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Post by texs31 on Jun 30, 2017 7:06:04 GMT -5
I wonder, at that point, if they'd renegotiate and extend AB.
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Post by ryan24 on Jun 30, 2017 7:11:39 GMT -5
With his injury history how hard do you think danny goes after griffin? What is fair deal for George? crowder and the pick they picked up to move down last week?
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Post by texs31 on Jun 30, 2017 7:18:34 GMT -5
Most of the top guys are likely to want shorter deals so they can opt out and try for the 9yr max. Given Blake's service time, I believe that means a likely 2+1, at the max.
I would imagine you have to go there if you want him. MAYBE, you can get the slightest of discounts (less than a mil or 2) if the ideas is that PG isn't coming to play with you and we need to keep everyone else while still making max space??? (totally a guess on my part).
Reports are that Boston's offer is Crowder + 2 picks (LAL/SAC/PHI and pick in 19, whether it be MEM, LAC or BOS) along with a salary (whether it's Bradley or Zeller depends on what you are doing to get below the cap for max space).
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2017 7:26:19 GMT -5
3+1 deals make most sense if the player wants to maximize money from next contract, if a player is signing with a new team via free agency so the new team can have full bird rights and the player 10 Years of service (assuming they are close to 10 year service time)... going with a 2+1 leaves then short of full bird rights which limits the max contract.... I believe that is right monetarily...
Now we saw Durant and LeBron sign shorter deals but Durant wasn't trying to maximize earnings and LeBron was trying to maintain flexibility more than anything else.... Basketball salary really isn't the bulk of LeBrons money.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2017 7:38:07 GMT -5
If I'm Danny and I can get PG13, after getting Hayward the most I would be willing to give up is the following:
Crowder - Bradley - Zeller and 2 of any non Brooklyn and Lakers pick.
My ideal move would be to trade Bradley to a third teams cap space before signing Hayward and get back more draft capital and no real salary.
Then trade Zeller (expiring deal), Crowder (Rozier can go too as a sweetener) and those two picks LAC and Boston 2018. I might be able to be talked into keeping Rozier here and including Smart in the deal if it means we keep that Lakers pick. Include a second rd pick or two that you've acquired perhaps as well..
I'm sorry but it doesn't matter how much George is worth as much as it matters who can give the best offer and the offers above are better than anything I can see coming from the Lakers or Rockets. The Rockets have very little left that I can see being attractive to Indy. The Lakers have no picks and only high end talent is Ingram and Ball who they aren't dealing. Randle isn't high end and is about to get expensive - I don't see why Indy would want him. On top of it all, they need to take on 3 years of Deng. Makes no sense. At least with the Celtics you get Crowder on a great contract that has future trade value for sure and cap flexibility plus a couple first round picks.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2017 7:42:32 GMT -5
By the way there seems to be some confusion on that Clippers pick. We can either get that pick in 2019 or 2020. Both are lottery protected and if not then it's 2022 second round pick.
I'm not too worried about it not being a first rd pick as if Blake leaves they are going to have about 60m in cap space for summer 2018.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 30, 2017 7:55:30 GMT -5
In most scenarios, a GH/PG combo would take the following off your team:
1. All UFA and RFA from last year's squad
2. Both fully non-guaranteed contracts (Mickey and Zeller)
3. Bradley and Crowder
Then it would seem to be a choice of keeping Marcus Smart (and stashing Yabusele) or keeping/signing Rozier, Jackson and Yabusele.
There very well may be other ways but in the most likely, if you want to keep Smart, you've already traded Rozier and wouldn't be able to use him as a sweetner.
PS I'm using Ryan Bernardoni as a source on that one.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2017 7:59:50 GMT -5
In most scenarios, a GH/PG combo would take the following off your team: 1. All UFA and RFA from last year's squad 2. Both fully non-guaranteed contracts (Mickey and Zeller) 3. Bradley and Crowder Then it would seem to be a choice of keeping Marcus Smart (and stashing Yabusele) or keeping/signing Rozier, Jackson and Yabusele. There very well may be other ways but in the most likely, if you want to keep Smart, you've already traded Rozier and wouldn't be able to use him as a sweetner. PS I'm using Ryan Bernardoni as a source on that one. If you trade Bradley first and take back no salary there should be enough room to deal Zeller and Crowder for George and keep The rest (smart - Rozier - brown - Tatum - Yabu and Zizic)... My guess anyways is if Hayward signs here he takes a little less per year because he wants the strongest team. That's what these guys generally do and it really doesn't cost them much money. Not to mention compared to Utah he can make that up off the court here easily. If it's all about the last dollar than we can't compete with Miami anyways, |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 30, 2017 8:20:24 GMT -5
Technically, you'd be about 800K shy without trading Rozier (stupid incomplete roster charges).
That being said, I think you're second point is 100% accurate.
Who goes in a trade for space vs who goes in a trade for PG would likely come down to the overall net exchange of pick value and/or sweetener's (Rozier). If you can get more in a separate trade for Bradley then you can get as a "discount" from Indy (in what you'd owe in draft picks) by including him, you go that route. Otherwise, Crowder+Bradley+Picks.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2017 8:35:32 GMT -5
If they do get PG13, I think the most unfortunate side affect (not counting what picks they trade since we don't know that) is Avery Bradley not being around for Brown and Tatum to learn from. The way he adds to his game each and every year is impressive. This year he's supposedly working on taking the ball to the basket and finishing with an emphasis on floaters. If his previous successes are any indication that will be a weapon for him this year.. good timing right before free agency too
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Post by texs31 on Jun 30, 2017 8:47:43 GMT -5
I agree. I love AB. How he's improved each year has been fun to watch. I'm a little concerned in how much he'll get paid in free agency but, since it's unlikely it's the difference between cap space and no cap space (and the FO seems okay with paying taxes), that concern is minimized.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 30, 2017 8:52:58 GMT -5
Prediction time. We will hear a transaction, of sorts, this weekend. That will be that Boston and Tyler Zeller have agreed to push back the guarantee date on his deal.
Currently, the reports are that 7/2 is his deadline. Hayward won't likely make his decision until after that (meeting with Utah is 7/3).
Unless, of course, Marks and the Vert have that date wrong.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2017 9:05:00 GMT -5
Question... if the Celtics don't add any money this year that runs past this coming season... what kind of cap space would they theoretically be able to manufacture? Basically, Smart Bradley and Thomas will be free agents and have cap holds but the Celtics can renounce those if they come to terms with other guys and they could wait to sign deals over their caps holds until Boston comes to terms with a free agent. They can't keep all their cap holds and sign a max guy but they could keep one or two right?
Just thinking about this because if they strike out on Hayward or Griffin they may want to keep flexibility for next year to try and make a run at a guy like Westbrook maybe...
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Post by texs31 on Jun 30, 2017 9:14:20 GMT -5
You'd have max if you're walking away from those guys (maybe closer to 40. Even an estimate would have so many variables (where the cap lands, how many picks would we have and where would they fall, etc.)
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Post by texs31 on Jun 30, 2017 10:21:20 GMT -5
Zach Lowe (ESPN) is reporting that Boston has NOT offered that LAL/SAC/PHI pick (or Brown, Tatum or 18BRK but we were expecting that). Some reports suggested otherwise.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2017 10:30:13 GMT -5
Zach Lowe (ESPN) is reporting that Boston has NOT offered that LAL/SAC/PHI pick (or Brown, Tatum or 18BRK but we were expecting that). Some reports suggested otherwise. It would honestly shock me if Danny offered any of those assets even if he had a promise George would sign - it just goes against his very methodical and patient approach this entire time... the best teams that last usually build thru the draft |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2017 10:32:39 GMT -5
By the way... the Philly Embiid situation is going to be interesting... he's eligible for a max extension this offseason... he's played 31 games in 3 years tho... I mean he was a 2014 draft pick and has played 31 games..
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 30, 2017 10:36:40 GMT -5
You'd have max if you're walking away from those guys (maybe closer to 40. Even an estimate would have so many variables (where the cap lands, how many picks would we have and where would they fall, etc.) 40 million with the cap holds of our first round picks? |
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Post by texs31 on Jun 30, 2017 11:04:48 GMT -5
I think I have a rather high estimate for next year's cap (probably an estimate based on the $102 folks thought THIS year would be). So I think it was $48 without the holds.
Hard to tell what the cap would be next year but Lowe suggests another uptick. So let's say it's similar to he 5% increase from last year to this year. That's $104Mn.
AH, JC, JB, TR, GY, AZ and JT would leave about $44 in Cap Room without holds for the 2-3 picks.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 30, 2017 11:45:12 GMT -5
So when you add Ojeleye and most likely at minimum like 7 million in cap holds. You can't easily sign a max guy next year and keep Thomas's rights.
If I remember right the salary of draft picks goes up again next year. So that Nets pick alone will have a cap hold of around 5 million or more. If you assume it's going to be top 5.
So we better make our move this year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 30, 2017 12:15:57 GMT -5
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Post by Canseco on Jun 30, 2017 12:34:05 GMT -5
Sorry, but I'm just not down with trading most of the tough, team-friendly guys we've accumulated under Ainge and Stevens. You can keep Paul George (given his impending free agent status and open desire to play for the Lakers) and especially Blake Griffin--the latter of whom I consider to be a soft ass Nerf ball LOSER. If we can get Hayward, then beautiful.
I'd love the versatility on the wings with him, Brown, Tatum, and Crowder. Multiple match-ups would be possible against a variety of good teams. Also, as I've said on here before, our younger guys allow for much more payroll flexibility long term, which happens to coincide with the likely decline of LeBron James as he moves into his mid-30s. We can lock up our young core as a power vacuum develops in the East.
It would be a dumb move to trade a guy like Bradley. The guy is a winning player who grinds every night, and it would be a glaring hole on the defensive end if he wasn't around. We just got the #1 seed and got to the ECF with a pretty young roster. Let's keep building this thing the old fashioned way. No super team bullshit.
Edit to add: Also, I have high hopes for solid rotational seasons from Zizic and Yabusele. This core is damn impressive.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jun 30, 2017 12:40:23 GMT -5
I don't understand the rule on why they can't extend him. If he's their player they have his bird rights then why can't they extend him? I'm sure there is some obscure rule about needing cap space... However, I see this as an advantage anyways. It keeps the cost down to that of a rental and I never expected George to sign an extension before next season was over anyways. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 30, 2017 12:40:34 GMT -5
The only thing is the team friendly deals of Bradley, Smart and Thomas run out after this season. I don't like the idea of paying Bradley 20 plus million a year. That's not a team friendly deal.
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Post by texs31 on Jun 30, 2017 12:40:56 GMT -5
Couple of interesting (even if far-fetched) thoughts in Lowe's article:
1. The idea of a sign-and-trade for Hayward. Many of us (including me) talk down the idea of S&T bc we just don't see them happening much anymore (and there isn't much benefit in doing them for, at least, 1 team or the other). I wonder in this case, though.
If Hayward choses Boston, the C's don't need Utah to help them but it might benefit them if it means keeping an asset you'd otherwise have to get rid of. From Utah's standpoint, he'd be leaving regardless (again, Boston doesn't need Utah to make it happen). Would it behoove them to get an asset?
A better contract wouldn't be the motivation (as was, traditionally, with these deals) but for Boston to be able to retain an asset they might otherwise lose AND Utah to get something in return for losing 1 of their stars, maybe . . .
That being said, I really don't want to think about what the asset would be.
2. A potentially squashed market for PGs (and, if teams spend money this year, a dearth of teams with money to spend) leading to a less than max deal for IT.
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