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Sale to BOS for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz
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Post by theghostofjoecronin on Dec 6, 2016 22:50:24 GMT -5
Not exactly sure how I feel about this trade. On one hand I'm very excited to land an ace for our staff to make it one of (if not the) best in baseball. On the other hand I have my doubts that he will be able to hold up physically for the length of the contract. A lot of mileage on that arm and thin frame.
As for the prospects, it stings to give up Moncada and Kopech. Moncada is a one in a generational talent, sure he was not without flaws but the potential was there for him to be a cornerstone player for years to come. I was always a big fan of Kopech, it was good to see him clean up his mechanics this year and it seemed to help his fastball command. Not everyday do you have a starting pitcher who can throw triple digits and has solid secondary offerings to boot.
I do understand what it takes to trade for an ace, and it helps that he's still under contract for a few years....but it's still tough to swallow especially considering we just traded away Shaw so our 3rd base depth is putrid right now; a lot of eggs in one basket.
Like I told a friend, I'll be happy if we can win a World Series or 3 over the next few years, otherwise we are in for a long several years after that. It could be a trade we look back on down the road and wonder 'what if?'. I guess we'll find out in due time, until then at least we finally don't have to worry about our starting rotation.
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Post by bosox81 on Dec 6, 2016 23:00:52 GMT -5
Will this be the second successful deal by DDo as a Red Sox? It's gotta be, right? I mean it's only been 16 prospects so far and we have had Brad Ziegler for two months to show for it.
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Post by soxjim on Dec 6, 2016 23:32:59 GMT -5
I'm fine with what the Red Sox because a lot had to with my interest for Moncada waned and from what I read I really like Devers. As a fan, I can't help but be happy that we're going to be a playoff caliber team for several years with chance to win w/s/be in the hunt over the next 3-5 years. As a fan, that's all I can ask. We did win one in the prior year, totally magical, but three last places with our high salary wreaks of incompetence.
Hopefully Red Sox won't care about 4 lefties. Pitch your best. look for a big haul for ERod or keep him if no big haul. Buchh is not a full season pitcher and Pomz and Erod aren't either. With Wright- rain or humidity hurt him. SO I don't want to necessarily see Sox trade Erod then watch Buchh breakdown then we're stuck with a bad Wright for two months of the season.
We're going to be a very good team and our owner and GM are trying to win. I can't be real upset about that though I'd be surprised if there isn't some impact injuries.
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Post by thursty on Dec 6, 2016 23:38:24 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 6, 2016 23:38:32 GMT -5
My bad, my avatars get traded.
Of course, lot's of mixed feeling here but I'm sure happy that ERod wasn't included but I would have rather had Swihart go than Kopech.
One of Buchholz or Wright pretty much has to be traded for prospects now.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 7, 2016 0:25:48 GMT -5
I generally lean towards keeping prospect value but DD was brought in to win now correct? Other than getting Billy Beane there are not many GM's more willing to pull the trigger than DD. And this was another classic DD move. Purchase strong, consistent value with prospects. He is not a bargain shopper. He likes great, proven talent and he's willing to pay for it. Considering the effort level of Sale's pitching technique though, he is very possibly cruising for an injury soon. If he stays healthy we get the value DD wanted. If he has an arm injury it's "Oh Well"... Sale doesn't break the bank and that is very important with this team right now, plus he may even net a pick if he leaves in 3 years. He's still young and one would expect a probable pick from him when he leaves during FA. That's an important aspect of this deal as well.
I don't think we should trade a starter and I'm fine with optioning Erod if necessary. We need better starting pitching depth than we have been getting recently. I'm glad we shot our wad for starting pitching, rather than a hitter. I liked Dubon and Kopech more than most but think this Sale deal was good overall. Chicago might be able to get more out of Moncada than we do. They've had better experiences with Cuban players like Abreau and it's not like we need another 2nd baseman. This deal was going to happen months ago, IMO.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 7, 2016 0:38:07 GMT -5
It's a very tough pill to swallow but, if we do stay under the cap and are able to be on an even playing field for Otani, this might be viewed in retrospect as DD's finest hour. In a straight bidding war, I'd have no reservations about putting my money on John Henry.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Dec 7, 2016 0:41:40 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 7, 2016 1:09:57 GMT -5
Busy day, though it can't begin to compare to Dombrowski's. Heading back from town I caught Bradford on MLB radio. Giddy he was, ecstatic that the Sox didn't have to trade any of their top-flight ML position players. He was convinced that the White Sox would insist on Bradley at the very least, to go with the minor league haul. The point he hammered home, over and over again, was the three years of control at what should be a rock-bottom price (with no injury intervening, of course). Chris Sale over the last five years has cost Chicago about $20 million, but he's been worth nearly 20 times that much. That is serious value.
The biggest issue is the one that's been mentioned over and over, that there isn't much left in the minor league system, and it's true - there isn't. There are still a few pieces, and time to rebuild, again given everyone's good health on the ML roster. There are very few holes on that roster at this point. I know everyone wants Ortiz to sneak back into the lineup, or someone like him, but this team has a lot of young hitters who should get even better. Now they have a deadly rotation and, hopefully, some serious bullpen arms.
I think Moncada is going to be a player though I also think it's going to take a while and he does seem to be injury prone. I have no idea what his ceiling is, but it's got to be perennial All-Star. Does he reach that?
Kopech had tremendous upside, and tremendous risk - and not just off the field. He has such a power arm that he should be able to back off a bit, gain a lot more control, and still smoke hitters. But will he choose to go that route? He also needs some serious secondary pitches and control of more than one, to make it as a starter. The potential, however, is out of sight.
The others are lottery tickets, but I'll echo what Hatfield mentioned earlier today. The Sox under Dombrowski seem completely uninterested in acquiring their own lottery tickets. That's unfortunate given the depletion of the system at this point.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 7, 2016 1:19:30 GMT -5
Considering Tazawa, the fact that Hembree has options and Barnes doesn't, Wright has options, Buchholz doesn't, three cost controlled catchers, the return of both Carson Smith and Workman, imagine the trade position DD could find himself in at next year's trade deadline.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 7, 2016 1:30:21 GMT -5
A couple of thoughts.
I might be in the minority but honestly I would have preferred the Sox deal JBJ instead of Moncada in the Sale deal. I think the Red Sox could have gotten a corner OF somewhere to at least platoon with Young. I think Moncada would have been either the 3b or even an OF by the end of the year. I was intrigued by the idea of a Benintendi/Betts/Moncada outfield down the road (with Devers at 3b). I like the fact that Moncada could have been under the Red Sox' control thru the 2023 season and I think he has a higher ceiling than JBJ.
The other thought I had is that the Red Sox better go all out in the international market this upcoming season. They really, really need to replenish their system (and I'm hoping that dealing Drew Pomeranz and Clay Buchholz also aids the cause). Of course with the rules change, I imagine there will be a number of clubs who'll go crazy in the international market, so the Sox would have a lot of competition.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 7, 2016 3:27:49 GMT -5
Been working all day, so didn't read through this thread but wanted to post.
I like the trade. They got an elite arm, cost controlled, in his prime.
It will be very hard to love the trade, because they gave up massively high potential. A CY and a WS or two would make me love the deal though...
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Post by redsoxfan2001 on Dec 7, 2016 3:35:43 GMT -5
So the rotation now has: 1) Porcello (2016 Cy young) 2) Sale (2016 all star game starter, five time all star) 3) Price (five time all star, 2012 cy young winner) 4) Stephen Wright (2016 all star) 5) Pomeranz (2016 all star) So the guy who had the worst 2015 is David Price? Haha pretty much. I guess Sale becomes the 'ace' and Price was and will always be a number one starter...To think we are paying Buchholz more money than Sale and he's controllable! I say we lucked out.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 7, 2016 5:52:21 GMT -5
Well your wrong on both counts, but I'm sure that won't slow your roll. I realize that idiocy and you are on a first name basis, but you might try looking up the definition of "maybe" Having pointed that out, I'm relieved that Devers was spared (for now) Which ignores the fact your were in fact wrong, but don't let that slow your roll and grow up.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 7, 2016 6:05:45 GMT -5
D-Dom was interviewed on he MLB Network just after the presser and I was struck by how casually he said that, yes, Kopech will probably be a No.1. For better or worse, this is the guy we have running baseball ops. JWH knew what he was getting and was looking for a 180-degree switch from the prospect-hoarding BC. I just think they gave up a ton of cost-controlled talent for a guy who's been a very good, not great, P the last two years. By ERA-plus he's gone 140, 173, 137, 114, 120 since becoming a starter in 2012. (In fairness, his periphs were better in 2015 than the ERA-plus would indicate.) His three best WAR years (B-Ref) all came between 2012 and 2014. If we use WAR as our measure, this trade is likely to be a blowout in favor of the WS, given that they got a batch of guys - including two potential studs - with six cost-controlled years apiece and Sale is under contract for only three. I have to think they trade either Clay or Pomeranz for a corner IF now. I can't imagine they go into the season betting heavily on Panda as a productive, healthy and committed player. In fact Seattle is inquiring about the availability of both those pitchers.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 7, 2016 6:46:39 GMT -5
For everyone here that completely fails to realize what an amazing value this deal is (and there are a lot of you), especially in a SP market headlined by 38 year old Rich Hill and Jason Hammel, I offer you this article. Same thing with the Thornburg trade this morning. grantland.com/features/dave-dombrowski-detroit-tigers/Dombrowski almost never loses his trades, he wins, and wins big. The #HOTTAKE overreactions are absurd and quite frankly, shows how little a person knows about baseball and market values. Thanks for the link, it should be a required read for those claiming the sky is falling.
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Post by borisman on Dec 7, 2016 6:53:30 GMT -5
A couple of thoughts. I might be in the minority but honestly I would have preferred the Sox deal JBJ instead of Moncada in the Sale deal. I think the Red Sox could have gotten a corner OF somewhere to at least platoon with Young. I think Moncada would have been either the 3b or even an OF by the end of the year. I was intrigued by the idea of a Benintendi/Betts/Moncada outfield down the road (with Devers at 3b). I like the fact that Moncada could have been under the Red Sox' control thru the 2023 season and I think he has a higher ceiling than JBJ. The other thought I had is that the Red Sox better go all out in the international market this upcoming season. They really, really need to replenish their system (and I'm hoping that dealing Drew Pomeranz and Clay Buchholz also aids the cause). Of course with the rules change, I imagine there will be a number of clubs who'll go crazy in the international market, so the Sox would have a lot of competition. Has DD ever done that? We'll see what, if anything, other teams will offer for the (somewhat) surplus of SP we have (Pomeranz, ERod, Buch). Either of them could fetch us prospects. DD did say they'd listen to any calls about their SP depth.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 7, 2016 7:13:56 GMT -5
For everyone here that completely fails to realize what an amazing value this deal is (and there are a lot of you), especially in a SP market headlined by 38 year old Rich Hill and Jason Hammel, I offer you this article. Same thing with the Thornburg trade this morning. grantland.com/features/dave-dombrowski-detroit-tigers/Dombrowski almost never loses his trades, he wins, and wins big. The #HOTTAKE overreactions are absurd and quite frankly, shows how little a person knows about baseball and market values. Thanks for the link, it should be a required read for those claiming the sky is falling. Excellent article. 2 1/2 years old but I agree, well worth the time to look and think.
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Post by artfuldodger on Dec 7, 2016 7:25:19 GMT -5
From a talent evaluation, DD seemed to make 2 major decisions: 1) trade Moncada over one of the outfielders and 2) trade Kopech over EROD. It will be interesting to see if he right on both accounts.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 7, 2016 8:03:40 GMT -5
Sox now have a top 3 of Porcello, Price and Sale for a combined 62 million in 2017. With 2 more seasons at close to the same price in 18 and 19 what is that worth? Obviously this would be a projection but is that in the range of 80 to 90 million in savings? Maybe more? The more I look at this deal the more I like it. The combination of cost, control and the fact the Sox are aligned to get what historically would be some of the best 3 years out of a HOF type pitcher. Yes they gave up a lot of potential but what they received back is the perfect storm in terms of value. They already have a great nucleus of young players with Benny being the favorite for ROY this coming yr and Devers the year after. A farm fed core of Mookie, Xander, JBJ, Erod, Benny, Swihart, Vazquez and Devers. The Sox were in a perfect position to trade away some top prospects as they had so many. And for those of you concerned about the future. The Sox will still have many of these guys mentioned 5 years from now and will always have the money to maintain a strong lineup. Whats the concern?
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wbcd
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Post by wbcd on Dec 7, 2016 8:33:29 GMT -5
D-Dom was interviewed on he MLB Network just after the presser and I was struck by how casually he said that, yes, Kopech will probably be a No.1. For better or worse, this is the guy we have running baseball ops. JWH knew what he was getting and was looking for a 180-degree switch from the prospect-hoarding BC. I just think they gave up a ton of cost-controlled talent for a guy who's been a very good, not great, P the last two years. By ERA-plus he's gone 140, 173, 137, 114, 120 since becoming a starter in 2012. (In fairness, his periphs were better in 2015 than the ERA-plus would indicate.) His three best WAR years (B-Ref) all came between 2012 and 2014. If we use WAR as our measure, this trade is likely to be a blowout in favor of the WS, given that they got a batch of guys - including two potential studs - with six cost-controlled years apiece and Sale is under contract for only three. I have to think they trade either Clay or Pomeranz for a corner IF now. I can't imagine they go into the season betting heavily on Panda as a productive, healthy and committed player. Sale is good not great? Is there a better non-Red Sox LHP in the AL?
Yes, Dombrowski traded potential future value for present value. Dave Cameron did the analysis and figured the value was about equal, assuming that Moncada was a #1 prospect. If Sale generates 15 WAR over the next 3 years that's roughly $83M in excess value. #1 overall prospects are generally worth $75M. #90 prospects about $15M. If the RS brass felt like Moncada was going to fall because some of his holes have been discovered, well they might actually come out ahead even giving Kopech a boost in the prospect rankings.
As for his interview, you really think Dombrowski is going to say anything except that Kopech is going to have a fabulous career? I mean he still has to work with these guys.
The amazing thing about Dave is that he doesn't seem to lose many trades but other GMs keep dealing with him.
One thing that hasn't been mentioned is that as long as there is draft pick compensation, the Red Sox will either be resigning their core or getting picks to help rebuild their core.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 7, 2016 8:40:44 GMT -5
Peter Gammons @pgammo 3h3 hours ago Sale career ERA in NY, Balt, Tor, TB is 1.85
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Dec 7, 2016 8:58:58 GMT -5
For everyone complaining about "gutting the farm system", here's the year the Red Sox need to sign a FA or call up a prospect for each position: C 2022 (Swihart) 1B 2020 (Unless Travis works out then it's 2023) 2B 2022 (Pedroia) SS 2020 (Bogaerts) 3B 2021 (Sandoval) LF 2023 (Benintendi) CF 2021 (JBJ) RF 2021 (Betts)
In other words, the Red Sox have a starting caliber player at all 8 fielding positions for at least the next 3 seasons. That gives you 3 drafts to replenish the farm system. For pitchers:
SP 2020 (Sale) SP 2023 (Price) SP 2020 (Porcello) SP 2022 (ERod) SP 2021 (Wright) Cl 2020 (Kimbrel) RP 2020 (Thornburg) RP 2021 (Smith) RP 2022 (Barnes)
I cherry picked the bullpen and starters a little, but there's turnover in a bullpen every year anyways, but again, you don't really need to sign any big name free agents until 2020 which gives you 3 years to draft and develop players. While the team will obviously make some moves and not everyone will work out (plenty of question marks/short track records for Sandoval, Leon, ERod, Wright, Smith, Bradley, etc), if every player plays to their median expected result, you have about 18 spots locked in for the next 3 seasons.
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sarasoxer
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 7, 2016 9:02:31 GMT -5
Thanks for the link, it should be a required read for those claiming the sky is falling. Excellent article. 2 1/2 years old but I agree, well worth the time to look and think. I am glad that we did not trade from the MLB roster. Moncada and Kopech are likely to be great but they would not help us move forward this year. With Papi's loss, we would have needed compensatory improvement from the roster. What is interesting on this site is that the first reaction to any trade of prospects is nearly 100% negative followed shortly by an equal emotional pendulum swing in reverse. And lots of times by the same individuals. I include myself. Now let's see if we can trade some body(ies) to help restock the farm.
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Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2016 9:04:14 GMT -5
Yes, Dombrowski traded potential future value for present value. Dave Cameron did the analysis and figured the value was about equal, assuming that Moncada was a #1 prospect. If Sale generates 15 WAR over the next 3 years that's roughly $83M in excess value. #1 overall prospects are generally worth $75M. #90 prospects about $15M. If the RS brass felt like Moncada was going to fall because some of his holes have been discovered, well they might actually come out ahead even giving Kopech a boost in the prospect rankings. Kopech is going to get a major boost, though-- he'll likely be in most top 30s. From a straight $/WAR perspective, the Red Sox probably lost this one.
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