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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 8:20:25 GMT -5
I think people are letting their emotions get in the way of their thinking if they believe there is no chance Brady plays for another franchise. Even he knows that's a distinct possibility. If you look back at the history of the NFL two things are clear: 1. No NFL QB has had more than one great season 40 or older EVER. 2. A lot of great players even QBs who are the faces of their franchises play for another team at the end of their careers. See Manning, Farve and Montana. Great players usually take longer to accept their skills are declining and not coming back. It seems like everyone here has this confidence that Brady has 3-5 years left in him and he's going to be very good to great that entire time and then the moment things start to slip he's going to know and walk away before it gets too bad. I can't say what is going to happen with Brady, maybe that scenario plays out but the only reason to have confidence in such a scenario is heavily rooted in blind optimism. You've already been saying this for a few years now, haven't you? Are you going to keep saying it for another 6-7 years? Brady is just turning 40 so I think that answer is no. And what exactly did I say? I just stated facts as to what has happened over the history of the NFL. Don't look for something that's not there. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 29, 2017 8:29:12 GMT -5
I wanted to add that I don't expect Brady to play like he did last year for the next 3-5 years, if he plays that long. Most likely he does start to decline at some point. That's why you trade Jimmy. That way you can build a power house team to help Brady for the next 5 years. I still take Brady at 75% over Jimmy. Look at Manning in his last year. He was like 40% of his normal self, but still good enough and smart enough to help a team win a title.
We have no clue if Jimmy will be durable, was that a fluke injury or a sign of things to come? We also don't know how clutch he will be. Look at Romo and Eli, I see them as similar players based on arm talent, heck I think Romo was slightly better. Eli though was durable and clutch when it mattered. That's why he has the Rings. Romo was the exact opposite.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 8:33:00 GMT -5
My feelings on Jimmy have nothing to do with the outlook on Brady. In fact, I have no idea what to expect with Brady. I've stated this a multitude of times. The difference is a lot of you have this complete optimism that he's not only going to defy everything else that's happened in NFL history he's going to do so by an incredible margin. Could it happen? Sure anything can happen but having such confidence in something like that is led by personal wants and desires as much as anything.
And yes, other players got hurt but that's what happens to old players then get hurt and it's harder to recover from those injuries. Even smaller ones. Not to mention the amount of effort it takes an older player to prepare and keep himself in top condition is enormous and even if you are up for that mentally at some point you won't be physically. The logic that he's gotten better the last 3 years is dangerous because everyone knows that peak is coming and everyone knows the decline is typically not slow so you're either rejecting the fact that his decline once it happens could be quick and/or putting some artificially end date on things. So right now it's 3-5 years because he just had 3 great seasons in a row; then what happens? If he has another great year next year, do we add 3-5 more years or does it drop to 2-4? Where's your logic? Does 45 just sound like a number that is comfortable to you to accept?
Jimmy has zero to do with the outlook on what will happen to Brady. The two aren't related. The relation is on what you do with Jimmy. There's a massive difference. And again that's not my choice but I understand why Bill would refuse to trade Jimmy, if he does, given Brady's age.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 29, 2017 8:33:27 GMT -5
You've already been saying this for a few years now, haven't you? Are you going to keep saying it for another 6-7 years? Brady is just turning 40 so I think that answer is no. And what exactly did I say? I just stated facts as to what has happened over the history of the NFL. Don't look for something that's not there. This isn't the first time you've talked about Patriots trading Brady. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 8:36:23 GMT -5
Brady is just turning 40 so I think that answer is no. And what exactly did I say? I just stated facts as to what has happened over the history of the NFL. Don't look for something that's not there. This isn't the first time you've talked about Patriots trading Brady. Well my post he quoted never talked about trading Brady but yes I've stated that wouldn't shock me if that happened at some point and I still feel that way. And you know who agrees with me? Tom Brady so to act like that's some outlandish thing is odd to me. I'm not sitting here saying Brady should get traded or even saying he will. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 8:37:16 GMT -5
I wanted to add that I don't expect Brady to play like he did last year for the next 3-5 years, if he plays that long. Most likely he does start to decline at some point. That's why you trade Jimmy. That way you can build a power house team to help Brady for the next 5 years. I still take Brady at 75% over Jimmy. Look at Manning in his last year. He was like 40% of his normal self, but still good enough and smart enough to help a team win a title. We have no clue if Jimmy will be durable, was that a fluke injury or a sign of things to come? We also don't know how clutch he will be. Look at Romo and Eli, I see them as similar players based on arm talent, heck I think Romo was slightly better. Eli though was durable and clutch when it mattered. That's why he has the Rings. Romo was the exact opposite. So you are banking on Brady having a slow decline. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 29, 2017 8:49:35 GMT -5
This isn't the first time you've talked about Patriots trading Brady. Well my post he quoted never talked about trading Brady but yes I've stated that wouldn't shock me if that happened at some point and I still feel that way. And you know who agrees with me? Tom Brady so to act like that's some outlandish thing is odd to me. I'm not sitting here saying Brady should get traded or even saying he will. When did he say that? Was it recently? I can see him saying that in general, a player never knows for sure. At his age now it's a totally different situation. Go ask the man that has the final say. I guarantee you Kraft would say we're not trading Brady. His opinion is the only one that matters. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 29, 2017 9:00:28 GMT -5
I wanted to add that I don't expect Brady to play like he did last year for the next 3-5 years, if he plays that long. Most likely he does start to decline at some point. That's why you trade Jimmy. That way you can build a power house team to help Brady for the next 5 years. I still take Brady at 75% over Jimmy. Look at Manning in his last year. He was like 40% of his normal self, but still good enough and smart enough to help a team win a title. We have no clue if Jimmy will be durable, was that a fluke injury or a sign of things to come? We also don't know how clutch he will be. Look at Romo and Eli, I see them as similar players based on arm talent, heck I think Romo was slightly better. Eli though was durable and clutch when it mattered. That's why he has the Rings. Romo was the exact opposite. So you are banking on Brady having a slow decline. To answer your other question first it's 3-5 years and after next year it's 2-4 years. I don't expect Brady to play past 45, heck I really don't think he makes it to 45. If I had to bet I would say 3 more years, but you never know. Maybe more if he's still playing at a high level. Yes it's a slow decline, we have no reason to think otherwise. For one very few QBs play till 40, so the data is very limited. Second has any QB done what Brady has from age 35 on? Nope. He's in perfect health. He's not Manning with a ticking time bomb neck. Third I truly believe he walks away when he does start to majorly decline. So you won't have years of major decline. |
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Post by digit on Mar 29, 2017 9:03:17 GMT -5
This isn't the first time you've talked about Patriots trading Brady. Well my post he quoted never talked about trading Brady but yes I've stated that wouldn't shock me if that happened at some point and I still feel that way. And you know who agrees with me? Tom Brady so to act like that's some outlandish thing is odd to me. I'm not sitting here saying Brady should get traded or even saying he will. From what I recall, Brady said it could happen to anyone ( ftw.usatoday.com/2016/11/nfl-new-england-patriots-tom-brady-bill-belichick-trade-jamie-collins ), and I recall his dad saying he wouldn't be surprised if Belichick traded Brady. It doesn't feel impossible. Kraft loved Bledsoe, and yet Bledsoe never got the chance to get his job back. Belichick traded him and that was that. That said, I'm fairly sure Belichick isn't even going to trade Garoppolo without being comfortable with his backup plans. He's been on record as saying he doesn't want to have a team built like the Manning Colts, where they were absolutely sunk without him as a QB. Yes, I know, conventional wisdom thinks you should max out and benefit from your franchise QB when you can, but c'mon, since when has Belichick followed convention? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 9:05:36 GMT -5
Well my post he quoted never talked about trading Brady but yes I've stated that wouldn't shock me if that happened at some point and I still feel that way. And you know who agrees with me? Tom Brady so to act like that's some outlandish thing is odd to me. I'm not sitting here saying Brady should get traded or even saying he will. When did he say that? Was it recently? I can see him saying that in general, a player never knows for sure. At his age now it's a totally different situation. Go ask the man that has the final say. I guarantee you Kraft would say we're not trading Brady. His opinion is the only one that matters. He explicitly said in the Peter King pod cast interview that while he'd like to play his entire career in New England he knows it's out of his control and possible it won't happen. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 9:15:02 GMT -5
So you are banking on Brady having a slow decline. To answer your other question first it's 3-5 years and after next year it's 2-4 years. I don't expect Brady to play past 45, heck I really don't think he makes it to 45. If I had to bet I would say 3 more years, but you never know. Maybe more if he's still playing at a high level. Yes it's a slow decline, we have no reason to think otherwise. For one very few QBs play till 40, so the data is very limited. Second has any QB done what Brady has from age 35 on? Nope. He's in perfect health. He's not Manning with a ticking time bomb neck. Third I truly believe he walks away when he does start to majorly decline. So you won't have years of major decline. These rosey conclusions are derived from the love of the player. There is no basis in the assertion "I think he walks away when he does start to majorly decline". That's your hope and desire as a fan of his. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 29, 2017 9:17:01 GMT -5
When did he say that? Was it recently? I can see him saying that in general, a player never knows for sure. At his age now it's a totally different situation. Go ask the man that has the final say. I guarantee you Kraft would say we're not trading Brady. His opinion is the only one that matters. He explicitly said in the Peter King pod cast interview that while he'd like to play his entire career in New England he knows it's out of his control and possible it won't happen. He's just talking in general terms, just like the article Digit just posted. No athlete knows for sure, they can't control it. He certainly can't say I will never be traded. What has Kraft said? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 9:23:02 GMT -5
He explicitly said in the Peter King pod cast interview that while he'd like to play his entire career in New England he knows it's out of his control and possible it won't happen. He's just talking in general terms, just like the article Digit just posted. No athlete knows for sure, they can't control it. He certainly can't say I will never be traded. What has Kraft said? I don't understand your point. So he can't know for sure but we can? That doesn't make sense to me... Kraft says things that he wants to happen all the time and usually follows it up with "I leave the football to Bill". Find me a Kraft quote that says Brady most certainly will be a Patriot for life and it's my decision for that to happen. This notion that Kraft would step in and stop Belichick from moving on from Brady no matter when that is and the Brady can decide to play here as long as he wants because "we know he won't stay too long" is such crap. Don't act like I'm saying that Brady won't finish his career here that's not even close to what I'm saying. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 29, 2017 9:24:15 GMT -5
To answer your other question first it's 3-5 years and after next year it's 2-4 years. I don't expect Brady to play past 45, heck I really don't think he makes it to 45. If I had to bet I would say 3 more years, but you never know. Maybe more if he's still playing at a high level. Yes it's a slow decline, we have no reason to think otherwise. For one very few QBs play till 40, so the data is very limited. Second has any QB done what Brady has from age 35 on? Nope. He's in perfect health. He's not Manning with a ticking time bomb neck. Third I truly believe he walks away when he does start to majorly decline. So you won't have years of major decline. These rosey conclusions are derived from the love of the player. There is no basis in the assertion "I think he walks away when he does start to majorly decline". That's your hope and desire as a fan of his. No it's based off the fact that's he's old. He's not 34-35 like Montana and Manning when they changed teams. He has the record Superbowls already and a wife that already wants him to retire. He's already greatest QB ever. It's also the exact same thing Manning just did. Farve did the same thing. Where do you get that he'll continue to play for years if he's a fraction of the great QB he was? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 9:26:49 GMT -5
We can sit here and say there are reasons to be optimistic that Brady can do the things you're proclaiming will happen and there are. But the term should be cautiously optimistic. And failure to see the other possible realistic outcomes is driven by fanboyism and Belichick doesn't fall prey to such things.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 9:28:41 GMT -5
These rosey conclusions are derived from the love of the player. There is no basis in the assertion "I think he walks away when he does start to majorly decline". That's your hope and desire as a fan of his. No it's based off the fact that's he's old. He's not 34-35 like Montana and Manning when they changed teams. He has the record Superbowls already and a wife that already wants him to retire. He's already greatest QB ever. It's also the exact same thing Manning just did. Farve did the same thing. Where do you get that he'll continue to play for years if he's a fraction of the great QB he was? I've never made any proclamation such as that or anything with regards to what will happen with his career going forward. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 9:31:00 GMT -5
By the way all those reasons you gave are your reasons not his. They are just things you think should or could happen. You don't know Brady or what makes him tick.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 9:32:31 GMT -5
Also all that is fine but I just find it interesting that people can't even see a scenario where it doesn't all end rosey for Tom and the Patriots.
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Post by digit on Mar 29, 2017 9:33:37 GMT -5
If he can't know or control it, then why is it an outlandish idea that Belichick is the type to err on the side of 'go with the younger player'?
If Belichick's goal is to build a perpetual contender, then at some point he cannot leave that decision solely in the hand of Brady, because at some point he actually -needs- to have a succession plan for Brady. He's already stated he doesn't want to be like the Manning Colts, where they had no backup because they built that team entirely around Manning and were stunk without him.
If that succession plan is not Garopollo, then it needs to be -someone-. If Brady is playing one more year, Belichick absolutely has to keep Garoppolo. If Brady is playing two more years, Belichick -may- keep Garoppolo anyway.
If Brady is absolutely likely to play more than 2 more years, then trade Garoppolo -and- take Brady's heir this year with one of the picks.
But being 'certain' he can play 4-5 more years at the age of 40 is, to be frank, gambling on high odds. Belichick has been the GM who would prefer to let a player go one year too early than one year too late, so from that viewpoint, it seems like you'd have to be weighing -all- the odds on Brady, on Garoppolo, and on whether you can find a heir in this year's draft (or next year's) or whether you have already picked up an alternate heir in Brissett.
It's pretty damned difficult to weigh all those from an outside perspective, but I think Belichick has a lot of probability calculations to sort out with all those scenarios, and I don't think he's going to weigh 'Brady will play four or five more years' terribly high with all the other options available.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 29, 2017 9:36:12 GMT -5
He's just talking in general terms, just like the article Digit just posted. No athlete knows for sure, they can't control it. He certainly can't say I will never be traded. What has Kraft said? I don't understand your point. So he can't know for sure but we can? That doesn't make sense to me... Kraft says things that he wants to happen all the time and usually follows it up with "I leave the football to Bill". Find me a Kraft quote that says Brady most certainly will be a Patriot for life and it's my decision for that to happen. This notion that Kraft would step in and stop Belichick from moving on from Brady no matter when that is and the Brady can decide to play here as long as he wants because "we know he won't stay too long" is such crap. Don't act like I'm saying that Brady won't finish his career here that's not even close to what I'm saying. You ask Tom do you think you get traded. He thinks, well Bill trades everybody, so maybe. Thing is Kraft has to sign off on it. Do you think Kraft would trade Brady while he's playing well? Not a chance, it won't happen. Brady like all great QBs will retire when he majorly starts to decline. It's just what great QBs do. |
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Post by digit on Mar 29, 2017 9:36:57 GMT -5
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 29, 2017 9:40:06 GMT -5
By the way all those reasons you gave are your reasons not his. They are just things you think should or could happen. You don't know Brady or what makes him tick. You're kidding right? Yes we do. Winning games and Superbowls, while being the greatest QB every. That's what drives Brady. We know this because he has said just that. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 9:57:18 GMT -5
By the way all those reasons you gave are your reasons not his. They are just things you think should or could happen. You don't know Brady or what makes him tick. You're kidding right? Yes we do. Winning games and Superbowls, while being the greatest QB every. That's what drives Brady. We know this because he has said just that. I have never seen a quote from Brady that resembles anything you just wrote. What I have seen in paraphrase is "football is fun - i love everything about it - the preparation - practice - working out - hanging with the guys - competing" Find me a quote that resembles anything close to what you just wrote. I'm not saying it doesn't exist I've just never seen it. You usually don't just make stuff like this up so you have me curious now. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 29, 2017 10:01:31 GMT -5
I don't understand your point. So he can't know for sure but we can? That doesn't make sense to me... Kraft says things that he wants to happen all the time and usually follows it up with "I leave the football to Bill". Find me a Kraft quote that says Brady most certainly will be a Patriot for life and it's my decision for that to happen. This notion that Kraft would step in and stop Belichick from moving on from Brady no matter when that is and the Brady can decide to play here as long as he wants because "we know he won't stay too long" is such crap. Don't act like I'm saying that Brady won't finish his career here that's not even close to what I'm saying. You ask Tom do you think you get traded. He thinks, well Bill trades everybody, so maybe. Thing is Kraft has to sign off on it. Do you think Kraft would trade Brady while he's playing well? Not a chance, it won't happen. Brady like all great QBs will retire when he majorly starts to decline. It's just what great QBs do. Now your just coming at me with irrelevant things. Even if I agree with your specific scenario of "trading Brady while he's still playing well" that scenario is irrelevant in what I'm saying. This isn't specific scenario based. Not to mention playing well is subjective. Please stop acting like I'm saying Brady won't end his career here. |
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 29, 2017 10:01:52 GMT -5
Why bother trying to read minds? That's where we're at now.
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