2017 Trade Deadline Thread (Red Sox discussion)

I know you meant this to be tongue-in-cheek, but let's refrain from name-calling and such. Thanks. 

Have you looked at Kahnle prior season stats?  I would worry just as much that he can't maintain this as I did about Thornburg.  Heck more so, 30 innings is a half season work load for a reliever.

You seem to be hung up on the number of prospects and not the quality.  We didn't trade anything close to a top 30 prospect.  The whole package doesn't come close that elite prospect.  Unless you use hindsight on Shaw.  No one predicted this.  I wanted to keep him, but more for insurance.  Not because I thought he was going to get a lot better.

Yes, they got 3 players, but two had low value.  Most of the value was Kahnle and that's risky.  Reports said just that, Yanks had to pay up for Kahnle.  This whole trade is really Kahnle vs a top 30 guy.  They could have got Frazier and Robertson on the cheap.  That's why I wanted them.

If the White Sox thought it was a given Kahnle is going to be this good in the future they don't trade him.  They could have got a king ransom next year at this time.  Trading Frazier and Robertson made sense.  Trading Kahnle looks like a classic sell high move.  You never know in Baseball maybe he turned a corner, but that's a big if when trading an elite prospect.

The other head scratcher is getting Frazier to play 1B or 3B.  I don't see that as much if any of an upgrade over Headly.  Also they had Chris Carter who is just like Frazier, low average all power.  He had a bad first half, he could have easily been just as good as Frazier in the second half.

Overall the trade helps the Yankees, but it could look really bad in a few years.  I just don't get trading an elite prospect, for two bullpen arms when you already have two great relievers.  They needed an upgrade, but they didn't need to do this.  They should have used that elite guy to get a starter.  That's a bigger need now and in the future.

Overall it seems this board looks at trades differently when made by other teams because they aren't attached to those prospects.  If we traded a package like that people would be trying to run DD out of town.  The Yankees do it and everyone loves it.

The Yankees might have forced the Sox to bring up Devers.   At least I hope so. 

Dombrowski may not have let NYY drive up our price, but I don't think he gamed them at all here. He showed restraint, which a lot of people claim he has none of.

If you're looking purely at peripherals i think fWAR is a good estimator (FIP + infield flies + League/park adjustment). Red Sox pitchers currently rank (minimum 20 innings):
Kimbrel (2, 2.2 war)
Barnes (41, 0.8 war)
Hembree (76, 0.5 war)
Kelly (79, 0.5 war)
Boyer (116, 0.2 war)
Abad (129, 0.2 war)
Scott (193, -0.3 war)

So they have had the second best closer in baseball but the rest appear to be fairly average for their roles. (Red Sox rank 5th in MLB at 4.2 war) Overall this doesn't seem to be an area of need (especially with Smith possibly coming back and the depth) but certainly isn't a huge strength either, so if the right pitcher comes at the right price they should go for it, but not feel they have to overpay.

As Abad and Ross have combined for 0.3 fWAR i believe they should only consider left-handed setup men and that leaves probably only Hand from the Padres as an option. But in the playoffs the Red Sox will likely have Pomeranz (or Rodriguez) in the bullpen, so that lessens the desire.

(Scary thing is the Yankees ranked 2nd in fWAR BEFORE the recent trade - they now have the best bullpen in baseball)

Not sure what he would cost but I have heard Justin Wilson from Detroit may be available, he is a very good lefty as well and could be an option. He is arbitration eligible this offseason so he would be more than a rental.

If you don't recall, Nunez was once identified as the future Derek Jeter and held out of a deal for Cliff Lee when he was at the top of his game, thus killing the deal. He's a gold-glove type 3rd baseman, in that you'd think his glove was made of solid gold the way balls bounce off it.

I'm guessing whichever 3b they acquire will be somebody who can handle SS if need be, given that Xander is dealing with injury issues, and they don't have anybody behind him that can be a viable week at a time fill-in.

I can't imagine the Sox plan to deal for whichever 3b and expect him to plug the 3b problem. I would think Devers will be up sooner than later.

Nunez might be the guy because he'd come cheaply, is a rental, and has experience playing 3b and SS.

With Cabrera, he has the most pop of the guys left, but he has very little 3b experience, which doesn't resolve the defensive 3b issue.

With Lowrie, he hasn't played 3b in awhile, but while he might be the best option left, he could be more expensive to obtain because he has another year left.

Solarte would be a nice option, but he'd be even more expensive to obtain and he's had some injury issues. Who trusts the SD GM at this point?

W. Flores is a possibility but I honestly wouldn't want him. His offense is pretty mediocre to be kind.

If I had to guess I think they'll get Nunez, who might be just as bad as Flores.

I guess the Sox will be going after Neshek or Reed or even Wilson for the bullpen. That's probably where they'll put whatever lesser chips they have to deal, although Wilson would probably cost more than they'd be willing to give up.

And how much of those figures are a result of their shocking start and the unexpected and unsustainable first-halves put up by a number of players on all sides of the ball. Just take a quick walk through NYY stats and pay attention to how many players put up career first-halves. Looking into numbers based on those hot starts and expecting them to indicate second half performance is painting an unlikely picture. As I said, Frazier will have to be consistently mash (which he hasn't done to date) for the NYY offense to come close to replicating what they did in the first half. Their starting pitching is dismal. They have been falling like a lead balloon since Jun 12 (They have the WORST record in the AL since that date, FYI). The Red Sox have gained EIGHT games in the standings in just the last month. 

The Red Sox enjoy a Pyth W-L% advantage of .619 to .450 since June 12. The Red Sox run-differential in that time span is +34 and the Yankees are -16. 

The Yankees dramatically out-performed the talent on their roster early in the season, while the Red Sox have underperformed and struggled to maintain consistent success. And still, Boston is four games ahead of New York and alone in first-place at this point in the season. As the figures round out over a larger sample size, they will likely indicate that Boston is the better team. Just as the standings do currently. It is very likely their fools-gold start, falsely convincing them they were ready to compete, cost them a very good prospect. They are not better than Boston OR Tampa... 

You want to argue they're young and getting better - on the road to being very good. Fine. Not yet... 

Given the way the Frazier-to-Boston rumors got super hot, then immediately died once there was real news, then it was reported afterwards that the Red Sox were never really that close on him, I actually do think there was some gamesmanship being played in the media. That said, at the very least, he did show restraint. The closest thing the Sox have to Rutherford is Groome. I'm very glad he was not moved for this package.

As always jmei, we'll see. A dominant offense, an outstanding bullpen and three prominent starters is a good formula for post season success and I don't think you would disagree.

Thru nearly 60% of the season, the Yankees are ranked the 3rd best offense. They just got Holliday and Castro back after considerable absence...in addition to Sanchez who missed a month. Despite those absences,they rank at the top in HRs and runs. Stats are used by some when they support the mindset but when they don't, those stats are discredited.

The Yankees just added two very strong bullpen arms and a powerful 1Bman. Their offense and pen is superior to the Sox.

Sale is great. Maybe Price is fully back. Who else for us is reliably dominant? Have you seen the hits/innings pitched for Porcello? Confident? Pomeranz? How vilified has he been? Confident in playoff dominance?

What about the future?

We are much more financially strapped than the Yankees to pursue free agents in 2018 and decisions on Betts/Bradly extensions loom.

Farm?

The Yankees have a very top farm system for mlb graduation or trades. Our system does not compare.

Management/trades

Look at what we paid for Sale, Kimbrel and Thornburg. Look what the Yankees got for Miller and Chapman. Look what they gave up for Frazier, Robertson and Kahnle.

I would reluctantly say the Yanks are in a better position going forward.

I hope that I am wrong.

You aren't considering that the Yankees offense isn't sustainable.  You aren't going to see Gardner end up with over 30 HR and Hicks isn't going to hit like Papi.  They had at least 6 guys playing way over their career best at one point.