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Sale to BOS for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz
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Post by deepjohn on Dec 8, 2016 2:28:29 GMT -5
The projection of the 3 WAR upgrade is meaningless [much lower confidence level compared to] when you are trading away a prospect with an immediate high ceiling [much higher confidence level]. The 3 WAR upgrade, in the best case, has too many confounding co-variables (how sure are you of the WAR of the player being replaced) to base a trade like this, of a prospect with an immediate high ceiling. Prospects with immediate high ceilings are the greatest value in all of baseball. There might be 10-15 of them in a year. The Sox just traded away two. Think of it this way. If the FO had traded away Betts and Bogaerts back in 2013, when both were ready to make the jump, for three years of a pitcher who might have been a 3 WAR upgrade, and would now be gone, what a disaster that would have been. It's easier to see these things in hindsight, but that's how this trade should, in all likelihood, turn out. It looks be the most desperate trade in the history of the Red Sox, a crime against the fanbase, unless the Sox get lucky and Yoan or Kopech bust. If they wanted an upgrade to a marquee name to boost revenue, they could have just paid for somebody.* Money is something they should have plenty of. Top flight MLB-ready prospects are extremely rare. *In another post, I used the fangraphs article to show how they could have gotten a lot of excess value from Miggy, over the next 4-5 years, and enormous star value, and then taken the risk of one blowout year in 2023, if at age 40 he can't produce. The real culprit here is that ownership has forced Dombrowski's hand by requiring him to stay under the luxury tax cap. I suspect collusion among the teams' owners. The thing your missing is that Moncada and Kopech aren't immediate high ceiling prospects. Moncada clearly isn't ready and neither is Kopech. How did Moncada do in majors last year? Your comparing Moncada and Kopech to two guys that did well in there first call ups at age 20 and 21. Not saying Moncada and Kopech won't develop into good players, but they have things they need to work on. Moncada needs to work on his strikeouts and his D and Kopech needs to improve his control and off field behavior. An immediate high ceiling prospect is Benintendi, a guy that is clearly ready to mash major league pitching. I wouldn't have made this deal, but I can understand it. The age old saying that pitching and D wins Championships. This isn't just adding a name to bost revenue like Sandoval was, this is a true Ace pitcher on a great contract. An elite strikeout pitcher that should play well in the hitter friendly parks of Fenway and Yankee Stadium. As much as I hate staying under luxury tax, I can understand it. New CBA will take away your ability to add young talent if your a luxury tax team. Losing 20-25% of your international budget could mean not getting the next Bogaerts, Devers or Espinoza. Losing draft picks and draft pool money could cost you the next Groome type player. In the new CBA going over luxury tax to sign players has much stiffer penalties than under the old CBA. You can't just lose a 1st round pick and go out and sign a Moncada anymore. For these reason risking what 212 million on Miggy to preform through his age 40 season makes no sense. You are much better off extending our young players. If your going to spend 200 million, give it to Betts. You also are overlooking that we would have had to send a bunch of prospects to Detroit to get Miggy. There is collusion amoung owners to drive down salaries and keep the big market teams from spending. It's the so called small and mid market teams, that have no clue how to run a team. They just want to make more money and it makes me sick, but there is nothing we can do about it. Good points. I used the example of Bogaerts and Betts in 2013, because that's about where Yoan and Kopech are now. Bogaerts like Yoan always rated high (Yoan even higher). Betts like Kopech racing up the ratings so fast evaluators say they don't know what to do with such rapid improvement, but expecting he'll be ready if not this year then next. I'm only saying that IF ownership is desperate to boost revenue with the loss of Papi, then they should do so by spending money, not by trading away the future of the team, for what might be 3 WAR upgrade for only three years. But even there, Wright was on track to be a 4-5 WAR pitcher before the injury, and E-Rod with a breakout year he is due for has a range of 3-5 WAR. And even the re-emergence of stellar Buchholz (after he raised his arm slot) has a range of 3-5 WAR. And then there's Pomeranz, and then there's Kopech himself. So the confidence level of that supposed 3 WAR upgrade is low. But the other question is, what are you and me and phil going to do for a new avatar, to replace our Kopech?
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Post by Coreno on Dec 8, 2016 2:46:19 GMT -5
I like the comparisons to Hanley-Beckett, because it means we will win a championship in the next couple years, and we will sign Moncada in like 2025.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 8, 2016 4:27:40 GMT -5
The thing your missing is that Moncada and Kopech aren't immediate high ceiling prospects. Moncada clearly isn't ready and neither is Kopech. How did Moncada do in majors last year? Your comparing Moncada and Kopech to two guys that did well in there first call ups at age 20 and 21. Not saying Moncada and Kopech won't develop into good players, but they have things they need to work on. Moncada needs to work on his strikeouts and his D and Kopech needs to improve his control and off field behavior. An immediate high ceiling prospect is Benintendi, a guy that is clearly ready to mash major league pitching. I wouldn't have made this deal, but I can understand it. The age old saying that pitching and D wins Championships. This isn't just adding a name to bost revenue like Sandoval was, this is a true Ace pitcher on a great contract. An elite strikeout pitcher that should play well in the hitter friendly parks of Fenway and Yankee Stadium. As much as I hate staying under luxury tax, I can understand it. New CBA will take away your ability to add young talent if your a luxury tax team. Losing 20-25% of your international budget could mean not getting the next Bogaerts, Devers or Espinoza. Losing draft picks and draft pool money could cost you the next Groome type player. In the new CBA going over luxury tax to sign players has much stiffer penalties than under the old CBA. You can't just lose a 1st round pick and go out and sign a Moncada anymore. For these reason risking what 212 million on Miggy to preform through his age 40 season makes no sense. You are much better off extending our young players. If your going to spend 200 million, give it to Betts. You also are overlooking that we would have had to send a bunch of prospects to Detroit to get Miggy. There is collusion amoung owners to drive down salaries and keep the big market teams from spending. It's the so called small and mid market teams, that have no clue how to run a team. They just want to make more money and it makes me sick, but there is nothing we can do about it. Good points. I used the example of Bogaerts and Betts in 2013, because that's about where Yoan and Kopech are now. Bogaerts like Yoan always rated high (Yoan even higher). Betts like Kopech racing up the ratings so fast evaluators say they don't know what to do with such rapid improvement, but expecting he'll be ready if not this year then next. I'm only saying that IF ownership is desperate to boost revenue with the loss of Papi, then they should do so by spending money, not by trading away the future of the team, for what might be 3 WAR upgrade for only three years. But even there, Wright was on track to be a 4-5 WAR pitcher before the injury, and E-Rod with a breakout year he is due for has a range of 3-5 WAR. And even the re-emergence of stellar Buchholz (after he raised his arm slot) has a range of 3-5 WAR. And then there's Pomeranz, and then there's Kopech himself. So the confidence level of that supposed 3 WAR upgrade is low. But the other question is, what are you and me and phil going to do for a new avatar, to replace our Kopech? I really like Moncada and Kopech, will be interesting to see how they turn out. I think your very high on your projections. You really think Clays a 3-5 war pitcher next year? You really think Wright's a 4-5 war player next year? You really think ERod is a 3-5 war player next year? I love ERod, but if projecting wars for next year it's got to be like 2.5 to 3.5 wars. Thinking he needs a year to build up innings before he jumps up to being a 5 war player. Clays only had 2 seasons in 10 years when he's even been a 3 war player and only 1 year at 5 or more WARs. You can't look at players and just expect the best they can do when projecting wars. Sure if everything went right those 3 could give you 10-15 wars next year, it's just very unlikely. That group is very hard to peg though. Got the young guy that played through injury, the older guy that has thrown very few major league innings that just had by far his Best season ever, but is coming off injury and throws a knuckle ball and then Clay who can't stay healthy when pitching well and seems to be bad when he's healthy. I really don't think Sale is a PR move to make money. It sure looks like a move to increase our chances to win a Championship. I know you don't believe the 3 war thing or think it's to low to make the trade. I think the chances of Sale being a 5 war upgrade is more likely than Clay being worth 5 wars next year. Sale has been that pitcher within the last 3 years, Clay has not even been close. As to my avatar, I have no clue! Have to wait to find a new low level guy to love. In the meantime might throw some support to Owens.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 8, 2016 4:40:47 GMT -5
In their discussions that led to the Chris Sale trade, the White Sox pressed the Red Sox to include top third base prospect Rafael Devers in a potential package, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Unwilling to move Devers, Boston compromised by including both right-hander Victor Diaz and outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe. The 20-year-old Devers is MLB.com’s 20th-ranked prospect, while Baseball America placed him 41st on its midseason list. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/al-notes-holliday-chapman-royals-sox.html
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 8, 2016 4:47:17 GMT -5
This trade confirms one thing that I have been thinking this entire time. The Sox are higher on Devers than they are on Moncada. Now that we know Devers was wanted but the Sox refused to part with him, this comfirms it even more that the Sox like Devers more than Moncada.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 8, 2016 5:34:54 GMT -5
This trade confirms one thing that I have been thinking this entire time. The Sox are higher on Devers than they are on Moncada. Now that we know Devers was wanted but the Sox refused to part with him, this comfirms it even more that the Sox like Devers more than Moncada. How do you get that they liked Devers more than Moncada from that? They refused to make Devers the 3rd piece, so they gave them 2 others guys. That article didn't say Red Sox refused to give up Devers and instead offered Moncada.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 8, 2016 5:45:15 GMT -5
Now that we know Devers was wanted but the Sox refused to part with him, this comfirms it even more that the Sox like Devers more than Moncada. How do you get that they liked Devers more than Moncada from that? They refused to make Devers the 3rd piece, so they gave them 2 others guys. That article didn't say Red Sox refused to give up Devers and instead offered Moncada. If they liked Moncada more, they could of offered Devers, Kopech, and Swihart package or something. The entire fact that Moncada was the main piece to the deal was really telling imo. The article said that the Sox refused to give up Devers entirely, in fact. They didn't want to give him up.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,138
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Post by jimoh on Dec 8, 2016 5:59:50 GMT -5
I saw Moncada in A ball in NC and will miss being able to follow his progress. I saw big strong hard-throwing Carl Pavano in AA in New Haven and felt a pang when we traded him for that skinny guy.
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Post by burythehammer on Dec 8, 2016 7:08:25 GMT -5
This trade confirms one thing that I have been thinking this entire time. The Sox are higher on Devers than they are on Moncada. Now that we know Devers was wanted but the Sox refused to part with him, this comfirms it even more that the Sox like Devers more than Moncada. How do we "know" this, exactly? If the White Sox said, "We'll take Devers instead of Moncada", Devers would be a White Sock right now.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 8, 2016 7:32:53 GMT -5
It doesn't necessarily follow that the Sox liked Devers more than Moncada but it doesn't mean they did not feel that way as well. I think like they were very comparable prospects in terms of value and maybe the power potential of Devers and his projection at 3rd might have made him a better fit to keep. Who knows, but I'm real glad they kept him.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 8, 2016 7:42:03 GMT -5
This trade confirms one thing that I have been thinking this entire time. The Sox are higher on Devers than they are on Moncada. Now that we know Devers was wanted but the Sox refused to part with him, this comfirms it even more that the Sox like Devers more than Moncada. To clarify Pedro's point in simple math: A+B+C > A+B+D+E Therefore C > A
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 8, 2016 7:49:23 GMT -5
So by your criteria, is Lackey a better pitcher than Sale and Price? Be reasonable. Lackey is in his late 30s. He was also never considered a top end guy. To be clear I'm not saying Sale can't be a #1 starter but he's clearly behind Kershaw MadBum Max Lester Arrietta and Kluber. Those are the real aces in baseball. Big difference between an ACE and a #1. An ace is what I would give up something like Kopech Swihart and filler for. Maybe Basabe. But you do not under any circumstance trade a future MVP like a Moncada who could easily be the next Trout/ARod and six freaking years of control. Funny that you're telling me to be reasonable and then go on to say we gave up Trout/ARod for a pitcher who isn't an ace.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 8, 2016 8:06:20 GMT -5
Now that we know Devers was wanted but the Sox refused to part with him, this comfirms it even more that the Sox like Devers more than Moncada. How do we "know" this, exactly? If the White Sox said, "We'll take Devers instead of Moncada", Devers would be a White Sock right now. Well Sale was the guy they truly coveted. So yes if that was the package, Devers would be gone. All I'm just saying is that if the choice was between Devers and Moncada in a package, this organization just gave you the answer because Devers was never at any point agreed upon. I agree with the organization, for that matter. Moncada has the most tools I have seen in a Sox prospect since Hanley Ramirez, but Devers just plays baseball better imo especially at third base defensively. It's close but my bet is on Devers.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 8, 2016 8:10:10 GMT -5
Now that we know Devers was wanted but the Sox refused to part with him, this comfirms it even more that the Sox like Devers more than Moncada. To clarify Pedro's point in simple math: A+B+C > A+B+D+E Therefore C > A Hahaha this is not simple math.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 8, 2016 8:45:14 GMT -5
To clarify Pedro's point in simple math: A+B+C > A+B+D+E Therefore C > A Hahaha this is not simple math. This is simpler. His logic is: a horse plus a cow plus a pig is worth more than a horse plus a cow plus a goat plus a chicken, therefore, a pig is worth more than a horse.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 8, 2016 8:46:42 GMT -5
Hahaha this is not simple math. This is simpler. His logic is: a horse plus a cow plus a pig is worth more than a horse plus a cow plus a goat plus a chicken, therefore, a pig is worth more than a horse. Hahaha just because you turned it into farm animals, it doesn't make it simpler. Okay I'm done having fun on this one.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 8, 2016 9:09:15 GMT -5
So by your criteria, is Lackey a better pitcher than Sale and Price? Be reasonable. Lackey is in his late 30s. He was also never considered a top end guy. To be clear I'm not saying Sale can't be a #1 starter but he's clearly behind Kershaw MadBum Max Lester Arrietta and Kluber. Those are the real aces in baseball. Big difference between an ACE and a #1. An ace is what I would give up something like Kopech Swihart and filler for. Maybe Basabe. But you do not under any circumstance trade a future MVP like a Moncada who could easily be the next Trout/ARod and six freaking years of control. When Lackey was with the Angels he was considered a top end guy and he arguably was. Not Kershaw top end but he was Cy Young fringe.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 8, 2016 9:13:08 GMT -5
Hahaha this is not simple math. This is simpler. His logic is: a horse plus a cow plus a pig is worth more than a horse plus a cow plus a goat plus a chicken, therefore, a pig is worth more than a horse. Not to beat a dead horse (har har har), but that's not how that works... all this means is that C is greater than D + E or that a pig is worth more than a goat and a chicken... which is obvious because a pig provides bacon and bacon is the best.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 8, 2016 9:14:37 GMT -5
This is simpler. His logic is: a horse plus a cow plus a pig is worth more than a horse plus a cow plus a goat plus a chicken, therefore, a pig is worth more than a horse. Not to beat a dead horse (har har har), but that's not how that works... all this means is that C is greater than D + E or that a pig is worth more than a goat and a chicken... which is obvious because a pig provides bacon and bacon is the best. That's the joke. I bet goat bacon would be pretty yummy though.
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Post by 111soxfan111 on Dec 8, 2016 9:32:29 GMT -5
Now that we know Devers was wanted but the Sox refused to part with him, this comfirms it even more that the Sox like Devers more than Moncada. To clarify Pedro's point in simple math: A+B+C > A+B+D+E Therefore C > A Edit: missed the joke Been avidly reading the trade threads but haven't posted in a long time. I think this is a good trade in a vacuum but I agree those who hate the whole package of DD trades. We are now at a point where any additional trades of prospects or cost controlled talent will be a 'bridge too far'. That seriously limits flexibility both now and in the immediate future. For instance if we hadn't done the kimbrell trade I think we'd still be in the realm of reasonable use of under-25 talent/prospects.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 8, 2016 9:40:45 GMT -5
Also, to clarify: I'm aware of their third-order record. That's a big part of why I argued against this trade. They could easily have gotten by making no big trade, just say, the Thornburg acquisition. I said "marginal upgrade" because adding a few wins to a theoretical 100-win team is unlikely to have a major effect on the season's outcome. Comparing Sale to Wright/Pomeranz/ERod, there's about a 3-3.5 win difference. That's 3%. *Sale* may be significantly better than the pitcher he replaced, but the overall *team* performance isn't really likely to be *that* much better. Despite thursty 's typical mis-representation of my statement, the reality is that even if the Vegas odds are accurate, the Sox still have to pitch Price and Porcello and take down the Cubs. This isn't a "makes them a contender" move, it's a "makes them the favorite over being roughly even with Cleveland" move. In terms of the next decade, it heavily weights any chance of success all to the front, and overall probably (because of the financial flexibility afforded by prospects, even those who become "average") dramatically reduces their chances of winning multiple championships. It's Adrian Gonzalez, redux, right down to the depth problems in the infield. It's not a theoretical 100-win team, though. It's a theoretical 89/90-win team which became a theoretical 93-win team. That's that sweet spot in the win curve where a few additional ("marginal") wins mean a lot. Doubling their World Series odds is not really something you can hand-wave away as being meaningless. Before the trade, I can assume the RS expected to make the playoffs. It's in that 5-7 game series that by having THREE horses greatly improves your odds of winning said series. IMO it also takes pressure off (frees up?) the other starters.
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Post by ryan24 on Dec 8, 2016 10:12:13 GMT -5
It looks to me like we have two different camps on how to build an mlb team.
Theo/ ben all in on the farm system.
Dave trade for proven mlb players.
This site by name likes our prospects. We like metrics. The style Theo/ ben follow.
Dave likes the trade to get what we need and not so much into metrics. We really do not like this style.
Both, want the same thing. A winning mlb team with a chance every year to win the WS.
Theo makes splashy trades with prospects as well. He gave up ALOT for a couple of months of chapman. Include soler in the trade here as well because they needed to replace chapman.
Dave is not dumb and he has a 3 year window to make some moves to rebuild the farm.
The goal of the farm system is to feed to mlb club 1 to 3 players a year to fill holes and keep it strong. How you go about doing that is the difference between theo and dave. kopech could be smoltz or one of dozens of guys that come thru baseball and end up pumping gas. Time will tell. Dave will rebuild the farm, but probably not to the level. that theo would. Also Dave in Detroit had to rebuild the farm from the bottom. They had nothing. I am a big believer in the farm system approach and was not real happy with the sell off of the sox program. But as long as dave DOES NOT allow the club to get old like the Yankees did I will gulp, try and live with his decisions.
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Post by jbuttah on Dec 8, 2016 11:01:04 GMT -5
For me it's not an issue of trading prospects for mlb players. I think for alot of posters it's more an issue of which mlb players we're getting back and how much we're giving up to get them, especially in light of recent trends in mlb. When we did have proven mlb players to trade, prospects were hoarded like gold (Lester, frownie face), but then when we trade for mlb players, prospects value seems to be more like silver.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 8, 2016 11:02:11 GMT -5
The thing your missing is that Moncada and Kopech aren't immediate high ceiling prospects. Moncada clearly isn't ready and neither is Kopech. How did Moncada do in majors last year? Your comparing Moncada and Kopech to two guys that did well in there first call ups at age 20 and 21. Not saying Moncada and Kopech won't develop into good players, but they have things they need to work on. Moncada needs to work on his strikeouts and his D and Kopech needs to improve his control and off field behavior. An immediate high ceiling prospect is Benintendi, a guy that is clearly ready to mash major league pitching. I wouldn't have made this deal, but I can understand it. The age old saying that pitching and D wins Championships. This isn't just adding a name to bost revenue like Sandoval was, this is a true Ace pitcher on a great contract. An elite strikeout pitcher that should play well in the hitter friendly parks of Fenway and Yankee Stadium. As much as I hate staying under luxury tax, I can understand it. New CBA will take away your ability to add young talent if your a luxury tax team. Losing 20-25% of your international budget could mean not getting the next Bogaerts, Devers or Espinoza. Losing draft picks and draft pool money could cost you the next Groome type player. In the new CBA going over luxury tax to sign players has much stiffer penalties than under the old CBA. You can't just lose a 1st round pick and go out and sign a Moncada anymore. For these reason risking what 212 million on Miggy to preform through his age 40 season makes no sense. You are much better off extending our young players. If your going to spend 200 million, give it to Betts. You also are overlooking that we would have had to send a bunch of prospects to Detroit to get Miggy. There is collusion amoung owners to drive down salaries and keep the big market teams from spending. It's the so called small and mid market teams, that have no clue how to run a team. They just want to make more money and it makes me sick, but there is nothing we can do about it. Good points. I used the example of Bogaerts and Betts in 2013, because that's about where Yoan and Kopech are now. Bogaerts like Yoan always rated high (Yoan even higher). Betts like Kopech racing up the ratings so fast evaluators say they don't know what to do with such rapid improvement, but expecting he'll be ready if not this year then next. I'm only saying that IF ownership is desperate to boost revenue with the loss of Papi, then they should do so by spending money, not by trading away the future of the team, for what might be 3 WAR upgrade for only three years. But even there, Wright was on track to be a 4-5 WAR pitcher before the injury, and E-Rod with a breakout year he is due for has a range of 3-5 WAR. And even the re-emergence of stellar Buchholz (after he raised his arm slot) has a range of 3-5 WAR. And then there's Pomeranz, and then there's Kopech himself. So the confidence level of that supposed 3 WAR upgrade is low. But the other question is, what are you and me and phil going to do for a new avatar, to replace our Kopech? Some good stuff there, to add my $0.02, according to MLBtraderumors The WhiteSox wanted Kopech, Moncada and Devers. The Sox wouldn't agree to that so the White Sox came back with Basabe and Diaz who appears to be under-rated by many. He only recently began pitching (converted fielder) and his second half of the yr (in fact his emergence started sooner than that, June), he had a 1.42 ERA with 40 K, 13BB in only 31.2 IP. Once the White Sox backed off of Kopech, Moncada and Devers and the current deal was proposed within 24 hours the deal was done.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 8, 2016 11:03:05 GMT -5
Now that we know Devers was wanted but the Sox refused to part with him, this comfirms it even more that the Sox like Devers more than Moncada. To clarify Pedro's point in simple math: A+B+C > A+B+D+E Therefore C > A They wanted both Devers and Mocada (along with Kopech).
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