions. Let's take a look position by position next seasons playing age noted. Used Vet for players who don't likely have long-term futures here for the sake of saving time. Catchers: Leon (28), Vasquez (25), Swithart (25) Notes: didn't trade anything from catcher so Long and short term team is in same spot First-base / Third-base : Vets: Hanley, Moreland, Holt, Sandoval Younger guys: Devers (20), Travis (24), Dalbec (21), Ockimey (21), Lokghi (21) Notes: Losing Moncada here hurts for sure, but Devers may be better and Travis is very under rated in my opinion. He's one of those guys who's not flashy, he just gets the job done. With the nucleus they have simply being an average to above average young cheap performer is extremely valuable. They do not need a star out of Travis to get what they need. Second base/ short stop: Pedey (vet) is the veteran second baseman for the next 5 years. Xander (24) is the shortstop of the future and already one of the best in the game. It is what it is. Chatham (22). Notes: Guerra was the big prospect lost from this group but he had no future here and was turned into one of the best relievers, when used right, in the majors. Outfield: Bradley (27, Betts (24), Benintendi (22). Notes: injuries happen and we did deplete our depth to protect against that but fortunately these are all young proven all-star caliber players. I guess Benintendi isn't proven yet but he has he feel of a guy who is. I'd guess most people have more confidence in him than Bradley. Notes: this outfield is so good and so young that they could be together another decade. Maybe Bradley doesn't have 10 years in him but Betts and Beni will only be 34 and 32 respectively at that time. It makes the losses of any outfielders in these trades lower impact for the long term. Starters: Price(vet), Porcello (28), Sale(28), Erod(24), Pomeranz(28), Wright(vet/32), Groome (18) Notes: the biggest loss in all these trades for the long term is far and away Kopech (talk to me later this year on Espinoza). Starters are gold, especially good young cost controlled ones. Rodriguez and Groome are very key to the long-term of this organization. The reason you have prospects is to help the team either on the field or in trades. There is no one better both in terms of performance and age and contract that a team could trade for than Chris Sale. The Red Sox farm system will be ranked low because of the trades and because of the ridiculous number of guys they graduated who are good in the majors. It makes me laugh when people discount Benintendi as being part of the "system" because he's going to graduate in April. "Oh man that sucks, it's too bad out top 5 guy in baseball isn't still somewhat of a question mark in AA because it would give us more time to dream on him and prop up the organization ranking. It's unfortunate that he's already a know contributor at likely an all-star level" While I agree with much of what you said there are a few things I feel the need to clarify. Players without service time are under team control for 6 years, not a decade. After 3 years they are arb. eligible but they don't start making real money until the fifth and sixth seasons. That is not a problem for the Sox in fact they'll be able to extend the majority of their guys should they choose to but that will limit what they are willing to spend on free agents. Also Pedroia will not be our secondbaseman in 5 years at 39 years old, at least he better not be or we're screwed. We are in great shape for 2 to 3 years and good shape for a few after that. This will give the team a chance to restock the farm but there is likely to be a few years where we are good but handcuffed at getting better about 4 to 5 years out. We'll deal with that then and should enjoy it now becuase it is what it is at this point.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 7, 2016 14:02:26 GMT -5
Is anyone going to be surprised when Moncada has a higher WAR than Chris Sale in two years? If they don't win a World Series in the next three years, the ensuing years of absolutely awful baseball that will follow in the next decade will be all because of Dombrowski and these insane shortsighted trades. What happens next offseason when Dombrowski trades Groome, Devers and Raudes for the next Sale/Kimbrel type of player who is good but not really great? I wouldn't be surprised, but it's also far from a given. The strikeouts are a real worry with Moncada. If they resign Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley, to go along with Benintendi, Devers, Swihart and Groome this team is not going to fall off a cliff in 3 years. I think your really selling Sale short, he's a great pitcher. He might not be the best in game, but he's elite. I also think moving away from the Cancer of a team called White Sox will help him. I expected a Cy Young type season next year.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Dec 7, 2016 14:04:41 GMT -5
I wouldn't have made this deal, but can understand why DD did. I know we gave up a lot, 2 truly elite guys and one more good prospect, along with a so so arm in Diaz. I guess I'm just a little surprised that's all the White Sox got in this market with Sale's crazy good contract. We kept hearing that they wanted the Miller deal, plus two more good prospects. For me this is closer to the Miller deal than the Miller deal plus two more good prospects. The two top prospects are better in Sale deal, but the third piece is much better in the Miller trade. Diaz is a so-so guy in my opinion, won't lose any sleep including him. I'm just surprised they didn't demand a Swihart or some of our lower level upside guys like Raudes, Chavis, Ockimey or Dalbec be included. Yeah, I actually think that in a vacuum, it's a pretty good trade. But given the Kimbrel/Pomeranz trades, the depletion of the farm to this point (and given NY's terrific trades and soon-to-be-minimal salary commitments), and the impending FA of Otani, Machado, etc, I think it was sub-optimal. If Dombrowski can rebuild some value in Pomeranz and Buchholz and Kimbrel, and flip them for (real) prospects, it'll look a lot better. Seems almost certain that Buchholz, Pomeranz, maybe one or two of Johnson, Owens, Elias, etc. will be changing addresses soon.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 14:34:49 GMT -5
Is anyone going to be surprised when Moncada has a higher WAR than Chris Sale in two years? If they don't win a World Series in the next three years, the ensuing years of absolutely awful baseball that will follow in the next decade will be all because of Dombrowski and these insane shortsighted trades. What happens next offseason when Dombrowski trades Groome, Devers and Raudes for the next Sale/Kimbrel type of player who is good but not really great? I think you need to be more realistic about the nature of professional sports. How many teams stay on the short list of World Series contenders for more than a few years? Heck, you're lucky if you even get two or three legitimate chances to win before taking a step back due to free agency, players exiting their prime, etc.
Acquiring Chris Sale was all about maximizing this window of opportunity the Red Sox have. They have a terrific core of young talent 3-4 years away from free agency, they have a strong back end of the bullpen under control for 2-3 more years, they have David Price in his prime, they have (hopefully) another year or two of prime Pedroia. The time to go for it is now. Moncada looks like he could be a special player, but he likely won't reach that ceiling for another three years or so, assuming he reaches it at all (not a given by any stretch). So instead of waiting for Moncada become a star in 2020, Dombrowski decided to pick up a special player right now to try and capitalize on this window of opportunity.
Personally, I'm excited about the move. Not just as a Red Sox fan, but as a fan of baseball in general. It's exciting to see teams roll the dice and go for it.
|
|
wbcd
Rookie
Posts: 33
|
Post by wbcd on Dec 7, 2016 14:38:27 GMT -5
Is anyone going to be surprised when Moncada has a higher WAR than Chris Sale in two years? If they don't win a World Series in the next three years, the ensuing years of absolutely awful baseball that will follow in the next decade will be all because of Dombrowski and these insane shortsighted trades. What happens next offseason when Dombrowski trades Groome, Devers and Raudes for the next Sale/Kimbrel type of player who is good but not really great? Moncada is going to be a five-win player in two years when he can't hit breaking stuff right now? Don't forget, his last three games he was 1 for 10 with six strikeouts in the AFL. He's going to start in AA this year and I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't make it to the majors this year until the September call-ups. I guess stranger things have happened but you can count me as one who would be surprised.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 7, 2016 14:46:22 GMT -5
According to Vegas the Sox are now a 5/1 bet to win the WS, before the trade it was 10/1. I will say it again, I love this team now. I was against this trade based on what people here were predicting it would cost. But now that it is done and the Sox didn't lose a ML player, I am happy with it. They got him for less than most thought it would cost. One of the traits of an ace is that he is called a stopper, as in stopping losing streaks. With 3 of these stoppers now.... what does that mean? DD had a great day yesterday, IMO. For anyone who doubts this still I suggest reading the article linked here from Grantland. DD obviously has a knack for evaluating talent and he has deemed Moncada not worthy of the potential stowed upon him by other evaluators. Once again, IMO. Maybe this is another thread, but what should the rotation be? I'd like the Sox not to put their eggs on order so to speak, but rather spread out the big 3 of Sale(L), Price(L) and Porcello(R). During the regular season breaking them up 1, 3 & 5 the order matters not. It allmost makes it a sure thing the bullpen is not overtaxed 2 days in a row (or would you buy less likely?), thus likely decreasing the amount of times Farrel has to make high leverage situations based on usage etc. I'd go with E-Rod(L) and Pomeranz (R) as your other 2 starters or #2 & #4.. Wright is my swing man who is the first to fill in for an injured starter because I believe as a knuckler he'd have an easier time increasing from 1 to 2 innings of work to eventually 6 to 7 in short order. Buchholz is finally moved for prospects and Elias, Owens and Johnson becomes your 7th, 8th and 9th starters in case the injury bug hits hard. This team should be able to clinch a spot in enough time to shuffle the rotation, if even needed, at that point to put your eggs in order.
|
|
|
Post by scarr0214 on Dec 7, 2016 14:52:44 GMT -5
Is anyone going to be surprised when Moncada has a higher WAR than Chris Sale in two years? If they don't win a World Series in the next three years, the ensuing years of absolutely awful baseball that will follow in the next decade will be all because of Dombrowski and these insane shortsighted trades. What happens next offseason when Dombrowski trades Groome, Devers and Raudes for the next Sale/Kimbrel type of player who is good but not really great? How can you say Sale is good but not really great? He's a bona fide ace. Being short-sighted is exactly why Dombrowski is here. Odds are we're going to win at least one World Series in the next three years. No Red Sox fan should underestimate the value of a championship. I don't care if Moncada is the MVP in two years; if we win a title it's worth it. You play to win it all. With three CY Young caliber starters, a lineup that without Ortiz is still top 5 in the AL, and a solid looking bullpen we're the favorites in the AL. Taking the pessimistic view is easy, but it's not going to win a title.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,149
|
Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2016 14:59:12 GMT -5
Is anyone going to be surprised when Moncada has a higher WAR than Chris Sale in two years? If they don't win a World Series in the next three years, the ensuing years of absolutely awful baseball that will follow in the next decade will be all because of Dombrowski and these insane shortsighted trades. What happens next offseason when Dombrowski trades Groome, Devers and Raudes for the next Sale/Kimbrel type of player who is good but not really great? Lumping Sale in with Kimberly is insane. You could argue that he's the #2 pitcher in baseball behind Kershaw. Also the core of this team is still very young. We have a ton of money coming off of the books as Bradley, Bogaerts, and Betts hit free agency too. We are still in a very good spot, albeit it is because Theo/BC drafted well and built an incredible farm.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2016 15:07:08 GMT -5
Calling a three-and-a-half win upgrade a "marginal improvement" is stretching the bounds of language. Not when it's coupled with losing Ortiz. If you're saying that they've only made a minor improvement from last year's team, that's not at all an insult. They had a +184 run differential in 2016, which translates to a 99 win pythagorean record. Their third-order winning percentage (which looks at underlying peripherals and adjusts for opponent quality) was 103 wins last year. They washed out of the playoffs quickly (which is a parable of its own), but if they're "just" that good over the next three years, that'd be a terrific outcome.
|
|
|
Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 7, 2016 15:09:41 GMT -5
Is anyone going to be surprised when Moncada has a higher WAR than Chris Sale in two years? If they don't win a World Series in the next three years, the ensuing years of absolutely awful baseball that will follow in the next decade will be all because of Dombrowski and these insane shortsighted trades. What happens next offseason when Dombrowski trades Groome, Devers and Raudes for the next Sale/Kimbrel type of player who is good but not really great? Lumping Sale in with Kimberly is insane. You could argue that he's the #2 pitcher in baseball behind Kershaw. Also the core of this team is still very young. We have a ton of money coming off of the books as Bradley, Bogaerts, and Betts hit free agency too. We are still in a very good spot, albeit it is because Theo/BC drafted well and built an incredible farm. [ Br] Disagree with this. He's not even close to guys like Lester Kershaw and MadBum. If he's an ace then the Sox are screwed. Never pitched in the post season. Aces can lead their teams to the post season at least once in 4-5 years especially in a garbage division. Sure the royals caught lightning two years in a row. This was a great opportunity for a home grown roster before Dumb Dave showed up. Price is a massive bust. The question with Moncada isn't if he will win an MVP but how many times will he. Awful. All for a good but not great SP
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,149
|
Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2016 15:13:21 GMT -5
Lumping Sale in with Kimberly is insane. You could argue that he's the #2 pitcher in baseball behind Kershaw. Also the core of this team is still very young. We have a ton of money coming off of the books as Bradley, Bogaerts, and Betts hit free agency too. We are still in a very good spot, albeit it is because Theo/BC drafted well and built an incredible farm. [ Br] Disagree with this. He's not even close to guys like Lester Kershaw and MadBum. If he's an ace then the Sox are screwed. Never pitched in the post season. Aces can lead their teams to the post season at least once in 4-5 years especially in a garbage division. Sure the royals caught lightning two years in a row. This was a great opportunity for a home grown roster before Dumb Dave showed up. Price is a massive bust. The question with Moncada isn't if he will win an MVP but how many times will he. Awful. All for a good but not great SP You nailed it. It's his fault he pitched in a bad team and had to carry them. He's better than Lester and MadBum is a psycho in the playoffs, but Sale is better than him in the regular season too. Fun fact: If the White Sox won all of his starts this year, they still wouldn't have made the playoffs.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2016 15:15:42 GMT -5
[ Br] Disagree with this. He's not even close to guys like Lester Kershaw and MadBum. If he's an ace then the Sox are screwed. Never pitched in the post season. Aces can lead their teams to the post season at least once in 4-5 years especially in a garbage division. Sure the royals caught lightning two years in a row. This was a great opportunity for a home grown roster before Dumb Dave showed up. Price is a massive bust. The question with Moncada isn't if he will win an MVP but how many times will he. Awful. All for a good but not great SP One pitcher cannot carry his team to the playoffs, Pedro Martinez in his prime wouldn't have been able to lead that terrible White Sox team to the playoffs. Also come on, Moncada is now guaranteed to win multiple MVP's? I think he will likely be a very good player but let's just hold off on calling him a multi MVP.
|
|
|
Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 7, 2016 15:16:58 GMT -5
[ Br] Disagree with this. He's not even close to guys like Lester Kershaw and MadBum. If he's an ace then the Sox are screwed. Never pitched in the post season. Aces can lead their teams to the post season at least once in 4-5 years especially in a garbage division. Sure the royals caught lightning two years in a row. This was a great opportunity for a home grown roster before Dumb Dave showed up. Price is a massive bust. The question with Moncada isn't if he will win an MVP but how many times will he. Awful. All for a good but not great SP You nailed it. It's his fault he pitched in a bad team and had to carry them. He's better than Lester and MadBum is a psycho in the playoffs, but Sale is better than him in the regular season too. Fun fact: If the White Sox won all of his starts this year, they still wouldn't have made the playoffs. His 2nd half numbers scream ACE!! DD needs to Beg Chicago for Moncada back
|
|
cutz
Veteran
Posts: 2,322
|
Post by cutz on Dec 7, 2016 15:24:19 GMT -5
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,149
|
Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2016 15:25:36 GMT -5
You nailed it. It's his fault he pitched in a bad team and had to carry them. He's better than Lester and MadBum is a psycho in the playoffs, but Sale is better than him in the regular season too. Fun fact: If the White Sox won all of his starts this year, they still wouldn't have made the playoffs. His 2nd half numbers scream ACE!! DD needs to Beg Chicago for Moncada back 2nd Half: 9.74 K/9, 1.68 BB/9, 3.15 FIP, 3.2 ERA And this is where I stop responding
|
|
|
Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 7, 2016 15:44:24 GMT -5
His 2nd half numbers scream ACE!! DD needs to Beg Chicago for Moncada back 2nd Half: 9.74 K/9, 1.68 BB/9, 3.15 FIP, 3.2 ERA And this is where I stop responding I'll give you that he had a decent August which skews the numbers. K/9 will always be good. He was knocked around in July and September all while losing 2 MPH on his fastball. That's not an ACE.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2016 15:49:47 GMT -5
2nd Half: 9.74 K/9, 1.68 BB/9, 3.15 FIP, 3.2 ERA And this is where I stop responding I'll give you that he had a decent August which skews the numbers. K/9 will always be good. He was knocked around in July and September all while losing 2 MPH on his fastball. That's not an ACE. If you don't consider Sale an ace than who do you consider an ace in the MLB? You mentioned Kershaw, Lester and Madbum earlier do you consider anyone else in the league an ace or is just those three guys?
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 7, 2016 16:19:04 GMT -5
I wouldn't have made this deal, but can understand why DD did. I know we gave up a lot, 2 truly elite guys and one more good prospect, along with a so so arm in Diaz. I guess I'm just a little surprised that's all the White Sox got in this market with Sale's crazy good contract. We kept hearing that they wanted the Miller deal, plus two more good prospects. For me this is closer to the Miller deal than the Miller deal plus two more good prospects. The two top prospects are better in Sale deal, but the third piece is much better in the Miller trade. Diaz is a so-so guy in my opinion, won't lose any sleep including him. I'm just surprised they didn't demand a Swihart or some of our lower level upside guys like Raudes, Chavis, Ockimey or Dalbec be included. Yeah, I actually think that in a vacuum, it's a pretty good trade. But given the Kimbrel/Pomeranz trades, the depletion of the farm to this point (and given NY's terrific trades and soon-to-be-minimal salary commitments), and the impending FA of Otani, Machado, etc, I think it was sub-optimal. If Dombrowski can rebuild some value in Pomeranz and Buchholz and Kimbrel, and flip them for (real) prospects, it'll look a lot better. Seems almost certain that Buchholz, Pomeranz, maybe one or two of Johnson, Owens, Elias, etc. will be changing addresses soon. I would say Buchholz is gone, like 95% chance he's traded before the season started. I think next up is Wright because DD might think he can sell high on him in this market. I would be shocked to see Pomeranz traded and if he is, it's most likely because he sucks. I also think the same thing applies to Kimbrel, only way he gets traded is if he has another down year. I just can't see Dave trading either Pomeranz or Kimbrel if they are playing well. If he did it would be for major league players to help team, not prospects. That's why I think Wright might be guy to move. I'd rather keep him and trade Buchholz, but Clay won't bring much back in return. Wright might get you a couple of good prospects.
|
|
|
Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 7, 2016 16:20:20 GMT -5
I'll give you that he had a decent August which skews the numbers. K/9 will always be good. He was knocked around in July and September all while losing 2 MPH on his fastball. That's not an ACE. If you don't consider Sale an ace than who do you consider an ace in the MLB? You mentioned Kershaw, Lester and Madbum earlier do you consider anyone else in the league an ace or is just those three guys? Arrietta Kluber and Mad Max for sure. I just can't call someone a true ace until they've actually pitched in the post season. Sale is a good SP don't get me wrong. Certainly not a complete waste like Price. But he is not close to any of those 6. Aces are supposed to be the rarest commodity in baseball. Chris Tillman is "an ace" not saying Tillman is better or anything nuts but honestly Sale is not an ace. He's on the next tier with Felix Strasburg Verlander etc...then a tier below that you have your David Price types such as Tillman. Those 6 you can at least rationalize trading a package headlined by Kopech and others. You never ever trade a future MVP like Moncada when you have it in your system. What would have happened if Boston traded Mookie or Angels traded Trout when they were in the minors?
|
|
wbcd
Rookie
Posts: 33
|
Post by wbcd on Dec 7, 2016 16:39:15 GMT -5
The question with Moncada isn't if he will win an MVP but how many times will he. Awful. All for a good but not great SP I'm happy to go out on a limb say that Moncada is not going to be a multiple time MVP. I don't really do this but I would be tempted to have some charity money riding on this statement.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 7, 2016 16:39:36 GMT -5
If you don't consider Sale an ace than who do you consider an ace in the MLB? You mentioned Kershaw, Lester and Madbum earlier do you consider anyone else in the league an ace or is just those three guys? Arrietta Kluber and Mad Max for sure. I just can't call someone a true ace until they've actually pitched in the post season. Sale is a good SP don't get me wrong. Certainly not a complete waste like Price. But he is not close to any of those 6. Aces are supposed to be the rarest commodity in baseball. Chris Tillman is "an ace" not saying Tillman is better or anything nuts but honestly Sale is not an ace. He's on the next tier with Felix Strasburg Verlander etc...then a tier below that you have your David Price types such as Tillman. Those 6 you can at least rationalize trading a package headlined by Kopech and others. You never ever trade a future MVP like Moncada when you have it in your system. What would have happened if Boston traded Mookie or Angels traded Trout when they were in the minors? Haha, so Sales not an ACE, but Moncada is a future MVP? Wow, that's crazy. Sale is an ACE, being paid like a back end starter. Moncada has a great ceiling, but the chances he's a future MVP are very slim. Your way to high on Moncada and say to low on Sale. This trade might hurt down the road, but not because Moncada is a future MVP. If Moncada and Kopech ever get to the all star level, which they both have a decent chance of happening, Dave might really regret this trade.
|
|
|
Post by Coreno on Dec 7, 2016 16:40:07 GMT -5
Not really sure how anybody can say Price is a tier below Sale when his numbers before coming to Boston look pretty damn similar to Sale's.
|
|
|