2017 Trade Deadline Thread (Red Sox discussion)

Abreu would put the Sox over the luxury tax limit and clean out the system. Hard to imagine they wouldn't demand Devers, but if it didn't that deal would include Groome, Chavis, and Travis and more you'd think?

Steamer has him at a 103 wRC+ the rest of the year. It would be far more cost effective to just get someone like Freese or Flores/Cabrera IMO. Kinsler gets a lot of value from playing 2B.

“@jeffpassan: Sources: OF Brayan Hernandez is the top prospect heading from Seattle to Miami. Big bonus baby a few years back, high ceiling, only 19.”

If he played only 3B going forward he would be above replacement level.  His D at 2B, SS and OF has killed his war.  Not that he is great at 3B, but it is his best position by a mile.  If the cost is right it makes sense.

I mentioned this a while back... But Neil Walker looks like an ideal trade target. He's been playing 3B during his AAA rehab and it's reported that he could be back with the Mets by Monday. He's playing on his 1 year QO contract so the Sox would likely have to send back a guy like Chris Young back in order to stay under the luxury tax, but they might have an in house replacement with Brentz.

He's been a -11 R/150 defender at 3B and projects to have a 94 wRC+ at the position, which is also below average.

He's not as good as Lin, whose bat is comparable* and is a plus defender. End of discussion.

*Clay Davenport has his MLE from Portland as a .273 EqA and his Sox EqA at .271. Nunez has been .267.

Here's a fact that no one appears to have noticed: we already traded for a dominant (potential) 8th-inning guy, back on June 25th. That's when Matt Barnes traded his old mechanics for Andrew Miller's.

Stat Pre Post
G 34 10
IP 32.2 12.2
SIERA 3.64 2.60
xFIP 3.49 2.58
FIP 3.54 1.87
ERA 4.13 0.71
xFIP- 80 59
FIP- 82 43
ERA- 90 16
Hard .333 .154
LD .272 .120
Pull .309 .385
GB .469 .680
PU .037 .040
BABIP .308 .154
HR/FB .143 .000
aWPA/60 0.12 3.05
aWPA/60 is Win Probability Added divided by average Leverage Index, per 60 appearances. The current MLB leader board:

Name         aW
Chad Green 3.97
Miguel Castro 3.36
Kenley Jansen 3.22
Erasmo Ramirez 3.03
Chris Rusin 2.99
Blaine Boyer 2.79
Andrew Miller 2.74
Craig Kimbrel 2.58
His xFIP- would be tied for 9th (with Miller) in MLB among 220 relievers with 20 or more IP. SIERA would be 17th. (Kimbrel leads in both.)

But he's also combined those great peripherals with tremendous batted ball results. To put the .154 Hard% in perspective, Betances leads MLB with .192. The LD% would rank 9th, and the GB% would rank 5th.

A relief depth chart:

Kimbrel
Barnes
(Smith?)
Kelly
Abad, Hembree, Boyer. All have aWPA/60 way better than their numbers warrant (they rank 23rd, 80th, and 6th), which suggests that Farrell is disproportionately using them in high leverage situations against hitters they match up well against.

If Smith doesn't come back, Robbie Scott can be the 7th man, and then you still have Workman (who seems plenty good enough for most MLB pens), Maddox, Taylor, and Martin in AAA, plus Velazquez, Johnson, and Beeks as possible long men.

The one move I'd explore is dealing Hembree and Dalbec for the best LHR (with limited team control left) that might fetch.

And if Smith comes back, they also have enough depth to deal Boyer if they feel a need to clear a roster spot for Scott to get better R/L balance.

I don't see how you can get that analysis from Marrero's actual performance to date. It's Marerro they kept up, not Lin. Me thinks you are viewing this through rose colored glasses. Better than Pablo, I'll give you but he's replacement level unless you do some pretty creative accounting.

Marrero through 55 games fWAR 0.00000 wRC+ 47

Brock Holt through 12 games fWAR -.2 wRC+ 37
Holt last year 94 games fWAR .2 wRC+ 86

that black hole and third base is neither's best position. Marrero doesn't hit enough to be a second division shortstop let alone third baseman and Holt is a versatile replacement level player who is not likely to be tendered. Devers is the obvious answer and needed a lot more than your projections imply.

If it were not a "black f---ing hole", the Sox would not be dominating the sports cycle trying to close it. We are making do. This site is not just for pompous ultra stat geeks with highly corrective lenses. Perhaps I mistook your tone.

.....and I don't believe Johnson can get his velo much higher anyway. When drafted it was reported that he could goose it to 94 or so. But even in high stress situations, I don't recall anything greater than 90.

I also don't think Travis has shown enough to prove that he'll be the answer next year.  I'd really like to see Brentz get some chances in September over Chris Young and possibly move him to 1B next year if he keeps hitting for power.  Where is our Justin Smoak dammit?