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2017 Trade Deadline Thread (Red Sox discussion)
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Post by patford on Jul 19, 2017 18:43:07 GMT -5
The more time that passes the more I am thinking that Dombrowski is a shrewd judge of talent. Recently hearing that Devers and not Moncada was the untouchable in the Sale deal is an example. I've also heard that Dombrowski was really high on Mata before Mata was on most peoples radar. And there is growing evidence that he "sold high" on most of the prospects he traded away. Travis Shaw is an exception for sure but there is no telling what he would have done if he had remained in Boston.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 19, 2017 18:45:59 GMT -5
Seriously, the Yankee fear here is mind boggling sometimes. OMG, they're going to sign every FA out there - or at least all the ones they want. Including Moncada.
They have a good team. The Sox have a good team. It will interesting to see who ends up on top. Maybe the Raya?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 19, 2017 18:59:21 GMT -5
Most specifically "anyone capable of using a telephone could pull it off" you realize that the white Sox originally asked for Betts or AB in SALE talks last year right? And DD said no? Why are you trying to confuse him with facts?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 19, 2017 19:21:31 GMT -5
There's a big, big difference between "the Yankees are, on some level, a concern" (fair statement) and "the Yankees are better than the Red Sox" (disagree) or, god forbid, the Yankees are a starter away from being "a playoff juggernaut" (nope). As always jmei, we'll see. A dominant offense, an outstanding bullpen and three prominent starters is a good formula for post season success and I don't think you would disagree. Thru nearly 60% of the season, the Yankees are ranked the 3rd best offense. They just got Holliday and Castro back after considerable absence...in addition to Sanchez who missed a month. Despite those absences,they rank at the top in HRs and runs. Stats are used by some when they support the mindset but when they don't, those stats are discredited. The Yankees just added two very strong bullpen arms and a powerful 1Bman. Their offense and pen is superior to the Sox. Sale is great. Maybe Price is fully back. Who else for us is reliably dominant? Have you seen the hits/innings pitched for Porcello? Confident? Pomeranz? How vilified has he been? Confident in playoff dominance? What about the future? We are much more financially strapped than the Yankees to pursue free agents in 2018 and decisions on Betts/Bradly extensions loom. Farm? The Yankees have a very top farm system for mlb graduation or trades. Our system does not compare. Management/trades Look at what we paid for Sale, Kimbrel and Thornburg. Look what the Yankees got for Miller and Chapman. Look what they gave up for Frazier, Robertson and Kahnle. I would reluctantly say the Yanks are in a better position going forward. I hope that I am wrong. Do the Yankees have a single starter that is reliably dominate ? You can make a strong case our top 4 starters are all better than any Yamkee starter. Porcello is our #5 guy right now, enough said! DD will get us a guy to play 3B and another good reliever. At that point it's clear who the better team is.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 19, 2017 19:34:55 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 19, 2017 19:45:30 GMT -5
In my mind, Frazier was never a realistic option, and it's hard to see a 3B trade that would make sense.
The fact is that (per Davenport Translations) if Devers hits his Major League Equivalence in MLB, he's as good as Frazier and probably better than Lowrie (depending on how much Lowrie regresses to his Rest of Season projections). So waiting to see how Devers took to AAA was always your strategy.
Should Devers struggle at AAA over the next two weeks, you might consider a trade. And Holt as a platoon starter in the long term is iffy: he needs to both demonstrate that his small-sample bad defense at 3B has been a fluke, and he needs to be able to sustain offense while playing 5 times a week.
However, come September, you have Lin to replace him in the big half of the platoon. So far, Tzu-Ven Linrerro has been a 2.1 WAR / 150 G player, and even with regression, I'm not trading the farm to upgrade a 1.0 WAR player to a 2.5 WAR player for a third of a season.
I think a trade happens if Devers and Lin are both struggling at AAA and Holt is not impressing at 3B.
The way this team holds off the Yankees is by having the existing offense play up to expectations.
Hanley was .239 / .341 / .394 on June 21 and is .301 / .348 / .590 in 89 PA since. That's very clearly simply getting healthy. It should continue.
Get Xander healthy next ...
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 19, 2017 19:53:33 GMT -5
www.baseballamerica.com/majors/yankees-white-sox-pull-off-seven-player-swap/#d8vMl8Xjbu8u622f.97Baseball America rates him #36 overall in the most recent top 100. Let's not try and bash the guy to prove a point. He is having a good, not great year. Thing is he is young. Thinking he is a backend top 100 guy, is just you trying to prove a point. I haven't seen anyone say that. How am I trying to bash the guy? I gave two examples of midyear rankings that didn't include him in their top 50. Fine, rather than call him a backend top 100 guy (which I think he is), its certainly safe to say he's not a consensus top 50 guyYou thinking Clarkin is Trey Ball explains a lot. He is a lot better than Ball, just been injured a lot. His numbers are good when healthy, unlike Ball. So your package makes little sense. You also are the only person to think Robertson is on a great deal. I don't think it's terrible, but I also don't think it's a bargin. He will be one of the higgest paid relievers in game next year. He has to be great or its a horrible deal. Don't read too much into any quick comparison I throw up there. He may be better than Trey Ball, but the important point is this: Clarkin is pitching in High-A, the same level he was pitching in 2014. I get that injuries have something to do with that, but he also hasn't put up K-rates of 20% in his past two seasons there. His trade value should be pretty damn low. So because Kahnle greatly increased his numbers that means it's for real? That makes no sense. If that were true we would have the 2016 version of Porcello and we don't. To me it's a huge red flag. We have no clue if it's real, that's why it's a risky trade and not a slam dunk. I get that the prediction of his subsequent years is somewhat questionable, but when the most recent numbers are elite (and I mean elite), then thats a gamble worth taking. Look if Henry Owens all of a sudden pitched to a K-rate of 43% in his next 30 innings and a walk rate of 5%, you wouldn't surmise that the current version of Henry Owens simply ran into some good luck.When did I say they wouldn't help them? No fallacy at all because I never said that. I said they should have went after a starter. You need a lead or otherwise your great bullpen means nothing. They could have added some solid bullpen arms and got a starter. Ok, then I suppose the fallacy is you thinking these events are mutually exclusive. Why does obtaining 2 relievers and a 3B preclude them from trading for a SP? Did they blow their entire prospect load on this trade? Not even close....they lost 1 guy in their top 20 (top 30 according to some outlets).Trying to compare Kahnle to Chapman is kinda crazy, same thing with Robertson. Chapman was a top reliever for years without any up and down performances. That's why he and Miller cost so much. You knew exactly what you were getting. Last year no one wanted Robertson and Kahnle was just ok. Not even close, nevermind those were crazy stupid trades for Chapman and Miller. Fine, do you prefer the Ken Giles trade as a point of reference? You can call the trades 'crazy stupid' all you want, but these are the trades that define the market value and the Yanks seemingly found away around it. Calling him a back-end 100 guy is how. Saying his value is basically Shaw after last year, which it wasn't . Not even close. You may think he is, but that's just your opnnion. The fact is everyone had him as a top 35 prospect to start year. He certainly hasn't had a bad year. He has done everything but hit for power. All that upside didn't just disappear. Something to do about it? He has missed a massive amount of time. It's the exact reason, because the results have always been good when he's healthy. Which is why I don't worry about strikeouts. He has had limited innings to work on his stuff. A lefty that can reach 93 that doesn't allow a ton of hits and get results has decent value. Way more value than Ball, it's not even close. No way I would believe Owens had turned a corner after 30 innings, I would take it as just a hot stretch. I wouldn't believe it after one full year. Just look at Porcello. Guys have career years all the time. You really think Kahnle is a top 5 reliever going forward? You can think it's worth the gamble, but it is a gamble. What if Kahnle and Robertson pitch like 2016 and not 2017 next year? Is that still a great trade? What if Kahnle never comes close to being the next Chapman like you think? Knowing relievers it's more likely that he never becomes Chapman, than he does. I hope the Yankees add another starter. I really do, trade those prospects. My point is simple. If you were going to trade a top prospect, address your biggest need. If they get a good starter now, it could cost 2 more top prospects. That could be 3 guys on a team that just seems ready to disappoint. There 20-9 start was more luck than there true talent level. That's the Yankees problem. That offense is going to decline, it has already started to happen. The Yankees found a way around it because the guy only has 35 innings at that level. You need a comp based off 60% of a season. Like I said it's risky.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 19, 2017 20:00:34 GMT -5
BRING ME STRICKLAND!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2017 20:12:19 GMT -5
BRING ME STRICKLAND! I like Strickland but his walks concern me. It's up there this year. Normally he's nowhere near that high. He'd be a nice get but I'd be worried if that trend continued. He's got several years of control so he could be expensive to acquire and with his control questionable at the moment I'd be a little concerned. Nunez is a utility man at this point, insurance against Devers struggling or Xander needing more time to heal.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2017 20:12:25 GMT -5
I wouldn't mind seeing Jed Lowrie on the Sox again. My reasoning:
1. Obviously, he is an upgrade over whoever is at third now 2. He is a rental player and likely won't cost any high-end prospects 3. He is versatile enough to fill in at 3rd, 2nd, or even SS if need be (who knows how long Xander might sit out) 4. He does not block Devers in any way. If Devers continues to mash at AAA, call him up and Lowrie becomes maybe the best backup infielder in baseball 5. He has played in Boston before and even has a series-winning (2008 ALDS) hit, so he is unlikely to crumble under the pressure of playing in Boston in the middle of a pennant race
No he doesn't bring much in the power department, but what the Red Sox really need is someone in the bottom third of the lineup who is not an automatic out. I haven't heard much buzz regarding Lowrie, so I'm thinking this is probably just wishful thinking on my part.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 19, 2017 20:16:51 GMT -5
Isn't Strickland really homerun prone?
Or am I thinking that he was because Harper always takes him deep?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 19, 2017 20:55:36 GMT -5
Isn't Strickland really homerun prone? Or am I thinking that he was because Harper always takes him deep? One HR all year. .3 HR per 9 innings.
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Post by bnich on Jul 19, 2017 21:40:49 GMT -5
Seriously, the Yankee fear here is mind boggling sometimes. OMG, they're going to sign every FA out there - or at least all the ones they want. Including Moncada. They have a good team. The Sox have a good team. It will interesting to see who ends up on top. Maybe the Raya? I think a lot of people have forgotten the times when the Red Sox and Yankees were both Gladiators in the AL and not just the AL East. Each club had high profile line ups and starting rotations built for October baseball. Neither team feared the other, they just thought they were better. I want the years of Pedro, Varitek, Nixon (My favorite dirt dog of all time), DLowe, Schilling, Garciaparra, etc. I want those guys back. Never backing down, never giving in. I want those leave everything you have games and series out on the field again. Too many premadonnas in baseball today. Let's play some ball and see what happens.
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Post by Don Caballero on Jul 19, 2017 23:00:50 GMT -5
BRING ME STRICKLAND! The gif sadly cuts off right before Strickland punches him like a pro. It was an absolutely great punch. It's awesome he's had a good MLB career, I used to mix him up with Brock Huntzinger all the time. For 2 names that are nothing alike, they were weirdly interchangeable.
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Post by sparkygian on Jul 20, 2017 1:48:21 GMT -5
I personally feel that 'Dealin Dave' is up to something. He is, after all getting up in age, and I'm guessing, trying to cement his legacy with another championship. He knows damn well that his team is much, much, much more complete than the Yankees; look at the top three starters for each team. Yeah, it's been pointed out how anyone could have inherited a very talented young core, and after looking it over for a bit, decided that the team needed an absolute no. 1 starter. He saw Koji aging, and after recently watching the Royals playoffs success, he decided the team also needed an elite closer. His reputation had convinced Henry into hiring him, and so he then got Henry's blessing to easily outbid everyone else to get Price, and to deal several prospects to get Kimbrel, after he kicked the tires on Chapman. Genius moves? Hardly. His reputation, along with the young nucleus, convinced Henry to hire him, and follow along with whatever he wanted, even if it meant a huge sacrifice of money and young talent. Then came Pomeranz, and another very young prospect was lost. It was obvious he was gaming for a championship in the next couple of years, before those young talents he gave away had a chance to develop and prove him wrong. Price faltered, which led to Sale, and an even deeper cut of young talent. Aside from secondary reliever help, those have been his big moves so far.
I think he did convince the Yankees that he was willing to give up Chavis and Groome, to get Frazier and good relief help. With the help of the media, he got the the Yankees to give up a lot more than the open market was willing to give for those players the Yankees got. Just my personal opinion.
I truly believe, and pray, that he is up to something a lot bigger than what the Yankees got, to finish off the winning moves (especially after convincing Henry to invest a ton of money with Price, and give up several, good, young prospects) he has done.
He obviously is keeping Devers. With every passing day, I feel that it is obvious that a very short-term, mediocre at best, rental 3b is not a good move.
He's up to something bigger. At least I'm hoping he is.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 20, 2017 2:03:43 GMT -5
MLBTradeRumors: The source: Giants' front office.
The discussion included "Seriously? Why would we want to acquire a guy who has been, and projects to be, replacement level this year? We have no interest."
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Post by marrcus on Jul 20, 2017 4:29:50 GMT -5
He's up to something bigger. ------------------------------" If that happens I would guess it would have to be at 1B? DaveD isn't going to get a better 3b than Devers. I'm not getting any vibes on who that --1b-- could be but they can do better than Mitch. It's the only Po they can improve.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 20, 2017 5:31:28 GMT -5
He's up to something bigger. ------------------------------ "If that happens I would guess it would have to be at 1B? DaveD isn't going to get a better 3b than Devers. I'm not getting any vibes on who that --1b-- could be but they can do better than Mitch. It's the only Po they can improve. The only significant piece they could get is Jose Abreu at first base if they go that route. Alonso and Smoak aren't that much better then Mitch imo.
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Post by sparkygian on Jul 20, 2017 5:56:06 GMT -5
Abreu would be perfect. I've heard people talk about trading to improve the catcher position. Last year's playoff team had Ortiz, a red-hot Ramirez and Leon. Still the offense was stymied against playoff pitching. This team has none of those types of players right now. Nor does it have a single player who has been successful in the playoffs. So while maybe a catcher could be an option, along with 1b and DH; when I said something bigger, I wasn't necessarily saying that it was gonna be at just those positions. This team has a couple of other positions where there could still be an upgrade to a power bat, rather than just a good, semi-powerful contact hitter, which this team has plenty of. This team also has an abundance of good starting pitching, especially when I consider that playoffs usually come down to just the top three starters having consistent appearances. There's plenty of good names on this team that could be exchanged for a superstar player on a rebuilding team.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 20, 2017 6:25:34 GMT -5
He's up to something bigger. ------------------------------ "If that happens I would guess it would have to be at 1B? DaveD isn't going to get a better 3b than Devers. I'm not getting any vibes on who that --1b-- could be but they can do better than Mitch. It's the only Po they can improve. The only significant piece they could get is Jose Abreu at first base if they go that route. Alonso and Smoak aren't that much better then Mitch imo. Alonso is having a significantly better year than any of them. Also, if the Royals continue to slide, Hosmer (and Moose) might be available. YTD fWAR wRC+ of the rental market: Alonso 2.3 149 (but no history at anywhere near that) Abreau 1.7 124 pretty consistant Hosmer 1.4 126 and rising (missed most of last year in a multi-million dollar crash) Moreland 0.4 96 and fading
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2017 6:37:24 GMT -5
I personally feel that 'Dealin Dave' is up to something. He is, after all getting up in age, and I'm guessing, trying to cement his legacy with another championship. He knows damn well that his team is much, much, much more complete than the Yankees; look at the top three starters for each team. Yeah, it's been pointed out how anyone could have inherited a very talented young core, and after looking it over for a bit, decided that the team needed an absolute no. 1 starter. He saw Koji aging, and after recently watching the Royals playoffs success, he decided the team also needed an elite closer. His reputation had convinced Henry into hiring him, and so he then got Henry's blessing to easily outbid everyone else to get Price, and to deal several prospects to get Kimbrel, after he kicked the tires on Chapman. Genius moves? Hardly. His reputation, along with the young nucleus, convinced Henry to hire him, and follow along with whatever he wanted, even if it meant a huge sacrifice of money and young talent. Then came Pomeranz, and another very young prospect was lost. It was obvious he was gaming for a championship in the next couple of years, before those young talents he gave away had a chance to develop and prove him wrong. Price faltered, which led to Sale, and an even deeper cut of young talent. Aside from secondary reliever help, those have been his big moves so far. I think he did convince the Yankees that he was willing to give up Chavis and Groome, to get Frazier and good relief help. With the help of the media, he got the the Yankees to give up a lot more than the open market was willing to give for those players the Yankees got. Just my personal opinion. I truly believe, and pray, that he is up to something a lot bigger than what the Yankees got, to finish off the winning moves (especially after convincing Henry to invest a ton of money with Price, and give up several, good, young prospects) he has done. He obviously is keeping Devers. With every passing day, I feel that it is obvious that a very short-term, mediocre at best, rental 3b is not a good move. He's up to something bigger. At least I'm hoping he is. I'd be surprised if Dombrowski was up to something bigger. He doesn't have the quality and quantity to deal from as he has before. A lot of the stock has been depleted. If he's not giving up Devers or Groome then it's hard to see how he gets a huge impact player. At this point I do believe in the Nunez/Strickland rumors. Nunez is a big step down from Todd Frazier, but I think what happened was that the White Sox really wanted two things - to get rid of Robertson's contract and actually get a quality prospect - something they weren't going to get by dealing Frazier all by himself, so they packaged them together basically taking the Red Sox out of the equation as the Red Sox didn't have the depth or quality to match the prospect the Yankees gave the ChiSox. Thwarted from getting Frazier and seeing Devers not exactly overwhelmed by AAA pitching, Dombrowski can probably see that the need for a 3b is probably lessened. Now they need an insurance policy who can also play SS, given Xander's physical issues. Now the big need turns to relief help. So now the question Dombrowski has is does he have enough to get Strickland who has service time available or does he pay lesser for a rental like Neshek or Reed? Nunez by himself wouldn't cost much. It might be scary to see what Strickland fetches. He is not having anywhere near as good a year as Kahnle is having - the FIP is much higher, but he has a longer track record of being effective. So that's the question Dave is probably weighing. My guess is he will give up the talent to get Strickland, although I hope it's not too much - I don't like the way his BB/9 are trending.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 20, 2017 6:43:19 GMT -5
Yeah I pretty much assumed that Alonso was having a career year and should come back to earth. Maybe he doesn't and he keeps up his awesome production, but who knows?
I wouldn't mind Hosmer as a rental if he were available and could be had for cheap.
Abreu is the most consistent on the list and has the most team control.
Moreland has kind of run his course here though. He's getting worse as the season goes along and he's giving the Sox no production at a position where they should be getting production from and imo they should look to make a change. This should be the one area the Sox should look to upgrade if they just want to keep the seat warm for Devers at third base later in the season.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 20, 2017 7:09:12 GMT -5
Alonso has completely changed his batted ball profile. He isn't getting lucky really. You'd have to hope he doesn't fall out of his new mechanics and revert to his old ones, but the dude is raking.
I don't think the White Sox trade Abreu. I think they'll want him as a mentor for Moncada and Jimenez. He may be worth more to them than he is in trade.
The price may be too steep, but the Giants could surprise people and trade Brandon Belt too.
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Post by pedrosdaddy on Jul 20, 2017 9:14:42 GMT -5
Most specifically "anyone capable of using a telephone could pull it off" you realize that the white Sox originally asked for Betts or AB in SALE talks last year right? And DD said no? Im supposed to be impressed that he didn't include an mvp candidate and their 1st rd pick who was being talked about as a top 5 prospect in baseball?
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Post by pedrosdaddy on Jul 20, 2017 9:52:25 GMT -5
Most specifically "anyone capable of using a telephone could pull it off" you realize that the white Sox originally asked for Betts or AB in SALE talks last year right? And DD said no? Why are you trying to confuse him with facts? how exactly am i being confused? I dont think hes a horrible gm, i just dont feel like hes done a single thing that nearly any other person could have done with the resources he had at his disposal. Not trading away 2 major league ready stars/superstars isnt a difficult thing to do.
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