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Sale to BOS for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 7, 2016 19:55:23 GMT -5
Good advice. I suggest you take it. You've done nothing but rant with no facts or no data. Nothing. Just hyperbole. But feel free to live in that fantasy world. And childish insults towards DD (i.e. name calling like Dumbrowski) make the poster look like the fool, not DD. It's great we can play armchair GM here. And one can question and discuss the moves made. But the inane insults and baseless rhetoric make people tune out, nit tune in. By the way, I'm happy to make an avatar bet that Moncada never wins an MVP. Well, are you also happy to bet that Kopech never wins a Cy Young? Full disclosure: you can't win said bet until Kopech is out of baseball.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Dec 7, 2016 20:02:14 GMT -5
Anyone who thinks the Red Sox overpayed for Chris Sale should check out what the Nats just gave up for Adam Eaton. An overpay is an overpay regardless. I would rather the Red Sox still had Moncada. Now you're looking at a C level prospect like Diaz (who the Sox just gave up) as the best possible return for Mega Bust Pomeranz. DD torched probably the best farm system in baseball and reduced it to the worst. There's a fine line between being reasonably skeptical about Dombrowski's attitudes towards the farm system after the Kimbrel and Pomeranz deals, but being so angry after the Sale trade makes no sense at all. I think you're just so stuck in your anti-Dombrowskiness that you'd hate any trade he makes. Everybody on SoxProspects loves young players and following their paths into MLB, but when the opportunity arises to trade for a player like Sale, you can afford to make the tough moves. Granted, I agree with all the sentiment that the farm system is immensely weaker than it has been - it objectively is - but there's no logic in thinking this trade in particular was awful for us. I've been as vocal as anyone against Dombrowski's less logical moves, but I can't find any problems at all with this deal. None. The only problem has nothing to do with the value of the deal itself, but, collectively, where the farm system is now.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2016 20:02:55 GMT -5
Good advice. I suggest you take it. You've done nothing but rant with no facts or no data. Nothing. Just hyperbole. But feel free to live in that fantasy world. And childish insults towards DD (i.e. name calling like Dumbrowski) make the poster look like the fool, not DD. It's great we can play armchair GM here. And one can question and discuss the moves made. But the inane insults and baseless rhetoric make people tune out, nit tune in. By the way, I'm happy to make an avatar bet that Moncada never wins an MVP. Well, are you also happy to bet that Kopech never wins a Cy Young? Full disclosure: you can't win said bet until Kopech is out of baseball. I would be happy to take you up on the bet, it is very unlikely Kopech wins a Cy Young. I think that chances are he ends up in the bullpen as a very good closer. Maybe even elite, but closers don't win the Cy Young.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 7, 2016 20:15:05 GMT -5
Eh, depending on if you look at a projection system or extrapolate last year's results with team that lost Papi but dramatically improved its 4-5 starters. Looking at the rest of the AL East, I don't see as it really improves their "playoff" odds much at all. Maybe it improves their chances IN the playoffs, but if they (probably) run into the Cubs, they're what, 50-50 instead of 40-60? As I've said before (and I think it was guidas who said it maybe best), I think it's a terrific short-term trade. They gave up a ton of ceiling but with moderate to high risk. It's done and, hey, go get 'em. My concern is much more with the long-term health of the franchise. This move dramatically shortens their window, unless (as you mention), they get something back for the now-superfluous Buchholz and/or Pomeranz, and Owens, Swihart, Johnson et al become viable regulars. Even then, there's an absolutely cavernous talent hole in the minors now. Barring a repeat 2011 draft, it's unlikely to be refilled in three years. We could just as easily see the 2008-2010 drafts. Dombrowski took a desperation approach, as deepjohn said, and now we'll see how the system rebounds. I don't see this move as a desperation move in the slightest. I will agree with what some have said that this was in a vacuum a great move and even in my mind a slam dunk. The Sox just got a top 5 pitcher in baseball to go along with the cy young winner and Price who I believe will rebound and be the pitcher the Sox paid him to be. There were 6 pitchers last year who pitched 220 innings and now three of them are on the Sox. Having three SPs like that will help the bullpen in the long run too. Trading for Sale has boosted this team a lot and was always going to cost a lot. On the other hand trading prospects is always risky and at the rate DD has traded them probably even foolish. When you throw in all of the other deals (Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Thornburg), this farm system now looks weak and may end up closing the window sooner than it was before. Only time will tell with these deals and it is a calculated risk DD is taking but I'm personally going to sit back and enjoy this possibly great team, on paper this Red Sox team is about as talented as any team we have seen in the last 10 years. Well, we actually probably agree to a fair extent. My personal issue with trading prospects is that they don't need to be "stars" to have a LOT of value. A 3-WAR player who costs 500K a year saves a TON of money, both in terms of $/yr and years of commitment. Even if Kopech and Moncada are just 2-3 WAR players, that's $30M that an he spent elsewhere...say, on Otani or extending Sale, or signing Machado, etc. Having a constant flow of those players, with an occasional star like Betts, creates tremendous salary flexibility. The flip side gamble is...what if Sale gets hurt? Or struggles? Or, given the lack of depth in the INF, Panda stinks? Or Hanley gets hurt? That's why I'm not a fan of uber-team building. Star power is great until it kills the ability of a team to upgrade *severe* weaknesses. Sale adds 3 WAR over his replacement...but that's no more than, say, signing Justin Turner and replacing Panda with him, plus a minor upgrade somewhere else. Without depth, and having no salary flexibility, a lot of things need to break right. *TEAMS* are constructed of 30-35 players, not just one. What the Sox gained in one big move could very well be lost (very quickly) at multiple other positions. And without the boatload of prospects now traded away, there's no MLB-ready talent to plug in, should holes arise. That means very costly replacements, in both $ and traded talent. I use the term "desperation" as what I perceive to be Dombrowski not trusting his own TEAM-building skills, and trying to jump ahead of the pack. Not trusting the TEAM, and putting all of his hopes in one player as the make-or-break. Compare the 2013 Sox (the consummate "team," a whole much greater than the sum of its parts), and the 2013 Tigers, whose uber-rotation couldn't cover for a lack of depth and a shoddily-constructed bullpen. There are lots of possible outcomes the next few years, and if someone only plans on being a fan for those years, this trade could be awesome. I actually think DD got a fairly good "deal." It was very, very reasonable. And I'm ecstatic that they kept Benintendi and Devers (I think Devers is going to be a very surprisingly good defensive 3b and a monster with the bat). I just have very serious concerns about Dombrowski's philosophy. He basically took what should've been the best minor league system in baseball and totally gutted it, without an eye toward the future. It's exactly what he did with the Tigers, where he locked them into a rigid salary structure and doomed them to years of mediocrity. Now, the Sox are internally more talented than the Tigers were, but all that really did was encourage Dombrowski to give up more to fill the needs he wanted. He's been like a bipolar person on a hypomanic spending binge. With a wealth of talent, he's squandering it. My hold-out hope is that he'll somehow recoup *something* with Buchholz and Pomeranz (ideally after extending Pomeranz at a Miley-type deal and rebuilding some of his value). It's that bipolar guy going out and selling his perfectly good Nissan GT-R and leasing a new Ferrari every year for three years, dropping huge down payments and monthly rates, and ending up with nothing. Rather than, say, spending much less, fixing up his nearly-mint Nissan GT-R, that'll hold its value, and outright buying the Ferrari in three years so that he has both. It's just poor resource management, plain and simple. Everyone's excited to drive the Ferrari now...even though it's not much better-performing than the GT-R. It's so shiny and new. But in a few years, we could've had both...the Nissan for winter, Ferrari for summer. Best of both worlds. Now, every year in that Ferrari brings us closer to the realization that, pretty soon, we could be stuck with a Pontiac Aztec and a large mental health bill.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 7, 2016 20:24:00 GMT -5
An overpay is an overpay regardless. I would rather the Red Sox still had Moncada. Now you're looking at a C level prospect like Diaz (who the Sox just gave up) as the best possible return for Mega Bust Pomeranz. DD torched probably the best farm system in baseball and reduced it to the worst. There's a fine line between being reasonably skeptical about Dombrowski's attitudes towards the farm system after the Kimbrel and Pomeranz deals, but being so angry after the Sale trade makes no sense at all. I think you're just so stuck in your anti-Dombrowskiness that you'd hate any trade he makes. Everybody on SoxProspects loves young players and following their paths into MLB, but when the opportunity arises to trade for a player like Sale, you can afford to make the tough moves. Granted, I agree with all the sentiment that the farm system is immensely weaker than it has been - it objectively is - but there's no logic in thinking this trade in particular was awful for us. I've been as vocal as anyone against Dombrowski's less logical moves, but I can't find any problems at all with this deal. None. The only problem has nothing to do with the value of the deal itself, but, collectively, where the farm system is now. Yes. Exactly. This is arguably the best of the three major deals, in value terms (Pomeranz-Espinoza really wasn't so awful, either, value-wise). But the order (this trade makes dealing Espinoza just wasteful) and approach behind them is atrocious. If those other trades hadn't been made, I'd be pretty excited for this one. In light of essentially obliterating a farm that was already top-heavy talent-wise and bottom-heavy development-wise, this trade is just...all backwards.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 7, 2016 20:25:29 GMT -5
... Disagree with this. He's not even close to guys like Lester Kershaw and MadBum. If he's an ace then the Sox are screwed. Never pitched in the post season. Aces can lead their teams to the post season at least once in 4-5 years especially in a garbage division. Sure the royals caught lightning two years in a row. This was a great opportunity for a home grown roster before Dumb Dave showed up. Price is a massive bust. The question with Moncada isn't if he will win an MVP but how many times will he. Awful. All for a good but not great SP Lets leave aside the definition of Ace. It seems to morph as needed to encompass outstanding seasons such as the one Porcello just had. He transformed from bum to Ace in one season. It's so dynamic it's like trying to nail jello to the wall. What your statement does show is a real lack of understanding about the history of the game. There are any number of truly great pitchers in the HoF who were betrayed over and over again by the teams they played for. That's what it is, a team game, It doesn't pivot on any individual, some "Ace" who drives the team where it would like to go. Great position players with everyday jobs are even more valuable than most pitchers. They can't make the team winners either. Mike Trout is the best player of this generation. He plays on a lousy team and he can't transcend that. Claiming that Sale could somehow, through sheer force of will, drive the very bad White Sox into the playoffs by his lonesome is silly and uninformed.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2016 20:27:51 GMT -5
I don't see this move as a desperation move in the slightest. I will agree with what some have said that this was in a vacuum a great move and even in my mind a slam dunk. The Sox just got a top 5 pitcher in baseball to go along with the cy young winner and Price who I believe will rebound and be the pitcher the Sox paid him to be. There were 6 pitchers last year who pitched 220 innings and now three of them are on the Sox. Having three SPs like that will help the bullpen in the long run too. Trading for Sale has boosted this team a lot and was always going to cost a lot. On the other hand trading prospects is always risky and at the rate DD has traded them probably even foolish. When you throw in all of the other deals (Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Thornburg), this farm system now looks weak and may end up closing the window sooner than it was before. Only time will tell with these deals and it is a calculated risk DD is taking but I'm personally going to sit back and enjoy this possibly great team, on paper this Red Sox team is about as talented as any team we have seen in the last 10 years. Well, we actually probably agree to a fair extent. My personal issue with trading prospects is that they don't need to be "stars" to have a LOT of value. A 3-WAR player who costs 500K a year saves a TON of money, both in terms of $/yr and years of commitment. Even if Kopech and Moncada are just 2-3 WAR players, that's $30M that an he spent elsewhere...say, on Otani or extending Sale, or signing Machado, etc. Having a constant flow of those players, with an occasional star like Betts, creates tremendous salary flexibility. The flip side gamble is...what if Sale gets hurt? Or struggles? Or, given the lack of depth in the INF, Panda stinks? Or Hanley gets hurt? That's why I'm not a fan of uber-team building. Star power is great until it kills the ability of a team to upgrade *severe* weaknesses. Sale adds 3 WAR over his replacement...but that's no more than, say, signing Justin Turner and replacing Panda with him, plus a minor upgrade somewhere else. Without depth, and having no salary flexibility, a lot of things need to break right. *TEAMS* are constructed of 30-35 players, not just one. What the Sox gained in one big move could very well be lost (very quickly) at multiple other positions. And without the boatload of prospects now traded away, there's no MLB-ready talent to plug in, should holes arise. That means very costly replacements, in both $ and traded talent. I use the term "desperation" as what I perceive to be Dombrowski not trusting his own TEAM-building skills, and trying to jump ahead of the pack. Not trusting the TEAM, and putting all of his hopes in one player as the make-or-break. Compare the 2013 Sox (the consummate "team," a whole much greater than the sum of its parts), and the 2013 Tigers, whose uber-rotation couldn't cover for a lack of depth and a shoddily-constructed bullpen. There are lots of possible outcomes the next few years, and if someone only plans on being a fan for those years, this trade could be awesome. I actually think DD got a fairly good "deal." It was very, very reasonable. And I'm ecstatic that they kept Benintendi and Devers (I think Devers is going to be a very surprisingly good defensive 3b and a monster with the bat). I just have very serious concerns about Dombrowski's philosophy. He basically took what should've been the best minor league system in baseball and totally gutted it, without an eye toward the future. It's exactly what he did with the Tigers, where he locked them into a rigid salary structure and doomed them to years of mediocrity. Now, the Sox are internally more talented than the Tigers were, but all that really did was encourage Dombrowski to give up more to fill the needs he wanted. He's been like a bipolar person on a hypomanic spending binge. With a wealth of talent, he's squandering it. My hold-out hope is that he'll somehow recoup *something* with Buchholz and Pomeranz (ideally after extending Pomeranz at a Miley-type deal and rebuilding some of his value). It's that bipolar guy going out and selling his perfectly good Nissan GT-R and leasing a new Ferrari every year for three years, dropping huge down payments and monthly rates, and ending up with nothing. Rather than, say, spending much less, fixing up his nearly-mint Nissan GT-R, that'll hold its value, and outright buying the Ferrari in three years so that he has both. It's just poor resource management, plain and simple. Everyone's excited to drive the Ferrari now...even though it's not much better-performing than the GT-R. It's so shiny and new. But in a few years, we could've had both...the Nissan for winter, Ferrari for summer. Best of both worlds. Now, every year in that Ferrari brings us closer to the realization that, pretty soon, we could be stuck with a Pontiac Aztec and a large mental health bill. In a way I might disagree with you about DD not trusting his team building skills. I think that he was looking at this Sox team before the Sale trade thinking it was a good team, now he made the trade to make it in his mind a great team. He is going all in on building HIS team and not Cheringtons or Theos. On paper this team is among the most talented in the league. This has generally always been his team building strategy and I think he is just as confident in it as always.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 7, 2016 21:08:33 GMT -5
Articulately said!!! I agree!!
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Post by theghostofjoecronin on Dec 7, 2016 22:05:14 GMT -5
Anyone who thinks the Red Sox overpayed for Chris Sale should check out what the Nats just gave up for Adam Eaton. I don't think it was a huge overpay for the Nats. Eaton is one of the most underrated players in baseball. Easily one of the best defensive outfielders, extremely good on base guy with solid speed and some power...he's the ideal leadoff hitter. Had a 6.2 WAR last season, which was good for 13th in the majors according to BR. Based on his team friendly contract of less than $8m/year over the next FIVE years, he will have a surplus value of at least $80m based on WAR projections. That's pretty good value if you ask me. I would say that he has similar value to Jackie Bradley, in terms of contract length (I believe JBJ has 1 more year of control, but could end up making a lot more than Eaton by the time he's a FA) and also talent level with both of them being elite defensive OFers who are high OBP guys (JBJ has more power /Eaton more speed). The Red Sox didn't want to part with JBJ for an elite SP, so it goes to show how valuable those players are. The Nats might have had some concerns with Giolito. He lacked command of his fastball last season and hasn't really developed his changeup like they hoped he would. The talent is still there for him to succeed, but it looks like it will take a few years for the whole package to come together. They sold high, and as we've seen with the frustrating Henry Owens....if you can't command your fastball at the major league level, you will not have much success against professional hitters. The Nats are in win now mode like us, and they feel like Eaton will help them win moreso over the next few years than Giolito would have. We are the same way with Sale over Moncada. Both moves make the respective teams much better, but the trades also hurt the depth. Nats lack a good fallback option if one of their starters get hurt, and the Sox don't really have a plan B for 3rd base if Sandoval gets injured. Hopefully it works out for both of us, and we can be World Series rivals for the next few years.
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sarcasmo
Rookie
Formerly known as mtomeo
Posts: 91
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Post by sarcasmo on Dec 7, 2016 23:03:44 GMT -5
Anyone who thinks the Red Sox overpayed for Chris Sale should check out what the Nats just gave up for Adam Eaton. I don't think it was a huge overpay for the Nats. Eaton is one of the most underrated players in baseball. Easily one of the best defensive outfielders, extremely good on base guy with solid speed and some power...he's the ideal leadoff hitter. Had a 6.2 WAR last season, which was good for 13th in the majors according to BR. Based on his team friendly contract of less than $8m/year over the next FIVE years, he will have a surplus value of at least $80m based on WAR projections. That's pretty good value if you ask me. I would say that he has similar value to Jackie Bradley, in terms of contract length (I believe JBJ has 1 more year of control, but could end up making a lot more than Eaton by the time he's a FA) and also talent level with both of them being elite defensive OFers who are high OBP guys (JBJ has more power /Eaton more speed). The Red Sox didn't want to part with JBJ for an elite SP, so it goes to show how valuable those players are. The Nats might have had some concerns with Giolito. He lacked command of his fastball last season and hasn't really developed his changeup like they hoped he would. The talent is still there for him to succeed, but it looks like it will take a few years for the whole package to come together. They sold high, and as we've seen with the frustrating Henry Owens....if you can't command your fastball at the major league level, you will not have much success against professional hitters. The Nats are in win now mode like us, and they feel like Eaton will help them win moreso over the next few years than Giolito would have. We are the same way with Sale over Moncada. Both moves make the respective teams much better, but the trades also hurt the depth. Nats lack a good fallback option if one of their starters get hurt, and the Sox don't really have a plan B for 3rd base if Sandoval gets injured. Hopefully it works out for both of us, and we can be World Series rivals for the next few years. I don't disagree with any of what you said. Eaton is a heck of a ballplayer and Giolito has warts, but the Nats also traded a 22 year-old SP/top-100 prospect (Lopez) and the #29 pick from 2016 (Dunning). Quite the haul. Hard to just narrow it down to Eaton for Giolito.
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Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2016 23:06:50 GMT -5
World series odds are meaningless, so are projections, when it comes to high stakes gambling of trading away even one prospect with an immediate high ceiling, for someone who, in the best case, is a 3 WAR upgrade for three years. /projections are meaningless [ literally the same sentence]/this guy only projects to be 3 WAR better
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Post by jmei on Dec 7, 2016 23:09:47 GMT -5
The Javier Baez who put up a 94 wRC+ last year? He's a fine player, but if Moncada is Baez 2.0, this was a fine trade for the Red Sox. That's if you think Baez has no more offensive upside. He was a 3-WAR player last year, and exactly the type of swing-and-miss project who has a lot more room for improvement. He's still 3 years short of his prime. Moncada probably lacks the defensive value, but walks a lot more. My point is simply that a guy with huge tools who struggles at 21 isn't necessarily a lost cause, and can be an above-average regular very quickly. Maybe not the ideal parallel, but ARod struggled (as did Hanley, though it's tough to call 2K in 2PA a fair sample) in his debut as well. By the time he had Baez's experience in the majors, Alex Rodriguez was literally a nine win player.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,173
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Post by nomar on Dec 7, 2016 23:21:34 GMT -5
The level of improvement it would take from Kopech to become a Cy Young pitcher considering his command is so ridiculous that it's not worth even discussing. Most scouting services peg him as either a 2/3 or a closer.
I don't get how people think it's more likely that both Moncada and Kopech come close to their ceilings than it is for the Sox to win a WS over the next few years. It's not.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 7, 2016 23:44:30 GMT -5
Calling a three-and-a-half win upgrade a "marginal improvement" is stretching the bounds of language. Not when it's coupled with losing Ortiz. Is Ortiz really gone? Last I heard, he was "thinking."
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 7, 2016 23:50:05 GMT -5
Anyone who thinks the Red Sox overpayed for Chris Sale should check out what the Nats just gave up for Adam Eaton. I don't think it was a huge overpay for the Nats. Eaton is one of the most underrated players in baseball. Easily one of the best defensive outfielders, extremely good on base guy with solid speed and some power...he's the ideal leadoff hitter. Had a 6.2 WAR last season, which was good for 13th in the majors according to BR. Based on his team friendly contract of less than $8m/year over the next FIVE years, he will have a surplus value of at least $80m based on WAR projections. That's pretty good value if you ask me. I would say that he has similar value to Jackie Bradley, in terms of contract length (I believe JBJ has 1 more year of control, but could end up making a lot more than Eaton by the time he's a FA) and also talent level with both of them being elite defensive OFers who are high OBP guys (JBJ has more power /Eaton more speed). The Red Sox didn't want to part with JBJ for an elite SP, so it goes to show how valuable those players are. The Nats might have had some concerns with Giolito. He lacked command of his fastball last season and hasn't really developed his changeup like they hoped he would. The talent is still there for him to succeed, but it looks like it will take a few years for the whole package to come together. They sold high, and as we've seen with the frustrating Henry Owens....if you can't command your fastball at the major league level, you will not have much success against professional hitters. The Nats are in win now mode like us, and they feel like Eaton will help them win moreso over the next few years than Giolito would have. We are the same way with Sale over Moncada. Both moves make the respective teams much better, but the trades also hurt the depth. Nats lack a good fallback option if one of their starters get hurt, and the Sox don't really have a plan B for 3rd base if Sandoval gets injured. Hopefully it works out for both of us, and we can be World Series rivals for the next few years. I agree with just about everything you said, but I think JBJ is controllable for 4 more years, not 5 like Eaton is. Regardless, he's still incredibly valuable despite the year less of control.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 8, 2016 0:03:29 GMT -5
They all are. If they stay healthy then 15-20 wins isn't out of the question. Bradley and Betts just about did that all by themselves this past season. The higher end of that is absurd for any team's outfield.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Dec 8, 2016 0:48:51 GMT -5
Anyone who thinks the Red Sox overpayed for Chris Sale should check out what the Nats just gave up for Adam Eaton. I don't think it was a huge overpay for the Nats. Eaton is one of the most underrated players in baseball. Easily one of the best defensive outfielders, extremely good on base guy with solid speed and some power...he's the ideal leadoff hitter. Had a 6.2 WAR last season, which was good for 13th in the majors according to BR. Based on his team friendly contract of less than $8m/year over the next FIVE years, he will have a surplus value of at least $80m based on WAR projections. That's pretty good value if you ask me. I would say that he has similar value to Jackie Bradley, in terms of contract length (I believe JBJ has 1 more year of control, but could end up making a lot more than Eaton by the time he's a FA) and also talent level with both of them being elite defensive OFers who are high OBP guys (JBJ has more power /Eaton more speed). The Red Sox didn't want to part with JBJ for an elite SP, so it goes to show how valuable those players are. The Nats might have had some concerns with Giolito. He lacked command of his fastball last season and hasn't really developed his changeup like they hoped he would. The talent is still there for him to succeed, but it looks like it will take a few years for the whole package to come together. They sold high, and as we've seen with the frustrating Henry Owens....if you can't command your fastball at the major league level, you will not have much success against professional hitters. The Nats are in win now mode like us, and they feel like Eaton will help them win moreso over the next few years than Giolito would have. We are the same way with Sale over Moncada. Both moves make the respective teams much better, but the trades also hurt the depth. Nats lack a good fallback option if one of their starters get hurt, and the Sox don't really have a plan B for 3rd base if Sandoval gets injured. Hopefully it works out for both of us, and we can be World Series rivals for the next few years. I think calling Eaton a 6 win player is extremely generous. For one thing, a large amount of that value is based on his defense which was good for literally the 1st time in his career last year. So for one thing, there's a sample size issue. He's a nice leadoff hitter, but the Nationals could have simply traded for Brett Gardner for a fraction of the price. He's also been signed to play CF, and he's been a horrible defensive CF his entire career. I think the Nationals are really the only team that valued him as a 6 win player. I certainly wouldn't value Eaton as the 13th best player in the league. I think Eaton's true value is the 3-4 win production he put up in 2014 and 2015, which is a nice player, but not even close to worth Giolito, Lopez and a 1st round talent.
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Post by soxjim on Dec 8, 2016 0:57:39 GMT -5
Although there are the seemingly inevitable unfortunate gratuitous "jokes" (Sale is a 'marginal' upgrade over the Red Sox 5th starter), @telson's analysis in its central point is correct. This team has essentially a 3-year window (with maybe a decent 4th), before it's barren, maybe for a long time (maybe like the Tigers are about to enter?). Now, I also don't think the problem is with the Sale trade, which more or less is fair. It's with the inane Kimbrel, Pomeranz, and Thornburg ones. Those are indefensible, and they have stripped bare the farm system so that in 3 years, there is literally nothing left to replace all those players who will have graduated to FA. And I really hate the facile, well you have 3 years of drafts to replenish; look, the same team (sans a lot of the brainpower) that did such a great job in building such a great farm (and which Dombrowski graciously h/t), also drafted Trey Ball (ouch that has really hurt them), Kolben Vitik, Chavis, Matt Barnes, etc. It's a chance game, and all one can hope to do is move the odds slightly in your favor, and then when you hit big, *don't squander it* And the new CBA makes it even harder for the Red Sox to take advantage of their financial muscle; face it, Moncada wasn't a credit to their international scouts, the Red Sox just were willing to pay the most for him - that's now illegal in the new CBA. Now if they make 3 straight World Series, you can argue it will have been worth it. But I don't remember feeling any less ill in 2014-2015, despite 2013. The Red Sox had a chance to have a sustainable 8-year run or so; Dombrowski has almost guaranteed that it's at most 4 There is no such thing as knowing about an 8-year run in advance. That is assuming, for example, that kids who are 18 and in low-A now will turn into huge parts of that run. Who knows? So it is far fairer to say they have a great chance at a top run for 3 years instead of a chance at a longer run. Further: Sale is just turning 28, as is Porcello. In terms of age, the window is bigger than 3 years. Health is always an issue -- but, again, would you rather have a few guys who have thrown 200+ innings in the bigs, or some kid who has just broken 50 for the first time? The Pomeranz trade might have been an overpay. But we can't know. If he wins 12 games this year and the Pads end up getting nothing? Then it was fine. I can't imagine how one can dislike the Thorburg trade -- guy has sick scouting reports, had a great year last year. They gave up very little (I know, I know... a possible strong utility man). I don't get the prospect hoarders: you play to win. They want to win this coming year, and they're lined up to have a great chance for a few years to come. In 2021, when everything across all boards is different, we can reconvene and ask where things stand. But looking at this coming season: would you rather have Sale every 5 days, or Moncada in AA or AAA? I don't actually watch minor league games, so I prefer the former. 2018 season I'll consider when 2017 season is over. Great post. A couple others made some great comments in that we aren't the Tampa Bay Rays when it comes to spending. Another was - I wasn't much in favor of trying to get Sale just like another poster said because I thought it would be more players too. Adding an ACE isn't a small thing when all you've lost last year in terms of hitting is one enormous bat but we scored 100 more runs that the opposition.
Now we have the option to trade starting pitching. And I hate to say this - but Henry Owens or Brian Johnson could show something in a package (that little bit could lead to a productive young "Brock Holt" which solidifies the bench- and if you trade ERod while he is impressive - you pick up other good assets that either contribute immediately or get some hot prospects that soon may be able to replace a starter that you can trade.
How bad is our minor leagues when we'll have Swihart and maybe even ERod down there and Sam Travis is okay? Juts because it doesn't count in the rating system, they are potential good to really really good players. Further trades will be made. I for one thought our minor league system was a bit overrated (that doesn't mean I didn't think it was better-than-good) these last several years in that we had no real pitching prospects above a. And what is the most expensive commodity to get? Pitching. We have it. SO for now we're in the sweet spot. It's an exciting time.
I'll admit I'm a bit bias. I'm really not a big fan of Moncada. SO when one of the posters asked if I'd be surprised in two years if his WAR would be higher than Sale's? I would say yes. And to the poster who suggested he may be a multi-mvp? I say no way.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 8, 2016 1:10:43 GMT -5
I don't think it was a huge overpay for the Nats. Eaton is one of the most underrated players in baseball. Easily one of the best defensive outfielders, extremely good on base guy with solid speed and some power...he's the ideal leadoff hitter. Had a 6.2 WAR last season, which was good for 13th in the majors according to BR. Based on his team friendly contract of less than $8m/year over the next FIVE years, he will have a surplus value of at least $80m based on WAR projections. That's pretty good value if you ask me. I would say that he has similar value to Jackie Bradley, in terms of contract length (I believe JBJ has 1 more year of control, but could end up making a lot more than Eaton by the time he's a FA) and also talent level with both of them being elite defensive OFers who are high OBP guys (JBJ has more power /Eaton more speed). The Red Sox didn't want to part with JBJ for an elite SP, so it goes to show how valuable those players are. The Nats might have had some concerns with Giolito. He lacked command of his fastball last season and hasn't really developed his changeup like they hoped he would. The talent is still there for him to succeed, but it looks like it will take a few years for the whole package to come together. They sold high, and as we've seen with the frustrating Henry Owens....if you can't command your fastball at the major league level, you will not have much success against professional hitters. The Nats are in win now mode like us, and they feel like Eaton will help them win moreso over the next few years than Giolito would have. We are the same way with Sale over Moncada. Both moves make the respective teams much better, but the trades also hurt the depth. Nats lack a good fallback option if one of their starters get hurt, and the Sox don't really have a plan B for 3rd base if Sandoval gets injured. Hopefully it works out for both of us, and we can be World Series rivals for the next few years. I think calling Eaton a 6 win player is extremely generous. For one thing, a large amount of that value is based on his defense which was good for literally the 1st time in his career last year. So for one thing, there's a sample size issue. He's a nice leadoff hitter, but the Nationals could have simply traded for Brett Gardner for a fraction of the price. He's also been signed to play CF, and he's been a horrible defensive CF his entire career. I think the Nationals are really the only team that valued him as a 6 win player. I certainly wouldn't value Eaton as the 13th best player in the league. I think Eaton's true value is the 3-4 win production he put up in 2014 and 2015, which is a nice player, but not even close to worth Giolito, Lopez and a 1st round talent. I agree with most of what you said. He was good in CF in 2014, but that's the only season and he was bad in 2015. I just don't see a 6 win player last year given he played most games in RF, but is listed as a CF. I wonder if his stats were adjusted for him playing the majority of his games in RF? His bat is great in CF, but i don't see how he had a 4.1 offensive bwar as a RF last year. He was elite though as a RF last year with 22 DRS.
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 8, 2016 1:15:16 GMT -5
World series odds are meaningless, so are projections, when it comes to high stakes gambling of trading away even one prospect with an immediate high ceiling, for someone who, in the best case, is a 3 WAR upgrade for three years. /projections are meaningless [ literally the same sentence]/this guy only projects to be 3 WAR better The projection of the 3 WAR upgrade is meaningless [much lower confidence level compared to] when you are trading away a prospect with an immediate high ceiling [much higher confidence level]. The 3 WAR upgrade, in the best case, has too many confounding co-variables (how sure are you of the WAR of the player being replaced) to base a trade like this, of a prospect with an immediate high ceiling. Prospects with immediate high ceilings are the greatest value in all of baseball. There might be 10-15 of them in a year. The Sox just traded away two. Think of it this way. If the FO had traded away Betts and Bogaerts back in 2013, when both were ready to make the jump, for three years of a pitcher who might have been a 3 WAR upgrade, and would now be gone, what a disaster that would have been. It's easier to see these things in hindsight, but that's how this trade should, in all likelihood, turn out. It looks be the most desperate trade in the history of the Red Sox, a crime against the fanbase, unless the Sox get lucky and Yoan or Kopech bust. If they wanted an upgrade to a marquee name to boost revenue, they could have just paid for somebody.* Money is something they should have plenty of. Top flight MLB-ready prospects are extremely rare. *In another post, I used the fangraphs article to show how they could have gotten a lot of excess value from Miggy, over the next 4-5 years, and enormous star value, and then taken the risk of one blowout year in 2023, if at age 40 he can't produce. The real culprit here is that ownership has forced Dombrowski's hand by requiring him to stay under the luxury tax cap. I suspect collusion among the teams' owners.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 8, 2016 1:29:01 GMT -5
There is no such thing as knowing about an 8-year run in advance. That is assuming, for example, that kids who are 18 and in low-A now will turn into huge parts of that run. Who knows? So it is far fairer to say they have a great chance at a top run for 3 years instead of a chance at a longer run. Further: Sale is just turning 28, as is Porcello. In terms of age, the window is bigger than 3 years. Health is always an issue -- but, again, would you rather have a few guys who have thrown 200+ innings in the bigs, or some kid who has just broken 50 for the first time? The Pomeranz trade might have been an overpay. But we can't know. If he wins 12 games this year and the Pads end up getting nothing? Then it was fine. I can't imagine how one can dislike the Thorburg trade -- guy has sick scouting reports, had a great year last year. They gave up very little (I know, I know... a possible strong utility man). I don't get the prospect hoarders: you play to win. They want to win this coming year, and they're lined up to have a great chance for a few years to come. In 2021, when everything across all boards is different, we can reconvene and ask where things stand. But looking at this coming season: would you rather have Sale every 5 days, or Moncada in AA or AAA? I don't actually watch minor league games, so I prefer the former. 2018 season I'll consider when 2017 season is over. Great post. A couple others made some great comments in that we aren't the Tampa Bay Rays when it comes to spending. Another was - I wasn't much in favor of trying to get Sale just like another poster said because I thought it would be more players too. Adding an ACE isn't a small thing when all you've lost last year in terms of hitting is one enormous bat but we scored 100 more runs that the opposition.
Now we have the option to trade starting pitching. And I hate to say this - but Henry Owens or Brian Johnson could show something in a package (that little bit could lead to a productive young "Brock Holt" which solidifies the bench- and if you trade ERod while he is impressive - you pick up other good assets that either contribute immediately or get some hot prospects that soon may be able to replace a starter that you can trade.
How bad is our minor leagues when we'll have Swihart and maybe even ERod down there and Sam Travis is okay? Juts because it doesn't count in the rating system, they are potential good to really really good players. Further trades will be made. I for one thought our minor league system was a bit overrated (that doesn't mean I didn't think it was better-than-good) these last several years in that we had no real pitching prospects above a. And what is the most expensive commodity to get? Pitching. We have it. SO for now we're in the sweet spot. It's an exciting time.
I'll admit I'm a bit bias. I'm really not a big fan of Moncada. SO when one of the posters asked if I'd be surprised in two years if his WAR would be higher than Sale's? I would say yes. And to the poster who suggested he may be a multi-mvp? I say no way.
I think there's a lot of people who devalued Moncada based on a short sample size where he was overmatch and struggled with breaking pitches. The "see - that's his issue, another Beau Gentry type" kind of thing. I honestly think that it's very possible Moncada could have a higher WAR than Sale a couple of years from now. Sale is a fantastic pitcher. He's been quite healthy and has pitched a ton of innings. I'll be honest though - that deliver of his makes me think that he could be an injury waiting to happen - yeah you can say that about any pitcher, but that delivery does concern me. But say Sale is who we think he is - the Sox get a great pitcher for 3 years. Moncada is a guy who I think will be a .300 hitter with walks with speed and with power. That is quite valuable. He might be miscast at 2b. I think he'd be better in the outfield. And he's quite young. Maybe he struggles for a half a season or a year in the majors, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this kid be an all-star by his second full season in the majors. He's got a ton of talent. Will he win an MVP? Who knows? David Ortiz never won an MVP (except in the post-season), so honestly who cares and how relevant is it? For that matter Sale hasn't won a Cy Young award. So what? Moncada represents a player who could very well be a superstar by 2019 and a player who is among the very best in that 2019 - 2023 window.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 8, 2016 1:49:36 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox lost a major talent in Moncada, one that will be a superstar long after Chris Sale has left the Red Sox. In a way this deal is kind of a Beckett/Hanley Ramirez kind of deal. If Sale helps lead the Sox to a World Championship (the way Beckett did) then Moncada can be a superstar (the way young Hanley was) and it'll be win-win.
If the Red Sox go the way of the Tigers, Sale underwhelms and/or splits in 3 years and Moncada becomes a superstar the deal could look quite different, especially if the Red Sox struggle to bring young controllable talent aboard as guys like Bogaerts, Bradley, Porcello, and Sale leave. Then if Kopech becomes Syndergaard version 2, it will really sting. I'm not convinced that Kopech becomes a top of the rotation starter, but I think at worst he'll be a dominating reliever. And honestly, I'm not convinced he can't harness his control somewhat, but my certainty of Kopech is far less than my certainty that Moncada is going to be comparable to what Betts is and what Benintendi is going to be, too.
Again, this is a deal that certainly helps the Red Sox over the next 3 years. No two ways about it. Hard to complain about getting one of the best pitchers in baseball.
My concern is (as Telson has written in some posts) the philosophy that I think works kind of like a treadmill.
I was listening to Dombrowski talk and what he said concerned me. He basically said when you have a chance to win "You HAVE to go for it."
So let's see, we're here in Dec 2016, already had a good chance to win the division, but he's spending two talents that are likely to impact the Red Sox heavily by the beginning of the next decade.
Fine, so what happens if the Sox are contending as expected, and an injury crops up or a disappointing performance. Say Kimbrel has a complete meltdown. Does that mean Devers is going to get sacrificed next because the newest relief flavor of the month is all that stands between the Red Sox and ultimate victory and they have to "Go for it!"?
At what point does it stop? I mean last season, the Red Sox needed starting pitching help so they sacrificed another major talent that would likely have impacted the Red Sox in the early part of next decade in Espinoza. Now Pomeranz at best is their 5th starter, more likely a lefty out of the pen, and worse, traded for less than what he cost to acquire.
I just don't like this "We [always] have to win now or else and we have to go for it [as in go all in]". Sooner or later you lose that war with the treadmill and you fall off.
I think by time 2020 comes around, the Red Sox will be facing mass exodus and the only way to be competitive will to be spend big in the free agent market because young talent won't be around either because they can't replenish it that fast and/or Dombrowski traded whatever was developing because there was a need at the time that they had to fill no matter what the cost.
He thinned out the depth in the Kimbrel and Thornburg deals, but I can live with that because Margot, who was clearly blocked in Boston and was not going to be part of the next core, and the others were not irreplaceable pieces, and he got guys that on paper should be dominant relievers, which these days can be quite valuable.
But the clearing out of the blue chippers, guys that can be core members of a Red Sox team in the next decade, is concerning because these guys won't be around as the the core of the 2016 - 2019 teams leave via free agency around 2020 and 2021 (can't afford to keep them all - Mookie is the one definite keeper and he'll cost a ton.) So since the farm won't be an option, they'd be reduced to buying their team which is not a good way to build.
Of course this plays very well in Boston where there's a lot of shortsightedness and desire for a big splash. Dombrowski is a perfect guy for the market. I just wonder how John Henry could work so well with Theo, but then turn around and change his philosophy on the dime with the way Dombrowski does business. To Theo, the farm was there to build the core of the team and sustain the talent base. To Dombrowski the farm is there to act as currency to get whatever top shelf talent there is. I didn't think Dombrowski would operate as he did in Detroit, but I'm wrong. He's doing the exact same thing.
So if the Red Sox don't win over the next three seasons....
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 8, 2016 2:01:12 GMT -5
/projections are meaningless [ literally the same sentence]/this guy only projects to be 3 WAR better The projection of the 3 WAR upgrade is meaningless [much lower confidence level compared to] when you are trading away a prospect with an immediate high ceiling [much higher confidence level]. The 3 WAR upgrade, in the best case, has too many confounding co-variables (how sure are you of the WAR of the player being replaced) to base a trade like this, of a prospect with an immediate high ceiling. Prospects with immediate high ceilings are the greatest value in all of baseball. There might be 10-15 of them in a year. The Sox just traded away two. Think of it this way. If the FO had traded away Betts and Bogaerts back in 2013, when both were ready to make the jump, for three years of a pitcher who might have been a 3 WAR upgrade, and would now be gone, what a disaster that would have been. It's easier to see these things in hindsight, but that's how this trade should, in all likelihood, turn out. It looks be the most desperate trade in the history of the Red Sox, a crime against the fanbase, unless the Sox get lucky and Yoan or Kopech bust. If they wanted an upgrade to a marquee name to boost revenue, they could have just paid for somebody.* Money is something they should have plenty of. Top flight MLB-ready prospects are extremely rare. *In another post, I used the fangraphs article to show how they could have gotten a lot of excess value from Miggy, over the next 4-5 years, and enormous star value, and then taken the risk of one blowout year in 2023, if at age 40 he can't produce. The real culprit here is that ownership has forced Dombrowski's hand by requiring him to stay under the luxury tax cap. I suspect collusion among the teams' owners. The thing your missing is that Moncada and Kopech aren't immediate high ceiling prospects. Moncada clearly isn't ready and neither is Kopech. How did Moncada do in majors last year? Your comparing Moncada and Kopech to two guys that did well in there first call ups at age 20 and 21. Not saying Moncada and Kopech won't develop into good players, but they have things they need to work on. Moncada needs to work on his strikeouts and his D and Kopech needs to improve his control and off field behavior. An immediate high ceiling prospect is Benintendi, a guy that is clearly ready to mash major league pitching. I wouldn't have made this deal, but I can understand it. The age old saying that pitching and D wins Championships. This isn't just adding a name to bost revenue like Sandoval was, this is a true Ace pitcher on a great contract. An elite strikeout pitcher that should play well in the hitter friendly parks of Fenway and Yankee Stadium. As much as I hate staying under luxury tax, I can understand it. New CBA will take away your ability to add young talent if your a luxury tax team. Losing 20-25% of your international budget could mean not getting the next Bogaerts, Devers or Espinoza. Losing draft picks and draft pool money could cost you the next Groome type player. In the new CBA going over luxury tax to sign players has much stiffer penalties than under the old CBA. You can't just lose a 1st round pick and go out and sign a Moncada anymore. For these reason risking what 212 million on Miggy to preform through his age 40 season makes no sense. You are much better off extending our young players. If your going to spend 200 million, give it to Betts. You also are overlooking that we would have had to send a bunch of prospects to Detroit to get Miggy. There is collusion amoung owners to drive down salaries and keep the big market teams from spending. It's the so called small and mid market teams, that have no clue how to run a team. They just want to make more money and it makes me sick, but there is nothing we can do about it.
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Post by soxjim on Dec 8, 2016 2:20:03 GMT -5
Great post. A couple others made some great comments in that we aren't the Tampa Bay Rays when it comes to spending. Another was - I wasn't much in favor of trying to get Sale just like another poster said because I thought it would be more players too. Adding an ACE isn't a small thing when all you've lost last year in terms of hitting is one enormous bat but we scored 100 more runs that the opposition.
Now we have the option to trade starting pitching. And I hate to say this - but Henry Owens or Brian Johnson could show something in a package (that little bit could lead to a productive young "Brock Holt" which solidifies the bench- and if you trade ERod while he is impressive - you pick up other good assets that either contribute immediately or get some hot prospects that soon may be able to replace a starter that you can trade.
How bad is our minor leagues when we'll have Swihart and maybe even ERod down there and Sam Travis is okay? Juts because it doesn't count in the rating system, they are potential good to really really good players. Further trades will be made. I for one thought our minor league system was a bit overrated (that doesn't mean I didn't think it was better-than-good) these last several years in that we had no real pitching prospects above a. And what is the most expensive commodity to get? Pitching. We have it. SO for now we're in the sweet spot. It's an exciting time.
I'll admit I'm a bit bias. I'm really not a big fan of Moncada. SO when one of the posters asked if I'd be surprised in two years if his WAR would be higher than Sale's? I would say yes. And to the poster who suggested he may be a multi-mvp? I say no way.
I think there's a lot of people who devalued Moncada based on a short sample size where he was overmatch and struggled with breaking pitches. The "see - that's his issue, another Beau Gentry type" kind of thing. I honestly think that it's very possible Moncada could have a higher WAR than Sale a couple of years from now. Sale is a fantastic pitcher. He's been quite healthy and has pitched a ton of innings. I'll be honest though - that deliver of his makes me think that he could be an injury waiting to happen - yeah you can say that about any pitcher, but that delivery does concern me. But say Sale is who we think he is - the Sox get a great pitcher for 3 years. Moncada is a guy who I think will be a .300 hitter with walks with speed and with power. That is quite valuable. He might be miscast at 2b. I think he'd be better in the outfield. And he's quite young. Maybe he struggles for a half a season or a year in the majors, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this kid be an all-star by his second full season in the majors. He's got a ton of talent. Will he win an MVP? Who knows? David Ortiz never won an MVP (except in the post-season), so honestly who cares and how relevant is it? For that matter Sale hasn't won a Cy Young award. So what? Moncada represents a player who could very well be a superstar by 2019 and a player who is among the very best in that 2019 - 2023 window. Where you see warning signs with Sale I see them with Moncada. I don't see him as a .300 hitter either. When I made the post of the poster asking "would I be surprised if Moncada had a higher WAR in 2 years than Sale" in no way am I disparaging anyone that says "no." I just think he won't.
I understand what you're saying. You see him as a .300 hitter. I don't see the .300 hitter. I think further he is going to struggle a lot from the right side. I don't know much about his eye- pretty good I suppose-- but the way he struck out . . . Anyhow, the moment I've seen him in big league play, the guy looks big. I don't think his body can hold up as a base stealer which also is a plus in his write-up. Yes he has speed and will for a while but his base stealing imo is hyped a bit. But imo a guy who won't .300, won't be much of a glove, and won't be much of a base stealer, he had better be a home run and doubles machine to beat out Sale two years from now. And because I don't see what you see as Sale being an injury threat more than any other pitcher, I like this trade.
Further, I would be shocked if he was an all-star in year two unless his team has nothing and he gets the "Brock Holt invite." He hasn't hit for average. Maybe he can take league by storm - but I wouldn't bet on it.
You're right about who cares about MVP-- and I didn't start it. It was another poster who is very high on Moncada that asked if anyone would be surprised. I understand your point. You may very well nail it. I just don't believe it --which is why I added the caveat that my interest in Moncada waned. The moment I saw Beni I thought his bat looked super. On this site I brought up during his initial good run that he should be batting ahead of Shaw. There were back and forths between other posters on it-- but I saw Beni. The dude just reacts like a hitter (I listened to the Speir on here and I think Beni could be what Alex suggested he heard he could be a doubles machine- thus my interests hasn't waned with Beni) while I see Moncada as "power" though not much of a reactor. His rh hitting had me worried a little- not a lot - and I'm not calling him a future .250 hitter. I see power but not a .300 bat.
And . . . I also read soxpropsects from two years ago and they were wondering if Devers could stick at 3rd. This past year he won a glove award in the minors. He showed something in the field. I realize Moncada has been jerked around 2bd ot 3b to OF but from what I recall, he wasn't very good at 2nd or 3rd. He could wind up being terrific. But to me - whether it be work ethic or intangibles, my trust decreased/ interest waned. I see the Devers jump in the field while I get the feeling Moncada just "didn't."
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Post by azblue on Dec 8, 2016 2:23:28 GMT -5
From mlbtraderumors.com (I guess this tells us why DD felt like he had to pay what he did for Sale)
The Nationals were outbid by the Red Sox in their attempt to acquire Chris Sale, but that wasn’t for lack of trying, as Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (Twitter links). Remarkably, the Nationals were willing to deal outfielder Victor Robles and both their top young starting pitching prospects, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, for Sale. But the White Sox instead opted for the Red Sox’ incredible offer, topped by Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech.
Robles, Giolito and Lopez are the Nationals’ top three prospects, according to MLB.com. All three of them rank among the top 40 in baseball and Robles and Giolito rank among the top ten. Robles has earned praise as a five-tool talent with good hitting ability and exceptional speed. Both Giolito and Lopez could make an immediate impact in a big-league rotation, and all three players have enormous upside once they reach the big leagues for good. That the White Sox were able to get one offer this good is incredible in its own right; that they had to leave it on the table because they found one they liked better is even more so.
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