SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Sale to BOS for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 7, 2016 9:05:09 GMT -5
I just want to double down on pointing out this isn't some old veteran team that's all of a sudden pushed its chips all in an has a 2-3 year window then a long dark time after that.
The team is currently stacked with young mostly home grown players who could be around for another decade. The key is to start banging out some extensions. Let's take a look position by position next seasons playing age noted. Used Vet for players who don't likely have long-term futures here for the sake of saving time.
Catchers:
Leon (28), Vasquez (25), Swithart (25)
Notes: didn't trade anything from catcher so Long and short term team is in same spot
First-base / Third-base :
Vets: Hanley, Moreland, Holt, Sandoval
Younger guys: Devers (20), Travis (24), Dalbec (21), Ockimey (21), Lokghi (21)
Notes: Losing Moncada here hurts for sure, but Devers may be better and Travis is very under rated in my opinion. He's one of those guys who's not flashy, he just gets the job done. With the nucleus they have simply being an average to above average young cheap performer is extremely valuable. They do not need a star out of Travis to get what they need.
Second base/ short stop:
Pedey (vet) is the veteran second baseman for the next 5 years. Xander (24) is the shortstop of the future and already one of the best in the game. It is what it is. Chatham (22).
Notes: Guerra was the big prospect lost from this group but he had no future here and was turned into one of the best relievers, when used right, in the majors.
Outfield: Bradley (27, Betts (24), Benintendi (22).
Notes: injuries happen and we did deplete our depth to protect against that but fortunately these are all young proven all-star caliber players. I guess Benintendi isn't proven yet but he has he feel of a guy who is. I'd guess most people have more confidence in him than Bradley.
Notes: this outfield is so good and so young that they could be together another decade. Maybe Bradley doesn't have 10 years in him but Betts and Beni will only be 34 and 32 respectively at that time. It makes the losses of any outfielders in these trades lower impact for the long term.
Starters:
Price(vet), Porcello (28), Sale(28), Erod(24), Pomeranz(28), Wright(vet/32), Groome (18)
Notes: the biggest loss in all these trades for the long term is far and away Kopech (talk to me later this year on Espinoza). Starters are gold, especially good young cost controlled ones. Rodriguez and Groome are very key to the long-term of this organization.
The reason you have prospects is to help the team either on the field or in trades. There is no one better both in terms of performance and age and contract that a team could trade for than Chris Sale. The Red Sox farm system will be ranked low because of the trades and because of the ridiculous number of guys they graduated who are good in the majors. It makes me laugh when people discount Benintendi as being part of the "system" because he's going to graduate in April. "Oh man that sucks, it's too bad out top 5 guy in baseball isn't still somewhat of a question mark in AA because it would give us more time to dream on him and prop up the organization ranking. It's unfortunate that he's already a know contributor at likely an all-star level"
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Dec 7, 2016 9:06:48 GMT -5
For everyone complaining about "gutting the farm system", here's the year the Red Sox need to sign a FA or call up a prospect for each position: C 2022 (Swihart) 1B 2020 (Unless Travis works out then it's 2023) 2B 2022 (Pedroia) SS 2020 (Bogaerts) 3B 2021 (Sandoval) LF 2023 (Benintendi) CF 2021 (JBJ) RF 2021 (Betts) The Red Sox currently have a good player at every position (except maybe 1B/DH, whichever Ramirez isn't playing). That's great! Other than maybe the Cubs they have the best 1-25 in baseball. We also know that it never works out that way. Positional depth right now is terrible and the pieces aren't there to go out of the organization to fill it. That's bad! It's a reasonable to be really happy with (or nervous about) this trade and also really wary of the organizational depth. It should be noted that part of the issue with the depth comes from all the trades Dombrowski has made in the last 16 months, but it also comes from the fact that the 2012 and 2013 drafts were bad.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Dec 7, 2016 9:20:54 GMT -5
I just want to double down on pointing out this isn't some old veteran team that's all of a sudden pushed its chips all in an has a 2-3 year window then a long dark time after that. The team is currently stacked with young mostly home grown players who could be around for another decade. The key is to start banging out some extensions. Let's take a look position by position next seasons playing age noted. Used Vet for players who don't likely have long-term futures here for the sake of saving time. Catchers: Leon (28), Vasquez (25), Swithart (25) Notes: didn't trade anything from catcher so Long and short term team is in same spot First-base / Third-base : Vets: Hanley, Moreland, Holt, Sandoval Younger guys: Devers (20), Travis (24), Dalbec (21), Ockimey (21), Lokghi (21) Notes: Losing Moncada here hurts for sure, but Devers may be better and Travis is very under rated in my opinion. He's one of those guys who's not flashy, he just gets the job done. With the nucleus they have simply being an average to above average young cheap performer is extremely valuable. They do not need a star out of Travis to get what they need. Second base/ short stop: Pedey (vet) is the veteran second baseman for the next 5 years. Xander (24) is the shortstop of the future and already one of the best in the game. It is what it is. Chatham (22). Notes: Guerra was the big prospect lost from this group but he had no future here and was turned into one of the best relievers, when used right, in the majors. Outfield: Bradley (27, Betts (24), Benintendi (22). Notes: injuries happen and we did deplete our depth to protect against that but fortunately these are all young proven all-star caliber players. I guess Benintendi isn't proven yet but he has he feel of a guy who is. I'd guess most people have more confidence in him than Bradley. Notes: this outfield is so good and so young that they could be together another decade. Maybe Bradley doesn't have 10 years in him but Betts and Beni will only be 34 and 32 respectively at that time. It makes the losses of any outfielders in these trades lower impact for the long term. Starters: Price(vet), Porcello (28), Sale(28), Erod(24), Pomeranz(28), Wright(vet/32), Groome (18) Notes: the biggest loss in all these trades for the long term is far and away Kopech (talk to me later this year on Espinoza). Starters are gold, especially good young cost controlled ones. Rodriguez and Groome are very key to the long-term of this organization. The reason you have prospects is to help the team either on the field or in trades. There is no one better both in terms of performance and age and contract that a team could trade for than Chris Sale. The Red Sox farm system will be ranked low because of the trades and because of the ridiculous number of guys they graduated who are good in the majors. It makes me laugh when people discount Benintendi as being part of the "system" because he's going to graduate in April. "Oh man that sucks, it's too bad out top 5 guy in baseball isn't still somewhat of a question mark in AA because it would give us more time to dream on him and prop up the organization ranking. It's unfortunate that he's already a know contributor at likely an all-star level" The utter fallacy in this whole narrative is that, in three years, essentially every single young player you mentioned (other than Benintendi) will be in arb, getting dramatically inflated salaries, and/or on the verge of FA. Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley will command $20-30M each on their extensions. This team is going to break up very, very rapidly, possibly catastrophically, with very little talent coming up through the system. All for a marginal improvement (5.5-WAR pitcher vs 2 for whoever he replaces). They don't have a decade, they have three years. After that, barring incredible drafting/IFA/development luck, they're toast.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 7, 2016 9:25:57 GMT -5
Time will tell... like I said they need to Start working out extensions and the other part is we need to see if these prospects turn into anything because if not then it doesn't matter. At least they were cashed in on a stud.
Also, you are severely under-rating the impact Sale has on their ability to win in the playoffs. That's the point this team is at. Stop thinking that a 2 win pitcher isn't that big of a fall off from Sale come playoff time. It's massive. Sale is the type of arm that wins you playoff Series. Think Kluber this year with the Indians.
|
|
|
Post by bosox81 on Dec 7, 2016 9:57:35 GMT -5
Playoff performance is never guaranteed. Price and Kershaw should teach you that.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2016 10:04:57 GMT -5
Calling a three-and-a-half win upgrade a "marginal improvement" is stretching the bounds of language.
|
|
wbcd
Rookie
Posts: 33
|
Post by wbcd on Dec 7, 2016 10:12:01 GMT -5
Kopech is going to get a major boost, though-- he'll likely be in most top 30s. From a straight $/WAR perspective, the Red Sox probably lost this one. Agree that Kopech is going to get a boost. Cameron in the same article said that Cody Bellinger, who was in AA and ranked #24 on BA’s midseason list, and #43 on MLB.com’s list, was worth something like $40-$50 million so maybe Kopech is worth $30M right now. Two things about this though. (1) Valuing Sale at $8M a win is low because of his insanely low contract for luxury tax reasons (at least this year; not sure what his cap number is going forward). Sale's 5 WAR is worth more to the Red Sox than $8M per I would guess. (2) Cameron values top 10 hitting prospects at $75M because of their "close proximity" to the majors. I think we saw from his cup o tea last year that Moncada isn't that close to the majors unless he quickly discovers how to hit breaking balls. Thinking back, I wonder if the Sox shut him down in the AFL not only because of his thumb but to keep his trade value up.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2016 10:18:37 GMT -5
I just want to double down on pointing out this isn't some old veteran team that's all of a sudden pushed its chips all in an has a 2-3 year window then a long dark time after that. The team is currently stacked with young mostly home grown players who could be around for another decade. The key is to start banging out some extensions. Let's take a look position by position next seasons playing age noted. Used Vet for players who don't likely have long-term futures here for the sake of saving time. Catchers: Leon (28), Vasquez (25), Swithart (25) Notes: didn't trade anything from catcher so Long and short term team is in same spot First-base / Third-base : Vets: Hanley, Moreland, Holt, Sandoval Younger guys: Devers (20), Travis (24), Dalbec (21), Ockimey (21), Lokghi (21) Notes: Losing Moncada here hurts for sure, but Devers may be better and Travis is very under rated in my opinion. He's one of those guys who's not flashy, he just gets the job done. With the nucleus they have simply being an average to above average young cheap performer is extremely valuable. They do not need a star out of Travis to get what they need. Second base/ short stop: Pedey (vet) is the veteran second baseman for the next 5 years. Xander (24) is the shortstop of the future and already one of the best in the game. It is what it is. Chatham (22). Notes: Guerra was the big prospect lost from this group but he had no future here and was turned into one of the best relievers, when used right, in the majors. Outfield: Bradley (27, Betts (24), Benintendi (22). Notes: injuries happen and we did deplete our depth to protect against that but fortunately these are all young proven all-star caliber players. I guess Benintendi isn't proven yet but he has he feel of a guy who is. I'd guess most people have more confidence in him than Bradley. Notes: this outfield is so good and so young that they could be together another decade. Maybe Bradley doesn't have 10 years in him but Betts and Beni will only be 34 and 32 respectively at that time. It makes the losses of any outfielders in these trades lower impact for the long term. Starters: Price(vet), Porcello (28), Sale(28), Erod(24), Pomeranz(28), Wright(vet/32), Groome (18) Notes: the biggest loss in all these trades for the long term is far and away Kopech (talk to me later this year on Espinoza). Starters are gold, especially good young cost controlled ones. Rodriguez and Groome are very key to the long-term of this organization. The reason you have prospects is to help the team either on the field or in trades. There is no one better both in terms of performance and age and contract that a team could trade for than Chris Sale. The Red Sox farm system will be ranked low because of the trades and because of the ridiculous number of guys they graduated who are good in the majors. It makes me laugh when people discount Benintendi as being part of the "system" because he's going to graduate in April. "Oh man that sucks, it's too bad out top 5 guy in baseball isn't still somewhat of a question mark in AA because it would give us more time to dream on him and prop up the organization ranking. It's unfortunate that he's already a know contributor at likely an all-star level" The utter fallacy in this whole narrative is that, in three years, essentially every single young player you mentioned (other than Benintendi) will be in arb, getting dramatically inflated salaries, and/or on the verge of FA. Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley will command $20-30M each on their extensions. This team is going to break up very, very rapidly, possibly catastrophically, with very little talent coming up through the system. All for a marginal improvement (5.5-WAR pitcher vs 2 for whoever he replaces). They don't have a decade, they have three years. After that, barring incredible drafting/IFA/development luck, they're toast. I'm sorry but when did the Red Sox turn into the Tampa Bay Rays? The Sox will have money to sign Betts, Bogearts and Bradley if they choose to, especially with the increases coming to the luxury tax threshold.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 7, 2016 10:25:07 GMT -5
I would ask that people add Marco Hernandez to the calculations, please.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Dec 7, 2016 10:49:08 GMT -5
According to Vegas the Sox are now a 5/1 bet to win the WS, before the trade it was 10/1. I will say it again, I love this team now. I was against this trade based on what people here were predicting it would cost. But now that it is done and the Sox didn't lose a ML player, I am happy with it. They got him for less than most thought it would cost. One of the traits of an ace is that he is called a stopper, as in stopping losing streaks. With 3 of these stoppers now.... what does that mean? DD had a great day yesterday, IMO. For anyone who doubts this still I suggest reading the article linked here from Grantland. DD obviously has a knack for evaluating talent and he has deemed Moncada not worthy of the potential stowed upon him by other evaluators. Once again, IMO.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,140
|
Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2016 11:12:33 GMT -5
To be fair, Dombrowski said at the presser yesterday that he knows there will be a day when people ask "how could the Red Sox have ever traded this guy?" So I think he really does hold Moncada in high regard.
|
|
|
Post by tonyc on Dec 7, 2016 11:22:54 GMT -5
Thanks again for the astute comments here, and Tomase for a framing of this trade- by itself ok, but the overall/long term approach not so. Also thanks to those who point out DD's mo not to trade a starter for future assets. It seems a skilled GM must have both types of ability. Even Brian Cashman over not just this winter but the last season showed some scrounging, and futuring skills- some of his best work. Our prior three GM's were able to use both sides of the coin- witness how few times all three got burned when trading prospects. And now Cherington may look even better with so many assets used/displayed and potentiallly both his faus pas- Hanley and (Panda?) showing some value. Regarding the derogatory Bruins comments, they are now super saturated with prospects ( with Sweeney of course undergoing a journalist/fan hazing in the process) as we previously were.
DD will fill the New England media/fan short term crazed appetite here- just out of pain I may read a bit less often in this site. I guess it's now our nations culture given that a month ago we ignored warnings from 98 out of 100 political correpsondants and 50 security experts from 3 administrations, instead making a critical choice based on social media and reality tv.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Dec 7, 2016 11:23:47 GMT -5
I just want to double down on pointing out this isn't some old veteran team that's all of a sudden pushed its chips all in an has a 2-3 year window then a long dark time after that. The team is currently stacked with young mostly home grown players who could be around for another decade. The key is to start banging out some extensions. Let's take a look position by position next seasons playing age noted. Used Vet for players who don't likely have long-term futures here for the sake of saving time. Catchers: Leon (28), Vasquez (25), Swithart (25) Notes: didn't trade anything from catcher so Long and short term team is in same spot First-base / Third-base : Vets: Hanley, Moreland, Holt, Sandoval Younger guys: Devers (20), Travis (24), Dalbec (21), Ockimey (21), Lokghi (21) Notes: Losing Moncada here hurts for sure, but Devers may be better and Travis is very under rated in my opinion. He's one of those guys who's not flashy, he just gets the job done. With the nucleus they have simply being an average to above average young cheap performer is extremely valuable. They do not need a star out of Travis to get what they need. Second base/ short stop: Pedey (vet) is the veteran second baseman for the next 5 years. Xander (24) is the shortstop of the future and already one of the best in the game. It is what it is. Chatham (22). Notes: Guerra was the big prospect lost from this group but he had no future here and was turned into one of the best relievers, when used right, in the majors. Outfield: Bradley (27, Betts (24), Benintendi (22). Notes: injuries happen and we did deplete our depth to protect against that but fortunately these are all young proven all-star caliber players. I guess Benintendi isn't proven yet but he has he feel of a guy who is. I'd guess most people have more confidence in him than Bradley. Notes: this outfield is so good and so young that they could be together another decade. Maybe Bradley doesn't have 10 years in him but Betts and Beni will only be 34 and 32 respectively at that time. It makes the losses of any outfielders in these trades lower impact for the long term. Starters: Price(vet), Porcello (28), Sale(28), Erod(24), Pomeranz(28), Wright(vet/32), Groome (18) Notes: the biggest loss in all these trades for the long term is far and away Kopech (talk to me later this year on Espinoza). Starters are gold, especially good young cost controlled ones. Rodriguez and Groome are very key to the long-term of this organization. The reason you have prospects is to help the team either on the field or in trades. There is no one better both in terms of performance and age and contract that a team could trade for than Chris Sale. The Red Sox farm system will be ranked low because of the trades and because of the ridiculous number of guys they graduated who are good in the majors. It makes me laugh when people discount Benintendi as being part of the "system" because he's going to graduate in April. "Oh man that sucks, it's too bad out top 5 guy in baseball isn't still somewhat of a question mark in AA because it would give us more time to dream on him and prop up the organization ranking. It's unfortunate that he's already a know contributor at likely an all-star level" The utter fallacy in this whole narrative is that, in three years, essentially every single young player you mentioned (other than Benintendi) will be in arb, getting dramatically inflated salaries, and/or on the verge of FA. Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley will command $20-30M each on their extensions. This team is going to break up very, very rapidly, possibly catastrophically, with very little talent coming up through the system. All for a marginal improvement (5.5-WAR pitcher vs 2 for whoever he replaces). They don't have a decade, they have three years. After that, barring incredible drafting/IFA/development luck, they're toast. Draft well. trade better. You have 3-4 years and a talent-laden draft this year. Go get em.
|
|
|
Post by philarhody on Dec 7, 2016 11:45:07 GMT -5
Dombrowski's belief in Dalbec's hit tool made giving up Moncada easier. Furthermore, reports surfacing that Moncada developed diabetes this offseason after twinkie binge.
Kopech swole game made FO nervous of future suspensions.
Boston became suspicious of "Parent Trap" scenarios with less-talented Basabe.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 7, 2016 12:04:08 GMT -5
Dombrowski's belief in Dalbec's hit tool made giving up Moncada easier. Furthermore, reports surfacing that Moncada developed diabetes this offseason after twinkie binge.
Kopech swole game made FO nervous of future suspensions.
Boston became suspicious of "Parent Trap" scenarios with less-talented Basabe. Source ?
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 7, 2016 12:13:25 GMT -5
Time will tell... like I said they need to Start working out extensions and the other part is we need to see if these prospects turn into anything because if not then it doesn't matter. At least they were cashed in on a stud. Also, you are severely under-rating the impact Sale has on their ability to win in the playoffs. That's the point this team is at. Stop thinking that a 2 win pitcher isn't that big of a fall off from Sale come playoff time. It's massive. Sale is the type of arm that wins you playoff Series. Think Kluber this year with the Indians. Cleveland may have won that series if they had Carrasco/Salazar. Have to admit I had a mancrush on Kopech. Moncada reminds me of Bo Jackson & his raw athletic ability should make him at least good. Recently watched the movie "Trouble with the Curve" & the RS brass may have seen some "Bo Gentry" there. All in all, I'm on board with the deal.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Dec 7, 2016 12:15:41 GMT -5
The utter fallacy in this whole narrative is that, in three years, essentially every single young player you mentioned (other than Benintendi) will be in arb, getting dramatically inflated salaries, and/or on the verge of FA. Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley will command $20-30M each on their extensions. This team is going to break up very, very rapidly, possibly catastrophically, with very little talent coming up through the system. All for a marginal improvement (5.5-WAR pitcher vs 2 for whoever he replaces). They don't have a decade, they have three years. After that, barring incredible drafting/IFA/development luck, they're toast. I'm sorry but when did the Red Sox turn into the Tampa Bay Rays? The Sox will have money to sign Betts, Bogearts and Bradley if they choose to, especially with the increases coming to the luxury tax threshold. Sure they do. That's roughly $80M a year. Add Price at $30M. You now have $110M tied up in 4 players. Porcello's contract will be up. Are you going to extend him? $25M a year. Now you're at $135M for 5 players. Pedroia's almost guaranteed to be in serious decline. Are you moving Mookie back to 2b? Who's your RF? $10-15M AAV for a FA scrub. Basabe's gone, so there's no internal option. Sale's up. $35M a year. $170M for six players. Can't keep all of these guys. Kimbrel is gone. Pomeranz is gone. ERod's in his walk year. Who's your closer? Want to replace those 4 and 5 starters? $12-18M AAV each in FA. Hope and pray Groome is ready, because that's $30M on the low end for a proven closer and two (bad) FA starters. Now you're at $200M, and you still need 16 more players. Not economically feasible, sorry. Especially since it's more or less guaranteed that the vast majority of those players will be cast offs/FA signs, not internally-produced players. Your 2b is in serious decline, the front of your rotation is entering FA and you can't afford to keep both; the starter you are keeping us probably declining at 34 and is making $31M a year, you have no closer, and you have 4-5 young players all about to make $20M or more per year in FA. Good luck keeping that team intact with a $300M payroll. There are going to be some very painful decisions to make, like letting Sale or Porcello leave. And ERod, especially if he's become a TOR guy. Hope Devers is ready. Say goodbye to JBJ. Hope Barnes has somehow become closer material. Hope Groome is ready, so that you can keep one of Sale/Porcello. Yes, the Sox have resources. Those resources are not unlimited. Keeping the young players they have now will cost somewhere in the range of $80-$110M AAV, not counting Benintendi's arb. They're stuck with Price. There's going to be a lot of turnover. If it's well-timed, they might be OK. But it's going to take a lot of luck. This year's team also has weak 1b/3b options and little depth at those positions. One injury or poor performance will kill them unless DD trades the last vestiges of the farm for a replacement, unless Travis recovers and hits. And he's no help at 3b. The risk of a 2011 repeat is very, very significant. It's a very good short-term (2-3year) move, a horrible one for the franchise's long-term health and competitiveness.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Dec 7, 2016 12:19:09 GMT -5
The utter fallacy in this whole narrative is that, in three years, essentially every single young player you mentioned (other than Benintendi) will be in arb, getting dramatically inflated salaries, and/or on the verge of FA. Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley will command $20-30M each on their extensions. This team is going to break up very, very rapidly, possibly catastrophically, with very little talent coming up through the system. All for a marginal improvement (5.5-WAR pitcher vs 2 for whoever he replaces). They don't have a decade, they have three years. After that, barring incredible drafting/IFA/development luck, they're toast. Draft well. trade better. You have 3-4 years and a talent-laden draft this year. Go get em. The best way out is smart trades of vets the way NYY played it last year. Tough to do unless guys like Barnes/Kelly step up and make a resurgent Kimbrel expendable. They also pick 26th in the draft, not 7-12. There's a way out, but it's going to be very risky, and it's going to take some hard choices and a ton of luck.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 7, 2016 12:27:17 GMT -5
I wouldn't have made this deal, but can understand why DD did. I know we gave up a lot, 2 truly elite guys and one more good prospect, along with a so so arm in Diaz. I guess I'm just a little surprised that's all the White Sox got in this market with Sale's crazy good contract.
We kept hearing that they wanted the Miller deal, plus two more good prospects. For me this is closer to the Miller deal than the Miller deal plus two more good prospects. The two top prospects are better in Sale deal, but the third piece is much better in the Miller trade. Diaz is a so-so guy in my opinion, won't lose any sleep including him. I'm just surprised they didn't demand a Swihart or some of our lower level upside guys like Raudes, Chavis, Ockimey or Dalbec be included.
|
|
art
Veteran
Posts: 364
|
Post by art on Dec 7, 2016 12:27:22 GMT -5
Dombrowski's belief in Dalbec's hit tool made giving up Moncada easier. Furthermore, reports surfacing that Moncada developed diabetes this offseason after twinkie binge.
Kopech swole game made FO nervous of future suspensions.
Boston became suspicious of "Parent Trap" scenarios with less-talented Basabe. Source ? Note the italics.
|
|
|
Post by borisman on Dec 7, 2016 12:33:35 GMT -5
I think philsbosoxfan invented the italics. I also found it hilarious that "sarcasmo" was the only one that clicked "like" on that italics post.
|
|
wbcd
Rookie
Posts: 33
|
Post by wbcd on Dec 7, 2016 12:44:29 GMT -5
It's a very good short-term (2-3year) move, a horrible one for the franchise's long-term health and competitiveness. You are correct - it comes down to that age old question. Is it better for the RS to increase their shot a WS in the near future or should the RS try to ensure fielding competitive teams in the future? Obviously, DD believes that so long as he's getting close to fair value, he's going to do what he can to increase the RS's chance at winning a WS now. Frankly, he was probably hired to do that so I can say that's DD's job. As fans, a lot of us would rather watch the kids grow up. But honestly - would you trade a WS win and three 70-win seasons for a bunch of 90 win seasons without a WS? Because I think we all agree that the RS's chances of winning the WS went up tremendously after the trade. P.S. I hope DD is sending Ben a nice Xmas present.
|
|
|
Post by thursty on Dec 7, 2016 12:57:50 GMT -5
Although there are the seemingly inevitable unfortunate gratuitous "jokes" (Sale is a 'marginal' upgrade over the Red Sox 5th starter), @telson's analysis in its central point is correct.
This team has essentially a 3-year window (with maybe a decent 4th), before it's barren, maybe for a long time (maybe like the Tigers are about to enter?).
Now, I also don't think the problem is with the Sale trade, which more or less is fair. It's with the inane Kimbrel, Pomeranz, and Thornburg ones. Those are indefensible, and they have stripped bare the farm system so that in 3 years, there is literally nothing left to replace all those players who will have graduated to FA.
And I really hate the facile, well you have 3 years of drafts to replenish; look, the same team (sans a lot of the brainpower) that did such a great job in building such a great farm (and which Dombrowski graciously h/t), also drafted Trey Ball (ouch that has really hurt them), Kolben Vitik, Chavis, Matt Barnes, etc. It's a chance game, and all one can hope to do is move the odds slightly in your favor, and then when you hit big, *don't squander it*
And the new CBA makes it even harder for the Red Sox to take advantage of their financial muscle; face it, Moncada wasn't a credit to their international scouts, the Red Sox just were willing to pay the most for him - that's now illegal in the new CBA.
Now if they make 3 straight World Series, you can argue it will have been worth it. But I don't remember feeling any less ill in 2014-2015, despite 2013. The Red Sox had a chance to have a sustainable 8-year run or so; Dombrowski has almost guaranteed that it's at most 4
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 7, 2016 12:58:37 GMT -5
It's a very good short-term (2-3year) move, a horrible one for the franchise's long-term health and competitiveness. You are correct - it comes down to that age old question. Is it better for the RS to increase their shot a WS in the near future or should the RS try to ensure fielding competitive teams in the future? Obviously, DD believes that so long as he's getting close to fair value, he's going to do what he can to increase the RS's chance at winning a WS now. Frankly, he was probably hired to do that so I can say that's DD's job. As fans, a lot of us would rather watch the kids grow up. But honestly - would you trade a WS win and three 70-win seasons for a bunch of 90 win seasons without a WS? Because I think we all agree that the RS's chances of winning the WS went up tremendously after the trade. P.S. I hope DD is sending Ben a nice Xmas present. I would gladly make that trade if we won a Championship. I just hope we win a Championship! After DD has destroyed our farm system and gutted the team, we can bring back Ben to rebuild the Farm System haha.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2016 13:19:16 GMT -5
I'm sorry but when did the Red Sox turn into the Tampa Bay Rays? The Sox will have money to sign Betts, Bogearts and Bradley if they choose to, especially with the increases coming to the luxury tax threshold. Sure they do. That's roughly $80M a year. Add Price at $30M. You now have $110M tied up in 4 players. Porcello's contract will be up. Are you going to extend him? $25M a year. Now you're at $135M for 5 players. Pedroia's almost guaranteed to be in serious decline. Are you moving Mookie back to 2b? Who's your RF? $10-15M AAV for a FA scrub. Basabe's gone, so there's no internal option. Sale's up. $35M a year. $170M for six players. Can't keep all of these guys. Kimbrel is gone. Pomeranz is gone. ERod's in his walk year. Who's your closer? Want to replace those 4 and 5 starters? $12-18M AAV each in FA. Hope and pray Groome is ready, because that's $30M on the low end for a proven closer and two (bad) FA starters. Now you're at $200M, and you still need 16 more players. Not economically feasible, sorry. Especially since it's more or less guaranteed that the vast majority of those players will be cast offs/FA signs, not internally-produced players. Your 2b is in serious decline, the front of your rotation is entering FA and you can't afford to keep both; the starter you are keeping us probably declining at 34 and is making $31M a year, you have no closer, and you have 4-5 young players all about to make $20M or more per year in FA. Good luck keeping that team intact with a $300M payroll. There are going to be some very painful decisions to make, like letting Sale or Porcello leave. And ERod, especially if he's become a TOR guy. Hope Devers is ready. Say goodbye to JBJ. Hope Barnes has somehow become closer material. Hope Groome is ready, so that you can keep one of Sale/Porcello. Yes, the Sox have resources. Those resources are not unlimited. Keeping the young players they have now will cost somewhere in the range of $80-$110M AAV, not counting Benintendi's arb. They're stuck with Price. There's going to be a lot of turnover. If it's well-timed, they might be OK. But it's going to take a lot of luck. This year's team also has weak 1b/3b options and little depth at those positions. One injury or poor performance will kill them unless DD trades the last vestiges of the farm for a replacement, unless Travis recovers and hits. And he's no help at 3b. The risk of a 2011 repeat is very, very significant. It's a very good short-term (2-3year) move, a horrible one for the franchise's long-term health and competitiveness. By the time these scenarios happen how do we know the Red Sox wouldn't have built up a farm system again to combat the issues? A year ago most people wouldn't even look twice at having traded Kopech, Dubon or Basabe. Baseball can be an unpredictable game, and many times prospects come out of seemingly nowhere. Rather than sit here and worry about 4-5 years down the road I am looking at this Sox team as a potential juggarnaut for the near future.
|
|
|